CFP Scenarios (merged)

#1,079
#1,079
JMSqb11 said:
TCU being undefeated gets them the 4 spot.... Tennessee at 11-1 would be 3 spot. CFP won't set up a 1 vs 4 SEC Semi Final game. While the CFP doesn't follow precedent religiously, no shot they would put two SEC teams in a semi. And since Tennessee is a lock for a playoff spot at 11-1, we are not competing with TCU, PAC12, or ACC Champ for the 4th and final playoff spot.

To KISS it (Keep it simple, stupid), there is no scenario where it would be UGA, Ohio State/Michigan, TCU, Tennessee... The only way we would wind up the 4th seed is if UGA dropped the SEC title game to fall to 2 or 3 and we get put at 4 to avoid an all SEC semi final.
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The country may be tired of all SEC finals which has happened 3x in 10 years (once before the playoffs). There is the possibility of a 1/4 matchup just to eliminate one and not guarantee an SEC national champion. The committee changes year to year so “precedent” is irrelevant, unless they’re taking marching orders from an outside source. If that’s the case, the powers to be may call the shots to maximize TV eyes. Few people outside the south will care to tune in.
 
#1,081
#1,081
AthensVol2007 said:
The country may be tired of all SEC finals which has happened 3x in 10 years (once before the playoffs). There is the possibility of a 1/4 matchup just to eliminate one and not guarantee an SEC national champion. The committee changes year to year so “precedent” is irrelevant, unless they’re taking marching orders from an outside source. If that’s the case, the powers to be may call the shots to maximize TV eyes. Few people outside the south will care to tune in.
Click to expand...

I agree the CFP doesn't follow precedent religiously. This is the genius of having term limits for voting members. But where is the fatigue from two SEC teams from the CFP members specifically. Not the media or coaches.... But from CFP committee. There isn't.
 
#1,082
#1,082
WingT said:
Name me the undefeated P5 champ that was left out first
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Who said anything about an undefeated P5 champ being left out? And why do you have have to answer my question with a question? Literally no one has said 13-0 TCU would be left out of the playoff after last night's games aka Clemson and Bama losing....
 
#1,083
#1,083
SockeyeVol said:
Looks like Bama lost, so my guess is it will be:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Mich
4. TCU
5. Vols
6. Oregon
etc.

Basically, I think we will be the best of the one-loss teams. If we win out, we just have to hope (1) TCU loses and (2) Georgia wins the SECCG
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TCU doesn't have to lose. We will move to #4 after the UM vs OSU game.
 
#1,085
#1,085
JMSqb11 said:
Who said anything about an undefeated P5 champ being left out? And why do you have have to answer my question with a question? Literally no one has said 13-0 TCU would be left out of the playoff after last night's games aka Clemson and Bama losing....
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You said it, your changing your tune today...thanks, please re read your 800 posts from yesterday- they were always in if they won, it was true before last night and you gave us your opinion

Again, a P5 undefeated champ gets a spot prior to one loss no champ.... i have no clue how your question changes that, we had an acc one sided bracket before
 
#1,086
#1,086
AthensVol2007 said:
The country may be tired of all SEC finals which has happened 3x in 10 years (once before the playoffs). There is the possibility of a 1/4 matchup just to eliminate one and not guarantee an SEC national champion. The committee changes year to year so “precedent” is irrelevant, unless they’re taking marching orders from an outside source. If that’s the case, the powers to be may call the shots to maximize TV eyes. Few people outside the south will care to tune in.
Click to expand...
3 years.
The committee serves for 3 years
 
#1,087
#1,087
WingT said:
You said it, your changing your tune today...thanks, please re read your 800 posts from yesterday- they were always in if they won, it was true before last night and you gave us your opion

Again, a P5 undefeated chance gets a spot prior to one loss no champ.... i have no clue how your question changes that, we had an acc one sided bracket before
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Yesterday I was very firm in my belief Clemson would go 13-0, meaning TCU would have no shot at the playoff.... Big whoop Clemson lost. Games get played and the scenarios change with it.

