Gas Prices Pass Record

#52
#52
Has inflation soared that much since Katrina? Add in all of the other conditions such as market and natural disasters?
 
#53
#53
you need to adjust your historical aspect. I'm referring to gas prices during the embargo of the 70's.
 
#54
#54
No you do. I mentioned a record from Katrina. I'm speaking of the present and the very recent past...one most of us can better remember.
 
#55
#55
It seems once again there needs to be a distinction made between futures trading and events on the ground. The price is being driven up by concerns that inventories will be lower than needed.

For example, last summer we had a run-up partially based on the hurricane forecast. The fact that those hurricanes didn't occur took a while to filter back into the pricing structure.
 
#57
#57
Is it a record? Depends on who you ask and how you calculate.

AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report pegged the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline at $3.035 Monday. That's up almost 11% from a month ago, but short of the record $3.057 seen on Sept. 5, 2005. See the data.
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"The survey reported that gasoline prices shattered the record for the all-time high, hitting the not-adjusted-for-inflation high of a painful $3.07 a gallon for self-serve regular."
The previous high was from August of last year at $3.03, he said.
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Assuming inflation was more than 1%, we don't have an inflation adjusted high.
 
#58
#58
Some additional info on how gasoline futures impact gasoline prices.

ARTICLE: Pin painful pump prices on gasoline futures (The Virginian-Pilot - HamptonRoads.com/PilotOnline.com)

Interesting ---

To consumers, the pump price always seems to rise in response to market rates faster than it falls. Studies show that is sometimes true, but the difference is slight, McIntyre said.
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"It's quicker on the way up," Schenker agreed. "Prices tend to be a bit stickier, sometimes, on the way down."

During the past three months, the most significant weekly drop in the futures price of gasoline took place during the first week of January, when it fell about 7 percent. A week later in Hampton Roads, the average price per gallon had inched down just 1.8 percent. After four weeks, though, it had dropped 10 percent.
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#59
#59
I think the distinction is already known. No further explanation was needed. Prices are also influenced by the fact that reserves at refineries are short due to the upcoming switchover of fuels to be used during the summer months. It seems that environmental regulations, controlled by the government, also have a huge influence on the pricing fluctuations we see.
 
#60
#60
CSpindizzy said:
I think the distinction is already known. No further explanation was needed. Prices are also influenced by the fact that reserves at refineries are short due to the upcoming switchover of fuels to be used during the summer months. It seems that environmental regulations, controlled by the government, also have a huge influence on the pricing fluctuations we see.
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Actually, the regulations have an impact on pricing changes but not the volatility of pricing changes. Futures traders factor in the known impact of existing regulatory changes - it is the unexpected events (in this case refinery shutdowns) that create the volatility. Without the unexpected events, pricing changes be orderly - the fluctuations we see now are not primarily influenced by regulation (at least in the futures market).

But that didn't need to be explained either.
 
#61
#61
Not sure what you're arguing but you clearly missed what I was referring to. The shutdowns are expected. Almost every shutdown of a refinery is planned months ahead and the ones known for the switchover in fuel types is planned years ahead. So again, what is your point? This 'volatility' was known well ahead of time.
 
#62
#62
CSpindizzy said:
The shutdowns are expected. Almost every shutdown of a refinery is planned months ahead and the ones known for the switchover in fuel types is planned years ahead. So again, what is your point? This 'volatility' was known well ahead of time.
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My mistake was actually reading the article(s):

Unexpected refinery problems are a big part of the reason for the spike in gasoline prices of recent weeks.There have been at least a dozen additional partial shutdowns in the U.S. and internationally that cut refining capacity.

For instance, one of the nation's largest refineries, a BP PLC plant in Indiana that processes more than 400,000 barrels of oil per day, will not be operating at full capacity for several months due to unexpected repairs. Other examples include a 170,000-barrel-per-day plant in McKee, Texas, that was shut down for a month, and a 470,000 barrel-per-day plant in Texas City operating at less than half of capacity.
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:thumbsup:
 
#63
#63
One refinery with unexpected repairs? You commented on my environmental regulation and fuel switchovers being the unexpected and 'volatile' but now you're running to the article? Which is it? It's hard to respond to someone who dances like their avatar.
 
#64
#64
CSpindizzy said:
One refinery with unexpected repairs? You commented on my environmental regulation and fuel switchovers being the unexpected and 'volatile' but now you're running to the article? Which is it? It's hard to respond to someone who dances like their avatar.
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Regulation and fuel switchovers impact refining capacity and affect the absolute price of gasoline. Since these are "known" events, they are factored into the futures prices - futures prices rise predictably in the summer in part due to these two factors.

The fluctuations we are discussing in this thread are above and beyond those factors - the primary cause for the spike (this current fluctuation) is not regulation or switchover, it is beyond that.

