Good economic news !

#27
#27
droski said:
the cap rates are ridiculous some places. you'd have to be a tard to not get return. financing is the problem.
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exactly. No financing has driven caps to such ridiculous levels that the residual returns in the interim easily justify the investments.
 
#28
#28
BigPapaVol said:
I won't without a legitimate turn, but RE has a pretty fixed cycle and I'm willing to ride a decent amount of time to realize the gains.

Frankly, the lending environment is the driver in that business for the foreseeable future and it won't be changing much until DC finds some new leadership.
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agree
 
#29
#29
BigPapaVol said:
Their banking system was considerably weaker than ours, but our Fed has forced the valve closed, so we have no real advantage from that world. .
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i argued the former as well, but he rightfully pointed out the lack of transparancy on the balance sheets of the banks here and asked if that was really any different. of course in japan they couldn't fire anyone and banks were very reluctant to call in loans for political reasons.
 
#30
#30
droski said:
i argued the former as well, but he rightfully pointed out the lack of transparancy on the balance sheets of the banks here and asked if that was really any different. of course in japan they couldn't fire anyone and banks were very reluctant to call in loans for political reasons.
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I think our Fed has forced our banking system to essentially mirror their structurally jacked up system and induced a similar problem. I agree with his implied questioning of the solvency of our banks, and that is a piece of why the Fed has shut off the tap. That said, how on earth does a bank earn enough capital to again become solvent if it can't go get new interest income? Fees? The Fed has raised their prices and shut down their income sources. How's that for a Catch 22.
 
#31
#31
BigPapaVol said:
I think our Fed has forced our banking system to essentially mirror their structurally jacked up system and induced a similar problem. I agree with his implied questioning of the solvency of our banks, and that is a piece of why the Fed has shut off the tap. That said, how on earth does a bank earn enough capital to again become solvent if it can't go get new interest income? Fees? The Fed has raised their prices and shut down their income sources. How's that for a Catch 22.
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and this is why obama as president is scary. he sees the profits of the banks and sees solvancy and outlandish profits and demands these outlandish profits on the back of the consumer stop. if he had a some economic knowledge he'd realize the interest spread is keeping them afloat, not raping joe six, and any need by the fed to combat inflation in the future, combined with hundreds of billions of failing real estate loans, is a recipe for a new bailout 5 years from now.
 
#32
#32
it's a shame that LG has bought the government spin hook, line and sinker. As joevol pointed out, 9 states didn't report unemployment claims because of the holiday, including California and Virginia which gave "estimates" but not firm numbers. The remaining seven had their numbers estimated by the federal government.

Is it any wonder why LG rarely provides links to back up his point?
 
#33
#33
droski said:
it's not wishful thinking. we have P/E ratios near historical lows and unemployement at all time highs. please explain the former if the market is convinced the economy doesn't suck anymore? i wish you were right because this would be the greatest buying opportunity in US history and i'd make 50% on my money in months.
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I might be reminding you about that post in 6 months.


KB5252 said:
Absurd, this is all about being realistic about the economy for the average American. We have been told for at least 5 solid months that we are on the cusp of a turnaround and headed in the right direction by this administration and much of the media. They have been wrong, excuse the American public if they remain skeptical.
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I think even droski would agree that there is a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting for a signal that it is time to put it back in play. No one expects the economy to turn on a dime or to fully recover for some time. But, the kind of news we have had over the last couple of weeks suggests that at least some are going to plow that money back into the markets, into manufacturing, etc., all of which spurs more and more investment and growth.

I'm not claiming to have nearly the by-the-book understanding of people who run investments for a living, like droski.
 
#34
#34
lawgator1 said:
I might be reminding you about that post in 6 months.





I think even droski would agree that there is a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting for a signal that it is time to put it back in play. No one expects the economy to turn on a dime or to fully recover for some time. But, the kind of news we have had over the last couple of weeks suggests that at least some are going to plow that money back into the markets, into manufacturing, etc., all of which spurs more and more investment and growth.

I'm not claiming to have nearly the by-the-book understanding of people who run investments for a living, like droski.
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Droski may be seeing somethign different, but on my end I am not seeing much activity.
 
