CFP Scenarios (merged)

#1,002
#1,002
JMSqb11 said:
Bama coming into this week was a 1 loss team with a 3 point loss to the #1 team.... They were not overrated being at #6....I do think they will get the bias and stay inside the Top 10 though.
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I see them at #12 until they play Ole Miss.
 
#1,003
#1,003
ZZ13 said:
I understand. I meant go NFL Jr and realign all the teams into eight conferences. I mean if it’s going to basically be a professional league (NIL, free agency to jump to another team) might as well run it like one.
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There is no overriding authority like in the NFL or high school to align the conferences. Each are independent. No way conferences go for that due to the money factor. What you may see overtime is some conferences going away while others get bigger. Changing the conference alignment impacts all sports - not just football.
 
#1,005
#1,005
JMSqb11 said:
TCU is going to leapfrog after beating the heavyweight Texas Tech at 4-4 by 10 points?
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Yes this is the 2nd week and the clamor last week was TCU was slighted by the media. They are undefeated. Hopefully Ewers is on tgt and Texas pulls off the upset.
 
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#1,006
#1,006
Georgia is clear top team and I don't see them losing a game. LSU can play their best game and UGA wins by double digits unless they just do not show up in Atlanta.

I prefer Ohio St to win rather than Michigan, and I hate saying that. Michigan's schedule is so weak they'll have to win Big 10 to get in. Ohio State takes the second spot.

I think we'll end up at 3rd. We have Missouri, South Carolina, and Vandy. If we lose one of those we don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

I think the fourth spot goes to TCU if they win out or a one loss Pac 12 champ. I think the committee would like to avoid a GA TN rematch so soon, and I think Ohio St vs us would be a great matchup. I know Oregon has already played UGA, but that is not the same Oregon team we saw on week one.
 
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#1,007
#1,007
TNBV said:
Keep telling yourself that and you will be very disappointed come selection day
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Sudden Impact said:
Why because I think they will.
Please explain.
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Good grief. If TCU is ahead of us, that’s 4 teams. UGA, Michigan, OSU, TCU. OSU or U of M will drop because they play. That leaves us at 4.

“But a Pac 12 team!” The committee has shown that they value strength of schedule. Otherwise Bama wouldn’t have been ahead of TCU in the first ranking. Oregon lost far worse to Georgia on a neutral field than we did in Georgia’s house. They have no wins approaching the quality of our wins over LSU and Alabama. USC lost to a decent but not great Utah team, and may well lose to Notre Dame in a few weeks. It won’t matter anyway, because this coming week is the lowest we’ll be in the ranking at 4 or 5. A one-loss Tennessee is the most sure-fire thing outside of an SEC champ UGA and an undefeated B1G Champion.

We lost a game. It happens. Some of y’all are desperate for something to fret over.
 
#1,009
#1,009
Sudden Impact said:
Yes this is the 2nd week and the clamor last week was TCU was slighted by the media. They are undefeated. Hopefully Ewers is on tgt and Texas pulls off the upset.
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The Media does not run the CFP.... This is the exact reason the CFP was created and the members are constantly term limited out....

TCU being undefeated with two straight struggle wins over .500 teams by 10 points isn't helping their case. They aren't winning with style points. That is why the CFP put then at #7 and the media had a melt down becasue they couldn't understand.

TCU may move up from #7 but it is due to teams in front of them losing. They did nothing this weekend on their own to justify moving up to the 4 spot. And there is nothing to justify the #1 team dropping out of the top 4 after losing to #3.

This whole notion that TCU is undefeated and will shoot up the rankings because they beat the likes of Texas Tech and WVU in back to back weeks are hilarious.
 
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#1,010
#1,010
My playoff prediction along with W-L:

1. Georgia 13-0
2. Ohio St 13-0
3. Tennessee 11-1
4. Michigan 11-1
5. Oregon 11-2
6. Clemson 11-2
7. TCU 11-2
8. LSU 10-3
9. Utah 10-3
10. USC 10-2

PAC 12 championship will be Utah and Oregon. If Oregon is 1 loss champion, then they boot out Michigan, become the 3 seed, and we move to 4.

TCU will lose to Texas or Baylor, and will probably lose in the Big 12 championship game. Texas most likely to be Big 12 champion.

