It's obvious that the 88 team has written off the 2009 season. At this point, they are working on set-ups and chemistry for 2010. Yes, he might be 25th in points but several good drivers have gone through season long slumps, some even longer.
Juan Pablo finished 25th last year. He is running pretty good now. Dale Jr. was in the chase just last year too. Ryan Newman was 17th, Kurt Busch 18th, Vickers 19th and Reutimann 22nd last year. I would say all those drivers are running much better in 2009. Why can't Jr. turn it around in 2010?
He might be mediocre, not sure where to draw that line with Cup drivers since it really is a team sport but I would give him more than a bad year before I write him off.
Jr. may never be a champion but I see no reason why he can't win races and make the chase most years.