Do the Recruiting Stars Matter, 2023 Draft

#76
#76
Vols4us said:
Follow the results of the OP's analytics throughout the careers of the players listed. Do the same in prior years. You might be able to find a general trend line, but nothing specific that 100% validates.

How do you account for the various competencies of the coaching staffs' development and systems for all of the teams during up and down performance cycles of their orgs? That some are 3 and others are 4 or 5 can simply be because of their lack of development in HS.

There's a whole lot more to it. Presenting recruiting service rankings is prima facia type evidence. On first appearance it appears to be X, but subject to further evidence or information.

The player coming out of HS with a high rating will probably receive more offers from schools that have better coaching staffs and systems. So going to camps will provide more exposure. Not going to camps will provide less exposure. In general, there are more offers from better schools to those who go. Recruiting services do what they do to make money - they are not charities. Some cannot afford to go.

It goes on and on.
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All the things you mentioned only make what the recruiting services do, even more impressive. It’s hard to predict things like growth, weight gain, coaching, etc.
 
#78
#78
Vol8188 said:
All the things you mentioned only make what the recruiting services do, even more impressive. It’s hard to predict things like growth, weight gain, coaching, etc.
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Actually the hard to predict things is what convinced me to not take them so seriously. Especially the 5*. There’s no guarantee they will start as a freshman or be drafted in the first round like they are saying. And there’s no guarantee a 3* will not end up a really good college player for you. So I get excited about whatever potential they have to help the team succeed while at the same time realizing some of them will not make it (even some of the 5*s). Seen it happen too many years in a row. The only thing you can get from the rankings is how many blue chips you end up with as a team. And with the portal that is constantly changing.
 
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#79
#79
SweetasSoda said:
Actually the hard to predict things is what convinced me to not take them so seriously. Especially the 5*. There’s no guarantee they will start as a freshman or be drafted in the first round like they are saying. And there’s no guarantee a 3* will not end up a really good college player for you. So I get excited about whatever potential they have to help the team succeed while at the same time realizing some of them will not make it (even some of the 5*s). Seen it happen too many years in a row. The only thing you can get from the rankings is how many blue chips you end up with as a team. And with the portal that is constantly changing.
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Sure. Nothing is ever guaranteed. But yet 5*s on average are the most likely to do those things you mentioned, followed by 4*s, and so on.

But even a 100% perfect system could never predict all these things with 100% accuracy
 
#81
#81
Vol8188 said:
Sure. Nothing is ever guaranteed. But yet 5*s on average are the most likely to do those things you mentioned, followed by 4*s, and so on.

But even a 100% perfect system could never predict all these things with 100% accuracy
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Exactly. So only the team ranking really matters. And you can get excited at the potential any recruit has. You may be getting a Cam Sutton or a Peyton Manning. Or you may be getting one of those players you never remember their name. (Unless you’re Butchna. He’s good at that.)
 
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#85
#85
So
Vol8188 said:
We’ve talked about that. And it’s higher than that of 4* or 3* players. And the odds of them being drafted is over 80%.

Why would we throw that out? And yes, it’s a very surprising subset to pick out of an entire nation 3-4 years in advance.
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Some men at 247 and others arbitrarily picked them as potential 1st rounders

We are trying to determine the reliability

Saying a 5 star got drafted in the 7th undermines your claim

Nobody i know disputes a 5 star is more likely to be talented than a 4 star.

But if 32 5 stars appear each year, then whether they went in the 1st round seems like an important metric to take into account
 
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#86
#86
bignewt said:
I think development should also be very much taken into account. Where did those 5 stars go to school? Not only did they probably get ratings bumps due to their commitment they also went to schools that churn out picks, teams the NFL trusts. It's more than stars, it's a cycle.
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Are ratings bumps warranted as well given how much a school puts players into the league?
 
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#87
#87
Vol8188 said:
Lol you’ve yet to make any points. What’s your best evidence against star rankings?
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But I did. You disregard them because of your loyalty to your nerd cult. “Best evidence” is acknowledgment they’re nowhere near the evaluators as the best coaches and copy their work. Plays out every year. No hate. Like Mel Kiper, they created a fake job to make a living.
 
