BCS 1 and 2

#26
#26
The only thing that matters is who is ranked #1 and #2. However that happens is irrelevant.
 
#27
#27
The fact that Southern Cal dropped from 0.9430 points last week to 0.7152 pts this week tells me that the loser of the OSU-Mich game will drop.

There is precedent for a one week push at the end of the season after a big win. In 2001, when #6 Tennessee beat #2 Florida, the Vols jumped to #2 in the BCS over other 1-loss teams. That includes Oregon and Nebraska.

Here we are in 2006 and if the Vols beat LSU and at Arkansas, they will surely be in the top 5 of the BCS. I've crunched some numbers and think it is almost a certainty if the Vols win. Therefore, a big win over a team like a top five 11-1 Auburn in the SECCG could definately catapult a 12-1 Tennessee team into the BCSCG.
 
#28
#28
allvol said:
Here we are in 2006 and if the Vols beat LSU and at Arkansas, they will surely be in the top 5 of the BCS. I've crunched some numbers and think it is almost a certainty if the Vols win. Therefore, a big win over a team like a top five 11-1 Auburn in the SECCG could definately catapult a 12-1 Tennessee team into the BCSCG.
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Interesting. So if TN wins out, and SC or VANDY beat FL, we could play for the whole thing?

I don't the odds of both of things happening, but it isn't outlandish. I think SC -- playing better and better with Newton at QB -- can give FL and their semi-stagnant offense a run for their money.
 
#29
#29
VolinArizona said:
It would most likely mean that Cal won their conference, while Tennessee did not.
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There should be a rule that if you get blown out at any time during the season, you are not allowed to be mentioned in any sentence that ends in "National Championship Game." That would affect Cal, Arkansas, and yes, even the mighty Irish.


Liper said:
Interesting. So if TN wins out, and SC or VANDY beat FL, we could play for the whole thing?
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Yes, if UT wins out, and Florida loses (they play FSU, too, you know,) there is a remote possibility of getting to the championship game. It would help if:

1. The Thursday night game is a blowout, and the winner loses before the end of the season.

2. ND, Cal, USC, Auburn, and Texas all lose another game.

3. The OSU/Michigan game is a blowout.

4. We win impressively at Arkansas, Vandy, and at home against Kentucky.
 
#30
#30
There is less of a gap between #3 WVU and #11 Tennessee than there is between #2 Michigan and #3 WVU. If the Vols win the next 2 games, they will jump up over Cal, Southern Cal, Notre Dame, and the WVU/Louisville Loser. If Florida loses that not only helps the Vols get into the SECCG, but also moves them up a spot in the BCS. Texas will be difficult to overcome, but they are ranked lower than the Vols in the computers and the gap will get bigger in the next 2 games. If the Vols are just behind Texas in the human polls, they should be higher in the BCS due to computer rank. Same for Auburn after they play another bad team this week. Auburn's avg computer rank has already dropped from 5.25 to 8.0 the past 2 weeks. That leaves 1. OSU, 2. Mich, 3. WVU/Louisville, 4. Tennessee, 5. Texas, 6. Auburn. Texas and Tennessee may be flipped depending upon the computers.... but the Vols should be in the top 5 in 2 weeks should they win.

The whole season is left in the Big East as Louisville, WVU, Rutgers, and Pitt all still have to play each other (Rutgers just beat Pitt last week).

Texas looks very beatable the past 2 weeks. They still have to play Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and the Big XII title game (if A&M doesn't beat them).
 
#33
#33
cotton said:
Yes, if UT wins out, and Florida loses (they play FSU, too, you know,) there is a remote possibility of getting to the championship game. It would help if:

1. The Thursday night game is a blowout, and the winner loses before the end of the season.

2. ND, Cal, USC, Auburn, and Texas all lose another game.

3. The OSU/Michigan game is a blowout.

4. We win impressively at Arkansas, Vandy, and at home against Kentucky.
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Here are my responses:

1. Does not have to be a blowout. 1-loss Big East teams will not be ranked higher than the Vols. They'll drop like a rock once they lose.

2. The Vols are already higher than ND, Cal, and USC in the human polls. They'll jump over all 3 in the BCS in 2 weeks should the Vols win. They all don't really need to lose but it would be nice. USC plays both ND and Cal so its possible that 2 of them could get a loss. USC drop more this week in the computers for playing #104 Stanford. But they could rebound with Oregon, Cal, ND, and UCLA. I don't see them winning all of those games.

3. History shows if you lose you drop. Unless the loser moves up the next 2 weeks after the game due to other teams higher losing, you lose and you are almost certainly out.

