Daily Dose of Reality, Episode I

#126
#126
JonWard said:
Hatvol,

Your assessment of the game this weekend agrees with the experts in Vegas, in so much that they too are calling for a Gator vicotry.

My question is this?

In your view, what will it take for the Vols to upset Florida?
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You do realize that the experts in Vegas aren't trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to predict what they believe the average bettor believes will be the outcome of the game.

In this game, given the 3.5 point spread, they felt that in order to get an even number of bets on both sides they needed to spot UT 3.5points. It's based on their assessment of bettors, and modified through the week as the betting continues (that's why a betting line often moves some during the week).

So the average bettor believes that Florida has a good chance of beating UT by about 4 points. The average bettor (not necessarily being affiliated with either team) has the access to pretty much all of the information that anyone on this board has.

Why do you believe that the average bettor is picking Florida to win AT Tennessee?

The answer to that question goes a long way towards answering yours.
 
#129
#129
no1g8r said:
You do realize that the experts in Vegas aren't trying to predict the outcome of the game, they are trying to predict what they believe the average bettor believes will be the outcome of the game.

In this game, given the 3.5 point spread, they felt that in order to get an even number of bets on both sides they needed to spot UT 3.5points. It's based on their assessment of bettors, and modified through the week as the betting continues (that's why a betting line often moves some during the week).

So the average bettor believes that Florida has a good chance of beating UT by about 4 points. The average bettor (not necessarily being affiliated with either team) has the access to pretty much all of the information that anyone on this board has.

Why do you believe that the average bettor is picking Florida to win AT Tennessee?

The answer to that question goes a long way towards answering yours.
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Well crap, if they're picking UF I guess the Vols just needn't play a down. They should just skip this game and prepare for Marshall since all the gambling addicts say it's going to happen.
 
#130
#130
OWB said:
Well crap, if they're picking UF I guess the Vols just needn't play a down. They should just skip this game and prepare for Marshall since all the gambling addicts say it's going to happen.
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What? we're GOING to lose? well crap. i guess i need to change my plans Saturday night....i guess the good news is that i now have 3 hours of free time on my hands...

gimmie a break.
 
#131
#131
jakez4ut said:
What? we're GOING to lose? well crap. i guess i need to change my plans Saturday night....i guess the good news is that i now have 3 hours of free time on my hands...

gimmie a break.
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Yep, the spread is always a sure thing Jake and the team favored is certainly always the best team, it would be best if you made other plans.
 
#132
#132
OWB said:
Yep, the spread is always a sure thing Jake and the team favored is certainly always the best team, it would be best if you made other plans.
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this is just for you OWB...

"and we always play better as an underdog".:p
 
#134
#134
OWB said:
:dance2::dance2::dance2:

Ryan Karl tends to agree...
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:lolabove: Of course he does....all vols and vol fans agree....

i wish we were the underdog every week, and everyone just said bad things about us all the time.

we'd never lose.:blink:
 
#135
#135
OF COURSE HatVol is going to make a bet where he "stays off the board".

Tennessee and Phillip Fulmer are MUCH better than he expected, and he doesn't want to sit around and eat crow.

Now he has an excuse not to come back and answer for his negative, insane, immature remarks all offseason, and you all played right into his hands.

How dumb.
 
#137
#137
Well, I suppose we will find out Sat. who's for real. UF has looked good against Inferior competition. Kind of hard to tell where you are at as a team when you've been playing patty-cake the past couple of weeks. Florida's defense looks very solid and im not too sure we are gonna get through this game without Ainge getting a lil' dirty. Im still not sold on Urban Meyer's offense in the SEC, he seems to be one hell of a recruiter though.

UT having those two guys out on Defense will hurt later on in the game when guys start wearing down. Our LB's play will be crucial if we plan on Chris Leak on a gurny. Tennessee has looked great on offense in both games, Defense may have been suspect against Air Force, but the gators arent bringing the wishbone to Neyland....so, Im not overly worried. I dont expect Ainge to throw for 350 or anything, getting our ground game going as in years past will be key to getting the "O" going in this one. UF is capable of beating us, but we have so much more this season to play for... IMO, and I just cant see UF walking all over us at home with the motivation coming from everywhere to play our hearts out, winning one for Inky and Justin, and never having a season like the one we just had.

