Coach Butch Jones,how long a leash does he have ?

[sjt18]

What makes you say that? As of now, we are in 6th, and actually only one point off of 5th spot. And we're still in on a lot of talent, guys like tuttle, van Jefferson, Richmond, Phillips, sapp, and on and on. Top 10 class easy.

With 3 or 4 spots to fill, UT's star avg is 3.27. I would certainly expect that to improve but you need to remember that UT's class last year with 32 signees @3.65 stars ended up 5th. UK with 28 signees and 3.28 stars was 17th. The lowest avg stars to make the top 10 for 2014 was UF at 3.58.

If Dormady gets 4* then UT fills the last 4 spots with 4* players... then that's still just an avg of 3.46 stars which would not have made UT's class top 10 in '14 in all likelihood. Yes I realize their computation is more complex than that... but it is a pretty good predictor.

And your other post trying to use rivals average star total and saying our recruiting hasn't really improved is a joke.

I didn't say that it hasn't really improved. I don't know if Jones' ability to find underrated 3* is superior to Dooley's yet or not. I have simply said that according to Rivals recruiting overall has not improved significantly. Joke or not, that's what the numbers say.

First off, having longsnappers and kickers will drag that avg star ranking down because they don't rank those guys highly.

Dooley recruited kickers. Not sure why anyone puts a longsnapper on scholarship but that's Jones' prerogative.

Add in the joke of them having dormady rated a two star while other services consider him a top 200 player factors in.

I hope he's as good as 247 says. Rivals will probably bump him to 3* but having watched this for awhile now... they are resistant to admitting they were wrong. Essentially they'd have to say that someone they previously considered a 4* wasn't as good while Dormady was better. They're stubborn so he probably ends up a 3*. Scout rates him a 3*. ESPN rates him 4* but they are probably the least reliable of the 4.

All it takes is looking at the talent butch Is bringing in with common sense. We have rivals #1 player in the country in McKenzie, 5* Preston Williams, kamara, butcher, Jack Jones, so many guys. And then last years monster class with according to rivals 17 4* and 2 5* players.
To say our recruiting hasn't improved is completely laughable.

To say that Dooley's recruiting and that of Kiffin and Fulmer's last few years as well didn't look better on NSD than it did at any time after is what is completely laughable.

According to the recruiting svcs, UT's recruiting by the numbers has not improved significantly. All of them reflect about the same thing though they differ on particular players. None of them show UT spiking in recruit quality. That doesn't mean they won't perform better... it just means what it means. The numbers have not shifted that much.

If you want to throw around words like "laughable" and "common sense" and "joke" then you might want to start reading and dealing with the actual facts at some point. I'm not saying they aren't better players. I'm saying that the recruiting sites and especially Rivals do not yet say that UT is getting talent out of line with what it has gotten for the better part of the last 10 years. Over that time there have been ups and downs but UT avg's right around 3.4 stars. That's about where Jones is for his 3 classes.

 

[sjt18]

Too many in classes 2009-12 did not stay in school and contribute. It is not just the stars. It is also building depth and filling needs.

I haven't done the research myself but Daj (the resident statistician) has said that UT's attrition over that period wasn't out of the norm.

You could argue that development has been lacking and specifically development toward what Jones wants out of a player.

 

[sjt18]

Even if things don't proceed record wise like we all would like in the upcoming years, I don't think it would be wise to fire Butch before his 4th season. He at least needs 4 years so he can have a full cycle with his first class. If after 4 years we still haven't been to a bowl, then maybe it would be time to look at our options.

Same argument was made for Dooley... It was incorrect then too. Jones has to do something ON THE FIELD this fall to begin to demonstrate he's the coach UT needs. The other stuff is nice but in the end it comes down to performing on gameday.

 

[sjt18]

This year means a lot (in recruiting) but this season not so much. We want it to but most fans know we are still climbing out of a hole. Butch needs to make sure team 118 and VN don't get embarrassed and I really don't see that happening. Aside from an occassional drunk fan maybe embarrassing themselves.