4. Any win against Arkansas on the road is good. The last 2 games against Vandy and Kentucky need to be impressive. However, the computers have both of those teams ranked higher than they've been in quite some time.... so the game itself won't hurt the Vols in the computers. Kentucky is ranked higher than Miami and Florida State and Vanderbilt is close behind those 2 as well.
 
#34
#34
The automatic qualification standards are not the same for all teams. The teams are divided into four groups: automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac Ten, SEC), non-automatic qualifying conferences (C-USA, MAC, Mtn West, Sun Belt, WAC), Notre Dame, and other independents.


There are ten spots in the five BCS bowl games (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar and the title game). Under no circumstance may a conference place more than two teams in the BCS games. With that in mind, the following teams automatically qualify for one of those spots. (In order of preference. All ranking criteria refer to the final BCS standings unless otherwise noted.)
  1. The top two teams in the rankings. Those teams are assigned to the title game.
  2. AQ conference champions, regardless of ranking. Exception: If the #1 and #2 teams are from the same conference and neither is the champion, then the champion of that conference will not participate in the BCS.
  3. The highest-rated champion of a non-AQ conference if it either ranks in the top 12 or is ranked in the top 16 and also ranked ahead of one of the champions of an AQ conference.
  4. Notre Dame, if it finishes in the top eight.
  5. The #3 team, if it is a member of an AQ conference and there is still an open spot.
  6. The #4 team, if it is a member of an AQ conference and there is still an open spot.
If there are still open spots after all that, then any team can be selected by a BCS bowl if it:

Has 9 wins against I-A opponents, and is rated in the top 14 of the BCS standings, or
Is a non-AQ conference champion and meets the qualification standard in #3, but was not the highest-rated team to do so.



Once every four years, a team may count a win against a I-AA opponent toward the nine needed for BCS-eligibility. So far, no one has used that exception.

Note that for independents not named Notre Dame, the only way to automatically qualify is to finish #1 or #2.
Also, the #3 provision only applies to the champions of the non-AQ leagues. That means, for example, if TCU were to finish 11-1, but have that loss be to Utah, which is 8-4 overall, but 8-0 in Mtn West play, then TCU could not automatically qualify under rule #3 no matter how high it is ranked.
 
#36
#36
as to osu vs mich in bcs championship...highly unlikely due to their regular season game being played late in season. had they played second,third, fourth week, very very probable. if florida wins sec championship game they go over undefeated wvir or louis. i would hate to see fla go, still feel we got the purple weiner on the roughing passer call that negated int td. plus i despise fla.
 
#37
#37
allvol said:
Here are my responses:

1. Does not have to be a blowout. 1-loss Big East teams will not be ranked higher than the Vols. They'll drop like a rock once they lose.

2. The Vols are already higher than ND, Cal, and USC in the human polls. They'll jump over all 3 in the BCS in 2 weeks should the Vols win. They all don't really need to lose but it would be nice. USC plays both ND and Cal so its possible that 2 of them could get a loss. USC drop more this week in the computers for playing #104 Stanford. But they could rebound with Oregon, Cal, ND, and UCLA. I don't see them winning all of those games.

3. History shows if you lose you drop. Unless the loser moves up the next 2 weeks after the game due to other teams higher losing, you lose and you are almost certainly out.

4. Any win against Arkansas on the road is good. The last 2 games against Vandy and Kentucky need to be impressive. However, the computers have both of those teams ranked higher than they've been in quite some time.... so the game itself won't hurt the Vols in the computers. Kentucky is ranked higher than Miami and Florida State and Vanderbilt is close behind those 2 as well.
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I didn't say that all of those points were necessary, but they would all help. And with the black magic that is today's BCS, a little "path clearing" couldn't hurt.

The things that worry me are if:

1. A tight ball game keeps the Big East 2nd place finisher ranked high in the voting polls. Both teams' SOS gets much better for the computers after this game.

2. ND, Cal, and USC are all ranked above UT now, and they will get SOS bumps by playing each other (Cal-USC, ND-USC, and USC-Oregon, for good measure.) We have been griping about Cal's ranking for months. I don't trust the system to jump us over any of those teams in the last week of the season when it hasn't done so all year.

3. I am not confident that the loser will drop behind us unless they drop behind us in the voting polls, and that might not happen in a close game. It would help if they dropped several spots behind us.

4. Again, an impressive win at Arkansas might score us points in the voting polls that could help us jump the teams in #2 or #3.
 