All I can say is Florida better bring their "A" game, If not you Gators will get embarrased.

GO VOLS!!
 
#139
#139
I'm not sure I'd agree with the "nice post" with the comment about "carrying Chris Leak out on a gurny(sic)" comment, but otherwise I agree with the new poster's sentiment. If either team doesn't bring their A game, this one could get ugly. If both DO bring their best, it should be a good, close, down-to-the-wire game.

I can hardly wait!
 
#140
#140
I think he was enthusiasticly saying that our D needs to knock Chrissy down a few times to rattle him from his game, I for one don't want to see any player hurt bad enough to be carried off on a stretcher, just bad enough that he feels it for about 2 weeks after all we are talkin' football here, not tiddly winks.
 
#141
#141
no1g8r said:
I'm not sure I'd agree with the "nice post" with the comment about "carrying Chris Leak out on a gurny(sic)" comment, but otherwise I agree with the new poster's sentiment. If either team doesn't bring their A game, this one could get ugly. If both DO bring their best, it should be a good, close, down-to-the-wire game.

I can hardly wait!
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Chris Leak is completely capable of giving us fits, I myself would rather have Tebow thrown to the wolves in Neyland Stadium... Thats all Im saying. :whistling:
 
#142
#142
wncvolfan said:
Law, how much is Freak paying you to start these threads? 13 pages of replies so far!
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Wait until Episode II tomorrow!!

OWB said:
Well crap, if they're picking UF I guess the Vols just needn't play a down. They should just skip this game and prepare for Marshall since all the gambling addicts say it's going to happen.
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Hey, don't go knocking my hobbies.

ImFreakinOrange said:
Chris Leak is completely capable of giving us fits, I myself would rather have Tebow thrown to the wolves in Neyland Stadium... Thats all Im saying. :whistling:
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Careful what you wish for.
 
#143
#143
Way to rally the troops, LG.

I'm (as you know) not one who needs a "reality check." I think both teams are, yet, untested this year (sorry Cal fans). (Not really). This will be the first dose of SEC football, and it promises to be a game that really "separates the men from the boys." Neyland and the Vol Nation will be ready, and we'll bring the same energy that pulled us past UF in '04. UF will have the same intensity, rest assured, and will be prepared to face hostility as great as they will ever see.

To quote Blue Collar wisdom: "I Believe:"

-That the team who turns the ball over least will be least likely to lose
-That pressure on the opposing QB will pay dividends equivalent to tech stocks in the late '90's
-That the kickers better have warm legs
-That rushing the football will have more importance than many people will want to accept
-That dropped balls will be costly
-That, no matter the outcome, we will still love to hate each other
 
#145
#145
lawgator1 said:
Fratricide.

Guys, let's not forget its Tennessee-Florida week. Wouldn't you rather focus all this hostility on me and my beloved Gators?

After all, we are used to it.
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Geez. The Gator is the only reasonalbe one in this thread. :)
 
#146
#146
You just have no idea the juggernaut that awaits you on Saturday night.

Remember the name Percy Harvin.

And then treasure these moments of hope always and forever because after Saturday, and when it becomes clear what Harvin holds in store for you for the next three years, you will look back at these days and remember when there was ... hope.
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Juggernaut...........LG what does this game generally come down to?

Yeah you guessed it, who controls the line of scrimmage and dominates the running game.

Unless ol' percy turns into a running back, I would not bank my hopes and dreams on a freshman.

I'll take my chances against Florida...............with Foster and company.......................
 
#147
#147
OrangeEmpire said:
Juggernaut...........LG what does this game generally come down to?

Yeah you guessed it, who controls the line of scrimmage and dominates the running game.

Unless ol' percy turns into a running back, I would not bank my hopes and dreams on a freshman.

I'll take my chances against Florida...............with Foster and company.......................
Click to expand...

Florida has actually been lining Percy up as a running back as well, so watch out for what you say. :)
 
#148
#148
Septic, I already explained to LawGator1 that I was just tryin to get him fired up. I like Lawgator1(which is not normal since i don't like any florida fans) and enjoy his posts. I just wanted to see if i could stir sumthing up. So before you start another reply like that make sure you read all the posts. Don't be embarrassed for me be embarrassed that you didnt get ur facts straight
 
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