Bill Connelly ESPN -- Vols ceiling 11-1; floor is 7-5

[PlanetVolunteer]

We will drop one out of Florida and A&M

Yeah, I know both were train wrecks last year. A&M has the talent. I see them (sadly) taking a leap back to decent this year.

Florida, yeah they seem like a dumpster fire right now but I wanna wait to see a game before I throw any more dirt on their name. It's still Florida. In Gainesville. Maybe the last game of the yearly rivalry. Blah blah blah

We will also drop one game we have absolutely no business losing. We will bring our "C-" game at best to a game for whatever reason. Best hope is that we have that game vs Georgia or something where we already have slim chances. That happens, we might to to 9-3 but I'm not betting on it.

Other than pessimism I'm not seeing any real reason we should lose to Florida or A&M

Florida has Graham Mertz at qb and hes super average. 57% comoletion % in the Big Ten. Florida is losing 11 players to the draft and they lost 24 to the portal.

A&M lost Achane and they still have to prove they can score points and enough of them to outscore our offense.

We have far less question marks than any of those schools.

Probably less question marks than Bama who returns almost none of their production, have QB's who haven't proven anything and a new DC and OC.

Even UGA has more question marks than we do in a way.

I just don't get expecting to lose to inferior teams.

 

[stolitonic]

Other than pessimism I'm not seeing any real reason we should lose to Florida or A&M

Florida has Graham Mertz at qb and hes super average. 57% comoletion % in the Big Ten. Florida is losing 11 players to the draft and they lost 24 to the portal.

A&M lost Achane and they still have to prove they can score points and enough of them to outscore our offense.

We have far less question marks than any of those schools.

Probably less question marks than Bama who returns almost none of their production, have QB's who haven't proven anything and a new DC and OC.

Even UGA has more question marks than we do in a way.

I just don't get expecting to lose to inferior teams.

It's February. We have no clue who is inferior or superior at this point until the whistle blows a few times.

We're all just spitballing at this point based on the results of the last year or two.

Just my thoughts anyway. In the bitter end, much of our season is going to be determined between Joe Milton's ears. I have confidence that the big man is going to do OK, but I honestly think we're gonna see more of a running attack this year with the occasional bomb to keep the D honest.

 

[Winchester73]

Unfortunately … or fortunately … the bar has been raised. If we go 8-4 folks will be calling for coach’s head. “See we’ve regressed”, etc etc … Wait and see.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

It's February. We have no clue who is inferior or superior at this point until the whistle blows a few times.

We're all just spitballing at this point based on the results of the last year or two.

Just my thoughts anyway. In the bitter end, much of our season is going to be determined between Joe Milton's ears. I have confidence that the big man is going to do OK, but I honestly think we're gonna see more of a running attack this year with the occasional bomb to keep the D honest.

Yeah we are getting deeper and more experienced at running back. We may be so good at running the ball it naturally takes away the pass.

We just have so many weapons on the outside though. Bru, Squirrel, Keyton and Thornton.j

 

[Volfan76]

10. Tennessee Volunteers
Ceiling: 11-1 | Floor: 7-5
Initial SP+ rank: 6 | Odds of finishing 11-1 or better: 13%
Biggest variable: The Joe Milton bandwagon. Does it derail once again? As I wrote in Tuesday's SP+ projections piece, Milton has seduced multiple head coaches with his rocket-launcher arm (and looked great in the Orange Bowl against Clemson), but he has also twice lost his starting job. If he properly captains Josh Heupel's up-tempo offense -- a QB-friendly attack that returns a loaded run game and talented receivers such as Bru McCoy and Ramel Keyton -- then the sky is the limit for a Volunteers team that boasts massive defensive experience and, intriguingly, hosts Georgia. Is Milton's third time a charm?


Undefeated Michigan? 9-3 Georgia? Ceilings, floors and variables for each Top 25 team

What was his ceiling for Tennessee last year?

 

[Devo182]

7-5 and 6-6 is not possible.

As possible as 10-2 felt last season. We also just went 7-5 2 years ago with HH. Unlikely, but within the realm of possibilities. I like it as a reasonable floor.

To me a floor or ceiling should be anything above a 5% chance of happening. Obviously there's no such thing as a REAL floor or ceiling (see: 4-8), but you have to cut it off somewhere.

 

[Devo182]

What was his ceiling for Tennessee last year?

Idk but he had us #9 preseason. Dang close.

Bill C. is the GOAT for a reason.

 

[Devo182]

Our range is National Championship down to barely bowl eligible?
Bold Prediction.

They are floors and ceilings. Very reasonable. The floor to ceiling should account for 90-95% of possible outcomes.

Ofc fans tend to underestimate the highs and lows possible. Statisticians do not.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

As possible as 10-2 felt last season. We also just went 7-5 2 years ago with HH. Unlikely, but within the realm of possibilities. I like it as a reasonable floor.

To me a floor or ceiling should be anything above a 5% chance of happening. Obviously there's no such thing as a REAL floor or ceiling (see: 4-8), but you have to cut it off somewhere.

