Global Warming is a legit threat

#51
#51
Thanks for the link and quote....

As for this statement...I find this very interesting on a personal note...because I am the exact opposite. When I didn't know that much about it and had only read a bit here and there, I was pretty skeptical. It seemed like the next great wacko theme. However, since then I have studied the issue a lot more - and I have moved from skeptic to one who accepts the general premise. There are certainly some weak areas (and the climatologists will generally admit this)...and these weaknesses are part of what makes preparing responses to warming a problem. But, these weaknesses have little to do with the foundation of the theory and much more to do with chaos in climate forecasting...as well as the basic problem with modeling complex (and complicated), many-variable systems.

I'm trying to figure out a way to answer this satisfactorily and still be concise. When the idea first came out from under a rock it didn't seem all that far fetched that human production of various pollutants couldn't have some impact. Remember, things weren't so...strident back then. Later, I ran across much more alarming statements, we're talking doomsday stuff here, and started hearing things along the lines of "the science is settled". It was at this point I became suspicious. I just could not reconcile what was being claimed with this supposed carte blanche acceptance. Didn't "smell" right. At the end of the 90's came the infamous Michael Mann "hockey stick" graph. This graph basically said that temps hadn't been where they are in a melinnium. It also seemed to ignore the otherwise ubiquitous Little Ice Age and, more importantly, the Medieval Warm Period. Somehow, in spite of this, Mann's work found itself at the center of the '01 Third Assessment Report. As I understand it (drum roll please) Mann was in charge of the portion of the report that included his hockey stick. Then in '03 a guy named McIntyre came along and simply fragged the stick so bad it's simply vanished. No fanfare mind you. So quietly there are some who think it's still part of the IPCC data. (Not) That smell was now a stench. I began to genuinely suspect science was being slutted out for agenda. Then I started actually looking into the IPCC. Simply stated, these people are absolutely buried in computer modeling. I kept this quote that was pulled directly from the 3rd Assessment:

"In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system's future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions."

Now tell me, does the above statement issued by the gurus of of AGW resemble what Gore et.al are selling? I didn't think so either. Lately there's been things like the GISS (and it's wildly AGW friendly James Hansen) having to revise downward a lot of it's temperature data so that now 6 of the top 10 hottest years are from earlier then 1953 and 5 are pre-1940. Doesn't jibe well unless you want to argue CO2 just took a break for a few decades. Very recently it's come to light from the Argo buoy system that over the last 4-5 years the oceans have been slightly...wait for it...cooling. Not exactly a revelation storming through the major media outlets. Why not?

I could go on and on but I've wasted enough board space already. Basically, the burden of proof seems extraordinarily light for a group of people that are burning up huge amounts of tax dollars and insisting we MUST take action on their say so. Couple that with repeated crimes of exaggeration or omission where convenient and I find myself closer and closer to simply agreeing with John Coleman, founder of the Weather Channel, who recently had this no-nonsense statement about AGW.

"It is the greatest scam in history."
 
#52
#52
man can't we all just be good ol' republicans and say screw al gore? i mean is all this debate really necessary???????
 
#53
#53
I can read it...if I can find it... I have access to most on-line journals, including Nature (through school/work). I tried googling it, but all I can find are references to Crichton's p. 496 (or so) where he says it...or where other people repeat it. I assume Crichton got it from somewhere....perhaps this Nature article...State of Fear was written in 2004.

While this is not likely the exact article it appears to present much of the same argument alluded to the other:

Bjorn Lomborg: Kyoto doesn't add up - Full Comment

I also would like to point out that there are many, MANY more people that have signed off as being skeptics than you are going to hear about from any major media outlet. Consider:

Home - Global Warming Petition Project

Leipzig Declaration

I really don't think enough is said about that old bugaboo, money. Ask yourself this question; how many people would lose money if tomorrow morning it (somehow) was proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that AGW was demonstrably false? Whatever figure you're thinking of, I bet it's too low. As just the tip of the iceburg (no doubt with some poor polar bear stranded on it) I'll give you this tidbit involving the High Priest himself.

