Does Tennessee Make the 2013 NCAA Tournament

Does Tennessee Make the Field of 68

  • Total voters
    0
#51
#51
PagingDrVol said:
OK - I will play the "bad loss" game with you.

Georgia currently has an RPI of 129 and is 14-15 on the season. Clearly, losing to that team twice is not a positive. BUT, these Georgia losses are our only "bad losses" (which I define here as a loss to a team out of the Top 75). Our other losses are to teams ranked 10, 19, 25, 51, 56, 59 (twice), 60, and 72, ranging from @Georgetown to @Arkansas.

BUT, let's now have a look at the teams we are being compared to for the final spots in the NCAA's. Realistically, we are competing for one of approximately 4-5 spots with about 11 teams (I'm not going to go into what would happen with conference tournament upset winners here, for the sake of simplicity, but obviously those are bad for UT). The teams we need to edge out are probably any 5 or 6 of the following:

Kentucky
Villanova
Iowa State
Wichita State
Temple
Belmont
Mississippi
Alabama
Baylor
Boise State

You want to compare bad losses? Ok, let's do that. The only one who is notably better off than we are is Kentucky, which has no losses outside the top 100 RPIs (and whom we split with H2H)...

VU has losses to #266 Columbia, and this weekend at #115 Seton Hall. We aren't that bad.

Iowa State has losses to #224 Texas Tech and #126 Texas. We aren't that bad.

Wichita State has losses to #101 Evansville twice, and #178 Southern Ill. We beat them H2H. We aren't that bad.

Temple has losses to #110 Canusius, #105 St Bonaventure, #209 Duquesne. We are not that bad.

Belmont has losses to #158 Northeastern, #111 UCF, and #131 Murray State. We are not that bad.

Mississippi swept us, granted. But they also have "last 10 games" losses to #203 South Carolina and #226 Miss State. From a bad loss perspective, we have them crushed.

Bama, whom we split with, has HOME losses to #104 Dayton, #127 Mercer, and #176 Tulane. We are way better off, given that we have a single bad loss at home.

Baylor has losses to #143 College of Charleston and #144 Northwestern.

Which leaves Boise State, who has a single bad loss to #160 Nevada. One could argue that we are about equal to them in terms of bad losses.


Obviously, bad losses are an issue the selection committee will take into consideration. Another is quality wins, which we could address in another thread (and when compared to this list, we have by far the best one in #7 Florida). Another would be recent momentum, which is usually measured as record in the final ten games of the regular season. We can analyze all that if you want.

But, the notion that our two bad losses versus GA should somehow disqualify us is LUDICROUS. From a comparative standpoint, we are far better off in the bad loss column than at least 9 of the 11 teams we need to worry about. Your argument just doesn't hold up when the data are scrutinized. Nothing personal meant.

PDV
Click to expand...

Great stuff man. Thanks for the work into this post. :hi:
 
#52
#52
PagingDrVol said:
OK - I will play the "bad loss" game with you.

Georgia currently has an RPI of 129 and is 14-15 on the season. Clearly, losing to that team twice is not a positive. BUT, these Georgia losses are our only "bad losses" (which I define here as a loss to a team out of the Top 75). Our other losses are to teams ranked 10, 19, 25, 51, 56, 59 (twice), 60, and 72, ranging from @Georgetown to @Arkansas.

BUT, let's now have a look at the teams we are being compared to for the final spots in the NCAA's. Realistically, we are competing for one of approximately 4-5 spots with about 11 teams (I'm not going to go into what would happen with conference tournament upset winners here, for the sake of simplicity, but obviously those are bad for UT). The teams we need to edge out are probably any 5 or 6 of the following:

Kentucky
Villanova
Iowa State
Wichita State
Temple
Belmont
Mississippi
Alabama
Baylor
Boise State

You want to compare bad losses? Ok, let's do that. The only one who is notably better off than we are is Kentucky, which has no losses outside the top 100 RPIs (and whom we split with H2H)...

VU has losses to #266 Columbia, and this weekend at #115 Seton Hall. We aren't that bad.

Iowa State has losses to #224 Texas Tech and #126 Texas. We aren't that bad.

Wichita State has losses to #101 Evansville twice, and #178 Southern Ill. We beat them H2H. We aren't that bad.

Temple has losses to #110 Canusius, #105 St Bonaventure, #209 Duquesne. We are not that bad.

Belmont has losses to #158 Northeastern, #111 UCF, and #131 Murray State. We are not that bad.

Mississippi swept us, granted. But they also have "last 10 games" losses to #203 South Carolina and #226 Miss State. From a bad loss perspective, we have them crushed.

Bama, whom we split with, has HOME losses to #104 Dayton, #127 Mercer, and #176 Tulane. We are way better off, given that we have a single bad loss at home.

Baylor has losses to #143 College of Charleston and #144 Northwestern.

Which leaves Boise State, who has a single bad loss to #160 Nevada. One could argue that we are about equal to them in terms of bad losses.


Obviously, bad losses are an issue the selection committee will take into consideration. Another is quality wins, which we could address in another thread (and when compared to this list, we have by far the best one in #7 Florida). Another would be recent momentum, which is usually measured as record in the final ten games of the regular season. We can analyze all that if you want.

