Butch Jones record with 10+ days off: 10-4

#51
#51
SC 30, UT 17. Won't be very close. Worley lays another egg.
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#52
#52
KBVol said:
No doubt he's got us going in the right direction... just a question of how fast IMO. If he beats SCar it's accelerated and we're ahead of pace.
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I think we're already ahead of pace. UGA was a much, much more talented team than UT. If not for that freak fumble which you can't fault Pig for we probably walk away with a victory.
 
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#53
#53
DieHardVOL said:
Good stuff there...
What is our record again against ranked teams the past 5 years or so?
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We are 0-1 against ranked opponents at home after a bye week.

Perhaps we will be 0-2 after Saturday, but it won't be for the same reasons we lost a lot of those games against ranked opponents:

* Poor preparation
* Poor effort
* Weak game plan
* Bad coaching
* Inability to count to 11

If we get beat by a better team, so be it, but we will play hard and have a great game plan that gives a chance to win if we execute it.

Oh, and our last win against a ranked team? South Carolina at Neyland.
 
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#54
#54
Rifleman said:
Folks. This is going to be a great game this weekend, but I have no doubt our guys will be ready.

Why? With 10+ days rest:

* Coach Jones' teams are 10-4, including bowl games.

* They have won 9 of the last 11.

* They have won 7 of the last 8.

* The last four victims are Va Tech, Vandy, Pitt, and Louisville.

* The last loss came at West Virginia in 2010, a team that finished #22 in the BCS rankings.

* The loss at West Virginia is Butch's only loss with the full bye week, 14 days rest before a non-bowl game. Interestingly, WVU had 15 days rest before this one, having played on a Friday before a bye week.

* Average score is 34 - 28.

*Average score last 11 is 31 - 24.

* 3 of the 4 losses were by 3 points.

Now I fully expect South Carolina to come in here ready to play and knowing the fight they are in for. I still think we win 27-24.

If for any reason the Gamecocks don't come in with the proper game motivation, they are gonna get Butch slapped hard.

Oh, and looking ahead we have a bye week before Vandy comes to Neyland and we will likely have the opportunity to eliminate them from bowl contention.
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Not to be a Debbie Downer on this but to statistically have any significance what is his winning % on any given Saturday as compared to with a bye week prior?

Combined record at Central Michigan and Cinci is 50-27. That is a 69% Record. 10-4 is a 71% record. May not even be statically significant. Only a 2% difference (and that includes the by week win/loss).

So we are saying our coach has a 2% more chance to win Saturday due to bye week.
 
#55
#55
johnboyhunter said:
Not to be a Debbie Downer on this but to statistically have any significance what is his winning % on any given Saturday as compared to with a bye week prior?

Combined record at Central Michigan and Cinci is 50-27. That is a 69% Record. 10-4 is a 71% record. May not even be statically significant. Only a 2% difference (and that includes the by week win/loss).

So we are saying our coach has a 2% more chance to win Saturday due to bye week.
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To compare two data sets you must first make one discrete from the other. If you leave the 10-4 in the 50-27, then you are not making a clean comparison. If you did, you would see statistically significant divergence:

10 - 4 on 10+ days rest for 71.4% wins

vs

43 - 26 all other games for 62.3% wins

OR, if you prefer

8-1 post bye week for 88% wins

vs

45-29 in all other games for 60.8% wins


None of this is to say that we are guaranteed a win on Saturday, just to say that I trust that we will be well prepared and motivated and that the extra time will be used to maximum effect.
 
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#56
#56
If both teams come out and play up to their potential, SC wins in a wash. We just aren't there...yet.
 
