East Tennessee Weather II

#1,659
#1,659
Now that it is Saturday and the system is still on the models 3 days out, I'll start talking about it. To start off, here's a special weather statement from Morristown. Note that this is only their current thinking.

...Snowfall Possible Area-wide Late Monday Night and Tuesday...
...Arctic Cold Front Passage Tuesday will Usher in Very Cold Temperatures for mid-week next Week...
An arctic cold front will move across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians late Monday night and Tuesday bringing with it widespread precipitation. The precipitation will likely begin as a mixture of rain and snow but quickly transition to all snow Tuesday morning.
Snow accumulations around 2 inches is currently expected but up to 4 inches are possible across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. Snow and ice covered roadways are possible Tuesday producing difficult travel conditions.
Besides the snow, a very cold airmass will move into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians Tuesday through Thursday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night will drop into the single digits to middle teens most locations. Dangerous wind chills from 5 to 15 degrees below zero over the higher terrain to 5 below to 5 above zero elsewhere.
Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for further details or updates.
Click to expand...
 
#1,660
#1,660
Vol knight said:
Now that it is Saturday and the system is still on the models 3 days out, I'll start talking about it. To start off, here's a special weather statement from Morristown. Note that this is only their current thinking.
Click to expand...
I'm liking this system.

We already have cold in place.

The ground is already cold.

A new blast of cold is coming with it.

And as of now, there's plenty of moisture coming with it.
 
#1,663
#1,663
There was a system like this last year or a couple years ago that had surprise snow amounts. There's a small chance for that to occur. There are higher QPF showing up in East Tennessee and either South and east. There's a weaking low off texas that may try to transfer energy. It's a big if but there's hints of it.
 
#1,664
#1,664
I know I said I'd talk more about this system, but there's still a lot of factors that is making it hard to come up with any educated guesses.
 
#1,666
#1,666
TennesseeFan07 said:
Likelihood, or educated guess of it being a significant snow event?
Click to expand...
I mean guessing on snow amounts. I dont think the question is will we see snow. Right now, I'd lean towards 1-3 for East TN (maybe 4+ in the higher elevations). Timing and snow amounts are still in flux, so hopefully we'll start to get somewhat of a better picture by Monday.
 
#1,673
#1,673
We're under a SWS:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
550 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-272100-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson,
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville,
Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg,
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta,
Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville,
Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg,
and Pulaski
550 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

...Accumulating Snowfall Possible Monday Night Into Tuesday
Afternoon Across Middle Tennessee...
...Coldest Temperatures of Winter Season Expected Tuesday and
Wednesday Nights...

A strong cold front will move through Middle Tennessee Monday
night, ushering in a much colder air mass behind its passage
across the mid state region. Initial rain showers Monday evening
will transition to a rain/snow shower mix late evening through
early overnight hours, before transitioning to all snow showers
as the overnight hours progress across mid state.

Initially, it looks like just over a half of an inch of snowfall
accumulation is expected to occur across northwestern portions of
the mid state region, one to two inches central portions, with
two to three inches possible for locations approaching and across
the Cumberland Plateau Region. This may result in hazardous travel
conditions across the mid state. A winter weather advisory for
portions of Middle Tennessee may be issued later today if
forecasted snowfall amounts continue to be expected.

Behind this strong cold frontal passage, artic air will move into
the mid state region. This will likely result in the coldest
temperatures this winter season, especially for Tuesday and
Wednesday Nights. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be below
freezing for the entire mid state. Afternoon highs on Wednesday
will continue to be mainly below freezing. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the teens with wind chills in some locations in the
single digits. Lows Wednesday night will be in the single digits
to lower teens for locations near the Tennessee, Alabama border.
Wind chill values Wednesday night will be in the single digits,
and for some locations around and east of I-65, wind chills will
be around zero, or even a few degrees below zero, especially
across the Cumberland Plateau Region. The duration of these cold
temperatures may pose hazards to exposed plumbing, elderly,
homeless, pets, and those working outdoors.

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for
further details or updates.
 
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#1,674
#1,674
Update! A Winter Storm watch has now been issued for East Tennessee.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019


NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280900-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.190129T0900Z-190130T0000Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Murphy, Hayesville, Oneida, La Follette,
Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville, Kingsport, Bristol,
Mountain City, Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge, Maynardville,
Rutledge, Morristown, Newport, Cosby, Greeneville, Cedar Creek,
Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Kingston,
Lenoir City, Knoxville, Dandridge, Maryville, Cades Cove,
Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Dunlap, Pikeville, Dayton, Decatur,
Athens, Madisonville, Coker Creek, Jasper, Chattanooga,
Cleveland, Benton, Ducktown, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City,
Lebanon, and Abingdon
311 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 /211 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher amounts of 5 inches in the higher
terrain possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and
Southwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel
could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact
the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
 
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#1,675
#1,675
Matt2496 said:
Update! A Winter Storm watch has now been issued for East Tennessee.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019


NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-280900-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.190129T0900Z-190130T0000Z/
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Murphy, Hayesville, Oneida, La Follette,
Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville, Kingsport, Bristol,
Mountain City, Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge, Maynardville,
Rutledge, Morristown, Newport, Cosby, Greeneville, Cedar Creek,
Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Kingston,
Lenoir City, Knoxville, Dandridge, Maryville, Cades Cove,
Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Dunlap, Pikeville, Dayton, Decatur,
Athens, Madisonville, Coker Creek, Jasper, Chattanooga,
Cleveland, Benton, Ducktown, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City,
Lebanon, and Abingdon
311 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 /211 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher amounts of 5 inches in the higher
terrain possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and
Southwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel
could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact
the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
Click to expand...
 
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