#35
#35
tigervol9802 said:
Droski may be seeing somethign different, but on my end I am not seeing much activity.
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Why would it happen all at once? Seems like it should be a dam bursting, starting with a trickle of money trying to be ahead of the pack and then when it seems safe and worth taking the risk, everyone jumps back in.

Isn't that the way it always works?

What I'm saying is that, by November, a lot more people may be jumping back in. Not enough to make the economy "great" by then, but maybe enough that people feel it doesn't just totally suck in every respect.

And its that trend upwars that the GOP wants to knock. I see where joevol got his info -- its on Drudgereport.

That is what is sad -- the GOP will want to perpetuate the hurt that the economy has had on people all in hopes of staving off any bounce to the POTUS and the Dems.

Rather than lead on the economy and join in being grateful for the recovery that might slowly emerge (I said "might"), they will undermine it at every turn, despte the effects it has on real people.
 
#37
#37
lawgator1 said:
Why would it happen all at once? Seems like it should be a dam bursting, starting with a trickle of money trying to be ahead of the pack and then when it seems safe and worth taking the risk, everyone jumps back in.

Isn't that the way it always works?

What I'm saying is that, by November, a lot more people may be jumping back in. Not enough to make the economy "great" by then, but maybe enough that people feel it doesn't just totally suck in every respect.

And its that trend upwars that the GOP wants to knock. I see where joevol got his info -- its on Drudgereport.

That is what is sad -- the GOP will want to perpetuate the hurt that the economy has had on people all in hopes of staving off any bounce to the POTUS and the Dems.

Rather than lead on the economy and join in being grateful for the recovery that might slowly emerge (I said "might"), they will undermine it at every turn, despte the effects it has on real people.
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but your premise seems to be it's obvious the economy is turning. i assure you if it was obvious there would be a FLOOD of money coming in no matter what the gop says. do you think i or any other person in charge of a bunch of money gives a crap what beck says about the economy? or are you arguing joe six also controls the stock market?
 
#38
#38
Let's look at these positive trends:


The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services narrowed by 14% to $42.78 billion from a downwardly revised $49.76 billion the month before, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The June trade gap was originally reported as $49.90 billion.

The deficit reduction, which followed three straight months of gains, was much bigger than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a $47 billion trade gap.
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A downward move after 3 months of growth - wonder why that was unexpected...

So where did the gap come from?

The deficit reduction, which followed three straight months of gains, was much bigger than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a $47 billion trade gap.

U.S. exports of capital goods jumped by $2.26 billion, with surging sales of commercial planes accounting for more than half the gain. Sales of industrial supplies, such as fuel oil and gold, increased $502 million.

However, sales abroad of automotive vehicles and parts fell $375 million. Exports of food, feed, and beverages went down by $39 million, while consumer goods exports slipped by $8 million.

Breaking down imports, the biggest drop came from consumer goods like diamonds and pharmaceuticals, which fell $1.90 billion in July. Imports of autos and related parts declined $713 million.

Purchases of foreign-made capital goods such as computer accessories fell $579 million, industrial supplies decreased $444 million, and imports of food and feed went down by $93 million.
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Summary, oil got cheaper, we sold some planes and we bought less (consumption down). Woohoo! Hope and change!

Now to the jobs

Initial unemployment claims decreased by 27,000 to 451,000 in the week ended Sept. 4, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday. New claims for the previous week, ended Aug. 28, were revised upward to 478,000 from 472,000.
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How about that trend - revised up last week, down this week. Happy days are here again.

And oh yeah why might expectations have been low?

Although claims still remain relatively high, their recent descent is a welcome improvement after they unexpectedly soared to 504,000 in mid-August.
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Unexpectedly up is not a trend folks - only unexpectedly down (right after being unexpectedly up)

The nonfarm payrolls report showed some positive signs, including a gain of 67,000 jobs in the private sector. But that growth was still not enough to offset the loss of temporary government jobs from the 2010 Census. Overall the U.S. lost 54,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate edged up slightly, from 9.5% to 9.6%. The report was generally better than expected, but still not strong enough to signal major improvement in the job market.
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There you have it folks. Contrary to current predictions Dems will actually GAIN seats in the House and Senate because the economy is steaming ahead.

