CFP Scenarios (merged)

[Sudden Impact]

Yeah i have a feeling Tennessee will win out and still be on the outside looking in. I would be satisfied with the Sugar Bowl however. Smashing Missouri,South Carolina and Vanderbilt wont help Tennessee very much.

We have had a successful season, the fan base is energized, the recruiting is up, building a solid Foundation, we have been on GameDay 3 times this year (publicity), no one can match our offense, things are moving in a higher trajectory the list goes on and on when looking to the future. Rome was not built in a day but with this year it has sped up the recovery.
I think we get in as the 3 Seed. Not worried if we don't but we will make it to the CFP this year because this is College Football and Sh*t Happens.

 

[AthensVol2007]

So if Ohio St or Mich go undefeated, TCU goes undefeated, Clemson wins the ACC withs one loss and Oregon or USC win the PAC with one loss you'd be ok with no SEC team in the playoffs. That would be four conference champions with better records than the SEC champ. Are you ok with that assuming "conference championships should hold weight".

I’m not ok with Oregon getting in, USC yes. They have a 1 pt loss on the road. Oregon was out of their game halfway through the 2nd quarter on a neutral site. It’s likely my fandom bias but TN would be more deserving than UO based on the UGA game alone. As bad as we played and as much as they manhandled us, we had opportunities. The feel of the game said we weren’t coming back but with 3+ min left in the game, Hooker missed Fant for a potential TD that makes it a 1 score game with 3 min to go. Again, unlikely we comeback but we at minimum give ourselves life; Oregon never had it.

 

[AthensVol2007]

You can't struggle to beat .500 teams like Texas Tech and WVU by 10 points and expect to surge up the rankings..... They would not be favored over anyone against them in the top 6. Clemson would arguably be the closest betting opponent to TCU.

The fact that we’re calling 2 score games, one on the road and the other up by 3 scores with a garbage TD with under 2 min to play, struggling is asinine in and of itself.

 

[Vol865]

So if Ohio St or Mich go undefeated, TCU goes undefeated, Clemson wins the ACC withs one loss and Oregon or USC win the PAC with one loss you'd be ok with no SEC team in the playoffs. That would be four conference champions with better records than the SEC champ. Are you ok with that assuming "conference championships should hold weight".

I said hold weight not end all be all (under current format). However, I've said for a while when expansion happens any P5 conference championships with no more than 2 losses should get an automatic bid. Rest at large.

But let's look at your scenario. Winner of OSU/Michigan gets a spot, undefeated TCU gets a spot, if UGAs only loss is SECCG they're in so the last spot would come down to an LSU team that beat Bama and UGA or an Oregon team that got murdered by UGA. I'd take LSU as a conference champions in a tougher conference. Or possibly Michigan/OSU loser.

No point in getting worked up over rankings right now. Everyone did that last week and it didn't matter.

 

[JMSqb11]

The fact that we’re calling 2 score games, one on the road and the other up by 3 scores with a garbage TD with under 2 min to play, struggling is asinine in and of itself.

TCU trailed 17-13 to Tech (4-4) in the second half and won 34-24.....
TCU went into 4th Q leading 28-24 WVU (3-5) and won 41-31....

They indeed struggled with very weak teams in back to back weeks...

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Yeah i have a feeling Tennessee will win out and still be on the outside looking in. I would be satisfied with the Sugar Bowl however. Smashing Missouri,South Carolina and Vanderbilt wont help Tennessee very much.

We shouldn't drop below #5 Tuesday.

 

[SockeyeVol]

Looks like Mich, Bama will win, Clemson will lose.

My prediction for next weeks rank:
1.Georgia
2.Ohio state
3.Michigan
4.TCU
5. Vols
6. Bama
Etc

That means if Vols and Georgia win out, we are probably #4 at end of season. And higher if TCU loses (and I think they will).

Looks like Bama lost, so my guess is it will be:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Mich
4. TCU
5. Vols
6. Oregon
etc.

Basically, I think we will be the best of the one-loss teams. If we win out, we just have to hope (1) TCU loses and (2) Georgia wins the SECCG

 

[AthensVol2007]

TCU trailed 17-13 to Tech (4-4) in the second half and won 34-24.....
TCU went into 4th Q leading 28-24 WVU (3-5) and won 41-31....

They indeed struggled with very weak teams in back to back weeks...

