Game Thread: Lady Vols at No. 4/3 LSU; 7PM; ESPN2

[Coach Jumper]

THANK YOU! I knew it! I knew there was an analytical out there bc it's not just Kellie and Rick, lots of coaches don't call t.o. to stop runs nowadays. It's almost not cool among top coaches.

I'm disappointed in Cora. Did she ask Kellie about it? Like at the presser last night? Has she ever asked? I mean we figured it out, couldn't she? How do you write that call out piece without simply asking why?

That said, I thought KJH might have used a t.o. late just to give Rickea and the Jordans a little breather. All were 30+ mins and pressing at that point.

Totally agree, the problem is sub patterns. She's always frustrated us with lineups and subs we didn't understand. This year, with the full roster, the problem has been on steroids.

Thanks for your research! If you really like whistling in the dark we could talk about trap games again . .

Kim Trumpkey did it twice and well,,,you know

 

[LV renaissance]

In regard to the Cora article, yep it is the magical time out theory once again.

I have done a little digging and as is so often the case, the analytics suggest something quite dfferent from the conventional wisdom. Here is an analysis of timeouts and runs in the NBA, where the statistical conclusion is:



Now, I am sure many posters will say "this study is obviously wrong because I can remember a time when a coach called a timeout and it broke a run!!!."


Of course you do but you are not recalling the many other times where it had no effect or things got worse for the TO taking team. That memory bias is called selective recall. Analytics is not prone to such memory biases. The same reason why football coaches now go for it on 4th much more often than they used is the same reason more and more coaches are following the Phil Jackson approach of letting teams play through runs.

It turns out that substitutions and changing matchups is the more effective response to a run. And here is where perceptions can get conflated. Often when a coach calls a TO, they make line-up changes and that substitution is the critical factor not the timeout (and analytics can control for those two factors, subs and the TO, and tease out their relative effects).

So, the relevant criticism of Kellie is not her failure to call TOs but her substitution patterns, which have been a recurrent point of debate on this board all season.

I know the "magic timeout theory" will never die but sometimes I like shouting into the wind.

I typically enjoy your comments, but this conclusion is totally unfounded. It is interesting and surprising results that were based on a couple of male pro teams. There is no way to know if this generalizes to players much younger, more inexperienced, female players, and college teams. Many a coach has commented how different it is to coach pros than college kids. Their role is quite different in that college kids are still needing more guidance and emotional reassurance. Also, many of our player have never or rarely have played in an arena like the PMAC was last night. which is completely not the case for pro players. I do agree with substitution patterns are more problematic with this team than the time-out pattern.

 

[Mr.Vol2U]

Key wouldn’t have made a difference, do u think she can guard Angel Reese? We don’t believe in moral victories, and I never go into a game thinking they will lose.

She definitely could have guarded Reese and he'll probably would have shut her down for most of the game. You even stating that Key wouldn't have made a difference is quite astonishing. Key throughout her Tennessee career has known to shut down other post players or limit them at best. She is Tennessee all time block leader in really only 3 seasons, she alters the opponents shots a lot, she has length, and if couldn't rebound the ball she would at least keep the ball alive and in play. So yes she would have made a big difference in the LSU, UConn, and Stanford game.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

The reason they shot better was their screening action ....the Gal who scored 31 had screens on every shot that she made....we do not know how to fight thru screens on defense or defense screens and conversely on offense we do not screen for our best shooters hence one-on -one basketball is played on the offensive end.

Correct.

 

[lvocd]

All I know is that back in my playing days I found opponents' scoring runs to be both mentally and physically exhausting, and so time outs were welcomed so I could catch my breath, rest my legs, and get some encouragement from the coach. I needed someone to get me back on track mentally, and I needed to know that my coach remembered that I had breathing issues and might need 30 seconds to recuperate.

Time outs certainly helped me.