Good news indeed

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704644404575481411027521610.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews
 
#39
#39
lawgator1 said:
And its that trend upwars that the GOP wants to knock. I see where joevol got his info -- its on Drudgereport.
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Drudge includes a link, which itself provides a link to a bloomberg article.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 27,000 to 451,000 Last Week - Bloomberg

For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the federal holiday earlier this week, a Labor Department official told reporters. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven, the official said.
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#40
#40
lawgator1 said:
I might be reminding you about that post in 6 months.





I think even droski would agree that there is a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting for a signal that it is time to put it back in play. No one expects the economy to turn on a dime or to fully recover for some time. But, the kind of news we have had over the last couple of weeks suggests that at least some are going to plow that money back into the markets, into manufacturing, etc., all of which spurs more and more investment and growth.

I'm not claiming to have nearly the by-the-book understanding of people who run investments for a living, like droski.
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All I'm saying is we have heard spin on these or those numbers not being as bad as predicted before and in many cases the time numbers were made public all gains were lost or went south again. There is good reason for the public to remain skeptical at this point until we see sustained positive indicators.

You accuse some commentators of "spin" on the issue yet you guzzle the spin from others and use that as a basis to criticize spin you disagree with, it's almost comical LG.
 
#41
#41
droski said:
but your premise seems to be it's obvious the economy is turning. i assure you if it was obvious there would be a FLOOD of money coming in no matter what the gop says. do you think i or any other person in charge of a bunch of money gives a crap what beck says about the economy? or are you arguing joe six also controls the stock market?
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MG1968 said:
Drudge includes a link, which itself provides a link to a bloomberg article.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 27,000 to 451,000 Last Week - Bloomberg
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Drudge has in red that the numbers are made up.

I don't think that any investor cares what Beck says about the economy. But that's not who we are talking about.

And actually, I really don't think its Beck so much as more mainstream figures who will jump out ahead of the recovery and try to slow it down. What we are seeing today in reaction to this news -- the stomping of feet and whining that its not getting any better -- is a pretty thinly veiled charade.
 
#42
#42
lawgator1 said:
Drudge has in red that the numbers are made up.

I don't think that any investor cares what Beck says about the economy. But that's not who we are talking about.

And actually, I really don't think its Beck so much as more mainstream figures who will jump out ahead of the recovery and try to slow it down. What we are seeing today in reaction to this news -- the stomping of feet and whining that its not getting any better -- is a pretty thinly veiled charade.
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How can you say it is getting better. You have 1 data point that is out of line with at least 3 other data points.
 
#43
#43
lawgator1 said:
What we are seeing today in reaction to this news -- the stomping of feet and whining that its not getting any better -- is a pretty thinly veiled charade.
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do you realize how insignificant jobless claims dropping by 27K is? do you realize that you need to get WELL below 400k to show any signs of job growth? the market doesn't give a crap what anyone says. if there were obvious signs the economy was improving jesus christ himself could tell us the economy is in the crapper and the market would still be up 400 points. god i'm sick of explaining basic crap like this to you.
 
#44
#44
lawgator1 said:
Drudge has in red that the numbers are made up.

I don't think that any investor cares what Beck says about the economy. But that's not who we are talking about.

And actually, I really don't think its Beck so much as more mainstream figures who will jump out ahead of the recovery and try to slow it down. What we are seeing today in reaction to this news -- the stomping of feet and whining that its not getting any better -- is a pretty thinly veiled charade.
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really? We have people trying to slow down the economy, but you're buying what the administration is selling as something more than political?

I don't even know how to respond to such a thought process.
 
#45
#45
BigPapaVol said:
really? We have people trying to slow down the economy, but you're buying what the administration is selling as something more than political?

I don't even know how to respond to such a thought process.
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the republicans don't care about the little people. only the rich people which make up 1/3 of their voting block. makes sense to me.
 
#46
#46
droski said:
do you realize how insignificant jobless claims dropping by 27K is? do you realize that you need to get WELL below 400k to show any signs of job growth? the market doesn't give a crap what anyone says. if there were obvious signs the economy was improving jesus christ himself could tell us the economy is in the crapper and the market would still be up 400 points. god i'm sick of explaining basic crap like this to you.
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I find it enlightening.
 
#49
#49
pistol_m9_500.jpg


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