Can Tennessee climb the ladder at all tomorrow?

[UTFranklinVol]

I would argue that Heupel made Hooker great .... not the other way around.

I would argue it's both, not either or. Hooker (with Hyatt) were perfect for Huepel's system. However Huepel could not repeat this feat with Milton which is a hit to his credibility as a coach that could do more with less especially if you listen to these yahoos that believe Milton will get drafted to the NFL.

Now Heupel gets Nico who is way more highly coveted than Milton or Hooker so this year is a big test of the whole "Huepel can do more with less" idea. If he can't do it with a 5* QB that would be a huge strike against him.

Then he has Merklinger behind Nico, that's two highly sought after QBs. Huepel should surely win 11-12 games if he could win 10 games with Hooker, right? Sadly I don't believe it works like that. I think something in Hooker just clicked im 2022 and UT got lucky to have him. Remember that Hooker wasn't even supposed to be that starter. All the coaches thought Milton was better in fall practice.

Just goes to show sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you have a coach that can make his own luck. We need the latter.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

The unfortunate truth is NOW with no limits to roster other than 85 for most, therefore the impact of each HS class is not as tangible as a predictor of the future. No 25 initial counters that really gated progress through additions AND decline through transfer departures when you had to sit a year. The rich will still be richer, but they will be more vulnerable to negative impacts through transfer. Even if they match losses in the portal they lose experience in the program.

Just limiting the discussion to HS kids, since they are so mobile, there is a big chance increasing numbers of EACH class never hit the field due the presence of other high profile guys if they stay, or because they lured away with NIL money for teams with a prioritized void or a better shot at getting on the field to audition for the NFL with no NIL increase. So lower value add for signing day victory.

There is still some truth to never up, never in logic, but backfilling this years signing day losses in relative position can absolutely be covered with this years portal and next years HS and portal.

The only definitive analysis will be to look at fall rosters and see if NET roster closed ground on the leaders by all methods. Signing day studies are not the value they used to be. Picking up even late (May) experienced portal additions can change roster dynamics and erase current HS class deficiencies. Teams that master that science will greatly benefit. Two of last years late guys did not show up due to injury but our LB and WR could be huge impact this year instead. But it shows our ability to play in that market. That is why some of the attacks on our collective are worthless. Just winning high profile battles is not the objective, total roster improvement is. Can't be judged till the end of the road.

NIL and the portal should definitely benefit programs like Tennessee and democratize the system. If a 5* QB is going to walk away from UGA because he can't compete with another 5* QB there then we should be able to take advantage of that (if needed). And any program with a bigger economic base should benefit from NIL and Tennessee is a way bigger economic base than Alabama, for instance which is why Ole Nicky HATES NIL.

 

[LouderVol]

It would not be accurate to drop a random 8 because you would assume if you forced a team to cut players from its class then they would cut the lowest ranked players and not their highly coveted 4 and 5 stars.

man you are going out of your way to make some weird arguments.

why would they be cutting guys? Recruiting is a process, you are getting guys to commit whenever you can. and now with no limit on how many you can sign there is no cut off on how big your class CAN be.

further each school is going to bring in different guys, there is no standardized bell curve of recruits that applies to every school. Georgia is tied for the largest class, and still has the highest average. Our bell curve looks a lot better than Miami who is #3 overall, but yeah its worse than UGA's. if you gave UGA 4 more roster slots they wouldn't just fill them with 3*s, just like we wouldn't either.

 

[MarcoVol]

I would argue it's both, not either or. Hooker (with Hyatt) were perfect for Huepel's system. However Huepel could not repeat this feat with Milton which is a hit to his credibility as a coach that could do more with less especially if you listen to these yahoos that believe Milton will get drafted to the NFL.

Now Heupel gets Nico who is way more highly coveted than Milton or Hooker so this year is a big test of the whole "Huepel can do more with less" idea. If he can't do it with a 5* QB that would be a huge strike against him.

Then he has Merklinger behind Nico, that's two highly sought after QBs. Huepel should surely win 11-12 games if he could win 10 games with Hooker, right? Sadly I don't believe it works like that. I think something in Hooker just clicked im 2022 and UT got lucky to have him. Remember that Hooker wasn't even supposed to be that starter. All the coaches thought Milton was better in fall practice.

Just goes to show sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you have a coach that can make his own luck. We need the latter.

Heup’s track record with QBs over multiple seasons shows it’s more likely he’s the reason HH was able to be great here.

And of course he wasn’t gonna replicate that this year. HH was a Heisman candidate. Not gonna have that every season by the same position. Gotta stop acting like Heup didn’t have success with Milton tho. Threw for 20 TD / 5 INT while rushing for 300 and 7 TDs.

