BCS Speculation

#26
#26
TrueOrange said:
That's the fault of the 2 human poll's fault more than anything else, and that has really always been the case. The problem there is they pretty much rank with only a memory length of only about the current week and the one before it.


If you hate something about this system, that's where it should be directed.
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True.

Although it happens in every sport I guess. It's always best to fail early and make correction rather to fail late and have nothing to correct for. Bama is pretty much screwed now (unless others lose).
 
#27
#27
05_never_again said:
If that happens, it'd probably be Alabama. They'd be the best one-loss team. Can you imagine that? An Alabama/Auburn BCSCG?
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Media outlets would love it.

Rematch of Iron bowl.
Instate battle.
The last 4 NC between these two schools.
A rebirth of AU.
Threepeat for Bama?
McCarron legacy.

I could go on.
 
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#28
#28
05_never_again said:
My biggest issue with the human polls is that they are fundamentally flawed because preseason rankings factor into where a team is placed throughout the season.

A team that is overrated in the preseason and goes on to lose games will hang around in the top 25 for longer, ultimately finishing higher than they otherwise would have.
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I understand that issue as well. (compare say how long it took Duke to get in the rankings; they didn't appear until they were 9-2).

My biggest issues with them are kind of the human error in that:

1) their rankings are heavily influenced by a team's previous reputation. If a team is established (a big name school, a team that's had several great seasons in a row, a team that's won multiple national championships in its past) the voters will give it preference when ranking. They'll easily push a 9-0 Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, etc, much higher, even quicker than they will a 9-0 team that's a Missouri, a Baylor, or a team that had a poor previous season.

2) The human polls are very short term memory. It's almost as if they can't remember past the current weekend that's being ranked, maybe at most the week before that as well. And at that, more emphasis is put on that "Team A lost this week and Team B didn't" than anything else. You see it the most with their ranking teams on bye during a conference championship game, where the losing team - due to having played an extra game that week - will even drop below teams it had beaten (the best example I can think of is 2001 Tennessee and 2007 Missouri, the latter at 12-2 fell below a Kansas team they beat pretty soundly the week before).

But you'll also see it in situations where teams are ranked close/where a loss makes them have the same record, but because Team A lost the last week, they'll jump Team B (even if Team A beat Team B).
 
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#29
#29
LittleCat said:
True.

Although it happens in every sport I guess. It's always best to fail early and make correction rather to fail late and have nothing to correct for. Bama is pretty much screwed now (unless others lose).
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Not really. This is the only sport where post season play is determined by people's opinions ranking teams each week.
 
#30
#30
TrueOrange said:
Not really. This is the only sport where post season play is determined by people's opinions ranking teams each week.
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Wasn't neccasarily just talking about the rankings. Just saying losing late in any sport is a killer. Obvious point is obvious I guess.
 
#31
#31
LittleCat said:
What's the BCS ranking look like Monday?

What if Auburn loses, FSU loses, OSU loses. Those teams should get passed by a one loss Mizzou.

But would a one loss Bama vs a one loss Mizzou be tough to decide?

And could Mizzou get absolutely robbed and somehow miss out?

I honestly don't know. This is where I'd love to some kind of playoff. So many good teams with losses to other top teams.
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If Missouri won the conference championship, it would most likely get the nod. If both were at 1-loss and the two undefeateds lost, you would most likely see a scenario where two teams from the same conference played (ala LSU-Alabama in 2011) or you might see a team like Oklahoma State or someone come into play (depending on whether Alabama fell before or after them)

Now, if we were talking about a BCS at-large bid and it were between a higher ranked one-loss Missouri and a one-loss Alabama, then yes, Missouri would get screwed in favor of Alabama there due to the Tide having a larger fan base, drawing a better crowd, being a better sale, being a better TV draw, etc.
 
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#32
#32
LittleCat said:
It's obvious (at least to me) that a one loss Mizzou is weaker than a one loss Bama. But because Bama lost so late, they are automatically moved down.

