BTO’s Norfolk State Postgame Report

#26
#26
Not to pile on but Gainey is glaringly an issue statistically as his struggles continue, if you remove him from the stats our nationals rankings in FG% go from 252 to 121, 2pt% goes from 232 to 138 and 3pt% goes from 169 to 114. Obviously none of those are still great rankings but I mention it because Zeigler and Vescovi seem to be trending up while Gainey continues trending down.
Agreed, Gainey needs to find his shot/confidence again but I think he will. Was a big step up in competition for him along with changing roles. Think his reduction in minutes and asking him to be less of a scorer/ball handler may actually help him get out of his slump by letting the game come to him more. At least that’s my hope.
 
#27
#27
The Jefferson situation is just disappointing, because he was very mature and bought into the redshirt last year and remember him taking it in stride. He’s an extremely gifted athlete but on the surface it definitely looks like he just hasn’t bought into the grind that it takes to thrive under Barnes.

Considering he’s still technically just a freshmen, I do hope he stays and figures things out. He’s got plenty of time to see the court and I’d love to see what Barnes can turn him into. But basically all signs point to him transferring with how things are going. Just hope he lands somewhere good for him. It very often does not turn out that way.
I have watched him closely in the minutes he’s had in the preseason games and the one game he’s played in so far this season. I think the issue is he just doesn’t know how to play the game. You put the ball in his hand and say go score, and he has ability there. But all the other stuff that comes naturally after playing years of organized ball, he doesn’t do. Hes a dear in the headlights out there. Doesn’t understand rotation on defense, seeing your man and the ball, basic movements on offense of ball reversal, clearing out or cutting when the ball goes to certain areas. I’ve played with guys like this where they are great athletes and can play one on one, but 5 on 5 it just doesn’t click. That may be a bit harsh, but it’s what I’ve noticed in the limited time he’s been on the floor. Just my 2 cents.
 
#28
#28
I have watched him closely in the minutes he’s had in the preseason games and the one game he’s played in so far this season. I think the issue is he just doesn’t know how to play the game. You put the ball in his hand and say go score, and he has ability there. But all the other stuff that comes naturally after playing years of organized ball, he doesn’t do. Hes a dear in the headlights out there. Doesn’t understand rotation on defense, seeing your man and the ball, basic movements on offense of ball reversal, clearing out or cutting when the ball goes to certain areas. I’ve played with guys like this where they are great athletes and can play one on one, but 5 on 5 it just doesn’t click. That may be a bit harsh, but it’s what I’ve noticed in the limited time he’s been on the floor. Just my 2 cents.

I haven't seen the kid play---but I suspect you're onto it. It is not uncommon at all to see great athletes on the court--but there is a huge difference between being an outstanding athlete and being a good/excellent basketball player. The later requires one to understand the basics of the game---the fundamentals, your responsibilities on both ends of the court; it requires a lot of quick, and solid, decision making. It's not just about running down the floor and jamming the ball. We had this issue with the Frenchman on our team, what, three or so years ago--excellent athlete but a very raw and inexperienced basketball player.
 
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#29
#29
Not to pile on but Gainey is glaringly an issue statistically as his struggles continue, if you remove him from the stats our nationals rankings in FG% go from 252 to 121, 2pt% goes from 232 to 138 and 3pt% goes from 169 to 114. Obviously none of those are still great rankings but I mention it because Zeigler and Vescovi seem to be trending up while Gainey continues trending down.

Good pull. I agree that Gainey has been problematic. No idea where the guy who excelled against MSU and Wisconsin went, but we can’t say it’s a small sample size anymore. It’s been 13 games and he was 0-5 again last night from 3. If he can’t provide us perimeter scoring, he really doesn’t do enough well to justify the minutes and it’s looking like his minutes are shrinking accordingly.

Mashack has been a far more efficient player this year. I wouldn’t mind his minutes continuing to climb, but I still think we need to find a way to get Dillione some additional floor time. He flashed some shot-making last night towards the end.

