CFP Scenarios (merged)

We've never had that scenario play out. There has never been a situation where the choice for a final spot is between a 13-0 P5 Champ and the team who debuted #1 in first rankings with 1 loss... Since history tells a team who debuted #1 in the rankings always goes to the playoff with 0 or 1 losses, you have to honor that.

Tennessee will be in the playoff if they finish 11-1. You can argue that, but you are living in fantasy world.

This is false. If the Big 12 would have scheduled a conference title game, they would have gotten in. They refused to do a conference title game and the CPF punished them for that. Big 12 thought they could name co champs and sneak a team in..... CFP told them to kick rocks.
Exactly it’s never happened yet you argued repeatedly before yesterday that TCU was not a lock at 13-0 which history says an undefeated P5 champ is a lock. And you keep arguing where the committee valued them last week as an indicator, that’s irrelevant. They were ranked behind 5 other undefeated P5 teams, the only argument that could’ve been made was them or Bama, so where else could they have been (outside of 6th)? It’s also irrelevant cause 4 of the teams ahead of them were going to take it out of the committee’s hands to an extent by virtue of playing each other and the possibility for another come ATL (had it been Bama vs UGA). The one thing you’re right on is we’re not competing with an undefeated TCU, cause they’re a lock. We’re competing with a potential 1 loss USC PAC-12 champ or a 2 loss SEC champ LSU/1 loss SEC runner-up UGA. If USC, TCU and UM/OSU win out and UGA loses to LSU we’re on the outside looking in. There’s absolutely NO way, the committee values losing on the road by 14 to the conference runner up more than a 1 pt loss on the road for a conference champ USC. It’s not as simple as 11-1 regardless of your history rhetoric. Our schedule gets exponentially more terrible while USC, Oregon and LSU all have opportunities to put more recent deposits in the bank with quality wins.

In that scenario it’s:
OSU/UM
USC
TCU
LSU/UGA/UT and I don’t see us getting the nod.

FTR my list isn’t in order of seed as I’m sure you’ll argue. It’s a list of teams, nothing more, nothing less.
 
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You fail to comprehend that Tennessee is a playoff lock at #3 seed with an 11-1 finish.... Right now, TCU even at 13-0, would be the 4th seed. The CFP made a statement about TCU by putting 1 loss Bama in front of them. They aren't going to leap frog TCU over us.... Regardless, your infatuation with the idea that TCU and Tennessee are battling for the same playoff spot is baffling. Tennessee's ceiling for seeding is #3. TCU's is #4.

If TCU goes 13-0, good for them, but they would be the 4 seed and we would be the 3 seed if finishing 11-1. TCU is literally last year's Cincy with slightly better opponents. Congrats on going undefeated, but an undefeated record from a conference closer to the AAC than the SEC/Big Ten doesn't secure you a 3 seed.
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You fail to comprehend that Tennessee is a playoff lock at #3 seed with an 11-1 finish.... Right now, TCU even at 13-0, would be the 4th seed. The CFP made a statement about TCU by putting 1 loss Bama in front of them. They aren't going to leap frog TCU over us.... Regardless, your infatuation with the idea that TCU and Tennessee are battling for the same playoff spot is baffling. Tennessee's ceiling for seeding is #3. TCU's is #4.

If TCU goes 13-0, good for them, but they would be the 4 seed and we would be the 3 seed if finishing 11-1. TCU is literally last year's Cincy with slightly better opponents. Congrats on going undefeated, but an undefeated record from a conference closer to the AAC than the SEC/Big Ten doesn't secure you a 3 seed.
I’m not arguing TCU that’s what you can’t comprehend. The only thing that matters is the 4 spots, the seeding is irrelevant. A 1pt loss PAC-12 champ USC team will and should be looked at more favorably than a team who doesn’t even win their division let alone their conference. Our record of 11-1 ensures nothing except for your hang-up on history that involves completely different scenarios than the possibilities ahead of us.
 