Similarly, if Mizzou loses along with FSU and OSU...then Auburn is obviously in. But how do you decide between OSU/FSU/Bama? BCS would say Bama. But I'm not so sure.
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Human polls would likely drop OSU and FSU behind Bama mainly because those two teams would have lost that weekend while Bama, by not playing, had not (and the two would have lost to non-top 5 teams…which really only factors in as a point in that it would lessen the amounts either dropped)
 
#33
#33
I don't care. As long as it's not OSU or Bama.

Wouldn't mind seeing Mizzou in there vs FSU.
 
#35
#35
ESPN seems to be pushing for the following top 5 through Sportscenter tonight:

1) FSU
2) OSU
3) Auburn
4) Alabama
5) Missouri
 
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#37
#37
Insunseri said:
Especially urban cryer. The way he's been whining about the BCS not being fair. I would love it.
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In fairness to him what do you expect him to do? It's his job to tout his team. In years past, the team in the three spot with any sort of claim has always complained.
 
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#39
#39
Well, since SoS means very little as the remaining teams have horrible SoS than it should be Northern Illinois. Alabama is not even the best team in their division let alone the conference, again. If Ohio St. and Florida State losses than it should be Miz/Auburn v. N. Illinois. I know... SoS only means something when you come from a small conference. Alabama is 2nd in their division and 3rd in the SEC.

Exactly how many do overs does Alabama need to get? They lost... they are not the top team in the SEC let alone the nation.
 
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#40
#40
LSU-SIU said:
Well, since SoS means very little as the remaining teams have horrible SoS than it should be Northern Illinois. Alabama is not even the best team in their division let alone the conference, again. If Ohio St. and Florida State losses than it should be Miz/Auburn v. N. Illinois. I know... SoS only means something when you come from a small conference. Alabama is 2nd in their division and 3rd in the SEC.

Exactly how many do overs does Alabama need to get? They lost... they are not the top team in the SEC let alone the nation.
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If Bama gets another do over the entire nation should seriously demand some sort of investigation into that program and the Saban/Emmert/Slive relationships.
 
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#41
#41
rjd970 said:
If Bama gets another do over the entire nation should seriously demand some sort of investigation into that program and the Saban/Emmert/Slive relationships.
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Well, the theme is you get an easy schedule... in the 40-90 range in the SoS. I mean LSU would have lost only 1 game if you remove Mississippi and Georgia and they still would have probably had a higher SoS than all of these teams.

SoS only means something when they are trying to eliminate the Boise States of the world. It's pure corruption, which is what Boise State said.

Alabama has the worse or close to the worse SoS in the SEC, they can't win their division, again, yet they will probably get a BCS game.
 
#44
#44
polkalumn01 said:
If Mizzou beat em Bama would def be the best one loss team and Auburn the best two loss team.
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Oklahoma St. say hi with a better SoS and Northern Illinois has zero loses. If Bama were any other school and lost the last game of the year... they would be ranked in the 6-8 range.

1.) Florida St.
2.) Ohio St.
3.) Northern Illinois
4.) Missouri
5.) Auburn
6.) Oklahoma State
7.) Alabama
8.) Michigan State
9.) Baylor

None of the top ranked teams have a tough schedule... the key is schedule cupcakes and have a cup cake schedule + being in a major conference.
 
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#45
#45
LSU-SIU said:
Well, the theme is you get an easy schedule... in the 40-90 range in the SoS. I mean LSU would have lost only 1 game if you remove Mississippi and Georgia and they still would have probably had a higher SoS than all of these teams.

SoS only means something when they are trying to eliminate the Boise States of the world. It's pure corruption, which is what Boise State said.

Alabama has the worse or close to the worse SoS in the SEC, they can't win their division, again, yet they will probably get a BCS game.
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Please explain to me how LSU has such a tough schedule. As we speak LSU has only played 3 teams who are currently ranked. LSU is 2-1 against those 3 teams. UA has played 3 teams who are currently ranked UA is 2-1. LSU has 2 losses against unranked teams, just because they got beat does not make them tough. And if aTm drop only 2 ranked teams for LSU.

