CFP Scenarios (merged)

#776
#776
volbound1700 said:
Oregon and USC do not play this year. Oregon has home games left against Washington and Utah and then travels to Oregon State. Definitely a tough stretch and per Oregon fans, toughest stretch they have left. They then get Pac12 Championship.
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USC would play Oregon in this game on December 2nd if they both win their remaining games;

The 2022 Pac-12 Football Championship Game, presented by 76, is set to return to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Friday, Dec. 2. For the first time, the two teams with the best conference winning percentage in the Pac-12 will meet in the game to battle for the title.
The game is set for a 5p PT/ 6p MT kickoff with live coverage on FOX and additional pre and postgame coverage on Pac-12 Network.
 
#777
#777
All you had to do was beat the dumb and dumber back into the bushes. The last 15 years would have vanished. You did not. You made it worse. Welcome to the SEC.
 
#783
#783
After the way things played out today i think it is important to put up lots of points in our remaining 3 games. Show that this week was an outlier. Todays loss is fresh right now but when we look at full resumes in 4 weeks it will be viewed in much better light if our offense can get back to being efficient the rest of the way
 
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#785
#785
DocVol said:
Latest ESPN Projection. Yikes.
Going to need a lot more help than you all keep proclaiming.
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ESPN is not the committee. They were complaining about TCU last week and they are making excuses about OSU's struggles - seems the wind was blowing.

Tennessee needs to win out and win out in the same manner they were winning before UGA.
 
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#791
#791
DocVol said:
Oregon or USC will get in as a one loss PAC champ. Not sure what everyone here keeps overlooking that fact.
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Andrew8210 said:
I just don't see how anyone could rank Oregon ahead of Tennesssee. Both have 1 loss to the same team. Oregon lost by 46. Tennessee lost by 14. Tennessee has better wins.
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TN has ZERO chance to making their Conference Championship. Unfortunately I think this a year where having 2 divisions in a conference hurts a team. If SEC uses the top 2 teams for their championship, it might be TN vs GA
 
#792
#792
ESPN just showed after today we still have 62% chance make the playoffs same as it was entering today
 
#793
#793
Tennessee won't fall below 5th or 6th (and it's possible they never fall out of the top 4) and plenty of help is on the way.

TCU has Baylor and Texas left as well as Iowa State. Baylor and Texas are BOTH favored by FPI. TCU likely loses a game and is eliminated from playoff contention.

Oregon has 3 formidable opponents in Washington, Utah, and Oregon State. They could easily drop another game.

Ohio State and Michigan will play a play-in game, and Michigan also has a formidable Illinois. While I doubt either loses outside of to one another, one of them will likely be eliminated from the top 4.

USC still has #12 UCLA and a surging team in Notre Dame.

LSU should make the SEC Championship game and UGA will likely eliminate them.

I dont see a scenario where an SEC West team gets in... a 3 loss LSU or 2 loss Bama. A 2 loss LSU even with an SEC championship is borderline.

There is just way too much stress on all the other teams while we should win out and win big to solidfy a spot. I hate we won't see our guys in Mercedes-Benz Stadium but couldn't care less if we make the playoffs.

Final Committee ranking:
1- UGA
2- Ohio State (unless they lose to Michigan)
3- Tennessee
4- whoever doesn't eliminate themselves.

Your thoughts? A lot of tweets saying our playoff chances are zero, but I'm not seeing that in the future schedules.
 
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#794
#794
NcVolfan24 said:
Tennessee won't fall below 5th or 6th (and it's possible they never fall out of the top 4) and plenty of help is on the way.

TCU has Baylor and Texas left as well as Iowa State. Baylor and Texas are BOTH favored by FPI. TCU likely loses a game and is eliminated from playoff contention.

Oregon has 3 formidable opponents in Washington, Utah, and Oregon State. They could easily drop another game.

Ohio State and Michigan will play a play-in game, and Michigan also has a formidable Illinois. While I doubt either loses outside of to one another, one of them will likely be eliminated from the top 4.

USC still has #12 UCLA and a surging team in Notre Dame.

LSU should make the SEC Championship game and UGA will likely eliminate them.

I dont see a scenario where an SEC West team gets in... a 3 loss LSU or 2 loss Bama. A 2 loss LSU even with an SEC championship is borderline.