Truth of the matter is though UT would be hard pressed to afford another coaching change as early as 2015. Just the facts. Butch will get the entirety of 2015 with every exception save a scandal. He'd have to really ham fist it on Sunseri levels not to get all of 2016.
Don't forget you get a hot seat year and then fired assistants year. Pretty much par for most coaches.

This year IS big for recruiting. As I have pointed out, it does not appear UT will finish in the top 10 barring some guys getting bumps, losing some 3* players and replacing them with 4*, or filling one or two of the last 4 spots with 5* players.

On the field performance directly impacts recruiting. How long does a coach get to promise that better things are just around the corner before they have to actually show some wins on the field? One year... two at the most.

If Jones wins less than 6 this fall he can and SHOULD be on a warm seat. UT cannot afford a HC that can't recruit at a high level... and a HC can't continue to recruit at a high level if they aren't winning. Fulmer's last few years helps demonstrate that.

 

[sjt18]

The thing is, you're judging the current class in July. NSD is a looong way away, my friend.

Also, it's important to note that we have a LS and Punter committed, which will bring down the rating.

I can tell you right now, that Dormady, Miller, and Smith will all be ranked higher by NSD. Piccou, Ford, and Hall are also guys that have good chances to be ranked higher.

Not taking into account we have a great chance to land Shy Tuttle, Van Jefferson, Drew Richmond, and Quarte Sapp.

This class is sitting just fine; much better than anything Dooley ever did.

I hope you are right. But you and I have watched this for awhile. The guys who do the ratings don't give it up easy. Still this class is a long way from being top 10... which was one of the points I answered. The poster contended that Jones should be kept as long as he keeps bringing in top 10 classes. I asked what if he doesn't and pointed out that the '15 class currently doesn't look like it will make it.

To make the top 10, UT with about 4 slots to fill would have to improve star avg from 3.27 to around 3.55. That's a longshot.

 

[sjt18]

I'll gladly say it again. I think Butch is guaranteed 4 years, not 3, unless the wheels completely fall off (3-9, 4-8 seasons in 2014 & 2015). There's no sign that that's gonna happen. If he goes 5-7 or 6-6 each of the next 2 seasons, I believe he's still our coach in 2016.

If he is then it will be a sign that the powers that be are resigned and satisfied to be a 2nd or 3rd tier program. Hopefully that's not the case.

IMO, this is a 6-8 win team this fall. A six win season in '15 following two 5 win seasons SHOULD be just as unacceptable as it was when the HC's name was Dooley.

 

[knoxvols11]

You guys need to look at Zook and how he did after he left Fla. This is so rmeiniscient of him ay Illionis.

 

[rockytop114]

Butch has free reign ... He will get us back and will be a top 5 coach.

 

[Doyle Hargraves]

Sjt, I usually tend to agree with you but your faith in Rivals puts me on the other side this time. Any service that lists Kahlil McKenzie as a mere 4* is a less than accurate ranking service, imo.

 

[ntxVOL]

CBJ still has a long leash, the season hasn't started yet. Gotta wait and see, I have high hopes for him right now.

 

[dillyo51]

I have every confidence Butch will get it done! You do realize "he gets it!" k:

 

[thebjd]

With 3 or 4 spots to fill, UT's star avg is 3.27. I would certainly expect that to improve but you need to remember that UT's class last year with 32 signees @3.65 stars ended up 5th. UK with 28 signees and 3.28 stars was 17th. The lowest avg stars to make the top 10 for 2014 was UF at 3.58.

If Dormady gets 4* then UT fills the last 4 spots with 4* players... then that's still just an avg of 3.46 stars which would not have made UT's class top 10 in '14 in all likelihood. Yes I realize their computation is more complex than that... but it is a pretty good predictor.

I didn't say that it hasn't really improved. I don't know if Jones' ability to find underrated 3* is superior to Dooley's yet or not. I have simply said that according to Rivals recruiting overall has not improved significantly. Joke or not, that's what the numbers say.

Dooley recruited kickers. Not sure why anyone puts a longsnapper on scholarship but that's Jones' prerogative.