Creators of carbon credit scheme cashing in on it
 
#54
#54
"In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system's future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions."

Now tell me, does the above statement issued by the gurus of of AGW resemble what Gore et.al are selling?

Well, I don't know who the et. al are, per se...but I do know a couple of guys who testified to Congress last year - and this is exactly what they told them (at least the last half). I don't think that this aspect is intentionally covered up. Gore is obviously a self-selected salesman ... and he doesn't always do productive things for the climate change community.

Obviously an open discourse is necessary and climate scientists must be held accountable for their work. As you point out, there is a danger in saying the science is settled and then asking on hard questions. Issues like this are made so difficult from a policy context because of their expense and time line. If the climate change community is correct, then there are windows in which to act to avoid growing problems. However, how much do you rush to act to achieve action within one of these windows when factoring in the uncertainty in the predictions and the cost of action (or inaction). These are not easy questions.
 
#55
#55
My general view is the practical (to me) approach. In general I think we can acknowledge that human emissions (you know what I mean here) at best have a net neutral effect but more likely have a net negative effect.

Therefore, it makes sense to try to reduce said emissions. Unfortunately, the GW zealots have twisted the science some to promote an agenda beyond reduction of emissions.

Because the effects (and their consequences) are unknown, blanket policies to force reduction are insufficient since they don't account for the potential negative effects of said policies.

When the debate is viewed as settled we are likely to get bad policy.
 
#56
#56
One thing that will be interesting is that regardless of who wins the Presidential election, we will have a President who has an interest in addressing climate change....although Obama has told us very little (surprise).


I am sure you are correct. That is discouraging.
 
#57
#57
Well, I don't know who the et. al are, per se...but I do know a couple of guys who testified to Congress last year - and this is exactly what they told them (at least the last half). I don't think that this aspect is intentionally covered up. Gore is obviously a self-selected salesman ... and he doesn't always do productive things for the climate change community.

Obviously an open discourse is necessary and climate scientists must be held accountable for their work. As you point out, there is a danger in saying the science is settled and then asking on hard questions. Issues like this are made so difficult from a policy context because of their expense and time line. If the climate change community is correct, then there are windows in which to act to avoid growing problems. However, how much do you rush to act to achieve action within one of these windows when factoring in the uncertainty in the predictions and the cost of action (or inaction). These are not easy questions.

While I rather agree with the concerns listed in this post it is precisely this part I've put in bold that is NOT happening. The "Gore et.al" mentioned earlier is simply Gore and his myrmidons, especially almost everyone in the media. There is no "discourse" when to question one side gets you labeled a "flat earther" or "holocost denier". If anything, and I mean anything happens with snow/flood/cold/heat/drought you can almost hold your breath and wait for the AGW/Climate Change monster to be brought up. Simple climate events have ceased to exist. There were some (granted,not many, but that's not the point) that tried to tie the Indian tsunami, a geological event, to AGW. Remember when the 04-05 hurricane seasons were hailed as a "smoking gun" for AGW? Now we've had two consecutive years that came in below exptectations but, you know, there's always some perfectly good AGW reason that hurricane activity PROVES AGW but quiet is just an unusual natural thing momentarily hiding the AGW monster. Ask yourself, when was the last time you heard about some climate related event remotely newsworthy that didn't have AGW inserted into it by somebody?

Ad hominem attacks on skeptics are so common one wonders how many more doubters are out there but make the choice to keep their mouths shut. Remember this little gem?

.: U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works :: Minority Page :.

You seem like someone more than capable of assessing worthy science when it's presented to you. My STRONG issue is that there is an open and concerted effort to prevent you (and everyone else) from getting the opportunity to assess anything. There is only one side you are supposed to hear. There is only one side you need to hear. There is no science but their science and they want to, literally, change the way the world works based on this. The known cost of what these people want, not just in dollars but in control of economies right down to what you as a consumer can do, is WAY beyond what their playstation computer models justify to me.
 