We obviously have time to bring the offense around, but every national champion since 2000 has had a KenPom AdjO in the Top 15 and AdjD in the Top 35.

The defense is clearly there and going nowhere but we have to get the offense fixed, but I do think we’re trending in the right direction. A lot of positive signs last night.
 
#30
#30
He can leave now, but I guess with the transfer rules that wouldn’t garner him an earlier start for another team in 2024-2025. He could play in the first game next year instead of having to sit until January 2025 even by NOT transferring now.

I’m guessing, but maybe Barnes has DJ focusing on his academics and won’t be playing him this year. Tough love. If there was an injury I would think that even with privacy issues it would be known that he’s rehabbing something.

There’s also a mini-term that hasn’t wrapped up, so if he took a class maybe the results will be considered.

Jefferson said all the right things during an interview a couple of weeks ago.

I'd love to hear any insiders info on DJ. He seems like a really good kid. My son went to a UT camp this past summer and he and DJ struck up a friendship. When my son was trying out for his Middle School team, he and DJ would Snap Chat back and forth and DJ was always very encouraging. If my sons misses watching a game he always checks the stats to see if he played, etc. I tell him that maybe DJ got in the "Dog House" or maybe he has to concentrate on his grades. I have always had high hopes for DJ and certainly hope he can get things moving in the right direction at UT.
 
#31
#31
I'd love to hear any insiders info on DJ. He seems like a really good kid. My son went to a UT camp this past summer and he and DJ struck up a friendship. When my son was trying out for his Middle School team, he and DJ would Snap Chat back and forth and DJ was always very encouraging. If my sons misses watching a game he always checks the stats to see if he played, etc. I tell him that maybe DJ got in the "Dog House" or maybe he has to concentrate on his grades. I have always had high hopes for DJ and certainly hope he can get things moving in the right direction at UT.

IMO it’s not putting in enough effort with his academics. If he had an attitude issue keeping him out games he would have already been shown the exit. Barnes might be doing him a big favor by emphasizing that he needs to take his academics seriously and is sitting him down for his own good. We don’t know if he’s being excused from some practices as well which would mean no playing time either if you connect the dots. It would be great to see him grow like Admiral did.
 
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#34
#34
The Jefferson situation is just disappointing, because he was very mature and bought into the redshirt last year and remember him taking it in stride. He’s an extremely gifted athlete but on the surface it definitely looks like he just hasn’t bought into the grind that it takes to thrive under Barnes.

Considering he’s still technically just a freshmen, I do hope he stays and figures things out. He’s got plenty of time to see the court and I’d love to see what Barnes can turn him into. But basically all signs point to him transferring with how things are going. Just hope he lands somewhere good for him. It very often does not turn out that way.
He could have gotten in the portal in December, if he was totally disenchanted; however he did not. While not ideal, it was an option. (e.g. Nae-Qwan Tomlin)
I recognize that players that redshirt under Barnes do have a propensity to transfer. And they do not tend to transfer mid year.
I also recognize that some players do not mesh well with Rick's 'tough love' coaching approach.
As TGO has remarked, He DID say the right kind of things in his interview ... so there is that.
Plus, there will be a ton of minutes next year if he continues to do "... the things we (the coaching staff ) asked him to do ..." on an ongoing basis, regardless of what that is.
So, I am mildly optimistic at this point.

