Defensive Stop Rate

[Wickman]

@ChattaTNVol you should post your data here too

 

[Ratvol]

When Banks was hired, I looked at his previous jobs and was encouraged. His teams generally improved year over year.
Unfortunately, there are moments in games. and whole games, too, where the defense looks completely ineffective.

I think a lot of that is due to inferior players. As recruiting improves so will our defense. We got some good recruits this year with hopes of even better next year. If you build it, they will come.

Go VOLS

 

[AllThingsTN]

Seriously? This conversation is quickly breaking down into stuff like this.

Averages have a place. Averages NEVER tell the whole story... because they're "averages" of different things. If a salesman "averages" 100% of his goal over a period of time but you find that he collapses completely at times as well... you don't ignore the latter. In fact, the latter is likely a reason to fire him.

I can maybe agree with that first statement. So why did an O with equal talent to a D score 63 points? Answer that question and you begin to understand why I'm not buying Banks YET.

The latter is ridiculous. I don't know and neither do you.

Why not? That would be fair or you could have said that the D held 10 opponents to their season average or below. Completely fair. Good reason to hope that Banks can get the job done.

But those games aren't the problem. Nor is a game like Bama a big concern to me. It is those games that UT had enough talent to compete well against an opposing O and got completely trucked. That's where my doubts come from.

I don't want Banks to fail. I'm not writing him off or saying he cannot win my confidence for whatever that's worth. I'm simply saying that he's done things that leave me with significant doubts about his ability. His inconsistencies are troubling.

The O has carried the D for two years. But to your point, I would be comfortable with 23 ppg like they had last fall. Allowing 405 ypg isn't so great... and being mid-pack in yds/play isn't flipping anyone's skirt up. But I would take all of those numbers if the game results were plus or minus 10-15%. But the results are literally all over the place. Some good, some bad... but 9 of their 13 games saw opponents with total O greater than 445 or less than 365. That's why looking at the average alone doesn't work.

Did I actually say that?

Again, I agree that points matter. I believe that yardage matters. But the averages don't tell the story.


I don't find those stats convenient at all. I find them highly inconvenient... concerning. If Banks' D allowed 28 ppg like it did in '21 but didn't allow the 40+ point collapses then I'd be pretty happy. UT would have an opportunity to win every game. It is precisely the collapses that screw up great seasons. Right? What prevented UT from making a strong case to be in the CFP instead of either TCU or OSU? It wasn't UT's defensive averages across the season. It was a defensive collapse against a not very great team.

Do I think it is possible for UT to improve? Yes. Do I think it is possible that Banks can lead the D to success? Yes. But I do not see that as PROVEN. I see that as something still to be determined.

This guy’s back and forth talking out of both sides of his mouth never ceases to amaze me. “Our defensive numbers have gone up each year”. “Yeah well explain to me USC and Bama”. “You cherry picked their worst rankings per site”. “I used the 247 composite”. “Oh well that must mean you think the rankings are be-all-end-all”.

Lordy, that was just a few examples. It never ends.

 

[Vol524]

The yards allowed don't matter. It is the points allowed that will beat you.

 

[Vol8188]

The yards allowed don't matter. It is the points allowed that will beat you.

Even then you have to adjust the data for the number of drives. So points per drive

 

[ThreatLevelOrange]

I've been saying the only 3 defense stats that really matter are...

1. Turnovers
2. Punts
3. Forced FG attempts in the redzone

These are the only stats that matter in today's game. Stats like tackles for loss, sacks, rushing/passing yards allowed, etc. Those are kind of meaningless in today's game.

#3 is huge. Our OFFENSIVE red zone efficiency was awesome. All we have to do is consistently trade 3 for our 7 and it adds up.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

At Tuesdays Press Conference, like clockwork, the media asked Coach Banks about stats.

He mentioned, as usually, he knows the stats, but the only stat that he really focuses on is "stop rate". He said that his goal is to find a way to stop the other team from scoring and getting off the field so that the offense can get on the field and score because in football, that's how you win games.

We are #23 in the country in stop rate for 2022. For perspective, Michigan #3, Penn State #5, Georgia #8, Ohio State #11 and Alabama #18. All of these programs have talent, depth and experience on D that we don't have, yet we were just as effective in stop rate.

In 2021, we were #86 in stop rate. We improved and moved 63 spots in one year and there are only 5 or 6 defenses in the country that improved more.

We are heading in the right direction on D.

To the folks that always bash Banks, I ask them " who do you think in NCAA comes in and does better with the talent we have had back there?"

I think Banks has done a great job other than the SCjr game given the debacle that was our secondary, and only having a couple serviceable LBs....NONE of which can cover a pass...ever. We have steadily improved on defense and will continue to. We will never have a top 10 defense with our offensive scheme. Never. Period. CJH knows this too...but with a top25 defense and our offense we can win Championships. GO VOLS

That doesn’t tell the full story. We played really well defensively but the number 1 pick in the upcoming draft continually made exceptional plays. We had constant pressure and lived in their backfield.