Yet you leave out they were up 34-17 on TTU with 2 min to play. Who gives a **** what the score was at an earlier point in the 2nd half, they clamped down and pulled away until a meaningless TD at the end. We’re not very good because we let a 4 loss Pitt team take us to OT or a 4 loss UF team have a shot at the win after blowing a 17 pt lead. I will bet anything that an undefeated B12 champ TCU will be in the F4 despite your repeated assertion they won’t be.

 

[WingT]

If TCU wins out, they are in


Anyone not having them in as an undefeated P5 champ is clueless

 

[JMSqb11]

Looks like Bama lost, so my guess is it will be:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Mich
4. TCU
5. Vols
6. Oregon
etc.

Basically, I think we will be the best of the one-loss teams. If we win out, we just have to hope (1) TCU loses and (2) Georgia wins the SECCG

As long as UGA goes 13-0 and we finish 11-1, we are in the 3rd seed.... TCU is playing for the 4th seed.

 

[JMSqb11]

Yet you leave out they were up 34-17 on TTU with 2 min to play. We’re not very good because we let a 4 loss Pitt team take us to OT or a 4 loss UF team have a shot at the win after blowing a 17 pt lead.

A 10 point win over 4-4 Texas Tech and 10 point win over 3-4 WVU is not the resumê builder you are making it out to be.....

 

[AthensVol2007]

A 10 point win over 4-4 Texas Tech and 10 point win over 3-4 WVU is not the resumê builder you are making it out to be.....

Their SOS is currently ahead of Oregon and UM and will only get stronger playing #3 SOS TX and #19 SOS Baylor. They continue to win they’re in, and it won’t be debatable. If they’re not in, then blow the whole thing up.

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

I smell some hurt feelings in here. Emotional posts are painfully obviously emotional.

Yes we got our butts whooped like a red headed step child, but the teams we needed to lose did just that! Clemson nor Alabama will get in over an 11-1 UT.

A 1 loss Ohio state nor Michigan will get in over UT. Oregon nor USC will jump us.

We need Georgia to win out. We need Texas to beat TCU.

If those two thing happen, JohnnyReb advanced metrics says we have a 92.9% chance of making the CFP.

Even if those things don’t happen, we still have over a 60% chance of getting in, as long as we go undefeated.

 

[JMSqb11]

Their SOS is currently ahead of Oregon and UM and will only get stronger playing #3 SOS TX and #19 SOS Baylor. They continue to win they’re in, and it won’t be debatable. If they’re not in, then blow the whole thing up.

TCU could very well get in the playoff. It doesn't matter to Tennessee. Tennessee's positioning is for the #3 spot. The only way that happens is UGA going 13-0. That would mean UGA #1, OSU/Michigan #2, Tennessee #3, TCU #4.....

The problem the "WE NEED A TCU LOSS" crowd fails to understand is we are vying for a different playoff seed than TCU..... There is no world where TCU keeps Tennessee from getting into the playoff. They aren't competing for the same spot! This occurred with the Clemson loss last night.

 

[WingT]

Lol, undefeated TCU wasnt in per you.... now its a different spot, im glad to see you're seeing the big picture a lil


Everyone is competing to be in the top 4, undefeated tcu gets one.... we need them to lose

 

[JMSqb11]

Lol, undefeated TCU wasnt in per you.... now its a different spot, im glad to see you're seeing the big picture a lil

Things are dynamic. I was very clear that I thought Clemson would be undefeated.... Can't thanos snap that loss away. However, their loss helps Tennessee. Every single one of you TCU fan boys were so hyped up that TCU would keep us from the playoff when we are now vying for a different playoff seed than TCU. This ain't hard to comprehend.

Simply put after last night, Tennessee's playoff seeding ceiling is #3... TCU's is #4 with the Clemson and Bama Loss. Simple math.

And my point will not change. TCU has zero bearing on Tennessee getting into the playoff. I said that last night and will continue to say it until selection day.

 

[GoDucks349]

I said hold weight not end all be all (under current format). However, I've said for a while when expansion happens any P5 conference championships with no more than 2 losses should get an automatic bid. Rest at large.

But let's look at your scenario. Winner of OSU/Michigan gets a spot, undefeated TCU gets a spot, if UGAs only loss is SECCG they're in so the last spot would come down to an LSU team that beat Bama and UGA or an Oregon team that got murdered by UGA. I'd take LSU as a conference champions in a tougher conference. Or possibly Michigan/OSU loser.

