Giving up Large Leads

[Woodlawn VOL]

Basketball is a game of runs, we withstood runs on the road against Bama and South Carolina. Everytime they made a run we answered, good teams particularly at home are going to almost always make runs. The key is do you wilt or answer. I think we have proven we’re gonna answer! GBO

 

[Adam2014]

My post referred to the tenure of CRB, not just this season. I have been watching UT BasketVols since Ernie & Bernie and I have learned to become scared sh*tless when we get a double digit lead. And hey, maybe every NCAA team in the country goes through the same tedious process??

Just because you have been watching basketball for 50 years doesn't mean you are right. If you take one look at the data your argument falls apart quickly. Once again, I am pulling data from Evan Miyakawa's awesome website regarding the defensive rankings in college basketball since Barnes has been the coach. Unfortunately, the "killshot" data only goes back to last year but your argument can be defeated easily using other data.

Here are the defensive/kill shot rankings for the Tennessee Volunteers stretching back to Rick's first team in 2015-2016:

Year​	National Defensive Rating​	Killshot Rating​
2015-2016​	131st​	N/A​
2016-2017​	55th​	N/A​
2017-2018​	11th​	N/A​
2018-2019​	31st​	N/A​
2019-2020​	45th​	N/A​
2020-2021​	7th​	N/A​
2021-2022​	3rd​	N/A​
2022-2023​	1st​	8th​
2023-2024*​	2nd​	12th​

Remember, there are 351 division 1 college basketball teams. Obviously, the first year of the Barnes era was not good defensively because he had not yet recruited a roster that focused on defense. The team improved significantly by the next year. The only time your argument might have stood a chance was the two years of his tenure. Since then, the Tennessee defense has been one of the most consistent in the country. Starting in the 2020-2021 season, the Tennessee defense became elite with a top ten ranking that season and top five rankings the past three years.

While this does not include the "killshot" statistic, it would be reasonable to suggest that a team with defensive rankings this high would not give up leads as often compared to other college basketball teams. Once again, I would argue that his teams give up leads less often than other teams based on the data.

Tennessee's defensive rankings have been some of the best in the country during Rick's tenure. The defense has been especially elite over the last 4 seasons. Therefore, your claim that his teams give up large leads "a lot" is completely unfounded based on every statistical measure.

 

[Zues1]

I liked the Fifth Quarter..Had a great ribeye.

 

[hUTch2002]

I’m betting it’s a sample size issue. That 9% that lose may only be 1 game.

Yep. That’s why I threw that last sentence in there. Across all of college basketball I bet a 20-0 run only happens maybe 10 times a year on average. Of course, that’s a guess. I wonder if they keep stats on it that are easily findable. I’ll consult my buddy Google.

 

[hUTch2002]

My post referred to the tenure of CRB, not just this season. I have been watching UT BasketVols since Ernie & Bernie and I have learned to become scared sh*tless when we get a double digit lead. And hey, maybe every NCAA team in the country goes through the same tedious process??

I’m more in the side of getting scared if we get down double digits but to each their own!

 

[hUTch2002]

Just because you have been watching basketball for 50 years doesn't mean you are right. If you take one look at the data your argument falls apart quickly. Once again, I am pulling data from Evan Miyakawa's awesome website regarding the defensive rankings in college basketball since Barnes has been the coach. Unfortunately, the "killshot" data only goes back to last year but your argument can be defeated easily using other data.

Here are the defensive/kill shot rankings for the Tennessee Volunteers stretching back to Rick's first team in 2015-2016:

Year​	National Defensive Rating​	Killshot Rating​
2015-2016​	131st​	N/A​
2016-2017​	55th​	N/A​
2017-2018​	11th​	N/A​
2018-2019​	31st​	N/A​
2019-2020​	45th​	N/A​
2020-2021​	7th​	N/A​
2021-2022​	3rd​	N/A​
2022-2023​	1st​	8th​
2023-2024*​	2nd​	12th​

Remember, there are 351 division 1 college basketball teams. Obviously, the first year of the Barnes era was not good defensively because he had not yet recruited a roster that focused on defense. The team improved significantly by the next year. The only time your argument might have stood a chance was the two years of his tenure. Since then, the Tennessee defense has been one of the most consistent in the country. Starting in the 2020-2021 season, the Tennessee defense became elite with a top ten ranking that season and top five rankings the past three years.

While this does not include the "killshot" statistic, it would be reasonable to suggest that a team with defensive rankings this high would not give up leads as often compared to other college basketball teams. Once again, I would argue that his teams give up leads less often than other teams based on the data.

Tennessee's defensive rankings have been some of the best in the country during Rick's tenure. The defense has been especially elite over the last 4 seasons. Therefore, your claim that his teams give up large leads "a lot" is completely unfounded based on every statistical measure.

What an impressive 4-year run on D. Top 7 4 straight years is unreal.

 

[macrovol]

I watched the Celtics give up a 21 point lead to the Cavs the other night. It's a universal phenomenon. Just have to learn from it.

 

[Volador]

Just because you have been watching basketball for 50 years doesn't mean you are right. If you take one look at the data your argument falls apart quickly. Once again, I am pulling data from Evan Miyakawa's awesome website regarding the defensive rankings in college basketball since Barnes has been the coach. Unfortunately, the "killshot" data only goes back to last year but your argument can be defeated easily using other data.

Here are the defensive/kill shot rankings for the Tennessee Volunteers stretching back to Rick's first team in 2015-2016:

Year​	National Defensive Rating​	Killshot Rating​
2015-2016​	131st​	N/A​
2016-2017​	55th​	N/A​
2017-2018​	11th​	N/A​
2018-2019​	31st​	N/A​
2019-2020​	45th​	N/A​
2020-2021​	7th​	N/A​
2021-2022​	3rd​	N/A​
2022-2023​	1st​	8th​
2023-2024*​	2nd​	12th​

Remember, there are 351 division 1 college basketball teams. Obviously, the first year of the Barnes era was not good defensively because he had not yet recruited a roster that focused on defense. The team improved significantly by the next year. The only time your argument might have stood a chance was the two years of his tenure. Since then, the Tennessee defense has been one of the most consistent in the country. Starting in the 2020-2021 season, the Tennessee defense became elite with a top ten ranking that season and top five rankings the past three years.

While this does not include the "killshot" statistic, it would be reasonable to suggest that a team with defensive rankings this high would not give up leads as often compared to other college basketball teams. Once again, I would argue that his teams give up leads less often than other teams based on the data.

Tennessee's defensive rankings have been some of the best in the country during Rick's tenure. The defense has been especially elite over the last 4 seasons. Therefore, your claim that his teams give up large leads "a lot" is completely unfounded based on every statistical measure.

What does this have to do w the price of rice in China? And or, my observations on giving up large leads late in the game??? Thanks for the nonbinary stats though - interesting read!