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We've never had that scenario play out. There has never been a situation where the choice for a final spot is between a 13-0 P5 Champ and the team who debuted #1 in first rankings with 1 loss... Since history tells a team who debuted #1 in the rankings always goes to the playoff with 0 or 1 losses, you have to honor that.

Tennessee will be in the playoff if they finish 11-1. You can argue that, but you are living in fantasy world.

This is false. If the Big 12 would have scheduled a conference title game, they would have gotten in. They refused to do a conference title game and the CPF punished them for that. Big 12 thought they could name co champs and sneak a team in..... CFP told them to kick rocks.
What is false? That is literally the only scenario in which an undefeated P5 champ could’ve been left out and came remotely close to being left out. And it’s also not false that Baylor/TCU were “co-champs” and in better standings within their conference than UT will be this year, given that we won’t play for the title.
 
Exactly it’s never happened yet you argued repeatedly before yesterday that TCU was not a lock at 13-0 which history says an undefeated P5 champ is a lock. And you keep arguing where the committee valued them last week as an indicator, that’s irrelevant. They were ranked behind 5 other undefeated P5 teams, the only argument that could’ve been made was them or Bama, so where else could they have been (outside of 6th)? It’s also irrelevant cause 4 of the teams ahead of them were going to take it out of the committee’s hands to an extent by virtue of playing each other and the possibility for another come ATL (had it been Bama vs UGA). The one thing you’re right on is we’re not competing with an undefeated TCU, cause they’re a lock. We’re competing with a potential 1 loss USC PAC-12 champ or a 2 loss SEC champ LSU/1 loss SEC runner-up UGA. If USC, TCU and UM/OSU win out and UGA loses to LSU we’re on the outside looking in. There’s absolutely NO way, the committee values losing on the road by 14 to the conference runner up more than a 1 pt loss on the road for a conference champ USC. It’s not as simple as 11-1 regardless of your history rhetoric. Our schedule gets exponentially more terrible while USC, Oregon and LSU all have opportunities to put more recent deposits in the bank with quality wins.

In that scenario it’s:
OSU/UM
USC
TCU
LSU/UGA/UT and I don’t see us getting the nod.

One more time as a disclaimer: AT 11-1, TENNESSEE IS IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS A #3.

Regarding last night before Bama and Clemson lost, if Tennessee finishes at 11-1 and UGA wins in Atlanta, seeding would have been the below. There has never been a 0 or 1 loss team miss the playoffs that debuted at #1 in initial rankings.

1- UGA
2- OSU/UM
3- Tennessee
4- 13-0 Clemson or 13-0 TCU, but not both.

The committee doesn't respect TCU at all. They made that crystal clear with 1 loss Bama over TCU. There is nothing about a 34-24 win over a 4-5 Texas Tech that will change their minds.....

TCU if they go undefeated will be Cincy of last year. Congrats on going undefeated but that doesn't mean they are entitled to a top 3 seed.

Now if they go undefeated thanks to Clemson and Bama, seeding looks like this:

1- UGA
2- OSU/UM
3- Tennessee
4- TCU
 
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I’m not arguing TCU that’s what you can’t comprehend. The only thing that matters is the 4 spots, the seeding is irrelevant. A 1pt loss PAC-12 champ USC team will and should be looked at more favorably than a team who doesn’t even win their division let alone their conference. Our record of 11-1 ensures nothing except for your hang-up on history that involves completely different scenarios than the possibilities ahead of us.

That is exactly what you are doing. You think for some reason Tennessee and TCU are fighting for the same playoff seed. They aren't. Now that Bama and Clemson lost, Tennessee is jockeying for the #3 and TCU's best scenario is the #4..... They are competing for the same seed!
 
What is false? That is literally the only scenario in which an undefeated P5 champ could’ve been left out and came remotely close to being left out. And it’s also not false that Baylor/TCU were “co-champs” and in better standings within their conference than UT will be this year, given that we won’t play for the title.