 

[Rons1989]

She definitely could have guarded Reese and he'll probably would have shut her down for most of the game. You even stating that Key wouldn't have made a difference is quite astonishing. Key throughout her Tennessee career has known to shut down other post players or limit them at best. She is Tennessee all time block leader in really only 3 seasons, she alters the opponents shots a lot, she has length, and if couldn't rebound the ball she would at least keep the ball alive and in play. So yes she would have made a big difference in the LSU, UConn, and Stanford game.

Absolutely agree key wouldve most def helped in this game for the fact reese does alot of damage in the paint also that stanford game she wouldve helped uconn wouldve been tricky for the simple fact dorka n edwards can shoot from the perimeter

 

[madtownvol]

THANK YOU! I knew it! I knew there was an analytical out there bc it's not just Kellie and Rick, lots of coaches don't call t.o. to stop runs nowadays. It's almost not cool among top coaches.

I'm disappointed in Cora. Did she ask Kellie about it? Like at the presser last night? Has she ever asked? I mean we figured it out, couldn't she? How do you write that call out piece without simply asking why?

That said, I thought KJH might have used a t.o. late just to give Rickea and the Jordans a little breather. All were 30+ mins and pressing at that point.

Totally agree, the problem is sub patterns. She's always frustrated us with lineups and subs we didn't understand. This year, with the full roster, the problem has been on steroids.

Thanks for your research! If you really like whistling in the dark we could talk about trap games again . .

Per Cora, why ask when you can write a hatchet job article for clicks? But she too also seems to be suffering from selective recall,. The LVs came back from two earlier runs where they cut a double digit lead to 2 or 4 (without a TO). So, to me the question should not be why did Kellie not take a timeout but why couldn''t the LVs execute at critical moments to actually take the lead? (which would have cleared a big psychological hurdle) and, second, why did they keep losing contact, not once, not twice, but three times? Playing from behind is playing with fire and you are eventually going to get burned.

I am reading my recent posts and I am slowly turning into a negavol (I knew that condition was contagious!). But, I have taken a double dose of my optimism pills and I believe that Kellie is smart, can be adaptable and (hopefully) has survival instincts. If I were her life coach, I would say, "Kellie, time for you to help Jon find a job as a high school coach in the area. Great guy, super dad, but he is not bringing enough to the party. Find yourself, a younger, ambitious, offensive minded assistant coach, perhaps a protege of McGraw or Tara Van de Veer, and fix these offensive problems.

 

[T_Vol376]

You know Maria asked her why the players looked like they had their feet stuck in the mud on defense and she looked shocked a minute and then said she had no idea. That is the toughest question I heard a reporter ask her this year.

And I can’t believe it came from Maria!

 

[volnationnj]

In the 4th quarter, TN made 3 of 4 free throws, LSU made 12 of 16 free throws. LSU still got double the calls not counting the ending seconds, totally different from the first half where we attempted 4 free throws, and LSU attempted 6.

"LSU still got double the calls not counting the ending seconds".
In the first half the ratio was 4 free throws for UT and 6 for LSU. In the 4th quarter, not counting the final seconds, UT attempted 4 free throws and LSU 8 free throws.
A difference, yes. But not totally different ratio.

 

[Volfaninfl2]

"LSU still got double the calls not counting the ending seconds".
In the first half the ratio was 4 free throws for UT and 6 for LSU. In the 4th quarter, not counting the final seconds, UT attempted 4 free throws and LSU 8 free throws.
A difference, yes. But not totally different ratio.

Women's Basketball vs LSU on 1/30/2023 - Box Score - University of Tennessee Athletics

In both quarters of the second half, LSU shot twice as many or more free throws as TN.

FREE THROWS:

TN
1. 0-2
2. 1-2
3. 2-4
4. 3-4

LSU
1. 1-2
2. 4-4
3. 6-9
4. 12-16

 

[glv98]

If I were her life coach, I would say, "Kellie, time for you to help Jon find a job as a high school coach in the area. Great guy, super dad, but he is not bringing enough to the party. Find yourself, a younger, ambitious, offensive minded assistant coach, perhaps a protege of McGraw or Tara Van de Veer, and fix these offensive problems.