I hope he's as good as 247 says. Rivals will probably bump him to 3* but having watched this for awhile now... they are resistant to admitting they were wrong. Essentially they'd have to say that someone they previously considered a 4* wasn't as good while Dormady was better. They're stubborn so he probably ends up a 3*. Scout rates him a 3*. ESPN rates him 4* but they are probably the least reliable of the 4.


To say that Dooley's recruiting and that of Kiffin and Fulmer's last few years as well didn't look better on NSD than it did at any time after is what is completely laughable.

According to the recruiting svcs, UT's recruiting by the numbers has not improved significantly. All of them reflect about the same thing though they differ on particular players. None of them show UT spiking in recruit quality. That doesn't mean they won't perform better... it just means what it means. The numbers have not shifted that much.

If you want to throw around words like "laughable" and "common sense" and "joke" then you might want to start reading and dealing with the actual facts at some point. I'm not saying they aren't better players. I'm saying that the recruiting sites and especially Rivals do not yet say that UT is getting talent out of line with what it has gotten for the better part of the last 10 years. Over that time there have been ups and downs but UT avg's right around 3.4 stars. That's about where Jones is for his 3 classes.

Counting Dooley's last class as Jones' and Kiffin's class as Dooley's to help your argument is classic. There is a huge difference in actual program changing players coming in. I understand winning on the field is where it matters but twisting facts to fit a narrative is a joke. Dooley had the best team he could or ever would put on the field in 2012.

 

[HeathAllVol4]

There will be no worries about Butch because HE GETS IT. Tennessee will be back on top. Give it some time, relax a little, Butch is bringing us back.

 

[Biopsyman]

Its always recommended that you change your head coach every 2 to 3 years and assistants yearly:horse:

 

[gnm53108]

Its always recommended that you change your head coach every 2 to 3 years and assistants yearly:horse:

We use to have a hc that came pretty close to thinking that.

 

[NickZ4UT]

We can't afford to let our desire to win now fog up the bigger picture which is; this rebuilding process is going to take a while. Don't expect great things until this class and the next one have a chance to develop and that puts us into 2016 before we can even think about competing for SEC titles. And I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this coming season is probably going to be another 5-7(maybe 6-6 if the line play is better than we expect) type year unfortunately, on the bright side it should be our last one for quite a while. Make no mistake, we are on the way up but it's not going to be overnight, to do it right is a slow burn.

 

[KBVol]

If he is then it will be a sign that the powers that be are resigned and satisfied to be a 2nd or 3rd tier program. Hopefully that's not the case.

IMO, this is a 6-8 win team this fall. A six win season in '15 following two 5 win seasons SHOULD be just as unacceptable as it was when the HC's name was Dooley.

I don't agree with that. I think after having 3 head coaches and a myriad of other new position coaches and coordinators over 5 years, each who tore down the program in his own special way, that the "powers" believe Jones has stabilized the program and have it turned in the right direction.

I think they value that stability and as long as he continues the excellent off the field work along with the excellent recruiting, and that, barring a disaster on the field the next 2 years, that he's a virtual lock to be here through 2016. Personally, I think he'll have enough success on the field the next 2 years (6-7 wins in 2014, 8-9 wins in 2015) that it'll be a moot point. Obviously, this is all just my humble opinion.

 

[DD4ME]

This year IS big for recruiting. As I have pointed out, it does not appear UT will finish in the top 10 barring some guys getting bumps, losing some 3* players and replacing them with 4*, or filling one or two of the last 4 spots with 5* players.

On the field performance directly impacts recruiting. How long does a coach get to promise that better things are just around the corner before they have to actually show some wins on the field? One year... two at the most.

If Jones wins less than 6 this fall he can and SHOULD be on a warm seat. UT cannot afford a HC that can't recruit at a high level... and a HC can't continue to recruit at a high level if they aren't winning. Fulmer's last few years helps demonstrate that.

People wanting to know/debate if Butch completely ham fists things if he'd be fired are barking up the wrong tree. Of course he would but it would still take 2 years unless it was totally egregious or scandalous.


The real debate imo will be later regarding if Butch is capable of a NC. He's been successful everywhere else I see no reason to presume his stop at UT will be different. How successful though?