If the Big 12 scheduled a conference title game, TCU or Baylor, whoever wins, would have gotten in over OSU. The commish tried to be cute and the CFP punished him for it. That is exactly what happened.
 
That is exactly what you are doing. You think for some reason Tennessee and TCU are fighting for the same playoff seed. They aren't. Now that Bama and Clemson lost, Tennessee is jockeying for the #3 and TCU's best scenario is the #4..... They are competing for the same seed!
I’ve repeatedly mentioned USC yet you’re too dense to discuss that. The committee (and your love of history) values conference title games, it’s why the Big 12 created one. These are not a computer, ranking teams based on blind metrics, they’re fallible, stupid, irrational human beings many of which have no business being in the room. We saw OSU move ahead of TCU/Baylor in 2014 with a conference title win, while they set at home. You’re ignorant if you think USC going 12-1 and winning 3 weekends in a row over ranked UCLA, ranked ND and ranked Oregon while we sit at home doesn’t move the needle for them.

Do I think we’re better than USC? Yes. Do I think we smoke USC if we played? Yes. Therefore, I think we’re more deserving to be in because I think we’re better. Does a group of people many with other conference affiliations/biases think that way? We’ll find out.
 
If the Big 12 scheduled a conference title game, TCU or Baylor, whoever wins, would have gotten in over OSU. The commish tried to be cute and the CFP punished him for it. That is exactly what happened.
Again, that’s getting in over another champion, not over a team sitting at home. That year there were 5 P5 champs with 1 loss or less, one had to be left out. You’re arguing here that a 1 loss team who doesn’t even play for a title is in over other 1 loss teams who have regular season and/or championship games on their resume.
 
So LSU who beats GA , who becomes SEC champ doesn’t get in? 👀 No way that’s happening.
GA would have to lose to KY first , then lose to LSU to become 11-2 and then we get 4 spot.
If LSWho wins the SECCG they are not getting in with 2 loses.
Especially a bad loss at home.
 
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I’ve repeatedly mentioned USC yet you’re too dense to discuss that. The committee (and your love of history) values conference title games, it’s why the Big 12 created one. These are not a computer, ranking teams based on blind metrics, they’re fallible, stupid, irrational human beings many of which have no business being in the room. We saw OSU move ahead of TCU/Baylor in 2014 with a conference title win, while they set at home. You’re ignorant if you think USC going 12-1 and winning 3 weekends in a row over ranked UCLA, ranked ND and ranked Oregon while we sit at home doesn’t move the needle for them.

USC and Oregon and Clemson are irrelevant if TCU goes 13-0.

Now if TCU loses, that brings Oregon or USC and even Clemson into the fold for the 4 spot, but that is not the spot Tennessee is vying for.

Say TCU loses, that means Tennessee is back in the Top 4. Now take the OSU and Michigan game. Loser drops and Tennessee moves up to #3.

Nothing in the Pac 12 or ACC is going to happen that causes Tennessee to drop 2 spots, out of the playoff and 2 teams (Most likely Clemson and Oregon/USC) into the playoff.

Tennessee is a playoff team right now and will be as long as we go 11-1. If TCU loses, we are a very comfy playoff team where our ceiling doesn't raise, but our cushion gets thicker.

If TCU goes 13-0 and you have to compare 11-1 Tenn to 12-1 USC or 12-1 Oregon or 12-1 Clemson, we win everyone one of those.

There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff if they go 11-1.

If you want to not believe that, that is fine. I just don't get why yall are getting worked up doing all these math equations and scenarios to try to find a way we will make it in.

We go 11-1, we are in the playoff. I'd bet anything on it right now.
 
Again, that’s getting in over another champion, not over a team sitting at home. That year there were 5 P5 champs with 1 loss or less, one had to be left out. You’re arguing here that a 1 loss team who doesn’t even play for a title is in over other 1 loss teams who have regular season and/or championship games on their resume.