Clemson is starting to go off the rails a bit and will lose one more. UNC will drop one as well, either to NC State or Clemson in ACC championship.

The short of it is this:
Tennessee and Michigan still have inside track, and there will be a lot of two loss teams. Any one loss champion from ACC, Big 12, and PAC 12 will boot out Michigan. A second one loss champion makes committee think long and hard what to do with us, but confident we’ll still be in.
 
#1,011
#1,011
Vol in Buckeye Land said:
Good grief. If TCU is ahead of us, that’s 4 teams. UGA, Michigan, OSU, TCU. OSU or U of M will drop because they play. That leaves us at 4.

“But a Pac 12 team!” The committee has shown that they value strength of schedule. Otherwise Bama wouldn’t have been ahead of TCU in the first ranking. Oregon lost far worse to Georgia on a neutral field than we did in Georgia’s house. They have no wins approaching the quality of our wins over LSU and Alabama. USC lost to a decent but not great Utah team, and may well lose to Notre Dame in a few weeks. It won’t matter anyway, because this coming week is the lowest we’ll be in the ranking at 4 or 5. A one-loss Tennessee is the most sure-fire thing outside of an SEC champ UGA and an undefeated B1G Champion.

We lost a game. It happens. Some of y’all are desperate for something to fret over.
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We should want Oregon (realistically) to win the PAC12 even with 1 loss. They can't escape the week 1 loss to UGA. Common opponent between Oregon and Tennessee is Georgia. We lost by 14 in their stadium and oRegon lost by 46 in neutral site. Advantage Tennessee
 
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#1,012
#1,012
JMSqb11 said:
Could be. I just believe they will bill it as a Top 10 vs Top 10 game. Like #9 vs #10 or something like that.
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Maybe in the polls but the CFP will have them out of the top 10. Putting them in the CFP top 10 is a joke at this point. LSU will stumble I do believe and AL will beat Miss. The West could get interesting but LSU holds the tiebreakers against both those teams. If they are tied. So they may after this weekend with a win will have a 2 game & 3 game lead over AL/Miss
 
#1,014
#1,014
Sudden Impact said:
Maybe in the polls but the CFP will have them out of the top 10. Putting them in the CFP top 10 is a joke at this point. LSU will stumble I do believe and AL will beat Miss. The West could get interesting but LSU holds the tiebreakers against both those teams. If they are tied. So they may after this weekend with a win will have a 2 game & 3 game lead over AL/Miss
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At this point, I'm rooting for Ole Miss and yes, Lane Kiffin...... 9-3 regular season for Bama would be like a 6-6 season... I would die from crying so much laughing at the Bammers.

I want Lane Kiffin to retire Saban. Hype and Kelly made some solid wounds.... Kiffin should finish Saban off. No better chance than next week
 
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#1,015
#1,015
People are underestimating Utah’s role in all this. Actually worked out that they lost to Florida, cause 1-loss Utah team absolutely gets in. They have tiebreaker over USC, so they will most likely go to conf champ game.
 
#1,016
#1,016
JMSqb11 said:
The Media does not run the CFP.... This is the exact reason the CFP was created and the members are constantly term limited out....

TCU being undefeated with two straight struggle wins over .500 teams by 10 points isn't helping their case. They aren't winning with style points. That is why the CFP put then at #7 and the media had a melt down becasue they couldn't understand.

TCU may move up from #7 but it is due to teams in front of them losing. They did nothing this weekend on their own to justify moving up to the 4 spot. And there is nothing to justify the #1 team dropping out of the top 4 after losing to #3.

This whole notion that TCU is undefeated and will shoot up the rankings because they beat the likes of Texas Tech and WVU in back to back weeks are hilarious.
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Think what you want but until they lose they will be ahead of Tennessee. May not be right but it is going to be the nature of the beast.
 
#1,017
#1,017
Sudden Impact said:
Think what you want but until they lose they will be ahead of Tennessee. May not be right but it is going to be the nature of the beast.
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There is no scenario where that is even remotely true. Unless you think TCU and Tennessee are competing for the same playoff spot... Which they are not now that clemson lost.
 