I haven't changed my position once in this discussion. I cite the article for 2 reasons: 1) it clearly states what I've asserted all along - this fluctuation (the rapid run-up in prices) is primarily due to "unexpected" problems at refineries - it cites multiple examples. 2) you contend that the refinery problems are expected - the article (and many more like it) say otherwise.
 
#65
#65
volinbham said:
2) you contend that the refinery problems are expected - the article (and many more like it) say otherwise.
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Actually the article said parts issues at refineries are unexpected. It used one example at one refinery. And to clarify your misconception of what I said, I spoke on the regulation aspects of refineries having to switchover fuel types and thus refineries shutting down for that. You even mentioned that but now are referring to one line in the article that neither of us were referring to earlier.

So it helps to stay in context with what YOU were even discussing. You keep attributing something to me I never said but that is quite expected. But please feel free to show me where the aspects of the refineries on switching fuel types is UNEXPECTED and I will see your point.
 
#66
#66
volinbham said:
1) it clearly states what I've asserted all along - this fluctuation (the rapid run-up in prices) is primarily due to "unexpected" problems at refineries - it cites multiple examples.
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Primarily? Show me more examples of this recent run up being attributed primarily to scattered parts issues. Or better yet do a Google search for MTBE and you will see THAT being the primary reason the run up exists. A quick glance in my own search shows at least a dozen stories are spotted immediately.
 
#67
#67
CSpindizzy said:
Primarily? Show me more examples of this recent run up being attributed primarily to scattered parts issues. Or better yet do a Google search for MTBE and you will see THAT being the primary reason the run up exists. A quick glance in my own search shows at least a dozen stories are spotted immediately.
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Did you find any that say MTBE is the problem this summer? It was being phased out last summer and had a big impact then...
 
#68
#68
Yes. But additives and changing to a different type of fuel is the same. Replace MTBE with what is used now and you get the same thing...expected changeovers before summer. Feel free to go to the Energy Information Administration of the DoE for further information.
 
#69
#69
One more time:

Just two weeks ago, the U.S. average for a gallon of regular gas was $2.87, but the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 stations nationwide on Friday showed an increase of about 19.5 cents to $3.07. That's up 88.4 cents since Jan. 19, Lundberg said.

The recent increases are due mostly to refinery problems, Lundberg said, noting there have been at least a dozen additional partial shutdowns in the U.S. and internationally that cut refining capacity.
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Indiana refinery adds to high gas prices | IndyStar.com

I've yet to see a single article or source that attributes the recent spike to switchovers (especially planned switchovers). Believe what you want to believe.
 
#71
#71
volinbham said:
One more time:




Indiana refinery adds to high gas prices | IndyStar.com

I've yet to see a single article or source that attributes the recent spike to switchovers (especially planned switchovers). Believe what you want to believe.
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As I said, go to the EIA site. I believe that. So frankly I could care less of your skepticism. I keep seeing factors involved, of which I've already acknowledged, but also note the chief reason the prices spike this time EVERY year is the switchover. So you can refer to the DoE website and call them idiots for all I care.
 
#72
#72
volinbham said:
I've yet to see a single article or source that attributes the recent spike to switchovers (especially planned switchovers). Believe what you want to believe.
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So you are telling me that switching to summer blends is having little if any effect on pricing right now?
 
#73
#73
Seems to be a trend every year around this time. Perhaps parts all break down at the same time?

gas_seasonal1.gif
 
#75
#75
The issue is the bigger than usual spike right now. It is due to unexpected issues at refineries.

The jump in the last two weeks is beyond historical summer jumps. I've repeatedly acknowledged that there is a summer bump, due to increased demand coupled with switchovers to summer blends.

Funny how you ignore that the jump over the last two weeks is repeatedly credited to unanticipated problems with refineries. Are gas prices higher in the summer? Yes. Is the current bump above and beyond that? Yes.

Blame the goverment all you like - perhaps they should regulate that refineries can never have unexpected shutdowns.

"In the past two weeks alone there have been at least 12 refinery incidents, mostly in the U.S.," said Lundberg, in an interview.

"All the incidents combined, served to push U.S. gas prices even higher by tightening supply, at a time of rising demand," said Lundberg.
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Refinery maintenance and repairs have contributed to price gains at the retail level.
"Clearly, while these refinery repairs are necessary, the disruptions are detrimental to pricing at a time when the summer-driving season draws closer each day," said Anthony Sabino, a professor of law at St. John's University, whose practice includes oil and gas law.
"Nonetheless, the rising prices reflect somewhat of a 'panic' premium that is really unnecessary," he said in e-mailed comments. "There seems to be unjustified anxiety about supply, which while tight, is still there -- and does not factor in a lessening of demand that higher prices will compel."
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Increased prices for gasoline are being blamed on refinery problems, including problems at a refinery in Whiting, Indiana.
One of the nation's largest refineries, a BP plant in Whiting, won't be operating at full capacity for several months due to unexpected repairs. The plant processes more than 400,000 barrels of oil per day.
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