@BTO as always ... nice summary.
...
6. We enter SEC play sitting at 10-3, we have a 18 game SEC slate ahead of us, currently Barttorvik projects us to finish 23-8(13-5), so obviously a 13-5 SEC record to finish out the year is what they’re projecting currently. Obviously it’s a moving target every year and it’s impossible to predict, but that would almost certainly have us firmly in 2 seed territory with an outside shot at a 1 seed/3 seed, so that seems like a solid goal/target point, 13-5 the rest of the way. Per Barttorvik in our first 9 games we are currently favored by 7+ in 6/9…conversely in our final 9 games we are favored by 7+ in 3/9 games, so obviously looking at it through that lens the first half of our schedule is much easier than the back half, we need to take advantage. It would seem like a reasonable expectation to reach that 13-5 would be something like 7-2 in the first half and 6-3 in the back half. We have a good first test with Ole Miss coming to town Saturday, they’re undefeated and ranked, should be a national attraction type game, but analytics aren’t yet sold on the Rebels, being at home this is a game we really need to win and start out the SEC slate with a W.
...
For the first half, I am hopeful for 8-1 but 7-2 is also reasonable.
For the second half, 6-3 is reasonable, but I am hopeful we can go 7-2.
So, my target of 25 wins is still possible.
With no significant injuries and if the machine keeps humming and finds an even better groove ... then Katy bar the door!
Disappointment would be 13-5. My target is 15-3. Anything above that is biscuits and gravy!
Most will likely agree, this is the 'most senior' laden team and also the deepest team Rick has had.
I am going to stick with ... 'this is the best overall team' Rick has had since he has been here.
GBO
 
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#35
#35
The problem with Jefferson is he’s very athletically gifted but very raw when it comes to actual basketball skills.

Athleticism only gets you so far at this level.
 
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#37
#37
The problem with Jefferson is he’s very athletically gifted but very raw when it comes to actual basketball skills.

Athleticism only gets you so far at this level.
You have your take.
Mine take is ... It wasn't his basketball skills or athleticism that put him in review and off the team for a while. The coaches believe in his ability, skills, and athleticism.
But he got on the wrong side of the fence and he is working to mend the fences. This is not about ability!
 
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#38
#38
Good pull. I agree that Gainey has been problematic. No idea where the guy who excelled against MSU and Wisconsin went, but we can’t say it’s a small sample size anymore. It’s been 13 games and he was 0-5 again last night from 3. If he can’t provide us perimeter scoring, he really doesn’t do enough well to justify the minutes and it’s looking like his minutes are shrinking accordingly.

Mashack has been a far more efficient player this year. I wouldn’t mind his minutes continuing to climb, but I still think we need to find a way to get Dillione some additional floor time. He flashed some shot-making last night towards the end.

We obviously have time to bring the offense around, but every national champion since 2000 has had a KenPom AdjO in the Top 15 and AdjD in the Top 35.

The defense is clearly there and going nowhere but we have to get the offense fixed, but I do think we’re trending in the right direction. A lot of positive signs last night.
2011 & 2015 didn’t…also, as discussed last year those rankings are obviously greatly inflated often times by a great 6 game run, that’s not what they were entering the NCAAT.
 
#39
#39
1. That’s exactly what you hoped for in a game like this, realistically considering the opponent the end result was probably better than what you hoped for, but a wire to wire win that was never in doubt is just what you wanted to see in the final OOC game. Outside of a 4-5 minute stretch halfway through the 1st half Tennessee was really dominant and looked great on both ends, again, just what you hoped for in the final game before SEC play starts.

2. Was great to see Dalton Knecht get back to looking a bit like the player we saw earlier in the year, he looked much more assertive especially in the 1st half than we’ve seen recently from him, he’ll need to continue to bring that. Zeigler again seemingly looked even better and now is starting to resemble the best version of himself that we’ve seen on Rocky Top, he’s seemingly finding his outside shot and is absolutely terrorizing opponents on the defensive end. Some folks may look at his 10 three point attempts and say that’s too many, but I’ve got no problem with it…they’re open shots and we need opponents to respect his shot, not back off of him. He’s also a good enough shooter that hitting them at 35%+ is a great shot, especially considering his struggles around the rim, I would be just fine with 95% of his shots coming from behind the 3pt line.

