East Tennessee Weather II

#4,052
#4,052
Hoping next week’s potential system isn’t terrible for people trying to celebrate Christmas. Either way, as RT said, it’s going to be brutally cold.
 
#4,053
#4,053
Latest GFS run is very interesting. 3 different chances of snow. A Looooong ways off, but we will have the cold air mass in place, and with cyclogenisus in the right place some folks will get dumped on.
 
#4,054
#4,054
While, we know not to take these model runs too seriously this would be great for some and horrrible for others.

Will this verify? Not likely. However, the potential is there and models have been show that the 7-9 range had one run that was correct.

The Euro still isn’t on board but I suspect it’s having the same issues as last year with catching up to what the GFS sees and it’s having a hard time with the blocking going on.

491CF28C-E0A3-4999-B4F7-07663F98C603.png
 
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#4,056
#4,056
Likely would be more snow as rates would be higher than 10:1 in near blizzard like conditions.

6 days out still though.
 
#4,058
#4,058
hUTch2002 said:
Those other models are basically showing nothing though. Which ones are most accurate?
Click to expand...

Everyone has their pick. No model this far out will be dead on. What we know is that there will be cold. What we don’t know is how much precip we have to work with and how fast it moves. The potential is there for a big winter storm but the potential is also there for some cold rain.


Myself though, I lean to the GFS this far out. It’s been more accurate than not with the Euro as of late. When we get to Saturday night around 18Z that’s when you want to start paying attention, models should have a pretty good idea on what’s going to happen and then we inch closer to the short model solutions.
 
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#4,059
#4,059
rocktopper16 said:
Everyone has their pick. No model this far out will be dead on. What we know is that there will be cold. What we don’t know is how much precip we have to work with and how fast it moves. The potential is there for a big winter storm but the potential is also there for some cold rain.


Myself though, I lean to the GFS this far out. It’s been more accurate than not with the Euro as of late. When we get to Saturday night around 18Z that’s when you want to start paying attention, models should have a pretty good idea on what’s going to happen and then we inch closer to the short model solutions.
Click to expand...
Looks like GFS has updated to much lower totals. Now it’s way more in line with the other systems.
 
#4,060
#4,060
I would wait until the major models converge on a solution before getting hopes up about snow. So far Canadian and Euro are both showing a dusting. Once those come into line with the GFS, now we're talking.

The only thing you can bet on right now is extremely cold temperatures.
 
#4,061
#4,061
Matt2496 said:
I would wait until the major models converge on a solution before getting hopes up about snow. So far Canadian and Euro are both showing a dusting. Once those come into line with the GFS, now we're talking.

The only thing you can bet on right now is extremely cold temperatures.
Click to expand...
GFS is down now too.
 
#4,063
#4,063
Matt2496 said:
I would wait until the major models converge on a solution before getting hopes up about snow. So far Canadian and Euro are both showing a dusting. Once those come into line with the GFS, now we're talking.

The only thing you can bet on right now is extremely cold temperatures.
Click to expand...

Watching that system in the dakotas right now and can only feel that that’s going to add to our cold if that snow lingers around.

Have you saw the suggested wind speeds and gust with this system with all 3 models? We may see the quickest drop from low 40s to the high teens in a matter of a hour.
 
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#4,065
#4,065
rocktopper16 said:
Watching that system in the dakotas right now and can only feel that that’s going to add to our cold if that snow lingers around.

Have you saw the suggested wind speeds and gust with this system with all 3 models? We may see the quickest drop from low 40s to the high teens in a matter of a hour.
Click to expand...
Yep. There is a crazy temperature gradient on this system.
 
#4,071
#4,071
Seems as if the icon is on board with the GFS solution too & the overnight runs are back on track.
 
#4,072
#4,072
What we are confident of during this time frame: 1) extremely cold air mass building into the area Thursday night and remaining through Saturday; 2) A transition from rain to snow late Thursday or Thursday night; 3) Some amount of snow accumulation Thursday night into Friday. In terms of impacts, the snow amounts may not be very important, because even light snow amounts could cause travel problems due to the frigid air that will create icy conditions on roads. Highs on Friday will only be in the lower to mid 20s, with lows Friday and Saturday morning in the 6-12 range (went a few degrees
-NWS
 
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#4,073
#4,073
Latest GFS has drastically reduced totals for the valley. It's far from over though because models tend to flip-flop like this. Haven't lost hope yet.
 
#4,074
#4,074
Matt2496 said:
Latest GFS has drastically reduced totals for the valley. It's far from over though because models tend to flip-flop like this. Haven't lost hope yet.
Click to expand...

That and I really don’t think they are handing how strong this front is.
 
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