#38
#38
allvol said:
The automatic qualification standards are not the same for all teams. The teams are divided into four groups: automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac Ten, SEC), non-automatic qualifying conferences (C-USA, MAC, Mtn West, Sun Belt, WAC), Notre Dame, and other independents.


There are ten spots in the five BCS bowl games (Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar and the title game). Under no circumstance may a conference place more than two teams in the BCS games. With that in mind, the following teams automatically qualify for one of those spots. (In order of preference. All ranking criteria refer to the final BCS standings unless otherwise noted.)
  1. The top two teams in the rankings. Those teams are assigned to the title game.
  2. AQ conference champions, regardless of ranking. Exception: If the #1 and #2 teams are from the same conference and neither is the champion, then the champion of that conference will not participate in the BCS.
  3. The highest-rated champion of a non-AQ conference if it either ranks in the top 12 or is ranked in the top 16 and also ranked ahead of one of the champions of an AQ conference.
  4. Notre Dame, if it finishes in the top eight.
  5. The #3 team, if it is a member of an AQ conference and there is still an open spot.
  6. The #4 team, if it is a member of an AQ conference and there is still an open spot.
If there are still open spots after all that, then any team can be selected by a BCS bowl if it:

Has 9 wins against I-A opponents, and is rated in the top 14 of the BCS standings, or
Is a non-AQ conference champion and meets the qualification standard in #3, but was not the highest-rated team to do so.



Once every four years, a team may count a win against a I-AA opponent toward the nine needed for BCS-eligibility. So far, no one has used that exception.

Note that for independents not named Notre Dame, the only way to automatically qualify is to finish #1 or #2.
Also, the #3 provision only applies to the champions of the non-AQ leagues. That means, for example, if TCU were to finish 11-1, but have that loss be to Utah, which is 8-4 overall, but 8-0 in Mtn West play, then TCU could not automatically qualify under rule #3 no matter how high it is ranked.
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So what if Fla loses to Fsu plays inthe sec championship game and wins. While UT wins out and the people that need to lose to put UT #2 lose. Who then goes to the championship game?
 
#39
#39
cotton said:
I didn't say that all of those points were necessary, but they would all help. And with the black magic that is today's BCS, a little "path clearing" couldn't hurt.

The things that worry me are if:

1. A tight ball game keeps the Big East 2nd place finisher ranked high in the voting polls. Both teams' SOS gets much better for the computers after this game.

2. ND, Cal, and USC are all ranked above UT now, and they will get SOS bumps by playing each other (Cal-USC, ND-USC, and USC-Oregon, for good measure.) We have been griping about Cal's ranking for months. I don't trust the system to jump us over any of those teams in the last week of the season when it hasn't done so all year.

3. I am not confident that the loser will drop behind us unless they drop behind us in the voting polls, and that might not happen in a close game. It would help if they dropped several spots behind us.

4. Again, an impressive win at Arkansas might score us points in the voting polls that could help us jump the teams in #2 or #3.
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1. Both teams SOS is so bad already, it really won't help out much. The computers love undefeated teams so when one of the lower tiered teams finally loses, they drop like a rock.

2. Don't get the BCS and the human polls confused. Yes, its very hard to move over teams in the human polls. That is why the Vols are sitting good at #8. USC, ND, and Cal are #9 - #11.... so the Vols are higher and won't be jumped by any of these teams if the Vols continue to win. The computers (1/3 of BCS formula) don't follow the same rules. If the Vols beat a ranked LSU team this week, and then on the road (computers love road wins) against a top 10 (in computers) Arkansas, the Vols will jump from a computer avg of 9.5 to somewhere in the top 5. That will be enough to jump over USC, ND, Cal, Auburn, and maybe even Texas in the BCS in the next 2 weeks (not at the end of the season).

3. If Tennessee beats LSU, they'll be ranked higher than the loser of the WVU-Louisville game. USC is at #9 behind Tennessee in the human polls after their loss. They dropped from #3 to #9 in human polls.

4. Agreed, an impressive win over Arkansas will help.
 
#40
#40
utchatt said:
So what if Fla loses to Fsu plays inthe sec championship game and wins. While UT wins out and the people that need to lose to put UT #2 lose. Who then goes to the championship game?
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#1 and #2 go to the BCS title game period. If the Vols are #1 or #2, they'll be in the BCS title game. If Florida wins the SECCG, they'll be in the BCS too.

The odd part is that if Tennessee and Auburn are #1 and #2 (and neither plays in the SECCG), even if Florida wins the SECCG, the Gators are left out any of the BCS games.
 