3. On a night where Jonas Aidoo disappointed, Tobe Awaka sure did not. In 21 minutes he has 10pts 11rbd 3blk 4-6fg and just 1 foul…that is phenomenal production from him and a great job from him avoiding the dumb fouls that usually limit his minutes. I don’t think we can ideally play Aidoo & Awaka together much as it really limits offensive spacing, and both would struggle defensively against 4’s…but it allows you to ride the hot hand, or most effective matchup night to night and that’s a nice luxury to have. There’s a spot for both and you just hope both stay locked in and engaged because their numbers will both be called and having each other is a good thing, not bad.

4. Another guy I thought played well was Jahmai Mashack, he continues to get some of Gainey’s minutes and as Gainey continues to struggle shooting that will likely continue. Obviously Mashack has always brought elite defense, but his offense was a struggle to where it was hard to play both him and JJJ together before, which was where Gainey came into play…but Mashack has shown an improved offensive game and JJJ has as well while Gainey has struggled, so you’re seeing more lineups with Mashack out there now as a result. As long as he continues to play within himself and do what he’s capable and comfortable doing he should continue to have a solid role going forward, he doesn’t have to be great offensively, just stay within his game and then obviously his defense will always be there.

5. You can only take so much from these types of games and seeing as it was the last OOC game of the year it’s a good time to look back on that slate and then look ahead as well. We finish the OOC schedule at 10-3, wins @Wisconsin and H to Illinois are the big highlights, neutral site wins against Syracuse & NCST also look nice. Unlike many teams around the country we avoided any bad losses, in fact our 3 losses are all REALLY good losses…neutral site against Purdue & Kansas and a road game to North Carolina…all 3 currently being Top 13 teams. All that to say that that is a great OOC resume for March, you’ve set yourself up nicely for another high seed as you enter conference play which brings me to my next point.

6. We enter SEC play sitting at 10-3, we have a 18 game SEC slate ahead of us, currently Barttorvik projects us to finish 23-8(13-5), so obviously a 13-5 SEC record to finish out the year is what they’re projecting currently. Obviously it’s a moving target every year and it’s impossible to predict, but that would almost certainly have us firmly in 2 seed territory with an outside shot at a 1 seed/3 seed, so that seems like a solid goal/target point, 13-5 the rest of the way. Per Barttorvik in our first 9 games we are currently favored by 7+ in 6/9…conversely in our final 9 games we are favored by 7+ in 3/9 games, so obviously looking at it through that lens the first half of our schedule is much easier than the back half, we need to take advantage. It would seem like a reasonable expectation to reach that 13-5 would be something like 7-2 in the first half and 6-3 in the back half. We have a good first test with Ole Miss coming to town Saturday, they’re undefeated and ranked, should be a national attraction type game, but analytics aren’t yet sold on the Rebels, being at home this is a game we really need to win and start out the SEC slate with a W.


GBO!!!

Knecht had a couple of nice passes last night and that will help the offense going forward.

Estrella played well in his minutes last night.
 
#40
#40
Knecht had a couple of nice passes last night and that will help the offense going forward.

Estrella played well in his minutes last night.
If Knecht will find the open man when he drives, the defense has to rotate to him, leaving somebody open and this team will just get better, imo. If the defense doesn't collapse on him, we will see more 30+ point games
 
#41
#41
If Knecht will find the open man when he drives, the defense has to rotate to him, leaving somebody open and this team will just get better, imo. If the defense doesn't collapse on him, we will see more 30+ point games
Developing the skill to deliver a dime off a drive is a Chandler level skill. Would def increase his nba value.
 
#42
#42
Developing the skill to deliver a dime off a drive is a Chandler level skill. Would def increase his nba value.
Continuing to develop skillz… the reason Haren is still in the league… that and paying huge strip joint bar tabs… 🥰
 
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#43
#43
IMO the half court ball movement (yes, I understand it was Norfolk State) was probably the best I've seen from this bunch all year and one of the best I've seen from a Barnes team in quite some time. I'm not sure this is a top 5 team but they have the makings to be a top 5 team if everyone can play at relatively consistent level game in and game out up to their abilities.