But, the notion that our two bad losses versus GA should somehow disqualify us is LUDICROUS. From a comparative standpoint, we are far better off in the bad loss column than at least 9 of the 11 teams we need to worry about. Your argument just doesn't hold up when the data are scrutinized. Nothing personal meant.

PDV
Click to expand...

I rarely like a post, or quote one this long, but this needs to stay at the front for people to see.

Great breakdown sir.
 
#53
#53
calban said:
Want to play elite teams?
Schedule them.
One of the reasons we're outside looking in is because we schedule so many 200+ rpi teams.
If we can't beat the 100-200 rpi teams, why worry about dancing.
Click to expand...

Simply false. We played 5 teams in the current RPI top 50, and 6 below RPI 200. A 1:1 ratio of top50/below200 is about normal for power conference teams. In fact, of the RPI top 10, only Michigan State scheduled fewer RPI 200+ games than Tennessee did.

And our record versus RPI 100+ was 9-2, with the GA games being the only losses, so to say we "can't beat" those teams is just being trollish.

{{Thanks for the props, Bleeding and ZJC.}}
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#55
#55
:cray:No way wishful thinking, wait till next year then we will dance till midnight if we can get point guard play, one game playing like a AA and the next game playing like a kid that has not seen a BB before wont get it in crunch time,
 
#56
#56
PagingDrVol said:
OK - I will play the "bad loss" game with you.

Georgia currently has an RPI of 129 and is 14-15 on the season. Clearly, losing to that team twice is not a positive. BUT, these Georgia losses are our only "bad losses" (which I define here as a loss to a team out of the Top 75). Our other losses are to teams ranked 10, 19, 25, 51, 56, 59 (twice), 60, and 72, ranging from @Georgetown to @Arkansas.

BUT, let's now have a look at the teams we are being compared to for the final spots in the NCAA's. Realistically, we are competing for one of approximately 4-5 spots with about 11 teams (I'm not going to go into what would happen with conference tournament upset winners here, for the sake of simplicity, but obviously those are bad for UT). The teams we need to edge out are probably any 5 or 6 of the following:

Kentucky
Villanova
Iowa State
Wichita State
Temple
Belmont
Mississippi
Alabama
Baylor
Boise State

You want to compare bad losses? Ok, let's do that. The only one who is notably better off than we are is Kentucky, which has no losses outside the top 100 RPIs (and whom we split with H2H)...

VU has losses to #266 Columbia, and this weekend at #115 Seton Hall. We aren't that bad.

Iowa State has losses to #224 Texas Tech and #126 Texas. We aren't that bad.

Wichita State has losses to #101 Evansville twice, and #178 Southern Ill. We beat them H2H. We aren't that bad.

Temple has losses to #110 Canusius, #105 St Bonaventure, #209 Duquesne. We are not that bad.

Belmont has losses to #158 Northeastern, #111 UCF, and #131 Murray State. We are not that bad.

Mississippi swept us, granted. But they also have "last 10 games" losses to #203 South Carolina and #226 Miss State. From a bad loss perspective, we have them crushed.

Bama, whom we split with, has HOME losses to #104 Dayton, #127 Mercer, and #176 Tulane. We are way better off, given that we have a single bad loss at home.

Baylor has losses to #143 College of Charleston and #144 Northwestern.

Which leaves Boise State, who has a single bad loss to #160 Nevada. One could argue that we are about equal to them in terms of bad losses.


Obviously, bad losses are an issue the selection committee will take into consideration. Another is quality wins, which we could address in another thread (and when compared to this list, we have by far the best one in #7 Florida). Another would be recent momentum, which is usually measured as record in the final ten games of the regular season. We can analyze all that if you want.

But, the notion that our two bad losses versus GA should somehow disqualify us is LUDICROUS. From a comparative standpoint, we are far better off in the bad loss column than at least 9 of the 11 teams we need to worry about. Your argument just doesn't hold up when the data are scrutinized. Nothing personal meant.

PDV
Click to expand...

One of our plusses is fading.
Our good wins:
KY has fallen out of the top 50 rpi.
and Witchy is on the bubble in some brackets.
 
#59
#59
calban said:
One of our plusses is fading.
Our good wins:
KY has fallen out of the top 50 rpi.
and Witchy is on the bubble in some brackets.
Click to expand...

On the flip side if UGA was to win their last 2 and one in the tourney there's a chance they may break 100 and thus we'd have NO bad losses :)
 
#61
#61
Had a feeling this vote would be 50%. That's about right, seeing as I couldn't decide for myself. Haha.
 
#63
#63
Think we're already in. 12 seed or better by my sources.
We can play our way out ,however.
 
#65
#65
One word answer, yes. I think they can win the next 2 or 3 and get in.

But this is hard to predict because there are so many bubble teams this year, and how they finish out. It will also depend alot on how many non-at large teams win there conference tourneys, taking up at large slots.

Here's the long version with senario's: If we lose to Auburn, we would have to win the SEC tourney. Would be too bad of a loss to overcome.

If we beat Auburn and lose to Mizzou in a very close hard fought game, they may could get in with at least 2 wins in the SEC tourney. I still say we would probably have to win the tourney to get in.

If we beat both AU and Mizzou, and lose the first tourney game, I'm gonna say 50/50 if we make it in or not. If we add a tourney win to that, I think we are in definitely.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top