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#89
#89
butchna said:
But I did. You disregard them because of your loyalty to your nerd cult. “Best evidence” is acknowledgment they’re nowhere near the evaluators as the best coaches and copy their work. Plays out every year. No hate. Like Mel Kiper, they created a fake job to make a living.
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lol so your entire argument is “one player ending up being a better pro years later than a 5*!”

If that’s the best you got, everyone should disregard it
 
#90
#90
StoVol said:
So
Some men at 247 and others arbitrarily picked them as potential 1st rounders

We are trying to determine the reliability

Saying a 5 star got drafted in the 7th undermines your claim

Nobody i know disputes a 5 star is more likely to be talented than a 4 star.

But if 32 5 stars appear each year, then whether they went in the 1st round seems like an important metric to take into account
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If a 5* is more talented, how can you proclaim they “arbitrarily picked them”?

It is an important metric, sure. And they still hit over 30% on that specific metric. You don’t think that’s impressive?

We should also look at other metrics, like total drafted.
 
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#93
#93
SIAP. This appears to weigh the number of recruits per how many there actually are.

For example, there are an average of 32 5-star recruits per year. 26 were just drafted. That's a hit rate of 81.3% if you achieve a 5-star ranking.

 
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#95
#95
Vol8188 said:
lol so your entire argument is “one player ending up being a better pro years later than a 5*!”

If that’s the best you got, everyone should disregard it
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There are MANY more examples borne out over MANY draft classes. Are you really cackling out loud…like at work? 🤨

I’m sure EVERYONE lives to follow your lead.
 
#96
#96
Vol8188 said:
Nope. They’re a bunch of nerds and they suck because they didn’t know Jason Kelce would move from inside Lb to center and put on 60lbs.
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I didn’t say anything about their personal lives. Would guess they don’t get many dates.
 
#97
#97
jakez4ut said:
Byron Young, Cedric Tillman, Hendon hooker were not blue chip prospects. Jalin Hyatt wasn't even getting looked at by his home state schools....

Sure higher rated guys give you a hedged bet on productive talent.

But development sells too.
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Throw in Velus as well last year; I’m sure I’m forgetting someone as well. Hell it’s arguable that most of these guys don’t even get drafted if not for this staff.
 
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#98
#98
Vol8188 said:
lol so your entire argument is “one player ending up being a better pro years later than a 5*!”

If that’s the best you got, everyone should disregard it
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Ok, y'all let the debates! Some of us have to pretend to work.
 
#99
#99
butchna said:
There are MANY more examples borne out over MANY draft classes. Are you really cackling out loud…like at work? 🤨

I’m sure EVERYONE lives to follow your lead.
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Yes. There’s examples of games Saban has lost too. That doesn’t mean he’s bad at his job. 81% is really, really good.

“I can name guys they missed”-proves nothing. I can name guys Fulmer missed, Saban missed, etc. No model nor person can accurately predict the ability of a guy like Kelce to put on 60lbs and move to center
 
#100
#100
StoVol said:
A 5 star is a 1st round projection

Then you skew the argument in your favor by taking as evidence projection favorability from the fact that said 5 stars were taken in ANY round

Many times these 17 year olds are developed physically at a younger age and dominate high school football

A third to half of them really are that good, ie, good enough to make the NFL in some round

But the 1st round projection is poor, seeing that "hey this young fella can really play some football" is not all that surprising that a subset really stand out

There is a mixture of pure talent and big fish small pond going on

The average hit rate of 5 stars going 1st round should be your starting point data
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to me I think the issue is a difference between accuracy and precision. I think overall the recruiting analysts are accurate, these kids are talented; but not very precise, First Round vs 7th round.

the 5* hit rate is pretty dang close to the NFL draft overall success rate. I am not saying its perfect. Just pointing out that the recruiting services do get it right enough where you can see positive trends based on their ratings.

and with all of the variability I don't think looking at the first round only paints a good picture. Yes a 5* ranking means the recruiting guys think the kid is round 1 in 3 to 5 years; but I am not calling it much of a miss if most of the guys they call a 5* get drafted period. Obviously they found kids with enough talent/promise to be drafted. which is a high bar. and then you start playing the percentages of the draft rounds and their accuracy for when the 5* tend to go.
 
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