Knecht had a smile on his face yesterday and we need him to play with some freedom. His perimeter shot wasn't falling but we need him to keep shooting them when open and stay aggressive off the dribble. When Zeigler isn't in the game rotating Knecht to the top of the key and letting him create is our next best option, so long as he keeps his TOs down. Only had 1 TO and 4 assists yesterday. I would take that every game. He still is the key to advance far in the tournament and we need him hitting on all cylinders come March/April.

Over the last month Zeigler has been playing excellent. "Heart and soul" of this team. I worry that he may be asked to carry too many minutes, but he thrives on challenges. Guy is a winner. James is playing his best basketball and is "quietly" becoming a very consistent 8 per game rebounder. Whether his shot is on or not, he contributes everywhere. We just need Vescovi to be the guy we have come to know his entire career and he is starting to look more comfortable these last few games. Be a weapon and someone the defense has to account for on the perimeter, get into double figures (10 pts) per game, grab boards which he does well for his size, defend and be a calming influence. Mashack always provides energy and usually has positive contributions off the bench. His role is going to grow in importance in my opinion now that we begin league play due to all the offensive oriented guards in the SEC. He is going to be asked to shut them down. Not giving up on Gainey yet, although his minutes may be reduced, as we really could use his potential scoring punch over the next few months, but his FG % really has to improve and I think it will. Aidoo is an enigma. I don't get him and is the player I'm most concerned with as we have to have decent production from our bigs every game. Conversely, I never worry about Awaka. He is my favorite player and just is a bundle of pent-up aggression. I think he would "throw his grandma to the floor" to go get a rebound, so to speak.

Lastly, we still need some meaningful minutes from someone else during league play, with Estrella or Dilione being the most likely options, but I'm not sure that will happen. We can play faster and try to get easier baskets given our FG % is still relatively low, but more guys need some floor time. I worry our starters are going to lose their legs come springtime if we don't get contributions from others. Otherwise keep those turnovers down, defend without fouling and everyone has to help on the defensive glass. And let's hope more shots start falling as we should at least 4 tics better than 43.5% FG rate we are at now which is no better than what UT averaged over the last 4 years. And should be in the 37% range on 3 pointers....vs where we are at now at 33.8%. We have better shooters than that in this group. Go Vols!
 
#44
#44
BTO….just curious, are you watching the broadcast or in person? I am usually at home games and watch the broadcast later.

A couple of things that would be hard to pick up on TV:
-Knecht doesn’t look the same post UNC. Coming down the court, he’s just not as smooth, he doesn’t cut as hard. It’s pretty obvious the ankle is not healed 100%. On his jump shot the landing even looks different. It does appear to be getting better.
- In warmups Aidoo is straight draining 3s. He’s often got a coach with him feeding him a swing pass that he immediately shoots. It’s pretty obvious they are developing something. It’s obvious different than game speed, but imagine that guy with a reliable outside game.
-Gainey is just struggling. Shooting maybe 50% in warmup open looks. His shot isn’t smooth and consistent like it was early. It’s like he’s experimenting trying to find out what’s wrong.

Overall great analysis again. I’ll add this n about Awaka, he needs to understand that we need zero steals from him in a game. Half of his fouls are stupid reach in fouls that affect nothing. Rebound and block shots. That’s all we really need. Be ready for the quick inside pass or dish when it’s there. It’s starting to feel like he’s beginning to understand his role. When he totally gets it, he’s going to be a monster down low.
 
#45
#45
I have watched him closely in the minutes he’s had in the preseason games and the one game he’s played in so far this season. I think the issue is he just doesn’t know how to play the game. You put the ball in his hand and say go score, and he has ability there. But all the other stuff that comes naturally after playing years of organized ball, he doesn’t do. Hes a dear in the headlights out there. Doesn’t understand rotation on defense, seeing your man and the ball, basic movements on offense of ball reversal, clearing out or cutting when the ball goes to certain areas. I’ve played with guys like this where they are great athletes and can play one on one, but 5 on 5 it just doesn’t click. That may be a bit harsh, but it’s what I’ve noticed in the limited time he’s been on the floor. Just my 2 cents.
Interesting thought. I've had similar conversations with folks. Not on DJ specifically but just why recruits can struggle here. I've always thought Barnes should recruit more international kids. They would likely be better suited to run the motion offense he employs. It can be a big change from the way kids are brought up playing High PR AAU ball now.
 