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#1,019
#1,019
valoisvol said:
I don’t know why everyone wanted bama to lose that enabled TCU to probably leapfrog us. If bama wins TCU would stay behind them.
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Maybe because it gives us two top ten wins?! And if somehow Bama wins last night and goes to SECCG and upsets GA-no way we get in bc Bama would then go! No way LSU beats GA! LSU loses that game last night they fall outside top ten idk tho
 
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#1,020
#1,020
ZZ13 said:
It’s interesting how the playoffs have devalued the Conference championships. No one on this board seems bothered or upset that we likely won’t win the SEC. We’re all just writing about ways that we can get into the playoffs. I do miss the importance of the conference championships. Would love to see an 8 conference setup with the winners of each conference going to the playoffs. No wild card entries allowed. But wild card entries stimulate viewer interest for ESPN and there would be nothing to argue about if it were a nice logical progression of winning on the field.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if Conference Championship games become a thing of the past when the expanded playoffs hit. It just adds another game where your CFP contenders can lose. We’ll probably move to something like we see in basketball, minus the tourney.
 
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#1,021
#1,021
JMSqb11 said:
There is no scenario where that is even remotely true. Unless you think TCU and Tennessee are competing for the same playoff spot... Which they are not now that clemson lost.
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Are you looking at this week or beyond?
I am only addressing this week, not the future. At present they are competing for the 4th Spot. GA Ohio State Michigan (TCU/Tennessee).
You could throw Oregon into the mix but it is too early.
I am talking about now not the future End of Season scenario.
 
#1,022
#1,022
Sudden Impact said:
Are you looking at this week or beyond. I am only addressing this week, not the future. At present they are competing for the 4th Spot. GA Ohio State Michigan (TCU/Tennessee).
You could throw Oregan into the mix but it is too early.
I am talking about now not the future End of Season scenario.
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Both.

If you are looking at this week and still think TCU ends up #4, I’m baffled.

They won 34-24 vs a .500 Texas Tech. Bama lost to #10 so that’s how TCU gets to 6. Clemson lost so that’s how TCU gets to 5.

Tennessee lost to #3… there is no way we drop out of the top 4 because of our loss and TCU struggling to win vs a .500 team….

If TCU would have blown out Tech, I think there is argument to make about them winning big and having help to shoot up into the Top 4. But the only support they have after this week is because of other teams losing. Them winning by 10 points didn’t give them anything to warrant shooting up.

There is no collective of things they did and other did to make them go “Wow, TCU is a top 4 team….” No one believes they are. Can’t have mediocre teams like Tech and WVU as close wins and expect to be respected among the Top 4
 
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#1,023
#1,023
JMSqb11 said:
Both.

If you are looking at this week and still think TCU ends up #4, I’m baffled.

They won 34-24 vs a .500 Texas Tech. Bama lost to #10 so that’s how TCU gets to 6. Clemson lost so that’s how TCU gets to 5.

Tennessee lost to #3… there is no way we drop out of the top 4 because of our loss and TCU struggling to win vs a .500 team….

If TCU would have blown out Tech, I think there is argument to make about them winning big and having help to shoot up into the Top 4. But the only support they have after this week is because of other teams losing. Them winning by 10 points didn’t give them anything to warrant shooting up.

There is no collective of things they did and other did to make them go “Wow, TCU is a top 4 team….” No one believes they are. Can’t have mediocre teams like Tech and WVU as close wins and expect to be respected among the Top 4
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Yea but for the time being as in Tuesday it looks like they got 4 top teams and they are all undefeated. The Media does not control the CFP but the theme was that TCU got screwed with their ranking in CFP. So I expect them to have a top 4 ranking in CFP regardless of the truth you speak.
 
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#1,024
#1,024
Vol865 said:
If they beat UGA for the SECCG I'd put them in. Conference championships should hold weight.
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So if Ohio St or Mich go undefeated, TCU goes undefeated, Clemson wins the ACC withs one loss and Oregon or USC win the PAC with one loss you'd be ok with no SEC team in the playoffs. That would be four conference champions with better records than the SEC champ. Are you ok with that assuming "conference championships should hold weight".
 
#1,025
#1,025
Irony of timing. Oregon was boat raced by Georgia but it was opening game. Vols screwed the pooch by not competing against the Dawgs and being manhandled but that is a current image of futility even though the score was 14 point loss. Texas needs to pop TCU and west coast teams need to remain unimpressive for Vols to make playoffs. Vols might be in final top 4 due to schedule. Georgia is by far the number 1 team in NCAA Football.
 
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