We don't need better coaches to fix our offense, we need better players. And Jon is out of eligibility. Why Jon and not Joy? What does she bring? Don't get me wrong, I like both of them ok. But I think Jon is definitely getting some anti-hubby displaced anger around here right now. I don't think he'd get the singling out amongst problems if not for being the hubby.

Remember how much better our offense was a few games ago when the opposition was easier? Assists went up, turnovers went down. It's about to happen again. The problem is we don't have enough players, esp point guards, who can execute a movement O against good teams. The problem isn't knowing what to do, it's actually doing it.

 

[Coach Jumper]

In regard to the Cora article, yep it is the magical time out theory once again.

I have done a little digging and as is so often the case, the analytics suggest something quite dfferent from the conventional wisdom. Here is an analysis of timeouts and runs in the NBA, where the statistical conclusion is:



Now, I am sure many posters will say "this study is obviously wrong because I can remember a time when a coach called a timeout and it broke a run!!!."


Of course you do but you are not recalling the many other times where it had no effect or things got worse for the TO taking team. That memory bias is called selective recall. Analytics is not prone to such memory biases. The same reason why football coaches now go for it on 4th much more often than they used is the same reason more and more coaches are following the Phil Jackson approach of letting teams play through runs.

It turns out that substitutions and changing matchups is the more effective response to a run. And here is where perceptions can get conflated. Often when a coach calls a TO, they make line-up changes and that substitution is the critical factor not the timeout (and analytics can control for those two factors, subs and the TO, and tease out their relative effects).

So, the relevant criticism of Kellie is not her failure to call TOs but her substitution patterns, which have been a recurrent point of debate on this board all season.

I know the "magic timeout theory" will never die but sometimes I like shouting into the wind.

can you give references, articles, proof of what you are calling facts?

 

[madtownvol]

can you give references, articles, proof of what you are calling facts?

The hotlink to the source article was in the original post.

 

[Coach Jumper]

The hotlink to the source article was in the original post.

Doesn't matter. I want someone who is a professional in the game and who is involved in the game... not a Couple of novice nerds who are seeking to be published

 

[madtownvol]

Doesn't matter. I want someone who is a professional in the game and who is involved in the game... not a Couple of novice nerds who are seeking to be published

Now, that statement nicely illustrates the concept of "moving the goal posts." Good job mate!

 

[creekdipper]

Interrupting the conversation (since there's no Ole Miss game thread yet) to say that I'm disappointed that the OleMiss game will just be streaming whereas the Auburn game later in the season will be televised.

 

[UTtoDC]

In regard to the Cora article, yep it is the magical time out theory once again.

I have done a little digging and as is so often the case, the analytics suggest something quite dfferent from the conventional wisdom. Here is an analysis of timeouts and runs in the NBA, where the statistical conclusion is:



Now, I am sure many posters will say "this study is obviously wrong because I can remember a time when a coach called a timeout and it broke a run!!!."


Of course you do but you are not recalling the many other times where it had no effect or things got worse for the TO taking team. That memory bias is called selective recall. Analytics is not prone to such memory biases. The same reason why football coaches now go for it on 4th much more often than they used is the same reason more and more coaches are following the Phil Jackson approach of letting teams play through runs.

It turns out that substitutions and changing matchups is the more effective response to a run. And here is where perceptions can get conflated. Often when a coach calls a TO, they make line-up changes and that substitution is the critical factor not the timeout (and analytics can control for those two factors, subs and the TO, and tease out their relative effects).

So, the relevant criticism of Kellie is not her failure to call TOs but her substitution patterns, which have been a recurrent point of debate on this board all season.