I dont know 10-2 felt very possible to me last year as that's what I predicted and 7-5 feels just as unlikely to next season as it did in 2022.

Unless some teams make drastic improvements we are going to drag peoples skulls.

Milton is going to be really good. Our receivers are unstoppable. Our backs are back and we are deeper. Tons of vets on defense. Will be better up front, linebacker and DB.

A&M can maybe have a good enough defense to stop us? That's the real concern besides the obvious two (Bama, UGA) if they put it all together and Petrino modernizes their offense.

If we go 7-5 with this roster it will be utterly shocking.

 

[cherokeeeVOL]

Slightly off-topic I guess, but I just noticed from the article that Bama will also have a new O-line and will be replacing the majority of their defense. I knew about Young, Anderson and the coordinators but not this too lol. I know they have talent everywhere but damn that’s a LOT of change. Here’s hoping for two in a row come October!

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

Unfortunately … or fortunately … the bar has been raised. If we go 8-4 folks will be calling for coach’s head. “See we’ve regressed”, etc etc … Wait and see.

The bar has definitely been raised, but I wouldn't call for his head after going 8-4. I will say I won't be happy with 8-4 though and neither should any other fan. Bama and UGA are the only games we should and will likely lose. A&M on talent alone puts them up there as a possible loss but after that, we should win the rest of them. Obviously doesn't mean we will, but we are currently a better program than the rest of the schools after those 3, and we're in better shape than A&M just going off coaching.

 

[ptgrbn]

Florida, A&M, South Carolina, and Kentucky are all very losable games. I don’t think we will actually lose all 4, but all four are within the realm of possibility

Florida- anything could happen, it’s Florida W/L
A&M- it’s time for a reckoning W
South Carolina- is already circled on the calendar W
KY- Same outcome different year W

 

[Vol8188]

Florida- anything could happen, it’s Florida W/L
A&M- it’s time for a reckoning W
South Carolina- is already circled on the calendar W
KY- Same outcome different year W

Games don’t always meet your expectation. Even a team you should beat by 2 tds is one capable of beating you. Even the best QBs probably only complete deep balls 60% of the time or less. Yet wirhin that range of outcomes there’s a world where the KY QB goes 4/4 on go balls and all of a sudden it’s a one score game that anyone can win

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

6-6 is our floor but unlikely

Not seeing that with this schedule. We are significantly better than every team we play in the non-conference plus Vandy, Mizzou and Kentucky. That’s 7 wins I’m comfortable saying are ’s.

South Carolina and Texas A&M at home are very likely wins. I’m on record saying we absolutely eviscerate South Carolina. A&M has talent, but a putrid offense. Not a good recipe to beat us in Neyland.

So we’re probably already looking at 9 wins fairly easily. Florida, Georgia and Alabama are the games that give me pause. Florida, just because we haven’t won down there in so long. I think they are going to suck, but they will give us everything they’ve got per usual. Then Bama and Georgia, we are clear underdogs and it will take everything we have to win.

 

[Vol8188]

Not seeing that with this schedule. We are significantly better than every team we play in the non-conference plus Vandy, Mizzou and Kentucky. That’s 7 wins I’m comfortable saying are ’s.

South Carolina and Texas A&M at home are very likely wins. I’m on record saying we absolutely eviscerate South Carolina. A&M has talent, but a putrid offense. Not a good recipe to beat us in Neyland.

So we’re probably already looking at 9 wins fairly easily. Florida, Georgia and Alabama are the games that give me pause. Florida, just because we haven’t won down there in so long. I think they are going to suck, but they will give us everything they’ve got per usual. Then Bama and Georgia, we are clear underdogs and it will take everything we have to win.

Missouri was beating Georgia in the fourth last season. Both them and Kentucky are good enough to beat us if we don’t bring out A game.

A&M now has an elite level play caller to go with all that talent.

SC is a big wild card. Anytime you have a talented QB, you can pull an upset.

 

[Orange931]

This is a 10+ win team. We will absolutely beat the hell out of SC jr. So I’m not sure why anybody is scared of that game. The only two obstacles are Bama and Georgia.

 

[GetYouSomeofThat]

The problem is everybody is acting like Hendon Hooker is coming back. I have high hopes for Milton this season but that's all they are...hopes! Milton has yet to prove that he's ready to lead this team for 12 games. Yes he played decent against Clemson in the bowl game but that doesnt always translate to an entire season and I still have my concerns with him. And if he gets hurt we have a true freshman behind him that looks like he weighs about a buck eighty soaking wet!

Some people dont yet realize just how special Hooker was here and I'm afraid they're going to realize it in Gainesville.

Hooker was pretty average before being coached y CJH. For certain wasnt special st Va Tech.

Milton has more upside the Hooker IMO.