So now you will have at best 3 undefeated P5 champs that will get in. Since Tennessee is a lock for the other spot, the seeding is the only thing that is up for debate. Now that Clemson has lost, TCU at 13-0 will be in the playoff and aren't jockeying for the same seed that Tennessee is. Simply put, Tennessee was a lock for playoff before Clemson lost and is still a lock now that Clemson lost. Had Clemson been undefeated, TCU and Tennessee would be competing for the same playoff spot. Clemson's loss changes that.

The only thing I was wrong on from last night is my belief that Clemson would finish 13-0... Since that is a fact they can't now and finish 12-1 at best, TCU jumps them as the current leader of the pack of Non SEC/Big10 conference champs... There is no world where Tennessee misses the playoff at 11-1. Clemson and Bama games just validated that.

If TCU goes 13-0 the seeding will be 2 versions:

1- UGA 2-OSU/Michigan 3-Tennessee 4-TCU

OR

1- OSU/Michigan 2-UGA/TCU 3-UGA/TCU 4- Tennessee
 
#1,088
#1,088
“The first College Football Playoff selection committee was announced on October 16, 2013. The group consists of 13 members who generally serve three-year terms, although some initial selections served two- and four-year terms "to achieve a rotation" of members.”
 
#1,089
#1,089
JMSqb11 said:
Yesterday I was very firm in my belief Clemson would go 13-0, meaning TCU would have no shot at the playoff.... Big whoop Clemson lost. Games get played and the scenarios change with it.

So now you will have at best 3 undefeated P5 champs that will get in. Since Tennessee is a lock for the other spot, the seeding is the only thing that is up for debate. Now that Clemson has lost, TCU at 13-0 will be in the playoff and aren't jockeying for the same seed that Tennessee is. Simply put, Tennessee was a lock for playoff before Clemson lost and is still a lock now that Clemson lost. Had Clemson been undefeated, TCU and Tennessee would be competing for the same playoff spot. Clemson's loss changes that.

The only thing I was wrong on from last night is my belief that Clemson would finish 13-0... Since that is a fact they can't now and finish 12-1 at best, TCU jumps them as the current leader of the pack of Non SEC/Big10 conference champs... There is no world where Tennessee misses the playoff at 11-1. Clemson and Bama games just validated that.

If TCU goes 13-0 the seeding will be 2 versions:

1- UGA 2-OSU/Michigan 3-Tennessee 4-TCU

OR

1- OSU/Michigan 2-UGA/TCU 3-UGA/TCU 4- Tennessee
Click to expand...
Every time you say "UT is a lock" your credibility drops
 
#1,090
#1,090
JMSqb11 said:
Yesterday I was very firm in my belief Clemson would go 13-0, meaning TCU would have no shot at the playoff.... Big whoop Clemson lost. Games get played and the scenarios change with it.

So now you will have at best 3 undefeated P5 champs that will get in. Since Tennessee is a lock for the other spot, the seeding is the only thing that is up for debate. Now that Clemson has lost, TCU at 13-0 will be in the playoff and aren't jockeying for the same seed that Tennessee is. Simply put, Tennessee was a lock for playoff before Clemson lost and is still a lock now that Clemson lost. Had Clemson been undefeated, TCU and Tennessee would be competing for the same playoff spot. Clemson's loss changes that.

The only thing I was wrong on from last night is my belief that Clemson would finish 13-0... Since that is a fact they can't now and finish 12-1 at best, TCU jumps them as the current leader of the pack of Non SEC/Big10 conference champs... There is no world where Tennessee misses the playoff at 11-1. Clemson and Bama games just validated that.

If TCU goes 13-0 the seeding will be 2 versions:

1- UGA 2-OSU/Michigan 3-Tennessee 4-TCU

OR

1- OSU/Michigan 2-UGA/TCU 3-UGA/TCU 4- Tennessee
Click to expand...


OK, you never said an undefeated p5 champ was left out, then literally describe how they may get left out for tennesee


My suspicion confirmed, and circular logic discovered, my exit from this thread is now
 
#1,091
#1,091
WingT said:
OK, you never said an undefeated p5 champ was left out, then literally describe how they may get left out for tennesee


My suspicion confirmed, and circular logic discovered, my exit from this thread is now
Click to expand...