I know the "magic timeout theory" will never die but sometimes I like shouting into the wind.

Thanks for your post. I really appreciate your perspective here. I’ve actually never criticized Kellie’s timeout usage because I’ve been aware of these stats and her general philosophy being based on this. Also, I’ve watched most games this season and can recall instances when an opposing team started a run and we were able to stop it without a timeout (e.g., a made three, a Rickea plus one).

However, my major issue with the LSU game is that TN had already weathered two BIG LSU runs in quarters one and three when the game got above a 10 point margin. Kellie’s time out philosophy was what it was then. However, I do not see how you can expect a team to weather a third big push in the fourth quarter and have a reasonable expectation that they could come back down +10 with five minutes to go in a hostile environment.

This is the same stubborn coaching strategies that have also aided in the, let’s say unusual, substitution patterns that people have complained about all season. A coach needs to be able to step away from their own philosophies for a specific game, and a specific instance, that may be the exception. I truly believe the LSU game should have been an exception to Kellie’s timeout philosophy in the fourth quarter to keep Tennessee in the game.

 

[creekdipper]

We can note that Kellie did start both Jordy and Rickea against LSU (a change which should have received more attention from those who have been clamoring about it for months). That demonstrates that Kellie is not so "stubborn" that she refuses to make needed changes since it appeared to be a strategy change rather than one necessitated by injury or other factors.

In other words, given a similar future situation, we may see a different tine out strategy employed.

 

[UTtoDC]

We can note that Kellie did start both Jordy and Rickea against LSU (a change which should have received more attention from those who have been clamoring about it for months). That demonstrates that Kellie is not so "stubborn" that she refuses to make needed changes since it appeared to be a strategy change rather than one necessitated by injury or other factors.

In other words, given a similar future situation, we may see a different tine out strategy employed.

Totally agree with this! I actually posted about this as soon as I saw the starting lineup!

I was a little discouraged to hear that it seemed to be due to a Sara Puckett practice injury (ankle) as opposed to a needed change in the starting lineup. The fact that Striplin stayed in the lineup seemed to possibly confirm it was due to the injury as opposed to a true change.

The next game will be the tell all though. Do Jordan and Rickea stay in the lineup? Does Hollingshed place Striplin?

 

[mudcat1973]

home cooking never gets. or unconn cooking on rockey top stove and oven. tenn can not fair shake at home sometimes much less home cooking just the facts. @volnationnj @Volfaninfl2 two cents on foul shots and refs dislike of vols in games they make hard on them. women basketball need to grade refs like nfl better refs get playoff games deeper in players best refs get ref.

 

[turbovol]

Per Cora, why ask when you can write a hatchet job article for clicks? But she too also seems to be suffering from selective recall,. The LVs came back from two earlier runs where they cut a double digit lead to 2 or 4 (without a TO). So, to me the question should not be why did Kellie not take a timeout but why couldn''t the LVs execute at critical moments to actually take the lead? (which would have cleared a big psychological hurdle) and, second, why did they keep losing contact, not once, not twice, but three times? Playing from behind is playing with fire and you are eventually going to get burned.

I am reading my recent posts and I am slowly turning into a negavol (I knew that condition was contagious!). But, I have taken a double dose of my optimism pills and I believe that Kellie is smart, can be adaptable and (hopefully) has survival instincts. If I were her life coach, I would say, "Kellie, time for you to help Jon find a job as a high school coach in the area. Great guy, super dad, but he is not bringing enough to the party. Find yourself, a younger, ambitious, offensive minded assistant coach, perhaps a protege of McGraw or Tara Van de Veer, and fix these offensive problems.

I /don't/ like wife and husband coaching tandems--and said so when Harper was hired. I wouldn't have hired her for that (and other) reasons. Sometimes they work out--it did in softball for us until age became an issue--and it has worked for a few other programs in various sports, at various schools. But generally it's a bad idea for the very reason that if things are going badly, and changes are needed, the coach is not going to fire his/her spouse. It's a conflict of interest--and that's precisely why these coaching couples should be avoided.

