Crime and the United States

[whodeycin85]

I would like data that shows harsher punishment has led to a reduction in crime.

It doesn't exist due to it not being applied in a western country for an extended period of time..much like MRNA vaccine studies

 

[hog88]

It doesn't exist due to it not being applied in a western country for an extended period of time..much like MRNA vaccine studies

Penalties for drug trafficking have been increased substantially over the years, if stiffer penalties deter crime shouldn't we have seen less drugs on the street?

 

[LouderVol]

What data would you like? Because like you said in those countries info is hard to come by..by you can Google countries with the lowest crime rates and those with the harshest punishment and cross reference..but again you won't find a study from Western societies proving that because the impact is several generations not immediate.

Top 10 Incarceration Rates per capita.






3 of the Top 10 highest incarceration nations have death penalties and active executions. The rest of the top incarceration nations aren't exactly known for being cute and cuddly with their prisoners.

That is out of a total 20 nations that executed someone in 2022.

I don't think the data says harsher punishments leads to fewer criminals.

 

[85SugarVol]

willing to bet real money any state that has more than a few executions in its history has quite a few dead innocents.

I would also be curious to know the general groups thought on is there a difference of someone being killed from the death penalty vs dying in prison from other causes if both are different? is an innocent person who serves a true life sentence less of a tragedy than someone the state kills on a incorrect death penalty?

There are people in this thread that are perfectly fine with a 5% error rate on Capital cases.

An innocent person serving Life is tragic. It’s less tragic on one of Luther’s continuums than forced death.

 

[85SugarVol]

So where is the cost then?

The cost of a capital case is greater, and we pay for the Prosecution and the Defense.

It has nothing to do with method of execution. That’s nonsense.

They would get the same number of appeals if they were facing death by stoning.

 

[Orangeburst]

Will lesser punishment lead to more crime? What we witness today, of course it does. So wouldnt the inverse be true?

 

[85SugarVol]

Actually in the United Arab emerates, North Korea, Saudi Arab all have the harshest punishments and lower crime rates...
The reason it's not been shown effective here is that it's not done publicly so criminals don't realize it..now say 50 years of it and you'll see a major difference..so initially we agree it wouldn't have a huge impact.

Jesus H Christ

The people of those countries live under draconian jack-booted regimes.

That’s what you want here?

That sh!t is absolutely un-American, and 100% completely antithetical to the ideals of our Founders.

 

[utvolpj]

Will lesser punishment lead to more crime? What we witness today, of course it does. So wouldnt the inverse be true?

No

 

[Orangeburst]

No

that defies logic

 

[85SugarVol]

Will lesser punishment lead to more crime? What we witness today, of course it does. So wouldnt the inverse be true?

No punishment could be inferred as positive reinforcement.
Heavy punishment could be inferred as negative reinforcement.

Positive reinforcement will certainly affect behaviors.

 

[utvolpj]

that defies logic

Check the data. It's just not a deterent.

 

[WoodsmanVol]

Will lesser punishment lead to more crime? What we witness today, of course it does. So wouldnt the inverse be true?

Disagree, history and stats show that harsh penalties doesn't stop crime. Like people cherishing spicy hot pepper-flavored foods, some stubbornly persist in actions that can/will result in their death. Humans have an incontestable tendency for three things, risk, spite, and stupidity.

 

[Orangeburst]

Check the data. It's just not a deterent.

look at the CA laws regarding shoplifting..it has increased dramatically because it was degraded to misdemeanor under 1K.

 

[whodeycin85]

Top 10 Incarceration Rates per capita.

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3 of the Top 10 highest incarceration nations have death penalties and active executions. The rest of the top incarceration nations aren't exactly known for being cute and cuddly with their prisoners.

That is out of a total 20 nations that executed someone in 2022.

I don't think the data says harsher punishments leads to fewer criminals.

Would a society with a crime rate less then 1% due to capital punishments have a high number of incarcerated??? So basically if someone lost a life or limb for commiting a crime, and it was standard and publicly done for 50 years do you think crime you be high?

 

[whodeycin85]

The cost of a capital case is greater, and we pay for the Prosecution and the Defense.

It has nothing to do with method of execution. That’s nonsense.

They would get the same number of appeals if they were facing death by stoning.

The difference between a life in prison and a capital is like 500k due to the appeal process for capital cases..but If you eliminate the extra appeals for a capital case your already saving 500k

 

[LouderVol]

Will lesser punishment lead to more crime? What we witness today, of course it does. So wouldnt the inverse be true?

not necessarily. you haven't established causation yet. There are a number of factors that are going into the current crime spree, if you want to call it that.