#58
#58
As you point out, there is a danger in saying the science is settled and then asking on hard questions.

What in the world did I mean in this sentence? I think I meant "...is settled and then not asking hard questions"; however, that isn't what came out!
 
#59
#59
The known cost of what these people want, not just in dollars but in control of economies right down to what you as a consumer can do, is WAY beyond what their playstation computer models justify to me.

That is what I am driving at when I say we have serious questions that beg serious answers. The community does have internal debates that satisfy some of the need for discourse that drives good science. However, there are probably valid dissenting opinions that get steamrolled...I don't know that for a fact, but it would seem possible. I'm sure the community doesn't see it that way....I should try to ask some of these guys how these views work there way in...and what barriers exist. While I doubt that there is any way for issues like "does CO2 in the atmosphere cause a greenhouse effect" because those are largely answered. To what extent, what is the sensitivity of that effect, I believe there are people asking those questions and attempting to arrive at a better answer.

Also, I wouldn't call these models playstation computer models - many have supercomputers behind them...as far as the climate forecasting is concerned. The MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) has an economics portion that can fit on your laptop..and they've dumbed down and parametrized a version of the climate simulation so that you can run emissions scenarios on your PC to get temperatures and GDP shifts...which is pretty cool, I think.
 
#60
#60
That is what I am driving at when I say we have serious questions that beg serious answers. The community does have internal debates that satisfy some of the need for discourse that drives good science. However, there are probably valid dissenting opinions that get steamrolled...I don't know that for a fact, but it would seem possible.[/quote]

I'm with you on the first part. The part in bold? C'mon, of course you know it for a fact. Oh, maybe not every single AGW subscriber, but as a movement? They don't want to steamroll dissenting opinions, they want to steamroll that there even ARE dissenting opinions. Is there legit debate going on somewhere in labs? Probably. Where is real debate where we can see it? Calling someone a holocost denier or flat earther isn't discourse or debate, it's dismissal, and it's pretty much all that gets any play on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. This is what chafes me so much. You are not told the whole story or, if possible, denied knowing there is a story to begin with. You're supposed to shut up and believe what you're told. It's deliberate and it's dishonest. For instance:

Did anyone hear that '07 broke the old Antarctic sea ice maximum of 16.03 million sq km with 16.17 million? Didn't catch the big show on the subject on CNN? Don't fret, as of 3/28 we were 1.5 million sq km ahead of last years pace at this point. Maybe Al will talk about it this year if we set a new maximum ice record.

Did everyone catch that the HadCRUT, RSS, GISS and UAH indicators all showed global cooling between Jan 07 and Jan 08? (don't try arguing the minutia, instead ask yourself how much press this would have gotten if it went the other way) In fact, not one year since has been hotter than '98 according to GISS. (no word yet if the Vols NC is actually to blame for that)

Anybody run across this quote?
"At least three glaciers in the same bay have advanced in one year," said Chris Larsen, a scientist at the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, studying the ever-changing landscape of the area. "To have them advance right now is kind of weird."
This in reference to glacial growth in Icy Bay Alaska.

‘They cling precariously to the top of what is left of the ice floe, their fragile grip the perfect symbol of the tragedy of global warming. Captured on film by Canadian environmentalists, the pair of polar bears look stranded on chunks of broken ice…."
Daily Telegraph with famous polar bear picture

'They were on the ice when we found them and on the ice when we left. They were healthy, fat and seemed comfortable on their iceberg.'
Amanda Byrd- Australian grad student who actually took the picture on a university field trip.

The near total disregard of things like the first examples to me constitutes lie by omission. Call it a pet peeve but I HATE when part of someones offense is to bury their opponents defense. It's like the DA hiding exculpatory evidence. The polar bear thing, well, that's darn near just a flat out lie.