 

[ptgrbn]

Games don’t always meet your expectation. Even a team you should beat by 2 tds is one capable of beating you. Even the best QBs probably only complete deep balls 60% of the time or less. Yet wirhin that range of outcomes there’s a world where the KY QB goes 4/4 on go balls and all of a sudden it’s a one score game that anyone can win

Yea… I’m just going to kind of…disagree with you there…yea

 

[Vol8188]

Yea… I’m just going to kind of…disagree with you there…yea

The problem is you’re confusing the floor with what you think is most likely. There’s enoguh variance in outcomes that Missouri and Kentucky could possibly best us if everything goes right for them.

If your are saying the most likely scenario is we win 9, I would agree. But the floor is much lower

 

[VFL-82-JP]

The problem is you’re confusing the floor with what you think is most likely. There’s enoguh variance in outcomes that Missouri and Kentucky could possibly best us if everything goes right for them.

If your are saying the most likely scenario is we win 9, I would agree. But the floor is much lower

The real problem is, there's no clear definition for "floor." It is a phrase we each use in our own way to describe our expectations.

If you wish to take likelihood entirely out of the equation, all you're left with is, "Yes, any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday. It's theoretically possible, even if exceedingly unlikely."

In other words, friend, when you propose a floor of 6 wins, you're working with likelihood just as much as the fellas you've disagreed with in this thread.

Another fella could use your very own argument to say 5 is the floor. Or 4. Or 3. It's just a matter of tolerance for extremely unlikely possibilities.

...

My personal definitions for "floor" and "ceiling" involve this thought: would I bet a paycheck on it? If so, that's likely enough.

For me, our floor in 2023 is 8 wins. Our ceiling is 12. I'd bet a paycheck we'll win 8 or more this year, and would bet a paycheck that we won't win more than 12 (regular season, heh).

And I personally think 8 to 12 is going to remain our floor-ceiling as long as Josh Heupel is our head coach. Forever, amen.

Go Vols!

 

[bpalmer28]

If you’re not capable of beating UGA, you aren’t capable of beating Bama. Gap between them isn’t big if there even is one. Ceiling is either 10-2 or 15-0. No in between

 

[JMSqb11]

Other than pessimism I'm not seeing any real reason we should lose to Florida or A&M

Florida has Graham Mertz at qb and hes super average. 57% comoletion % in the Big Ten. Florida is losing 11 players to the draft and they lost 24 to the portal.

A&M lost Achane and they still have to prove they can score points and enough of them to outscore our offense.

We have far less question marks than any of those schools.

Probably less question marks than Bama who returns almost none of their production, have QB's who haven't proven anything and a new DC and OC.

Even UGA has more question marks than we do in a way.

I just don't get expecting to lose to inferior teams.

Which means Mertz is the designated transfer QB of 2023 to play a career game vs us.

 

[VolsnRavens]

If you’re not capable of beating UGA, you aren’t capable of beating Bama. Gap between them isn’t big if there even is one. Ceiling is either 10-2 or 15-0. No in between

I agree, w/ith Ga replacing their VIP OC Todd Munkin with a new OC, and a new qb, I’m gonna hold off on this. Satan is used to replacing folks, been doing it for years. But Kirb is new at the replacement game as a top dog. Not saying they will suck. Saying it is more of an unknown vs ALA, so I’m gonna lean more of a Ga win in Neyland than a Bama win in inbredsville.

 

[ptgrbn]

The problem is you’re confusing the floor with what you think is most likely. There’s enoguh variance in outcomes that Missouri and Kentucky could possibly best us if everything goes right for them.

If your are saying the most likely scenario is we win 9, I would agree. But the floor is much lower

Most likely 8 or 9 but I think the floor would require injuries at multiple key positions. Remember every SEC team is facing uncertainty on one level or multiple as well. New year and new faces. We gotta a pretty good group returning so gotta feel somewhat optimistic

 

[Devo182]

I dont know 10-2 felt very possible to me last year as that's what I predicted and 7-5 feels just as unlikely to next season as it did in 2022.

Unless some teams make drastic improvements we are going to drag peoples skulls.

Milton is going to be really good. Our receivers are unstoppable. Our backs are back and we are deeper. Tons of vets on defense. Will be better up front, linebacker and DB.

A&M can maybe have a good enough defense to stop us? That's the real concern besides the obvious two (Bama, UGA) if they put it all together and Petrino modernizes their offense.

If we go 7-5 with this roster it will be utterly shocking.

Agree with A&M, but also the cumulatives of the others. Similar to USCjr last season. Those losses happen across enough games combined

It comes down to definitions. Jmo but floors and ceilings should still be within reason, but not every single possibility. Let's assume your prediction is 9-3. If your overall floor to ceiling range is a mere 8-4 to 10-2, you're only accounting for ~2\3rds of outcomes. Leaving a 1 in 3 chance of falling outside that range doesn't seem to do justice to "floor" and "ceiling". On the other end, say your floor is 6-6 and ceiling is 12-0 (+/- 3 games from prediction) then you're now accounting for 99% of outcomes. Feels like overkill, might as well say floor is 0-12 and ceiling is 12-0 every season.

But if you allow for +/-2 games, for a 5 win range, then you account for ~92% of outcomes. Reasonable, but not an absurd catch-all definition either.