We played 6 common opponents in conference.

UA 5-1
LSU 5-1
UA beat LSU head to Head

LSU lost to Ole Miss UA lost to AU

We played 2 crossover games. UA played UT and UK and LSU played UF and UGA. None of the 4 are ranked and only UGA has a winning record. So edge there goes to LSU.

But we played 4 OOC games.
LSU played TCU 4-8, UAB 2-10, Kent State 4-8, Furman 8-5

UA played VT 8-4, GA State 0-10 , Col St. 7-6, UTC 8-4(who by the way conference champs over Furman).

Edge goes to UA especially since TCU was horrible this year.

So at best if UA had one of the easiest schedules in the conference LSU is with us hand in hand.

UT probably had one of the toughest schedules in the country. For an LSU fan to claim they had a tough schedule, which is mostly based on preseason overhyped rankings is a joke. You want to play a tough schedule plays UTs. They will have 5 teams currently ranked, 3 in the top 5 alone, 4 in the top 10.
 
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#46
#46
Okla State would have the best chance to jump UA if FSU and OSU drops their games next week. UA will be sitting home and they will be playing OU who is ranked. The only thing that helps UA right now is BCS could provide a buffer because some projections show UA only dropping to 4th ahead of Mizzou. Depending on the points it may be enough to hold of Okie St but I see no way Duke beats FSU so it really does not matter in the end. But crazier things have happened. Like going for a 57fg with 1 second on the clock with everything on the line or returning a 109 yd FG miss for a TD to set your team up for the NC.

If OSU and FSU both win out they are in and AU will get screwed again like in 04 when they were undefeated. Voters will justify it by saying they had a loss but from what I have seen they are better than OSU.

AU will be in the Sugar looking like it will be against NIll or UCF

UA will drop into the Orange against Clemson is the speculation
 
#47
#47
LSU-SIU said:
Oklahoma St. say hi with a better SoS and Northern Illinois has zero loses. If Bama were any other school and lost the last game of the year... they would be ranked in the 6-8 range.

1.) Florida St.
2.) Ohio St.
3.) Northern Illinois
4.) Missouri
5.) Auburn
6.) Oklahoma State
7.) Alabama
8.) Michigan State
9.) Baylor

None of the top ranked teams have a tough schedule... the key is schedule cupcakes and have a cup cake schedule + being in a major conference.
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Yep. I would also add being ranked high in the preseason is a big part too. It also doesn't hurt if your name is Bama, Ohio State, ND, USC, etc.....
 
#48
#48
What would the 4 team playoff be this year? AU, Bama, FSU, and OSU? Assuming everyone wins their conference (except Bama)?
 
#49
#49
Sorry Gump, not going to read your whole hogwash post. You lost!!!!! Alabama is not even the best team in Alabama.:dance2::dance2::dance2::dance2::dance2::dance2:

BTW Alabama's Sos is 55 through last week, LSU's was 18th, after this week Alabama will move up slightly, LSU will move down slightly.

College Football Ratings Page

None of the top ranked teams have a tough SoS.

SEC through last week.
UT 7
MS 9
UGA 10
Kentucky 12
Miss 13
LSU 18
Florida 22
Arkansas 27
USC 35
Vandy 37
Auburn 38
Missouri 39
Texas A&M 43
|
|
Alabama 55
:lolabove::lolabove::lolabove::lolabove:

Alabama is not the best team in the country.
Alabama is not the best team in the SEC.
Alabama is not the best team in the SEC West.
Heck, Alabama isn't even the best team in Alabama.

I call do over. :eek:lol:
 
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#50
#50
The facts are the facts LSU has not played anyone any tougher than UA and I never said UA had a tougher schedule.

And in the end all that matters is UA beat LSU which probably hurt our strength of schedule as well. But what can we do when we are forced to play weaker teams in conference play.:banghead2:
 
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