The economy is in the crapper. crimes, drug use, and vices of all sorts, always increase during economic struggles.
we also had an unprecedented break down of social norms during Covid, that went far beyond the punishment of crimes.
I would also look at the tense political front, historically another reason for increased crime rates. basically the government spends so much effort in the wrong places the actual causes to crime go unaddressed and it grows.
world tension, and other divisive elements are pretty high factors at the moment too.

IMO the punishment deterring crime argument is a lot like increasing the tax rates to get more tax revenue. Its an easy assumption but the background data tells us its simply not true.

 

[whodeycin85]

Jesus H Christ

The people of those countries live under draconian jack-booted regimes.

That’s what you want here?

That sh!t is absolutely un-American, and 100% completely antithetical to the ideals of our Founders.

No I don't want that regime but that is years of a society under the threat of death and loss of limb for crimes against humanity...I believe it can be done within our constitutional society

 

[Orangeburst]

not necessarily. you haven't established causation yet. There are a number of factors that are going into the current crime spree, if you want to call it that.

The economy is in the crapper. crimes, drug use, and vices of all sorts, always increase during economic struggles.
we also had an unprecedented break down of social norms during Covid, that went far beyond the punishment of crimes.
I would also look at the tense political front, historically another reason for increased crime rates. basically the government spends so much effort in the wrong places the actual causes to crime go unaddressed and it grows.
world tension, and other divisive elements are pretty high factors at the moment too.

IMO the punishment deterring crime argument is a lot like increasing the tax rates to get more tax revenue. Its an easy assumption but the background data tells us its simply not true.

so you are saying that reducing the penalty in CA had no effect? Not buying it.

 

[whodeycin85]

not necessarily. you haven't established causation yet. There are a number of factors that are going into the current crime spree, if you want to call it that.

The economy is in the crapper. crimes, drug use, and vices of all sorts, always increase during economic struggles.
we also had an unprecedented break down of social norms during Covid, that went far beyond the punishment of crimes.
I would also look at the tense political front, historically another reason for increased crime rates. basically the government spends so much effort in the wrong places the actual causes to crime go unaddressed and it grows.
world tension, and other divisive elements are pretty high factors at the moment too.

IMO the punishment deterring crime argument is a lot like increasing the tax rates to get more tax revenue. Its an easy assumption but the background data tells us its simply not true.

I guess for me not boils down to this....if the penalty for stealing from an individual is losing a hand vs stealing from a business is just 2 years in jail which do you think will happen more??

 

[LouderVol]

Would a society with a crime rate less then 1% due to capital punishments have a high number of incarcerated??? So basically if someone lost a life or limb for commiting a crime, and it was standard and publicly done for 50 years do you think crime you be high?

if nothing else changed, I would expect crime to stay pretty much the same.

economics seem to have the closest relation to the proliferance of crime from historical trends. punishment doesn't seem to impact the actual rate of crimes.

 

[Orangeburst]

how many people would cheat on their taxes if they didnt fear consequence?
I see a limit to harsher penalty to have positive effect, but at some point you have to have hurtful consequences. This isnt defined in this discussion. May be some are not harsh enough some too harsh.

 

[85SugarVol]

The difference between a life in prison and a capital is like 500k due to the appeal process for capital cases..but If you eliminate the extra appeals for a capital case your already saving 500k

So now you want to execute people AND eliminate their appeals?

Sheesh…

 

[LouderVol]

so you are saying that reducing the penalty in CA had no effect? Not buying it.

I am saying a much bigger factor is the crap economy the same politicians created. the policies in CA created the situation that lead to more crime. they could be shooting every single one of them they catch and the rate would still be higher than normal. it might be lower than it is right now, but it would be elevated from whatever the norm worked out to be.

people out there have no money, no real hope to improve their future, everything costs way more than it should. those facts are going to lead to more crime, than simply not punishing the crimes. people aren't out there robbing train cars because they are bored and know they will get away with it. they are doing it because they are poor.

 

[utvolpj]

Law of diminishing returns. There's a point where added consequence no longer matters

 

[Orangeburst]

I am saying a much bigger factor is the crap economy the same politicians created. the policies in CA created the situation that lead to more crime. they could be shooting every single one of them they catch and the rate would still be higher than normal. it might be lower than it is right now, but it would be elevated from whatever the norm worked out to be.

people out there have no money, no real hope to improve their future, everything costs way more than it should. those facts are going to lead to more crime, than simply not punishing the crimes. people aren't out there robbing train cars because they are bored and know they will get away with it. they are doing it because they are poor.

other than harsher penalty, what would you propose to reduce this crime? Lock toothpaste in plexiglass?