Does UT make a 12 team playoff with 10 wins?

[Cartervol]

Depends on what other teams in the SEC are 10-2 and who they beat. They'll probably take 4 most years out the SEC could see 5 sometimes. Anymore than that and they'll cry bias like they always do. One thing is for sure with OU and UTjr now in the SEC, being one of those 4 got tougher. Would have rather those teams stayed in the Big Cake walk.. They don't belong here anyway.

 

[aRmo]

We can only lose to Alabama and UGA to expect a chance to get in. If we beat Bama but lose to a 4-7 Florida team and get Blown out by UGA.. then no, we wont get in.

 

[volbound1700]

We can only lose to Alabama and UGA to expect a chance to get in. If we beat Bama but lose to a 4-7 Florida team and get Blown out by UGA.. then no, we wont get in.

If we lose to Oklahoma and Georgia but beat Alabama (which I think is very feasible), we can get in.

I think Florida will do better than 4-8 (they can't be 4-7 against 12-team schedule)

 

[aRmo]

If we lose to Oklahoma and Georgia but beat Alabama (which I think is very feasible), we can get in.

I think Florida will do better than 4-8 (they can't be 4-7 against 12-team schedule)

i didnt do math, i was just making a point. But yes, you are correct. I dont think we lose to OU. it will be a nail biter alot like the Texas A&M game last year.

 

[volbound1700]

i didnt do math, i was just making a point. But yes, you are correct. I dont think we lose to OU. it will be a nail biter alot like the Texas A&M game last year.

To me, Oklahoma could be "Florida" this year. Florida myth is just as much about them being the first SEC opponent as it is about them being Florida. We haven't played Florida very often later in the year but when Florida wasn't our first SEC opponent, we were undefeated against them.

First SEC game, on the road, and first game for OU will be daunting. Oklahoma won 10 games last year and has had top 10 recruiting classes every year under Venable. I think people are writing them off because of the poor bowl game performance.

 

[aRmo]

To me, Oklahoma could be "Florida" this year. Florida myth is just as much about them being the first SEC opponent as it is about them being Florida. We haven't played Florida very often later in the year but when Florida wasn't our first SEC opponent, we were undefeated against them.

First SEC game, on the road, and first game for OU will be daunting. Oklahoma won 10 games last year and has had top 10 recruiting classes every year under Venable. I think people are writing them off because of the poor bowl game performance.

No, i am aware that they have recruited well. I dont put much into bowl games due to opt outs and other factors. OU has to replace 5 starters along the offensive line. They are breaking in a new QB just like we are, and a new Offensive Coordinator. Their defense will be their strength. The difference will be how our Dline gets to their QB.

 

[SpookyAction]

One could also consider losing 3 games, and then winning the SECCG. (unlikely scenario)
I think would be an automatic bid

Then could go 10-2 and then lose the SECCG.
That would probably knock the team out.

I don't like one of the conference's best teams being punished for being second best for playing an extra high-level game.
Our Conference Championship games have a strong potential to cost the SEC a playoff spot by eliminating the second best team after the removal of divisions. It feels like the conference is likely to screw itself and a quality team over.
15-16 games per season is a lot of extra physical strain on athletes. I suspect conference championships will sooner or later be re-examined.

I think there will still be the same level of opt-outs in the Championship games and playoffs despite what most people expect. The basis of the players making that business decision will not change at all. Performing on the bigger stage is not a real incentive for someone who is already getting drafted.

 

[volbound1700]

No, i am aware that they have recruited well. I dont put much into bowl games due to opt outs and other factors. OU has to replace 5 starters along the offensive line. They are breaking in a new QB just like we are, and a new Offensive Coordinator. Their defense will be their strength. The difference will be how our Dline gets to their QB.

Their bowl game was a lot like our bowl game, it was a showcase of the 2025 versus 2024 team and they failed at it. Then again, we did the same thing in 2023 with Milton and he plus the new WRs looked great against Clemson but disappointed at times in 2023 (they weren't always bad).

 

[zjcvols]

I did some research for every full season since 2014 about 2 loss teams and how they would look in the new playoff format (no 2020, obvious reasons).

So there were 54 at large available spots. A Power 5 team (including Notre Dame) would have missed the playoffs ten times for a percentage of 18.5%. It happened 7 out of 9 years.

However...there is now no Pac-10 automatic bid anymore. Only 5 automatic bids occur. If you configure that (based on how the committee ranked the teams, the committee is fallible and human, so that could have changed things) then you are looking at only 7 teams would have missed for 63 available spots, which is 11.1%. Only one SEC team would have missed (2018 Alabama, which lost Tua for the year and was one spot behind Auburn in the committee's rankings). The other 6 teams were 2 Big Ten West teams, 3 Big 12 teams (two of those when the Big 12 didn't have a conference championship game) and Notre Dame one year.

So if Tennessee goes 10-2, there's basically a <95% chance based on past history they'll get in.