I don't know what responsibilities Jon or any of our assistants have. What IS clear is that we have problems across the board--offensive problems, defensive problems, recruiting problems, in-game tactical problems Is the husband more of a liability than anybody else on the staff--including Harper herself? I doubt Harper would react very well to White telling her to sack her husband. Even if she did, would it help? My bet would be, not enough. The buck stops at the top.

We have a big program (though it's been getting smaller by the year). Big programs with big traditions demand experienced winners as coaches---not inexperienced assistants or mid-major coaches with limited achievements. We were parochial with the Warlick hire; it was a disaster, and then we did it again.

Smart, talented assistants can help--no doubt about it. But it's problematic with our situation. Harper would not want to fire her husband, obviously. And if she were to sack one or more of her other assistants, then she's created a real conflict of interest and perception problem. It's not a good situation and I suspect that if anyone is let go, it will start at the top.

 

[Majors]

We can note that Kellie did start both Jordy and Rickea against LSU (a change which should have received more attention from those who have been clamoring about it for months). That demonstrates that Kellie is not so "stubborn" that she refuses to make needed changes since it appeared to be a strategy change rather than one necessitated by injury or other factors.

In other words, given a similar future situation, we may see a different tine out strategy employed.

Or the harder part of the schedule is here. Easy to sit RJ when you play the bottom dwellers and bring her in the first few minutes.

 

[lvocd]

The next game will be the tell all though. Do Jordan and Rickea stay in the lineup? Does Hollingshed place Striplin?

I’d like to see Kellie try starting Jordy at point, Rickea, Tess to be our 3-pt threat, Hollingshead at high post because she can post up AND hit outside shots, and tough, smart Jas Franklin at low post for her outstanding defense.

Once the knee of Franklin needs a rest, bring in Striplin for a few minutes. Depending on how Tess is shooting, I may or may not also sub in Puckett for her when Franklin gets her rest.

I would use this group of 5 to 7 players for the entire first quarter if I could, but if either Horston or Rickea were to get two early fouls I’d sub in Walker for one of them.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Thanks for your post. I really appreciate your perspective here. I’ve actually never criticized Kellie’s timeout usage because I’ve been aware of these stats and her general philosophy being based on this. Also, I’ve watched most games this season and can recall instances when an opposing team started a run and we were able to stop it without a timeout (e.g., a made three, a Rickea plus one).

However, my major issue with the LSU game is that TN had already weathered two BIG LSU runs in quarters one and three when the game got above a 10 point margin. Kellie’s time out philosophy was what it was then. However, I do not see how you can expect a team to weather a third big push in the fourth quarter and have a reasonable expectation that they could come back down +10 with five minutes to go in a hostile environment.

This is the same stubborn coaching strategies that have also aided in the, let’s say unusual, substitution patterns that people have complained about all season. A coach needs to be able to step away from their own philosophies for a specific game, and a specific instance, that may be the exception. I truly believe the LSU game should have been an exception to Kellie’s timeout philosophy in the fourth quarter to keep Tennessee in the game.

Yes, yes, yes to this. That 11 pt run in the 4th qtr was a big psychological factor for both teams. It energized LSU and the big crowed and deflated LV's. And as you stated above it raised the lead to double digits in the 4th qtr when you don't have the luxury of cutting back the lead one possession at a time. It can lead to some panic. And an earlier time out when the lead was only 5-6 pts would have helped rather than wait until it got to 11.

While your analytics are impressive on paper Madtown, they do not take into account the mental and psychological aspects of the game. And as another poster stated, your results were based on professional mens players who are not as emotionally effected as college players, especially the younger ones. Good try though.

 

[Coach Jumper]

Now, that statement nicely illustrates the concept of "moving the goal posts." Good job mate!

yawn