Not really. Whoever won the Big 12 in a title game between Baylor and TCU woudl be 12-1. They would have been stacked against 12-1 OSU non champ and 11-2 PSU champ.

However its hindsight to argue about what didn't happen and what would have happened if things happened differently.

TCU got left out because the commish didn't force a conference title game. The CFP said that very loudly.
 
Not really. Whoever won the Big 12 in a title game between Baylor and TCU woudl be 12-1. They would have been stacked against 12-1 OSU non champ and 11-2 PSU champ.

However its hindsight to argue about what didn't happen and what would have happened if things happened differently.

TCU got left out because the commish didn't force a conference title game. The CFP said that very loudly.
That wasn’t the year that PSU was a 2 loss champ. OSU was a 1 loss champ, Bama was a 1 loss champ, Oregon was a loss champ, FSU was undefeated champ and TCU/Baylor were 1 loss co-champs.
 
That wasn’t the year that PSU was a 2 loss champ. OSU was a 1 loss champ, Bama was a 1 loss champ, Oregon was a loss champ, FSU was undefeated champ and TCU/Baylor were 1 loss co-champs.

My apologies. I can admit I got that confused. For some reason I hate Penn State on my mind.

I do think and agree with you about FSU's weak schedule that first year. However, FSU is a brand name and as defending champs, they were going to get in regardless. I think the Big12 did themselves no favors by saying "co champs" and not forcing a title game. They gave the CFP an out not to pick them.

My apologies for getting confused on the year.
 
I think when you evaluate how much to weight a conference championship game, it is equal to about 1.5 Tier 1 wins (as long as the opponent is Top 20 or so).

UT has about 3 of those

TCU has maybe 1 of those right now with the opportunity for 1 left before the conference champ.

Oregon if they win out would have 2 in the regular season so they are probably the biggest threat but I think having a better relative result against UGA is huge.

I don't think UT has too much to be worried about on these 1 loss conference champs, the SEC gap is too far ahead.
 
you've played the "boomer," "ass-out hug," and "nothing burger" cards today
time to stop drinking (and posting) and go on to bed

Wait. Hold up. Hear me now and answer me this, do you not know the “ass out hug” reference?
 
All of today’s updated bowl projections - the people who get paid to do this for a living - except one (ESPN) have the Vols in the CFP as the #3 or #4 seed.
 
USC and Oregon and Clemson are irrelevant if TCU goes 13-0.

Now if TCU loses, that brings Oregon or USC and even Clemson into the fold for the 4 spot, but that is not the spot Tennessee is vying for.

Say TCU loses, that means Tennessee is back in the Top 4. Now take the OSU and Michigan game. Loser drops and Tennessee moves up to #3.

Nothing in the Pac 12 or ACC is going to happen that causes Tennessee to drop 2 spots, out of the playoff and 2 teams (Most likely Clemson and Oregon/USC) into the playoff.

Tennessee is a playoff team right now and will be as long as we go 11-1. If TCU loses, we are a very comfy playoff team where our ceiling doesn't raise, but our cushion gets thicker.

If TCU goes 13-0 and you have to compare 11-1 Tenn to 12-1 USC or 12-1 Oregon or 12-1 Clemson, we win everyone one of those.

There is no scenario where Tennessee gets left out of the playoff if they go 11-1.

If you want to not believe that, that is fine. I just don't get why yall are getting worked up doing all these math equations and scenarios to try to find a way we will make it in.