 

[MarcoVol]

NIL and the portal should definitely benefit programs like Tennessee and democratize the system. If a 5* QB is going to walk away from UGA because he can't compete with another 5* QB there then we should be able to take advantage of that (if needed). And any program with a bigger economic base should benefit from NIL and Tennessee is a way bigger economic base than Alabama, for instance which is why Ole Nicky HATES NIL.

We’ll get our own 5* QBs from the HS ranks

 

[UTFranklinVol]

You don't understand how those Class rankings are compiled at all .... class size does mean a lot!

Not based on the formula that 247 uses. The last few players in your class contribute almost nothing to the weighted average. What matter the most is the quality of your top few players. They get all or almost all of their rating factored into the formula. As 247 states, they try to remove all possible bias, including class size bias.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Heup’s track record with QBs over multiple seasons shows it’s more likely he’s the reason HH was able to be great here.

And of course he wasn’t gonna replicate that this year. HH was a Heisman candidate. Not gonna have that every season by the same position. Gotta stop acting like Heup didn’t have success with Milton tho. Threw for 20 TD / 5 INT while rushing for 300 and 7 TDs.

I guess that depends on what you mean by "had success with Milton". He was no better than the top of the bottom half of all SEC QBs and he showed no progression in his development making all the same mistakes in his last season as he did when he got to Tennessee. The only reason he started for UT is that Hooker was gone and Nico clearly wasn't ready.

And Hooker wasn't a Heisman candidate before he got to UT, so your argument is that Heupel turned Hooker from a benches transfer QB to a Heisman QB. Well Milton was the same benched transfer QB. Seems pretty apples to apples to me of you believe the theory.

I choose to believe Hooker blossomed in his own right at the right time and UT happened to have him then. Milton never blossomed and now we will see what Nico can do under Heupel.

 

[MarcoVol]

I guess that depends on what you mean by "had success with Milton". He was no better than the top of the bottom half of all SEC QBs and he showed no progression in his development making all the same mistakes in his last season as he did when he got to Tennessee. The only reason he started for UT is that Hooker was gone and Nico clearly wasn't ready.

And Hooker wasn't a Heisman candidate before he got to UT, so your argument is that Heupel turned Hooker from a benches transfer QB to a Heisman QB. Well Milton was the same benched transfer QB. Seems pretty apples to apples to me of you believe the theory.

I choose to believe Hooker blossomed in his own right at the right time and UT happened to have him then. Milton never blossomed and now we will see what Nico can do under Heupel.

Except you’re not gonna have the same success every single year. Players are different even if situations are the same.

Not trying to take anything away from HH, but he doesn’t do what he did without Heupel. Heupel has coached more than 2 QBs in his career.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Can you understand that both Georgia and Alabama have much better recruiting bases than Tennessee does? All Georgia ever needed to do was keep their in-state kids at home. Guys like Jamal Lewis, Deon Grant, Cosey Coleman, Fred White and Steve Johnson were vital cogs on Tennessee's 1998 National Championship team .... Today, those caliber of players from Georgia are staying home (except for Mike Matthews!) ....

On 247 Georgia only landed TWO of the top 10 players in their state and didn't take either of the top 2. On Rivals UGA only got 2 of the top 17 players. Tennessee got more top 10 players from Georgia than Georgia did, according to Rivals.

Alabama took more top 10 players from their state, but not as many as Auburn did, including the #1 player went to Auburn and #3 player went to Tennessee.

I don't think Bama and Georgia benefit from their own states as much as you'd like to believe. Top teams recruit nationally just as Tennessee always has.

 

[BowlBrother85]

On 247 Georgia only landed TWO of the top 10 players in their state and didn't take either of the top 2. On Rivals UGA only got 2 of the top 17 players. Tennessee got more top 10 players from Georgia than Georgia did, according to Rivals.

Alabama took more top 10 players from their state, but not as many as Auburn did, including the #1 player went to Auburn and #3 player went to Tennessee.

I don't think Bama and Georgia benefit from their own states as much as you'd like to believe. Top teams recruit nationally just as Tennessee always has.

.... and it's still true that Georgia and Alabama have much better recruiting bases to draw from!

 

[UTFranklinVol]

man you are going out of your way to make some weird arguments.

why would they be cutting guys? Recruiting is a process, you are getting guys to commit whenever you can. and now with no limit on how many you can sign there is no cut off on how big your class CAN be.

further each school is going to bring in different guys, there is no standardized bell curve of recruits that applies to every school. Georgia is tied for the largest class, and still has the highest average. Our bell curve looks a lot better than Miami who is #3 overall, but yeah its worse than UGA's. if you gave UGA 4 more roster slots they wouldn't just fill them with 3*s, just like we wouldn't either.

If you want to compare Georgia's class to Tennessees class but Georgia has 6 more players at 28 than Tennessee at 22, then a true measure of the quality of the class is to remove the bottom 6 Georgia recruits and compare the top 22 players.