#46
#46
BTO….just curious, are you watching the broadcast or in person? I am usually at home games and watch the broadcast later.

A couple of things that would be hard to pick up on TV:
-Knecht doesn’t look the same post UNC. Coming down the court, he’s just not as smooth, he doesn’t cut as hard. It’s pretty obvious the ankle is not healed 100%. On his jump shot the landing even looks different. It does appear to be getting better.
- In warmups Aidoo is straight draining 3s. He’s often got a coach with him feeding him a swing pass that he immediately shoots. It’s pretty obvious they are developing something. It’s obvious different than game speed, but imagine that guy with a reliable outside game.
-Gainey is just struggling. Shooting maybe 50% in warmup open looks. His shot isn’t smooth and consistent like it was early. It’s like he’s experimenting trying to find out what’s wrong.

Overall great analysis again. I’ll add this n about Awaka, he needs to understand that we need zero steals from him in a game. Half of his fouls are stupid reach in fouls that affect nothing. Rebound and block shots. That’s all we really need. Be ready for the quick inside pass or dish when it’s there. It’s starting to feel like he’s beginning to understand his role. When he totally gets it, he’s going to be a monster down low.
I really think there's something to unlock with Aidoo. That shot being so smooth is rare for a big man, plus he's mobile. A player like him makes me wish we ran more specialized specific actions to see what the defense did. I'd love to see him running DHO's with Santi and Dalton up top more.
 
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#47
#47
I really think there's something to unlock with Aidoo. That shot being so smooth is rare for a big man, plus he's mobile. A player like him makes me wish we ran more specialized specific actions to see what the defense did. I'd love to see him running DHO's with Santi and Dalton up top more.
They’ve toyed a lot with Aidoo doing more things and having more freedom throughout the OOC, his % don’t suggest it’s something we should continue to experiment with during conference play. I’m with you in that he teases and makes you think there’s potential, and maybe there is, but at some point you’ve gotta hit the shots consistently enough.
 
#48
#48
They’ve toyed a lot with Aidoo doing more things and having more freedom throughout the OOC, his % don’t suggest it’s something we should continue to experiment with during conference play. I’m with you in that he teases and makes you think there’s potential, and maybe there is, but at some point you’ve gotta hit the shots consistently enough.
I agree, I know I heard Barnes say that he is dealing with I think it was a strained calf injury, but he missed a lot of mid ranged shots on Tuesday.
 
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#49
#49
They’ve toyed a lot with Aidoo doing more things and having more freedom throughout the OOC, his % don’t suggest it’s something we should continue to experiment with during conference play. I’m with you in that he teases and makes you think there’s potential, and maybe there is, but at some point you’ve gotta hit the shots consistently enough.
I don’t see the logic in having my tallest player taking 3 pointers regularly unless he’s the best shooter on the team. Our other 4 starters are all better from distance. Unless the other team can defend such that those guys can’t get good looks from 3 then it makes more sense to have our longest guy rebounding. JMO
 
#50
#50
I don’t see the logic in having my tallest player taking 3 pointers regularly unless he’s the best shooter on the team. Our other 4 starters are all better from distance. Unless the other team can defend such that those guys can’t get good looks from 3 then it makes more sense to have our longest guy rebounding. JMO
Well typically 3pt attempts rebound long which takes some away from big men…Aidoo isn’t a great rebounder as is, and he’s taking shots already was my point. If he’s going to take shots he needs to be a better shooter, if he’s not going to shoot the ball and just be a rebounder then he needs to rebound better.
 
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