On the lighter side here is a site dedicated to all the world's ills attributed to AGW.

warmlist

My personal favorite is "smaller brains" but I gotta admit I was disappointed to find the "shrimp sex problems" link no longer works.
 
#61
#61
C'mon, of course you know it for a fact. Oh, maybe not every single AGW subscriber, but as a movement? They don't want to steamroll dissenting opinions, they want to steamroll that there even ARE dissenting opinions.

What I mean is that I have no direct evidence of the scientific community steamrolling dissenting opinions and subjectively ignoring valid dissents. It probably happens by some (this is more common in science sometimes than you would like to see). On the other hand, the consumers of climate change theory and the work of the climatologists love to steamroll dissenting views and cast the dispersions you reference. Of course, many of the skeptics like to call the climate change community communists and quacks...so...neither side has a monopoly on name calling.


Calling someone a holocost denier or flat earther isn't discourse or debate, it's dismissal, and it's pretty much all that gets any play on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. This is what chafes me so much. You are not told the whole story or, if possible, denied knowing there is a story to begin with. You're supposed to shut up and believe what you're told. It's deliberate and it's dishonest.

The media goes overboard with this. It is like those stupid shows where London is suddenly under water...come on...the area under that end of the probability distribution is smaller than your average Bammer's brain.



Did anyone hear that '07 broke the old Antarctic sea ice maximum of 16.03 million sq km with 16.17 million? Didn't catch the big show on the subject on CNN? Don't fret, as of 3/28 we were 1.5 million sq km ahead of last years pace at this point. Maybe Al will talk about it this year if we set a new maximum ice record.

Did everyone catch that the HadCRUT, RSS, GISS and UAH indicators all showed global cooling between Jan 07 and Jan 08? (don't try arguing the minutia, instead ask yourself how much press this would have gotten if it went the other way) In fact, not one year since has been hotter than '98 according to GISS. (no word yet if the Vols NC is actually to blame for that)

I think that this latter point will be very interesting to watch. So, I thought that solar cycles (the 11-year or so cycles) drove climate a lot and I knew that we were on the downard end of a cycle, so I thought that this would explain the cooling. However, I brought this up to Ron Prinn (a dynamic climatologist) and he corrected my thoughts, saying that these cycles actually drive temperature very little (there are larger solar cycles that surely do drive temperature and climate - but not these smaller variations, apparently). Since that time, I have come across descriptions of El Nino vs. La Nina ... and the current La Nina pattern as a possible explanation for the colder temperatures this year. I would actually really like to see a good explanation of what this cooling means and what is driving it. I will also be very interested in seeing when this La Nina breaks, where do temperatures return? Do we exceed the '98 temperatures? Of course, '98 was probably an anomaly that (if we are warming) climate change will take some time to catch up to as far as an average goes. A better scientific question is, what will happen with regard to the 5-year or 10-year average temperature record? If we do not see steady warming in this record, then I would really like to sit down with a few climatologists and discuss that one.
 
#62
#62
What I mean is that I have no direct evidence of the scientific community steamrolling dissenting opinions and subjectively ignoring valid dissents. It probably happens by some (this is more common in science sometimes than you would like to see). On the other hand, the consumers of climate change theory and the work of the climatologists love to steamroll dissenting views and cast the dispersions you reference. Of course, many of the skeptics like to call the climate change community communists and quacks...so...neither side has a monopoly on name calling.




The media goes overboard with this. It is like those stupid shows where London is suddenly under water...come on...the area under that end of the probability distribution is smaller than your average Bammer's brain.





