East Tennessee Weather II

#2,478
#2,478
rocktopper16 said:
Not likely, Laura will end up taking Marcos energy. Looks like a Cat4 will make landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast.
Click to expand...
Was relaying information from 11PM Friday news here in Tampa. One thing I've learned from living the last 10 years on the Gulf is that the storm forecasts change very quickly. Oh and to keep a bag packed just in case.
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc
#2,480
#2,480
tntar heel said:
Was relaying information from 11PM Friday news here in Tampa. One thing I've learned from living the last 10 years on the Gulf is that the storm forecasts change very quickly. Oh and to keep a bag packed just in case.
Click to expand...

Absolutely, there will be no accurate forecast with this. Laura’s path with be vindictive with Marcos. Models have a hard time with energy transfers. Will be interesting to see Monday night as it starts to unfold
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc and headhunter15
#2,481
#2,481
rocktopper16 said:
Absolutely, there will be no accurate forecast with this. Laura’s path with be vindictive with Marcos. Models have a hard time with energy transfers. Will be interesting to see Monday night as it starts to unfold
Click to expand...
The way it is setting up reminded me of the movie The Perfect Storm.
 
#2,483
#2,483
But, i don't want to speak too soon, or quit praying. The right side of the current cone still goes over Baton Rouge, and they say hurricanes stray out of the cones a third of the time. They say this will probably hit land as a strong 2 if not a 3, and LA hasn't had one that strong since Rita in 2005.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tntar heel
#2,484
#2,484
I'm sitting over here in Houston scratching my head, watching those westerly model runs this afternoon.....

The NHC has been locked on to the TX/LA border landfall (where the American model has it as well) for a while now even though the Euro and UKMet have been alternating between a Houston and a border landfall. They did suggest tonight that extending Hurricane watches further south along TX coast might be necessary if models confirm, so perhaps they are beginning to scratch their head too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc
#2,485
#2,485
orangebloodgmc said:
But, i don't want to speak too soon, or quit praying. The right side of the current cone still goes over Baton Rouge, and they say hurricanes stray out of the cones a third of the time. They say this will probably hit land as a strong 2 if not a 3, and LA hasn't had one that strong since Rita in 2005.
Click to expand...

I’m going mid Cat 4. Also, the right side of a hurricane is the most deadly.
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc
#2,490
#2,490
rocktopper16 said:
She handled the dry air pretty well. Still sticking with my census of a mid cat 4
Click to expand...

She came off Cuba and immediately started wrapping up. Either shear (still tilted with offsetting low-level and mid-level centers) or dry air are disrupting outflow to the north, though, which might keep us from seeing rapid intensification for a while longer.

But that is somewhat beyond the point. She wasn't forecast to undergo rapid intensification this early anyway - and she wasn't forecast to shore up her eye and make hurricane status this early either. But she has. So favorable enough conditions despite the shear/dry air to wrap up this morning...and increasingly favorable conditions to intensify later in the day and tomorrow.

There is no way I would rule out a Cat 4.

Will be interesting to see how the models verify here in a few hours and whether the NHC begins a more westerly movement in their landfall track if this morning's runs continue to trend that way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc
#2,491
#2,491
TennTradition said:
I'm sitting over here in Houston scratching my head, watching those westerly model runs this afternoon.....

The NHC has been locked on to the TX/LA border landfall (where the American model has it as well) for a while now even though the Euro and UKMet have been alternating between a Houston and a border landfall. They did suggest tonight that extending Hurricane watches further south along TX coast might be necessary if models confirm, so perhaps they are beginning to scratch their head too.
Click to expand...

I'm in Baytown.

We're in for a long week brother.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tntar heel, orangebloodgmc and TennTradition
#2,496
#2,496
It could end up a Cat 5.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurr...am-into-gulf-coast-as-category-3-storm/800521

"Forecasters expect Laura to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border as a Category 4 hurricane, but it could even reach Category 5 strength (wind speeds of 157 mph or greater) for a time as it moves over bath warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Whether or not the hurricane reaches Category 5 status may depend on if the eye undergoes structural changes. "

LauraSatellite1130-130.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: orangebloodgmc and headhunter15
#2,499
#2,499
Multiple tornadoes on the ground ahead of the eye right now along the coast of Louisiana East of Cameron.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top