It is impossible for an undefeated P5 champ to get left out now. There are only 3* teams that can do that now with Clemson losing. Clemson's loss is TCU's gain, which means a 1 loss team will be in the playoff.


Congrats, that team will be Tennessee.

This is not hard to understand. You can keep living in the past or adjust as the games are played.

All you people are getting worked about Tennessee's playoff chances. I am not sure exactly why when we are are a lock to go the playoff as long as we finish 11-1. See you in the playoff boomer.
 
#1,092
#1,092
TNBV said:
Every time you say "UT is a lock" your credibility drops
Click to expand...

I mean if you want to get worked up worrying that 11-1 might not get Tennessee in the playoff, you can do that. Me on the other hand, I am feeling great that Tennessee is going to make our playoff debut in 2022-23 season.
 
#1,093
#1,093
After looking at it all, I think our main threat comes from a 1-loss Pac-12 champion:

Here's the list of 0- or 1-loss teams not named GA or OH St., along with the FPI of their remaining opponents.
  1. Ole Miss (8-1). FPI = 14.3. Remaining opponent FPI of 44.7 (Bama, Arkansas, Miss St.). Ouch.
  2. TCU - (9-0). FPI = 13.5. Remaining opponent FPI of 41.6 (Texas, Baylor, Iowa St.). Ouch.
  3. Michigan (9-0). FPI = 23.5. Remaining Opp FPI of 36.1 (NEB, IL, OSU).
  4. Oregon (8-1). FPI = 15.7. Remaining Opp FPI of 30.7 (WA, Utah, Ore St.). Tough schedule.
  5. USC (8-1). FPI = 13.9. Remaining Opp FPI of 23.8 (UCLA, Notre Dame, misc). Tough schedule.
  6. Clemson (8-1). FPI = 17.0. Remaining Opp FPI of 13.7 (Lou, Miami, SC).
  7. Tennessee (8-1). FPI = 21.3. Remaining Opp FPI of -1.4 (Mizzou, SC, Vandy). Easiest remaining schedule of everyone.
Summary thoughts:
  • Ole Miss and TCU will each lose once more and be out.
  • Clemson can win out and still be left out of Top 4.
  • A 1-loss Michigan (or OSU) team will still have a really high FPI/strength of schedule.
  • Tennessee can win out, but their strength of schedule is going to really drop now.
  • USC and OR each losing once more REALLY helps us.
  • There are still some potential "Black Swan" events that could really help us - Michigan loses to IL (and then OSU), for example.
I think our main threat comes from 2 of USC, Oregon, or Michigan ending with one loss. Each of these could argue for a stronger recent schedule and get put at #4 with just one loss.

My final prediction:
1. Georgia (13-0 or 12-1)
2. Ohio State or Michigan (13-0)
3. Michigan or Ohio State (11-1, and with a better FPI than UT)
4. Tennessee (11-1). Only one loss, and with a slightly better FPI than a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
5. Pac 12 champion with a 12-1 record (OR, UCLA, or USC). Of course, the Committee might put this team at #4 to spread the interest.
 
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#1,096
#1,096
JMSqb11 said:
While UGA vs Tennessee in Atlanta would be ratings extravaganza, I do not see the CFP putting two SEC teams in a semi. I think if UGA goes 13-0, Tennessee is the 3 seed. UGA loses in Atlanta, Tennessee is the 4 seed.
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That cbs guy has a pretty good record at predicting this stuff.
I think it’s likely that if 2 sec teams get in they will play in the semifinals. To avoid the possibility of an all sec national championship game
 
#1,097
#1,097
Orangeslice13 said:
That cbs guy has a pretty good record at predicting this stuff.
I think it’s likely that if 2 sec teams get in they will play in the semifinals. To avoid the possibility of an all sec national championship game
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Who knows. This is a newer group of committee folks. I just don't believe one second they'd rank TCU over Tennessee unless they had to in order to avoid an all SEC semi.
 
#1,098
#1,098
JMSqb11 said:
Who knows. This is a newer group of committee folks. I just don't believe one second they'd rank TCU over Tennessee unless they had to in order to avoid an all SEC semi.
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No it’s not.
Only 3 guys are new to the committee this year
And they would absolutely rank teams to get the final they think is good for the sport
 
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