If you give Georgia 4 more roster spots and you gave Tennessee 4 more roster spots who do you think would do a better job of filling those spots from a player ranking standpoint? Georgia probably will BUT if all the statistical likelyhood that they get 4 more top recruits is not good and it's even worse for Tennessee most likely.

If you want to "compared" team recruiting classes regardless of class size then you take the team with the most players and remove the lowest ranked players. Then compare the rest apples to apples. Pretty simple. This is how the weighted average works in class rankings. The highest rated players get almost all of their value "weighted in" to the overall class score while the bottom players get almost none, even if your bottom players are 4* it doesn't matter. That's how the formula works. They are comparing the top players from each school and the further down the list you go the less it matters.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

.... and it's still true that Georgia and Alabama have much better recruiting bases to draw from!

Yes but they aren't getting any outsized advantage from it. UT can compete easily with those teams in those states for their players.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Except you’re not gonna have the same success every single year. Players are different even if situations are the same.

That's my point. It's more about the players than the coach. If the coach was pulling all the weight then UT should be winning 10 games every year regardless of the QB. But that's not what happened.

If we have Nico and then Jake and we never win 10 games with either one then it's more likely that I am right and Hooker just got hot at the right time and had an AMAZING receiver in Hyatt to throw to which is what I choose to believe until Heupel proves otherwise.

 

[BowlBrother85]

Yes but they aren't getting any outsized advantage from it. UT can compete easily with those teams in those states for their players.

That is ridiculous. In most cycles, they do utilize their base more. You make the dumbest arguments.

 

[LouderVol]

If you want to compare Georgia's class to Tennessees class but Georgia has 6 more players at 28 than Tennessee at 22, then a true measure of the quality of the class is to remove the bottom 6 Georgia recruits and compare the top 22 players.

If you give Georgia 4 more roster spots and you gave Tennessee 4 more roster spots who do you think would do a better job of filling those spots from a player ranking standpoint? Georgia probably will BUT if all the statistical likelyhood that they get 4 more top recruits is not good and it's even worse for Tennessee most likely.

If you want to "compared" team recruiting classes regardless of class size then you take the team with the most players and remove the lowest ranked players. Then compare the rest apples to apples. Pretty simple. This is how the weighted average works in class rankings. The highest rated players get almost all of their value "weighted in" to the overall class score while the bottom players get almost none, even if your bottom players are 4* it doesn't matter. That's how the formula works. They are comparing the top players from each school and the further down the list you go the less it matters.

you were the one who rejected the weighted averages. That's where I started. now you are circling back to it for no reason at all.

if you want to compare the ACTUAL classes instead of just cherry picking, you use the average I started with. but even with your top 10 only our average looks pretty good, and better than our ranking, something you ignored when I posted it earlier.

Your suggested "simple" solution isn't a good/equal comparison. which makes it a pretty crappy comparison. You aren't getting good data if you just arbitrarily drop the worst players from ONLY one of the data sets. You as the observer are applying your own biases to the data to get a predetermined result you want. instead of looking at the data objectively and seeing what it ACTUALLY says, and then forming an opinion from there.

 

[LouderVol]

Yes but they aren't getting any outsized advantage from it. UT can compete easily with those teams in those states for their players.

sure they are. not only is their MORE talent as a set number of players, but there is better talent as far as how good their guys are. For instance the state of Tennessee's #1 recruit would be #15 in Georgia. So Georgia getting "just" their #3 guy, is far far better than Tennessee getting our #3 guy, or in this case even our #1.

being able to cherry pick players like that from your home state is a huge advantage even if you don't build the majority of your class from inside your own borders.

For instance if we traded the top 2 instate TN recruits that UT got, for the top 2 instate recruits that UGA got, TN would come out much much better for it. trading those two 2 players would move us up to #8, and barely behind #7. that is a HUGE advantage.

 

[a vol n tears]

Maybe just wait until next season and look at the players in the 2 deep and compare.
Yes, I’m sure there will be injuries throughout the season, and that is where stacking talent comes in but I also think if Heupel continues to sign 1 or two 5* every year, and 10or eleven 4 star guys, he will build a formidable roster. Then his coaching has to compete with the SEC’s upper echelon coaches. Not proven that yet.
one other thing every great team has, is a QB that plays great.

 

[Devo182]

Well we moved up to 11th, so the answer was yes.

Florida nosediving helped for one of those spots we moved up. Makes me happy

 

[Devo182]

Then his coaching has to compete with the SEC’s upper echelon coaches. Not proven that yet.

Well, except for taking the #19 most talented roster all the way to #1 in the entire country, while blazing over 3 of the last 4 national champions (Bama, LSU, Clemson)...all in year 2...