Edit: how well you play and outcome are not always the same. For example you could be the best defender in nba history, be right on top of an elite shooter and him still hit the shot. That’s basically what happened against Bama

Bama had a top 5 pick NFL QB, Heisman winner...the shiftiest and quickest RB in the country in Gibbs which we held to 100yards despite mucho carries, 5 star players at WR, Oline, Dline, LB, you name it. True David vs Goliath battle from a talent perspective...and we BEAT THEM for the biggest win at Neyland in 20 plus years!!! Anybody beitching about that team or game is objectively full of crap
That win alone landed us the final decision on half of our most talented recruits for 23 and 24 at a minimum...because the recruits were actually THERE!!! We hosted everyone we REALLY wanted for that ballgame as a masterclass in recruiting prowess!

 

[VFL28]

The defense just needs better pass coverage. We'd be in a good spot if we could improve that.

 

[Vol8188]

The defense just needs better pass coverage. We'd be in a good spot if we could improve that.

The BYU corner transfer had some really good PFF grades. And then hopefully slaughter or one or the freshmen can hold down the other side

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Here you go bud

Pretty cut and dried there.

Defense went from 29ppg to 22ppg last season. A huge 25% decrease in points allowed...which is the most important stat of all simply because the scoreboard is what determines wins and losses. Huge. Despite having a much tougher schedule last year AND giving up 60 freaking points to the chickens in a headscratcher. Our pass defense drove me insane just like everyone else...but our front 7 was much improved. Thomas, Baron, and the freshmen DL that showed promise last season should be much improved for 23...

The BYU corner transfer had some really good PFF grades. And then hopefully slaughter or one or the freshmen can hold down the other side

Our 3star DBs...all 11 of them that played meaningful snaps IIRC...were so bad that we gave 10 yard cushions on every snap even playing Man coverage many times. We flat sucked back deep...and our LBs couldnt cover a mouse with a mattress to save their lives either. Absolutely horrendous, and women casuals even noticed it and talked junk...it was warranted too.

We brought in 7 new DBs if memory serves that are EACH rated higher out of HS than 11 out of the 14DBs from last season had ever been rated by any service as a HS kid, portal player, or JUCO. On paper thats a BIG upgrade in talent at CB and Safety....and all the measurables as far as height, speed, weight, etc seem to agree as well. Looking at FINGERS trademark videos etc, there definitely looks like an upgrade in talent , size, and depth has taken place in our Secondary. The def backfield was clearly the focus of this class after Nico...with almost a third of our scholarships spent on DBs...

Coaches Hype and Banks have forgotten and discarded more football knowledge than any posters here on this board will ever have. Even guys who played/coach and actually study the Xs and Os like you and I do....they both know that their multi million dollar careers and reputations hang on our offensive, defensive, and special teams units. I think we got very lucky and caught an up and coming HC AND DC just before their peaks. I think we will win SEC and NCAA titles because of them. Our 20 years in the wilderness is over. Coach Hype is taking us to VOL Promised Land.

Yall should just buckle up and enjoy the ride. Oh...and quit trashing our coaches, especially on social media. These guys are gonna be here a while IMO...and we are very lucky to have the staff that we have. Even though i think this is a 9-3 season due to our schedule. We will be in the playoffs in 24 with a great shot at a Title!!! GBO VFL

WGWTFA

 

[marcusluvsvols]

The BYU corner transfer had some really good PFF grades. And then hopefully slaughter or one or the freshmen can hold down the other side

Agree. Byu dude will likely start day 1 at Corner...may not make it all year though starting due to freshmen maturing.

We should be a little better at both Corner and Safety from game 1....hoping the depth helps later in games also where they faded badly last season due to fatigue and a lack of talented backups.

 

[RockyTopTexas]

Agree. Byu dude will likely start day 1 at Corner...may not make it all year though starting due to freshmen maturing.

We should be a little better at both Corner and Safety from game 1....hoping the depth helps later in games also where they faded badly last season due to fatigue and a lack of talented backups.

Gabe and pili both came to start

 

[DawgInterloper]

Even then you have to adjust the data for the number of drives. So points per drive

I like points per drive too, for offensive and defensive efficiency. It accounts for both stop rate and outcome of the successful drives (FG vs TD). But statistics are always flawed, so you need to adjust for length of drives, andd garbage time drives and quality of opponents, which introduce subjectivity. Brian Fremeau's FEI rating makes a reasonable attempt to do all of that, but it still can't capture which teams were worn down by tough contests at various points in the season, and which were well rested, which key players were hurt for which games, which teams got better or worse as the season progressed, etc.

In the end, everybody can find some stat that makes them happy and optimistic and that's fine because it's entertainment, not warfare.

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

I've been saying the only 3 defense stats that really matter are...

1. Turnovers
2. Punts
3. Forced FG attempts in the redzone

These are the only stats that matter in today's game. Stats like tackles for loss, sacks, rushing/passing yards allowed, etc. Those are kind of meaningless in today's game.

I agree with your overall point, but while sacks, tfls, etc. aren’t that meaningful as statistics, the actual occurrence of those things is how you get the statistics you do want. It’s a little like saying “Sunlight and water are meaningless, we just need the corn to grow.”

I agree though, that it’s silly as fans to scratch our heads and whine about the inputs when the output is right there in front of us.

 

[MemphisVol77]

Sorry guys I was angry about the game last night

Don't apologize. Make them hold hands.