East Tennessee Weather II

[headhunter15]

How are we feeling on the potential for winter weather next week?

 

[rocktopper16]

How are we feeling on the potential for winter weather next week?

Not confident on seeing it stick atm. A long way to go though!

 

[rocktopper16]

That's the shift I was waiting for on the latest GFS. More than likely will see snow but no accumulation for most areas.

 

[rocktopper16]

Can change though. Classic case of the coldchasing the storm.

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

We're expecting light snow overnight here in Central Indiana......seems like just a few weeks ago I was mowing my lawn and it was 80 degrees......oh wait, it was just a couple weeks ago

 

[rocktopper16]

We're expecting light snow overnight here in Central Indiana......seems like just a few weeks ago I was mowing my lawn and it was 80 degrees......oh wait, it was just a couple weeks ago

You'll have a couple more shots of snow this month too.

Again, the GFS has shifted. Thus one will be a doozyto forecast. Timing is what'll make or break it.

 

[rocktopper16]

And winter will show it's ugly face starting Friday night lasting most of next week.

 

[rocktopper16]

Looks like the cold air won't be around for the rain Tuesday but Wenseday night is setting up nicely for some areas. Possibility of seeing a lot of Freezing rain in Western N.C. and Northern most part of GA. Areas around Blue ridge.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

33 and rain tonight. Typical Piedmont NC. It’s snowing in Asheboro for freaks sake.

 

[volmanbill]

Cold front coming through Tampa. Highs in the 60's tomorrow. BRRR!

 

[Vol knight]

Today is the first day of the meteorological winter season. I'm going to post my winter weather outlook for this winter in an hour or so. In the meantime, the following are the snow predictions from the 3 local news stations in East TN.

~WBIR~

Valley: 5-9 inches
Plateau: 10-15 inches
Mountains (lower elevations such as Gatlinburg): 15-20 inches

~WATE~

Valley: 7-10 inches
Plateau: 10-15 inches
Mountains (Higher elevations): 60-80+ inches

~WVLT~

Valley: 7-11 inches
Plateau: 14-18 inches
Mountains (Higher elevations): 44-88 inches
Gatlinburg and other low elevations in the Mountains: 10-14 inches.

Side note: Knoxville and vicinity average snowfall is 6.5 inches. Plateau region is about 11.5 inches.

Another side note: Ken Weathers from WATE also mentioned that we could see more freezing rain/icy weather this winter.

 

[Vol knight]

I was going to do a detailed outlook, but I think I'll just post my snowfall prediction.

Valley: 6-9 inches
Plateau: 11-15 inches
Mountains at or below 2000 feet: 11-15 inches
Mountains above 2000 feet: 20-80 inches (the higher the elevation, the higher the total)

 

[headhunter15]

VK: Any thoughts on the potential weather for next weekend here in EastTN?

 

[Vol knight]

VK: Any thoughts on the potential weather for next weekend here in EastTN?

Keeping an eye on it. I'll have more thoughts as we get closer to that time period.

 

[rocktopper16]

Keeping an eye on it. I'll have more thoughts as we get closer to that time period.

January into February is gonna be fantastic for snow lovers.

 

[rocktopper16]

Doubtful to happen. But I haven't seen totals like that in our area for awhile.

Don't take this as a forecast but you can see the split flow out of Cali now. Split flows usually bring good snow or ice to our area.

I work long shifts now and I won't be able to forecast or update as much. Storm would be something to monitor.

 

[rocktopper16]

Doubtful to happen. But I haven't seen totals like that in our area for awhile.

Don't take this as a forecast but you can see the split flow out of Cali now. Split flows usually bring good snow or ice to our area.

I work long shifts now and I won't be able to forecast or update as much. Storm would be something to monitor.
View attachment 179454

 

[rocktopper16]

Each run showing shifts but holding steady with totals. Doubful to receive that much but something still to monitor

 

[Vol knight]

Just for fun, here's the 6z run of the new GFS model.

 

[rocktopper16]

VK. I'm starting to shift my focus into more of a major ice event. Defiantly something to monitor. The split flow is outstanding. Tennessee, North Alabama , North GA & the Carolinas may get hammered.

 

[rocktopper16]

12z run.

 

[Vol knight]

VK. I'm starting to shift my focus into more of a major ice event. Defiantly something to monitor. The split flow is outstanding. Tennessee, North Alabama , North GA & the Carolinas may get hammered.

I'm waiting until Wednesday to start talking about any kind of specifics. Need to see if the models continue to show this storm over the next couple of days

 

[Vol knight]

Something else to keep in mind. We need to be careful about relying too much on the new GFS model.

1. Snowfall totals include sleet accumulations on this model.

2. It's still a work in progress model.

 

[rocktopper16]

Yep. I see more sleet than snow. But as you said. Two - three days until we actually can focus on it.

 

[Vol knight]

WOW at the 12z Euro run. Anyone ready to go back to 93?