I think that this latter point will be very interesting to watch. So, I thought that solar cycles (the 11-year or so cycles) drove climate a lot and I knew that we were on the downard end of a cycle, so I thought that this would explain the cooling. However, I brought this up to Ron Prinn (a dynamic climatologist) and he corrected my thoughts, saying that these cycles actually drive temperature very little (there are larger solar cycles that surely do drive temperature and climate - but not these smaller variations, apparently). Since that time, I have come across descriptions of El Nino vs. La Nina ... and the current La Nina pattern as a possible explanation for the colder temperatures this year. I would actually really like to see a good explanation of what this cooling means and what is driving it. I will also be very interested in seeing when this La Nina breaks, where do temperatures return? Do we exceed the '98 temperatures? Of course, '98 was probably an anomaly that (if we are warming) climate change will take some time to catch up to as far as an average goes. A better scientific question is, what will happen with regard to the 5-year or 10-year average temperature record? If we do not see steady warming in this record, then I would really like to sit down with a few climatologists and discuss that one.

While there may be no monopoly on name calling I don't think you'll fight me too much for saying there is more by the subscribers of AGW. Moreover, the AGW myrmidons (this includes practically all media, a majority of politicians, Hollywood, etc) are hocking AGW's wares essentially unopposed. This is my gripe against even the "reasonable" scientists who are really looking into this topic seriously. When Big Al makes some absurd claim that only a Bammer should consider rational, where are those scientists? Why can't X and Y climatologist get their happy butts on 60 Minutes and the cover of Time and try to bring rationality back to the discussion? Maybe I'm being too harsh but whatever "reasonable" cimatologists are out there I consider them culpable in how demonstrably one sided the AGW argument has become.

Here's something I found on that solar issue I thought you'd find interesting.

Evidence of a Significant Solar Imprint in Annual Globally Averaged Temperature Trends - Part 2 « Watts Up With That?

Here's another one. A debate was held by Intelligence Squared for or against the statement "Global warming is not a crises." The audience voted going in and coming out. The skeptics made a very large impression. Hearing things you simply were not told before will do that.

'Global Warming Is Not a Crisis' : NPR

Your other questions are valid of course, as usual. My contention is that unless there is a HUGE change you will ONLY see such questions addressed to the general population if they are (or can be made to appear) AGW friendly. This is a very, very bad thing with so much riding on the outcome.
 
#63
#63
A consequence I think that might be missed in all of this GW chasing is that of...intellectual muscle and money being completely wasted. There is a limited amount of each to go around..
 
#64
#64
A consequence I think that might be missed in all of this GW chasing is that of...intellectual muscle and money being completely wasted. There is a limited amount of each to go around..

Money has been mentioned before but it's worth you mentioning again since it's a LOT of money. Your other point, brains that could be used elsewhere altogether, and to more demonstrable and immediate effect, is a take on this that should be brought up more often.
 
#72
#72
TT, if you haven't read Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years please do so and let us know if it alters your thinking. Amazon.com: Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years: Dennis T. Avery,S. Fred Singer: Books

If I can get the time to read it, I'll let you know what I think. I'm already familiar with the 1500 year solar cycle to some "degree" ... but I could stand to learn more. I read a huge chunk of the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report...portions of which I found pretty useful...
 
#73
#73
I have had these debates before here and find that they get very stale, but this one has some knowledgeable people from both fronts making good points.

My cut is that the GW crowd is far too politicized to ever truly let the science matter again. The media outlets that have been sounding the drum have only gotten worse and are clearly the lefty crowd.

On the other hand, to pretend that the Big Oil types don't have the money to weigh into the public sphere, even over the loudest of "flat earther" shouts from the loonies, is probably short sighted. Each side has its merits and we could probably come to some reasonable resolution if the debate had remained out of the public realm for a few more years. The lefty approach to this thing has probably set it back decades.
 
#74
#74
While I personally think that humans really don't have much influence on GW, I hope that the scare tactics of the left help accelerate work on non carbon based energy sources.

As humans, we sometimes do the right things for the wrong reasons.
 
#75
#75
While I personally think that humans really don't have much influence on GW, I hope that the scare tactics of the left help accelerate work on non carbon based energy sources.

As humans, we sometimes do the right things for the wrong reasons.

...or at least non-fossil fuel based....
 

VN Store



Back
Top