There is just way too much stress on all the other teams while we should win out and win big to solidfy a spot. I hate we won't see our guys in Mercedes-Benz Stadium but couldn't care less if we make the playoffs.

Final Committee ranking:
1- UGA
2- Ohio State (unless the lose to Michigan)
3- Tennessee
4- whoever doesn't eliminate themselves.

Your thoughts? A lot of tweets saying our playoff chances are zero, but I'm not seeing that in the future schedules.
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I agree with this #3 ranking come final polls. And this allows us to KO Ohio state and get the rematch with Georgia in the national championship
 
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#795
#795
It will work itself out….TCU (must) lose a game and the Clemsons lose was (huge) for us on such a low day. We just need to take care of business. So while they beat on each other in these championship games. Tennessee is healing and getting healthy.
 
#796
#796
DocVol said:
Latest ESPN Projection. Yikes.
Going to need a lot more help than you all keep proclaiming.
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If you look at it, Oregon only has one more vote than Tennessee and Michigan Ohio state still have to play. 1 vote is not far off.
 
#797
#797
NcVolfan24 said:
Tennessee won't fall below 5th or 6th (and it's possible they never fall out of the top 4) and plenty of help is on the way.

TCU has Baylor and Texas left as well as Iowa State. Baylor and Texas are BOTH favored by FPI. TCU likely loses a game and is eliminated from playoff contention.

Oregon has 3 formidable opponents in Washington, Utah, and Oregon State. They could easily drop another game.

Ohio State and Michigan will play a play-in game, and Michigan also has a formidable Illinois. While I doubt either loses outside of to one another, one of them will likely be eliminated from the top 4.

USC still has #12 UCLA and a surging team in Notre Dame.

LSU should make the SEC Championship game and UGA will likely eliminate them.

I dont see a scenario where an SEC West team gets in... a 3 loss LSU or 2 loss Bama. A 2 loss LSU even with an SEC championship is borderline.

There is just way too much stress on all the other teams while we should win out and win big to solidfy a spot. I hate we won't see our guys in Mercedes-Benz Stadium but couldn't care less if we make the playoffs.

Final Committee ranking:
1- UGA
2- Ohio State (unless they lose to Michigan)
3- Tennessee
4- whoever doesn't eliminate themselves.

Your thoughts? A lot of tweets saying our playoff chances are zero, but I'm not seeing that in the future schedules.
Click to expand...
I see us at (6) because of all the talking up about the TCU disrespect and pushing how great Oregon is playing. We can sit back and watch them all beat on one another while we take care of business. Then we can heal up and get healthy.
 
#798
#798
I want to also add that I don't think a team that doesn't win their conference should be in, but that's not the current system. Heupel deserves coach of the year if we win out the rest of the way and while I would love to be in the playoffs, I would be ecstatic over a 1 loss team that I expected a lot less from. If we don't get in, we probably have a 1 loss season. If we do get in, we have a chance at the National title. I see a great year either way.
 
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#799
#799
If the committee puts less value on conference championships, then TN is squarely in.. but because there is a potential of 3 teams going into their games undefeated, it makes the those games more valuable
 
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#800
#800
DocVol said:
Oregon or USC will get in as a one loss PAC champ. Not sure what everyone here keeps overlooking that fact.
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There's about a zero percent chance that USC is getting in even if they win the PAC12 championship. They've essentially looked pretty bad against everyone they've played, and with a fairly weak schedule up until this point. They've got to beat UCLA, Notre Dame, and in theory Oregon to be fair, so maybe that would be enough to get them in. I seriously doubt they are able to do that.

On the flip side with Oregon, our only mutual opponent with them is Georgia where they got beat by 45 on a neutral field and we got beat by 14 at Georgia. They certainly will look at that. They'll also look at the metrics they use to determine seeding, which we currently are ahead of them in every category. Those things matter.

I firmly believe we'll be the highest ranked 1 loss team in the nation when it is all said and done. Our resume is better than anyone not named Georgia at this point. Currently there will only be at best 3 undefeated teams in the nation by the time the playoffs role around, which to me means we'll earn that 4th seed. If TCU slips up, I could see us even getting the 3rd seed.
 
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