#58
#58
Nice work on the stats , but I have to wonder what his record is ,after 14 days rest when playing the number 11th ranked team in the country is ..........apples to apples
 
#59
#59
salutethehill said:
If both teams come out and play up to their potential, SC wins in a wash. We just aren't there...yet.
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If both teams play their absolutely 100% best game, then yes, we will lose. Even that would be a lot more fun to watch than last year's Troy or Mizzou game. :swoon3:
 
#60
#60
DaddyChad said:
I think we're already ahead of pace. UGA was a much, much more talented team than UT. If not for that freak fumble which you can't fault Pig for we probably walk away with a victory.
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I disagree. We came close to beating Georgia last year. Everyone wants to focus on the fumble, but there's no guarantee we win even if he scores. We would have still had to stop Aaron Murray from scoring touchdowns and our defense showed that they couldn't stop him from driving down the whole field at the end of the game. There's no reason to suspect they could stop him driving 25 yards.

We can take some positives from the Georgia game, but really if we don't build on it and beat South Carolina, it doesn't mean anything. Dooley had some close losses too. And some of them were against arguably better teams. Time we learned from history and stop crowning guys the savior until they actual win an important game on the field.
 
#61
#61
soda23 said:
Nice work on the stats , but I have to wonder what his record is ,after 14 days rest when playing the number 11th ranked team in the country is ..........apples to apples
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Ha! You got me, there! :lolabove:

Best I can find is a 31-29 loss at Cincy to #8 Oklahoma in 2010. Cincy had a Thursday night game the week before, so they had two extra days to prepare.

Pretty good effort considering how small that team was up front. NC State pushed them around. OK finished #6 that year.

Not apple to apple, but maybe this is an apple to an oddly rotund pear comparison.
 
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#63
#63
Since no one answered my question earlier, once again I'll ask: Does anyone know Butch Jones' record in games where he isn't favored to win? Seems like that would be a more telling stat for Saturday.
 
#65
#65
oregonvol said:
I disagree. We came close to beating Georgia last year. Everyone wants to focus on the fumble, but there's no guarantee we win even if he scores. We would have still had to stop Aaron Murray from scoring touchdowns and our defense showed that they couldn't stop him from driving down the whole field at the end of the game. There's no reason to suspect they could stop him driving 25 yards.
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Except that we did. Stop them that is. Best I recall they lost a yard and had to kick a field goal to win it. With a touchdown we win. And I understand that if we had scored it changes the dynamic completely as to what they have to do, but we had stopped them for most of the second half until the game-tying touchdown.

Really not trying to be disagreeable because there is really no way to know what happens if we had scored the touchdown. But as my father-in-law used to say about money, better to miserable with it than miserable without it. At least the touchdown would've improved our chances.

And just for the record, I generally agree with the point that you seem to be making that we are really way to early in this latest new process to know whether Butch is the answer or not. But I like what I've seen so far.

Go Vols!
 
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#66
#66
oregonvol said:
Since no one answered my question earlier, once again I'll ask: Does anyone know Butch Jones' record in games where he isn't favored to win? Seems like that would be a more telling stat for Saturday.
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I wouldn't mind knowing this also.
 
#67
#67
oregonvol said:
Since no one answered my question earlier, once again I'll ask: Does anyone know Butch Jones' record in games where he isn't favored to win? Seems like that would be a more telling stat for Saturday.
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I don't know the answer to this, but I think you would need to know the full FBS stats for similar lines to judge whether or not Butch outdid what was expected.

For example, we are 7.5 point underdogs to USC. The best I can tell, teams in that position win about 25% of the time, maybe a little above that.

A similar line for Butch was last year's Va Tech game. Cincy was the 7 point dog, won by 3.

In the bowl game against Vandy, the Commodes were favored by 2. Cincy won by 7.
 
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#68
#68
DarthVol said:
Except that we did. Stop them that is. Best I recall they lost a yard and had to kick a field goal to win it. With a touchdown we win. And I understand that if we had scored it changes the dynamic completely as to what they have to do, but we had stopped them for most of the second half until the game-tying touchdown.

Really not trying to be disagreeable because there is really no way to know what happens if we had scored the touchdown. But as my father-in-law used to say about money, better to miserable with it than miserable without it. At least the touchdown would've improved our chances.

