BPI Rankings

#28
#28
MemphisCanes said:
Pace of the game is measured by "possessions". In basketball, each team gets the same number of possessions in any given game (+/- 1 i believe, to account for who gets the jump ball to start game and who has final shot). Possesions can only end on a defensive rebound, turnover or point scored.

From the possessions of a game, stats like BPI and Kenpom can extroplate efficiency scores such as points per possession and opponent's points per possesion. These are by far the two most important and all-encompassing stats in basketball.

It allows us to differentiate teams like Kentucky and SMU, let's say. They may allow the same points per game, but since Kentucky plays a much harder schedule and plays at a higher pace, their defense is actually leagues better than SMU's (common sense).

Kenpom is the best 20 bucks you can spend if you're a serious bball fan.
Click to expand...

Thank you for the explanation, by the way. :hi:

One more note: Regarding the UK/SMU example, including strength of schedule in the formula will handle that issue. KY's wins will be worth more, with the same scoring margins, simply because their schedule will grade out better. So, it's not like another number needs to be added to prove that KY has a better defense than SMU.
 
#30
#30
ukvols said:
The possessions per game argument is fair. I see the point, but I'll add that it leaves open the possibility of a game that was close throughout being weighed the same as a game that was not in as much doubt. Consider the 60-50 vs 90-75 example that was posted. If the 10-pt game had 40 posssessions, and the 15-pt game had 60 possessions, I suppose the games would be given equal weight (1.5-1.25 in pts per possession). But, that doesn't change the simple, obvious fact that one game was a 10-pt game, and the other game was a 15-pt game. Suppose those final margins were the scoring difference for the majority of the contests. The team trailing by 10, if they went on a run, was always in a better position to come back than the team trailing by 15.
Click to expand...

Not so sure about this. If the team behind by 15 gets half again as many possessions in which to come back, they're not really in much worse position.

We've all seen those games where 20 points look like they could disappear in a heartbeat, and we've seen those games where 10 points look completely insurmountable. This just quantifies it.
 
#31
#31
TennesseeFan07 said:
Tennessee needs to be in the top 45 to even get consideration.
Click to expand...

USC's RPI was well below 45 last year, and they still got in. I'll feel much better if Tennessee is in the Top 45, but teams regularly get in with worse RPIs and miss the field with better RPIs. The RPI is just one tool that the Committee gives an unknown weight to.
 
#34
#34
Incipient said:
Not so sure about this. If the team behind by 15 gets half again as many possessions in which to come back, they're not really in much worse position.

We've all seen those games where 20 points look like they could disappear in a heartbeat, and we've seen those games where 10 points look completely insurmountable. This just quantifies it.
Click to expand...

If the team down by 15 is getting the ball more often, then yes, they will get more shots. But, that also means the team that's beating them is getting more possessions to score.
 
#36
#36
ukvols said:
Thank you for the explanation, by the way. :hi:

One more note: Regarding the UK/SMU example, including strength of schedule in the formula will handle that issue. KY's wins will be worth more, with the same scoring margins, simply because their schedule will grade out better. So, it's not like another number needs to be added to prove that KY has a better defense than SMU.
Click to expand...

Well, SOS is taken into account by Kenpom and BPI. You can slide Wisconsin into place for SMU and it's still valid. They may hold teams to slightly lower overall scores than UK, but Wisconsin also plays probably 8 (on average) fewer possesions per game, so Kentucky again has the better defense despite allowing more points per game.
 
#37
#37
TennesseeFan07 said:
Those teams also have significant wins. Tennessee doesn't.
Click to expand...

Oregon in 08 didn't.

The field has expanded, the committee weighs late season performance higher, Jarnell Stokes came in midseason, and the back end of the at-large pool is awful. Tennessee stays hot, Tennessee gets in, and I doubt the RPI gets that high.
 
#38
#38
TennesseeFan07 said:
Those teams also have significant wins. Tennessee doesn't.
Click to expand...