We go 11-1, we are in the playoff. I'd bet anything on it right now.
People are arguing with you because of your definitive stance and everyone else is stupid position, with the only logic to support your stance is “history” while failing to acknowledge that that “history” is not the same scenario at play here. Tell me which team who opened #1 and didn’t play for their conference championship (meaning they obviously had a loss) got in over a 1-loss P5 conference champ? That’s the history that would have to prove your scenario that we’re a lock. You want history? An undisputed 1-loss P5 champ has been left out of the playoffs exactly one time and that was OSU in favor of a one-loss OU team who lost by 3 to TX compared to OSU’s 29 pt loss to Purdue. So the door for the PAC-12 champ is not remotely shut.

College Football Playoff - Wikipedia
 
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People are arguing with you because of your definitive stance and everyone else is stupid position, with the only logic to support your stance is “history” while failing to acknowledge that that “history” is not the same scenario at play here. Tell me which team who opened #1 and didn’t play for their conference championship (meaning they obviously had a loss) got in over a 1-loss P5 conference champ? That’s the history that would have to prove your scenario that we’re a lock. You want history? An undisputed 1-loss P5 champ has been left out of the playoffs exactly one time and that was OSU in favor of a one-loss OU team who lost by 3 to TX compared to OSU’s 29 pt loss to Purdue. So the door for the PAC-12 champ is not remotely shut.

College Football Playoff - Wikipedia


So now you have to expand / change the goal post to fit your agenda. I have made a very clear data point... Whoever debuts at the #1 rank for CFP and has 0 or 1 loss at the end of the season goes on to make the playoff. For some reason, you can't accept that and have to add to the data point to kneecap Tennessee's candidacy.. Very weird thing to do for a Vol Fan. At the end of the day, we finish 11-1, we are in the playoff regardless of anyone else. TCU (Big 12), Oregon/USC (PAC 12) and now Clemson (ACC) are all jockeying for the fourth and final playoff spot. Tennessee is setup to win out and claim the 3 spot. The only way i would accept not getting the 3 spot is if UGA loses in Atlanta and drops to the 2 or 3 seed and we drop to 4 so the CFP will avoid a SEC vs SEC final.

As a supposed Vol Fan, you should be ecstatic for Tennessee. As a supposed TCU fan, you should be excited Bama and Clemson lost.

This failed understanding by many is amazing. Tennessee is competing for the 3 seed. TCU, and the other 1 loss champs would be competing for the 4 seed. This notion that Tennessee is getting in would only be the 4 seed is laughable. And yes history would point to the CFP wanting to avoid a SEC vs SEC semi....

Have a good evening.
 
You fail to comprehend that Tennessee is a playoff lock at #3 seed with an 11-1 finish.... Right now, TCU even at 13-0, would be the 4th seed. The CFP made a statement about TCU by putting 1 loss Bama in front of them. They aren't going to leap frog TCU over us.... Regardless, your infatuation with the idea that TCU and Tennessee are battling for the same playoff spot is baffling. Tennessee's ceiling for seeding is #3. TCU's is #4.

If TCU goes 13-0, good for them, but they would be the 4 seed and we would be the 3 seed if finishing 11-1. TCU is literally last year's Cincy with slightly better opponents. Congrats on going undefeated, but an undefeated record from a conference closer to the AAC than the SEC/Big Ten doesn't secure you a 3 seed.

Folks, save yourself the time reading through all the posts. The foregoing post is spot on. Tennessee is in the playoff if they win out, regardless what happens in the SECC game and most likely as the #3 seed. Clemson and Bama losing last night was a gift to tcu and Tennessee.

First, we have to take care of business. If we do, we have a legitimate shot at playing for and winning the national championship! Our fan base travels very well, regardless of who we play in the first round they will not have home field advantage like GA did yesterday and we will not have 8 false start penalties. I have confidence CJH will get the offense going again and be ready going forward. You could argue Tennessee will have home field advantage with how starved our fan base is. Kirby does not want to see Tennessee again, not on a neutral field or even less, a field advantage for Tennessee.

I think we win out, beat OSU in the first round 42-30, then beat GA for the national championship 35-24.

P.S. Hooker wins the Heisman.

Go VOLS!!!!!!
 

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