#41
#41
allvol said:
1. Both teams SOS is so bad already, it really won't help out much. The computers love undefeated teams so when one of the lower tiered teams finally loses, they drop like a rock.

2. Don't get the BCS and the human polls confused. Yes, its very hard to move over teams in the human polls. That is why the Vols are sitting good at #8. USC, ND, and Cal are #9 - #11.... so the Vols are higher and won't be jumped by any of these teams if the Vols continue to win. The computers (1/3 of BCS formula) don't follow the same rules. If the Vols beat a ranked LSU team this week, and then on the road (computers love road wins) against a top 10 (in computers) Arkansas, the Vols will jump from a computer avg of 9.5 to somewhere in the top 5. That will be enough to jump over USC, ND, Cal, Auburn, and maybe even Texas in the BCS in the next 2 weeks (not at the end of the season).

3. If Tennessee beats LSU, they'll be ranked higher than the loser of the WVU-Louisville game. USC is at #9 behind Tennessee in the human polls after their loss. They dropped from #3 to #9 in human polls.

4. Agreed, an impressive win over Arkansas will help.
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SOS was taken out of the equation. It doesn't matter anymore.
 
#42
#42
It's doubtful that UF or AU is going to lose another game and those teams will have a rematch in the SECCG unless Arky wins out. If Arky wins out, it means the Vols have 2 losses and no shot at a BCS invite. A 12-1, SEC Champ. UF gets to the big game ahead of an 11-1 UT. Therefore, the only question worth asking is whether an 11-1 UT can leap past a 12-1, SEC Champ. AU? I seriously doubt it. The Vols only argument would be strength of schedule, but I don't see that it holds up. In conference, UT could say they beat Arky (who beat AU) and AU would say they beat UF (who beat UT) twice. Whatever minimal advantage AU might get from that would probably be negated by having MissSt in their division. Otherwise, you're only looking at o.o.c. games.

UT's win over Memphis and AU's win over Buffalo pretty much cancel one another out. Yes, I think Conf. USA is a little better than the MAC most years. However, both schools are now 1-7 and play in non-BCS D1A conferences. Also, each school has limited chances for further victories. Memphis has a shot against Central Fl and that's about it. Buffalo will get a shot for win number two against Akron.

UT beat Marshall. AU beat Tulane. Neither school is doing much in C-USA. When these schools play each other this Sat. it will probably determine which one finishes 4-8 and which one finishes 3-9. Again, not enough difference to matter.

UT beat AF. AU will beat Arky. St. Stack up a W over a probable 6-6 Sun Belt team and a likely 4-8 Mid Western Conf. team. Probably a slight edge to AU on this one but not much of one.

Up to now I do not see anything that would merit UT leaping AU so it all comes down to UT's win over Cal vs. AU's win over Wash. St. Cal should finish 11-1 or 10-2 (depends on the USC game), while Wash. St. should finish 9-3 or 8-4 (depends on AZ St game). Both teams are currently ranked in the BCS Top 25. Wash. St. could move well into the coaches' poll if they win out. Cal could move up a couple of spots with a win over USC, but needs some very good teams to lose if it's going to make a big jump in the poll.

I don't have nearly sufficient knowledge of the BCS formula to say whether whatever difference there is between Cal and Wash. St. at the end of the season will be enough to move UT past AU. I can't really imagine it happening, but if someone can provide I credible scenario I'm all ears (eyes).
 
#45
#45
VolunteerHillbilly said:
It's doubtful that UF or AU is going to lose another game and those teams will have a rematch in the SECCG unless Arky wins out. If Arky wins out, it means the Vols have 2 losses and no shot at a BCS invite. A 12-1, SEC Champ. UF gets to the big game ahead of an 11-1 UT. Therefore, the only question worth asking is whether an 11-1 UT can leap past a 12-1, SEC Champ. AU? I seriously doubt it. The Vols only argument would be strength of schedule, but I don't see that it holds up. In conference, UT could say they beat Arky (who beat AU) and AU would say they beat UF (who beat UT) twice. Whatever minimal advantage AU might get from that would probably be negated by having MissSt in their division. Otherwise, you're only looking at o.o.c. games.

UT's win over Memphis and AU's win over Buffalo pretty much cancel one another out. Yes, I think Conf. USA is a little better than the MAC most years. However, both schools are now 1-7 and play in non-BCS D1A conferences. Also, each school has limited chances for further victories. Memphis has a shot against Central Fl and that's about it. Buffalo will get a shot for win number two against Akron.

UT beat Marshall. AU beat Tulane. Neither school is doing much in C-USA. When these schools play each other this Sat. it will probably determine which one finishes 4-8 and which one finishes 3-9. Again, not enough difference to matter.