He's beaten every SEC team he's faced except UGA (who has during their historic run?) and Ole Miss (only one matchup played and it was stolen)

And all with a fraction of the talent of some of those "upper echelon" teams. Isn't that coaching?

But sure

 

[a vol n tears]

View attachment 603960


Well, except for taking the #19 most talented roster all the way to #1 in the entire country, while blazing over 3 of the last 4 national champions (Bama, LSU, Clemson)...all in year 2...

He's beaten every SEC team he's faced except UGA (who has during their historic run?) and Ole Miss (only one matchup played and it was stolen)

And all with a fraction of the talent of some of those "upper echelon" teams. Isn't that coaching?

But sure

And lost 4 games this year, and 2 of those were to a school with lower rated recruits (Missouri) than Tenn and a team that has a terrible coach and struggling to recruit.
But sure!!!!

 

[LouderVol]

And lost 4 games this year, and 2 of those were to a school with lower rated recruits (Missouri) than Tenn and a team that has a terrible coach and struggling to recruit.
But sure!!!!

I believe you are confused. Missouri is not the plural of Missour. you only listed one team. and besides, the base argument is incorrect. Florida still has more talent than us.

Everyone knew 2022 was a special year, if you were honestly thinking 2023 was going to the same, or better, you either weren't paying attention, or know nothing about football.

the fact that in year 3 8-4 is considered a down year is pretty miraculous. we spent the better part of the last 15 years just hoping to get to a bowl game and wondering if Vandy was going to beat us again. Now our fans are upset that we haven't replaced Bama or Georgia at the top of the SEC. would a little perspective kill you guys?

 

[a vol n tears]

I believe you are confused. Missouri is not the plural of Missour. you only listed one team. and besides, the base argument is incorrect. Florida still has more talent than us.

Everyone knew 2022 was a special year, if you were honestly thinking 2023 was going to the same, or better, you either weren't paying attention, or know nothing about football.

the fact that in year 3 8-4 is considered a down year is pretty miraculous. we spent the better part of the last 15 years just hoping to get to a bowl game and wondering if Vandy was going to beat us again. Now our fans are upset that we haven't replaced Bama or Georgia at the top of the SEC. would a little perspective kill you guys?

I’m not talking the past 15 years. I’m using this year’s team. We “supposedly” have higher recruited talent than Missouri. Florida was/is in shambles with their coach and only won 5 games. Can’t be denied.
I want CJH to exceel. I really like him. I love the culture he’s creating
However, my original point was this year’s recruiting class (+ continued) is good enough to compete talent wise, with anyone on the schedule. My caution is, is he a good enough coach to out coach the best of the SEC.

Tenn history winning % in 119 seasons, is less than 70%
I like championships but don’t let Saban’s run trick you into thinking Tenn can do it. In the Fulmer run, best of modern day, they won 1 NC.
I LIKE Heupel

 

[Orange_Crush]

Heup’s track record with QBs over multiple seasons shows it’s more likely he’s the reason HH was able to be great here.

And of course he wasn’t gonna replicate that this year. HH was a Heisman candidate. Not gonna have that every season by the same position. Gotta stop acting like Heup didn’t have success with Milton tho. Threw for 20 TD / 5 INT while rushing for 300 and 7 TDs.

He's seeing players as rated commodities, as opposed to people with different strengths and weaknesses.

Milton apparently had all the tools except for quick processing time and "feel" for throw timing. That seemed to be an Achilles heel.

I truly believe this poster is a concern troll.

 

[Orange_Crush]

I guess that depends on what you mean by "had success with Milton". He was no better than the top of the bottom half of all SEC QBs and he showed no progression in his development making all the same mistakes in his last season as he did when he got to Tennessee. The only reason he started for UT is that Hooker was gone and Nico clearly wasn't ready.

And Hooker wasn't a Heisman candidate before he got to UT, so your argument is that Heupel turned Hooker from a benches transfer QB to a Heisman QB. Well Milton was the same benched transfer QB. Seems pretty apples to apples to me of you believe the theory.

I choose to believe Hooker blossomed in his own right at the right time and UT happened to have him then. Milton never blossomed and now we will see what Nico can do under Heupel.

Yep. Definitely a concern troll.

 

[Orange_Crush]

View attachment 603960


Well, except for taking the #19 most talented roster all the way to #1 in the entire country, while blazing over 3 of the last 4 national champions (Bama, LSU, Clemson)...all in year 2...

He's beaten every SEC team he's faced except UGA (who has during their historic run?) and Ole Miss (only one matchup played and it was stolen)

And all with a fraction of the talent of some of those "upper echelon" teams. Isn't that coaching?

But sure

Well, when you put it like that, he chooses to believe it was luck, and that Hooker improved independent of Heupel.