Southern Cal's profile last year:

RPI: #67

Top 100 wins: 8 (Vols currently have 5)
Top 50 wins: 4 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-100 losses: 5 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-200 losses: 3 (Vols currently have 0)

Wins over tournament teams:

vs Texas (4 seed)
@ Tennessee (9 seed)
vs UCLA (7 seed)
vs Arizona (5 seed)
@ Washington (7 seed)
 
#39
#39
ukvols said:
If the team down by 15 is getting the ball more often, then yes, they will get more shots. But, that also means the team that's beating them is getting more possessions to score.
Click to expand...

and the opposite is true if the game is low on possessions. Basically, a 10 pt win in a game with 55 possesions it equivalent to a 15 point win in a game with 70 possesions, or close to it.
 
#40
#40
emainvol said:
Oregon in 08 didn't.

The field has expanded, the committee weighs late season performance higher, Jarnell Stokes came in midseason, and the back end of the at-large pool is awful. Tennessee stays hot, Tennessee gets in, and I doubt the RPI gets that high.
Click to expand...

I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.
 
#41
#41
ukvols said:
If the team down by 15 is getting the ball more often, then yes, they will get more shots. But, that also means the team that's beating them is getting more possessions to score.
Click to expand...

But, by hypothesis, the team behind is scoring at a higher rate than the team ahead, so who cares?
 
#42
#42
TennesseeFan07 said:
I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.
Click to expand...

Well obviously Tennessee isn't going to make it in if we finish 3-2. The question is what happens if we finish 4-1 or 5-0. And the people saying we're not an at-large team no matter how we finish are high.
 
#43
#43
Suppose the 60-50 game had 80 possessions instead of 40. Now, it's 0.75-.625 instead of 1.5-1.25. It looks like the team that won in the game with 40 possessions each will get more credit than the team that struggled to score 60 with 80 possessions, but held its opponent to just 50 in 80 possessions.

I'm not seeing the value-added by nuking the final margin by adding another number to it.
 
#44
#44
TennesseeFan07 said:
I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.
Click to expand...

That's fair, and I agree that the odds are against winning out and thus against getting in.
 
#45
#45
Incipient said:
Southern Cal's profile last year:

RPI: #67

Top 100 wins: 8 (Vols currently have 5)
Top 50 wins: 4 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-100 losses: 5 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-200 losses: 3 (Vols currently have 0)

Wins over tournament teams:

vs Texas (4 seed)
@ Tennessee (9 seed)
vs UCLA (7 seed)
vs Arizona (5 seed)
@ Washington (7 seed)
Click to expand...

I believe all UT's remaining opponents except SoCar are RPI top 100, so winning out would mean add 4 to that total for a nice total of nine.
 
#46
#46
ukvols said:
Suppose the 60-50 game had 80 possessions instead of 40. Now, it's 0.75-.625 instead of 1.5-1.25. It looks like the team that won in the game with 40 possessions each will get more credit than the team that struggled to score 60 with 80 possessions, but held its opponent to just 50 in 80 possessions.

I'm not seeing the value-added by nuking the final margin by adding another number to it.
Click to expand...

Because a team winning 10 point 55 possession games can be just as dominant as a team winning 15 point 75 possession games. It takes away an existing bias against slow teams.
 
#47
#47
zansdad said:
I believe all UT's remaining opponents except SoCar are RPI top 100, so winning out would mean add 4 to that total for a nice total of nine.
Click to expand...

Although Georgia is #100 right now, so that total may drop to eight. But still, winning out puts us at worst with numbers similar to last year's bubble teams.
 
#48
#48
TennesseeFan07 said:
I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.
Click to expand...

That's fair. I think they are a longshot as well, but a win Saturday will leave them in great position. It will be interesting to see how Martin uses the sudden possibility of making it to motivate
 
#49
#49
zansdad said:
I believe all UT's remaining opponents except SoCar are RPI top 100, so winning out would mean add 4 to that total for a nice total of nine.
Click to expand...

I find it hard to believe Tennessee's resume won't be at least as good as last year's USC when it's all done. That said, they could still lose two and have a similar resume
 
#50
#50
emainvol said:
That's fair. I think they are a longshot as well, but a win Saturday will leave them in great position. It will be interesting to see how Martin uses the sudden possibility of making it to motivate
Click to expand...

Coach Martin is the man for the job to do that. When the going gets tough, a Cuonzo Martin coached team always gets tougher. Most coaches would have lost this team two months ago.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top