UT beat AF. AU will beat Arky. St. Stack up a W over a probable 6-6 Sun Belt team and a likely 4-8 Mid Western Conf. team. Probably a slight edge to AU on this one but not much of one.

Up to now I do not see anything that would merit UT leaping AU so it all comes down to UT's win over Cal vs. AU's win over Wash. St. Cal should finish 11-1 or 10-2 (depends on the USC game), while Wash. St. should finish 9-3 or 8-4 (depends on AZ St game). Both teams are currently ranked in the BCS Top 25. Wash. St. could move well into the coaches' poll if they win out. Cal could move up a couple of spots with a win over USC, but needs some very good teams to lose if it's going to make a big jump in the poll.

I don't have nearly sufficient knowledge of the BCS formula to say whether whatever difference there is between Cal and Wash. St. at the end of the season will be enough to move UT past AU. I can't really imagine it happening, but if someone can provide I credible scenario I'm all ears (eyes).
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If Tennessee beats Arkansas and then Arkansas wins out, Auburn still won't go to the SECCG. Arkansas holds the head-to-head tie-break and is currently undefeated in the SEC. Therefore, Florida would be playing a 10-2 Arkansas team.

Here are the non-common opponents between Auburn and Tennessee (and computer avg for each opp)

Auburn
-------
17 Washington St
82 Tulane
81 Ole Miss
85 Arkansas St
93 Miss State
116 Buffalo
average computer rank = 79

Tennessee
----------
3 California
47 Kentucky
66 Vanderbilt
71 Air Force
96 Marshall
113 Memphis
average computer rank = 66

In my opinion, Tennessee has played a better schedule than Auburn. However, that is not the point. If Auburn wins the SECCG and is 12-1, there is no way Tennessee would be ranked higher. Regardless of how the computers look at schedules, 12-of-13 is a higher winning pct than 11-of-12 and that carries alot of weight in the computers.
 
#46
#46
allvol said:
#1 and #2 go to the BCS title game period. If the Vols are #1 or #2, they'll be in the BCS title game. If Florida wins the SECCG, they'll be in the BCS too.

The odd part is that if Tennessee and Auburn are #1 and #2 (and neither plays in the SECCG), even if Florida wins the SECCG, the Gators are left out any of the BCS games.[/quote]


Huh? What? We can win the SECCG and not get a bid to a BCS game? I thought the conference champions from the AQ conferences were guaranteed in (see, e.g. FSU despite 4 losses last year).
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#47
#47
allvol said:
Every computer ranking still has its own SOS. That is the reason the separate SOS was taken out. They felt it was redundant.
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I dont agree with taking SOS out of the BCS. The coaches poll and ap polls dont have SOS as a factor and they carry more weight in the BCS. So in some polls it has no influence. Which is one of the reasons the SEC gets the shaft from the BCS.
 
#48
#48
lawgator1 said:
allvol said:
#1 and #2 go to the BCS title game period. If the Vols are #1 or #2, they'll be in the BCS title game. If Florida wins the SECCG, they'll be in the BCS too.

The odd part is that if Tennessee and Auburn are #1 and #2 (and neither plays in the SECCG), even if Florida wins the SECCG, the Gators are left out any of the BCS games.
Click to expand...


Huh? What? We can win the SECCG and not get a bid to a BCS game? I thought the conference champions from the AQ conferences were guaranteed in (see, e.g. FSU despite 4 losses last year).
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True, champions from AQ conferences get in automatically, unless the scenario above presents itself. #1 and #2 get in first. That trumps all else. One of the next rules is that 1 conference can't have more than 2 teams in BCS games. Therefore, if Tennessee and Auburn play for the BCS title, then even if Florida wins the SECCG they get left out.
 
#49
#49
oklavol said:
I dont agree with taking SOS out of the BCS. The coaches poll and ap polls dont have SOS as a factor and they carry more weight in the BCS. So in some polls it has no influence. Which is one of the reasons the SEC gets the shaft from the BCS.
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You really can't be this frustrating in real life? You're telling me that NONE of the voters in the human polls consider the strength of a team's schedule?

Granted, I feel the BCS should have it's own SOS part of the equation, but to say A) It doesn't exist and B) Humans don't take it into consideration - is ignorant.
 
#50
#50
VolinArizona said:
"Hi, I'm Liper. I kill any and all conversations because I have no opinions. Thank you."
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Funny. The question at hand was whether or not a team had to be a conference champion to play for the NC. That is not based on someone's opinion. It's either true or it's not.
 
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