And just for the record, I generally agree with the point that you seem to be making that we are really way to early in this latest new process to know whether Butch is the answer or not. But I like what I've seen so far.

Go Vols!
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It's not stopping them when they know all they need is a field goal and they get a field goal. That's called "losing the game."

I think if they had to score a touchdown, they probably would have. It certainly would have been easier for them to it in that situation than to drive the whole field at the end of the game.

But, you're right, ultimately we'll never know. I just get tired of people on here acting like it was an automatic win if Pig didn't fumble. It was far far from it.
 
#69
#69
oregonvol said:
I disagree. We came close to beating Georgia last year. Everyone wants to focus on the fumble, but there's no guarantee we win even if he scores. We would have still had to stop Aaron Murray from scoring touchdowns and our defense showed that they couldn't stop him from driving down the whole field at the end of the game. There's no reason to suspect they could stop him driving 25 yards.

We can take some positives from the Georgia game, but really if we don't build on it and beat South Carolina, it doesn't mean anything. Dooley had some close losses too. And some of them were against arguably better teams. Time we learned from history and stop crowning guys the savior until they actual win an important game on the field.
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Perhaps. This team is far more disciplined than any Dooley coached. The defense and special teams are far and away better than last years pathetic efforts. Dooley managed to lose with two NFL WRs and an NFL QB on the team as well. This is much better football team but with much less developed talent.

About all you can say right now.
 
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#70
#70
oregonvol said:
I disagree. We came close to beating Georgia last year. Everyone wants to focus on the fumble, but there's no guarantee we win even if he scores. We would have still had to stop Aaron Murray from scoring touchdowns and our defense showed that they couldn't stop him from driving down the whole field at the end of the game. There's no reason to suspect they could stop him driving 25 yards.

We can take some positives from the Georgia game, but really if we don't build on it and beat South Carolina, it doesn't mean anything. Dooley had some close losses too. And some of them were against arguably better teams. Time we learned from history and stop crowning guys the savior until they actual win an important game on the field.
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Dooley had much, much more firepower. He did less with more. CBJ is trying to do more with less.

Huge difference when assessing outcomes.
 
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#71
#71
oregonvol said:
It's not stopping them when they know all they need is a field goal and they get a field goal. That's called "losing the game."

I think if they had to score a touchdown, they probably would have. It certainly would have been easier for them to it in that situation than to drive the whole field at the end of the game.

But, you're right, ultimately we'll never know. I just get tired of people on here acting like it was an automatic win if Pig didn't fumble. It was far far from it.
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Agree regarding the assumptions about it being an automatic win without the fumble. It's easy for fans to focus on the last play instead of any number of plays throughout the game that could have made a difference. (Kind of like my pet-peeve about the clock at the end of the game. Why strain at the replay to put 1.3 seconds back on the clock at the end of the game, if you're not concerned about several seconds that run off any number of times throughout a game that could also make a difference?)

Back to the point, strange things can and often do happen in overtime. And their kicker had already clanked the upright on what was, for him, a chip shot. I still like our odds without the fumble.
 
#72
#72
Some more fun stats for the Vols all-time after a bye week:

Vols are 78-37-9 after an open date

General Neyland was 10-0-3 (6-0 SEC)

Dooley was 1-2 (0-2 SEC)

Kiffin was 0-1 (0-1 SEC)

Fulmer was 25-8 (23-8 SEC)

Majors was 16-13-2 (3-12-2 SEC)

Battle was 7-2 (4-2 SEC)

Dickey was 8-0 (6-0 SEC)
 
#73
#73
Well, folks, Coach Jones' record after 10+ days off goes to 11-4, and 9-1 after the pure bye.

We had a coach actually help the team this week. He called a timeout on that play where USC had four to the left and lined up their TE at right tackle.

That the kind of play Spurrier has been punking us with for 20+ years.

Butch sniffed it out, shut it down, and USC end up missing a FG.

Then Spurrier starts burning his timeouts for kicks and giggle and we made 'em pay.

Rocky Top!
 
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