No point in getting worked up over rankings right now. Everyone did that last week and it didn't matter.

I agree Oregon got murdered by Georgia, no question of that. However, I do believe a 1 loss Oregon or USC team gets a playoff spot. The PAC is a lot stronger this year than it has been in recent years. A two loss LSU team and a one loss GA team are certainly valid playoff contenders. I certainly do not believe a 2 loss LSU team should get in over a one loss PAC team this year.

 

[AthensVol2007]

TCU could very well get in the playoff. It doesn't matter to Tennessee. Tennessee's positioning is for the #3 spot. The only way that happens is UGA going 13-0. That would mean UGA #1, OSU/Michigan #2, Tennessee #3, TCU #4.....

The problem the "WE NEED A TCU LOSS" crowd fails to understand is we are vying for a different playoff seed than TCU..... There is no world where TCU keeps Tennessee from getting into the playoff. They aren't competing for the same spot!

Not after yesterday’s other results, no their future outcomes don’t affect us other than a loss guarantees they’re out and we’re in. The elephant in the room will be Oregon or USC and how the committee views a one loss P-12 champ. If USC ends the season with 3 wins vs a top 10-12 UCLA, likely ranked 8-3 ND and top 5-7 Oregon team and their only loss being a 1 pt road loss, I don’t think anyone can be surprised if they slide in.

 

[WingT]

It is hard to comprehend, for you

Undefeated tcu gets in before a one loss non conference champ.... that dynamic doesnt change, other teams might help us...but this fact is irrefutable

 

[JMSqb11]

It is hard to comprehend, for you

Undefeated tcu gets in before a one loss non conference champ.... that dynamic doesnt change, other teams might help us...but this fact is irrefutable

TCU being undefeated gets them the 4 spot.... Tennessee at 11-1 would be 3 spot. CFP won't set up a 1 vs 4 SEC Semi Final game. While the CFP doesn't follow precedent religiously, no shot they would put two SEC teams in a semi. And since Tennessee is a lock for a playoff spot at 11-1, we are not competing with TCU, PAC12, or ACC Champ for the 4th and final playoff spot.

To KISS it (Keep it simple, stupid), there is no scenario where it would be UGA, Ohio State/Michigan, TCU, Tennessee... The only way we would wind up the 4th seed is if UGA dropped the SEC title game to fall to 2 or 3 and we get put at 4 to avoid an all SEC semi final.

 

[TNBV]

TCU being undefeated gets them the 4 spot.... Tennessee at 11-1 would be 3 spot. CFP won't set up a 1 vs 4 SEC Semi Final game. While the CFP doesn't follow precedent religiously, no shot they would put two SEC teams in a semi. And since Tennessee is a lock for a playoff spot at 11-1, we are not competing with TCU, PAC12, or ACC Champ for the 4th and final playoff spot.

You saying UT is a "Lock" for the 3rd playoff spot regardless of the possibility of TCU going undefeated and a 1 loss Pac 12 champion team shows an absolute disregard for common sense.

 

[WingT]

A close michigan/osu loss and a one loss pac 12 champ will have them and us fighting for the 4 spot with
Undefeated sec champ
Undefeated b10 champ
Undefeated b12 champ


A tcu loss is the best help left, then a osu/mich game being a blow out

 

[JMSqb11]

You saying UT is a "Lock" for the 3rd playoff spot regardless of the possibility of TCU going undefeated and a 1 loss Pac 12 champion team shows an absolute disregard for common sense.

Tennessee debuting as the #1 ranked team in the first playoff rankings and finishing 11-1 is a lock for the playoffs. No other team that debuted at #1 in the first CFP rankings have missed the playoffs with 0/1 losses.... In fact the only team that did was 10-2 MSU....

Yall are getting worked up and doing mental gymnastics for thinking Tennessee is not a lock for the playoffs if we finish at 11-1.......

 

[WingT]

JMS logic, second in your division is better than undefeated in your conference

 

[JMSqb11]

JMS logic, second in your division is better than undefeated in your conference

13-0 TCU would be ranked one seed lower than 11-1 Tennessee..

The only way that would not be the case is if UGA loses in Atlanta. To avoid an all SEC semifinal, UGA would drop from #1 to #2 or #3 and Tennessee would be #4.

Yall are smoking that crack pack if you think a 13-0 TCU would get the #3 seed over 11-1 Tennessee.