 

[Ericvol2096]

Starting in '10, UT's signing classes have avg'd this many stars:

3.44
3.41
3.38
3.19
3.65
and 3.27 currently.

We're all excited by some of the players being brought in but at least according to Rivals... NSD results really haven't improved that much unless you look at '14 only.

There are 3 or 4 players who won't be in our class...I expect our average star rating will be around where it finished last year when it is all said and done. You were saying the same thing about our class last year at this time.

Wait till we have Tuttle, Jefferson, Phillips, Richmond, Sapp and others added and lose some 3*.

Also don't ignore the two 2* special team players, I think that drags the average down quite a bit.

 

[DD4ME]

You guys need to look at Zook and how he did after he left Fla. This is so rmeiniscient of him ay Illionis.

Butch ' s career really isn't much like Zook's at all. Maybe you are projecting he's a good recruiter poor coach? If anybody was like Zook for us it was Kiffen but he wasn't here long enough.

 

[Ericvol2096]

This year IS big for recruiting. As I have pointed out, it does not appear UT will finish in the top 10 barring some guys getting bumps, losing some 3* players and replacing them with 4*, or filling one or two of the last 4 spots with 5* players.

On the field performance directly impacts recruiting. How long does a coach get to promise that better things are just around the corner before they have to actually show some wins on the field? One year... two at the most.

If Jones wins less than 6 this fall he can and SHOULD be on a warm seat. UT cannot afford a HC that can't recruit at a high level... and a HC can't continue to recruit at a high level if they aren't winning. Fulmer's last few years helps demonstrate that.

The guys who do this for a living, Hubbs, Fort, Callahan, Rucker, ect expect this class to finish on per player basis as strong or stronger than the 14 class.

You really should stop worrying about our July "avg star ranking".

I'd love for you to pull Dooley's July average star rating from his years. I would guess it would have been a 3 and only had about 8 players included.

 

[Ericvol2096]

If he is then it will be a sign that the powers that be are resigned and satisfied to be a 2nd or 3rd tier program. Hopefully that's not the case.

IMO, this is a 6-8 win team this fall. A six win season in '15 following two 5 win seasons SHOULD be just as unacceptable as it was when the HC's name was Dooley.

5, 5, and 6 wins for Dooley wouldn't have been acceptable because everyone knew that 2013 would be a step back.

If Butch keeps building the foundation like he is 5, 5, 6 would give him one more year in 2016 for him to break out. If he won less than 8 in 2016 then that year I could see a change.

I think its a moot point though because I think we win 6 or 7 this year and 8 or 9 in 2015.

 

[Volview]

UT would have to really tank the next 2 years on and off the field before CBJ's seat will become warm, and he would still have a 3rd year to cool down the seat.

The W-L record just will not count this year. CBJ build up a lot of good will with the money people when he had that amazing class last year and the signature win over SC...and UT could not afford to remove CBJ before 3 years in any case. Face it. He is bullet proof to anything but scandal right now.

 

[knoxvols11]

We can't afford to let our desire to win now fog up the bigger picture which is; this rebuilding process is going to take a while. Don't expect great things until this class and the next one have a chance to develop and that puts us into 2016 before we can even think about competing for SEC titles. And I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this coming season is probably going to be another 5-7(maybe 6-6 if the line play is better than we expect) type year unfortunately, on the bright side it should be our last one for quite a while. Make no mistake, we are on the way up but it's not going to be overnight, to do it right is a slow burn.

So, we would have been better off with Petrino?

 

[sjt18]

I don't agree with that. I think after having 3 head coaches and a myriad of other new position coaches and coordinators over 5 years, each who tore down the program in his own special way, that the "powers" believe Jones has stabilized the program and have it turned in the right direction.

I think they value that stability and as long as he continues the excellent off the field work along with the excellent recruiting, and that, barring a disaster on the field the next 2 years, that he's a virtual lock to be here through 2016. Personally, I think he'll have enough success on the field the next 2 years (6-7 wins in 2014, 8-9 wins in 2015) that it'll be a moot point. Obviously, this is all just my humble opinion.

I agree that I think he will have enough success to make this "worst case" talk moot. I don't agree that changing again is a worse option than "stable" mediocrity or worse.