Good economic news !

#76
#76
Dow is up over 2009!!!!!.....way to set those goals high there Skippy
 
#77
#77
the S&P is up 1% in the last 3 months.

S&P 500 Index - CNNMoney.com

This is getting really sad.

Do you realize historically how much the market rallies when people expect a recovery? sure is a hell of a lot higher than 7.6% (year over year increases). in 2004 the market was up 40% as an example.

Take a look at this historical volitility chart:

http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/sd_day.pdf

8% is NOTHING. Obama craps and the market will go up or down 8%.
 
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#78
#78
droski said:
the S&P is up 1% in the last 3 months.

S&P 500 Index - CNNMoney.com

This is getting really sad.

Do you realize historically how much the market rallies when people expect a recovery? sure is a hell of a lot higher than 7.6% (year over year increases). in 2004 the market was up 40% as an example.
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Pure desperation for ANY thing positive.
 
#81
#81
OrangeEmpire said:
+1

:hi:
Click to expand...


I opened this thread with great expectations,
I thought ACLG was going to announce that
Barry had choked to death on a Mexican goat
cheese ice cream cone!!!

Alas I am greatly disapointed, my hopes are
dashed, I hearby announce that the official
happy hour will begin one hour early today!!!

If you havn't had one, you're already late!!!


Soooooooo........ a blind rabbit is hopping
through the woods when he bumps into a
blind snake.

The rabbit ask the snake, “I don’t know what
I am. Would you crawl over me and tell me?”

The snake crawls over the rabbit and says,
“You are furry, have long ears, and a little
tail. You are a rabbit.”

The snake then asked the rabbit to hop on
him and tell him what he was.

The rabbit hopped on the snake and said,
“You are cold blooded, covered with scales,
can twist in every direction, and have no balls
….OMG President Obama!”

FR_HounDog.jpg
 
#82
#82
lawgator1 said:
FACT: Over the last year, the Dow is up 9.07 %

FACT: Year to date, it is down slightly, 0.19 %.



BIG HUGE GIGANTIC FACT THAT YOU HATE: In the last 3 months, the market is up a whopping 513.79 points, or 5.19 % !!!


If the market is a leading indicator during a recovery, it would seem that the last three months in particular suggest a turnaround. Not abrupt, but then again no one said it would be. And, not over as it will take a long time.

But Obama and the Dems might come November have something to point to as indicating that things are slowly getting better on their watch, as opposed to bordering economic anarchy and chaos under Bush.

And if that message takes hold, the GOP game plan is out the proverbial window.
Click to expand...

It is amazing how desperate you are for gov't.
 
#83
#83
lawgator1 said:
FACT: Over the last year, the Dow is up 9.07 %

FACT: Year to date, it is down slightly, 0.19 %.



BIG HUGE GIGANTIC FACT THAT YOU HATE: In the last 3 months, the market is up a whopping 513.79 points, or 5.19 % !!!
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The Bush recovery of 03 resulting from tax cuts resulted in an immediate one year climb of almost 40% followed by an additional 3 year gain of another 30% plus.

If you look at the recoveries over the past 30 years... this growth is so anemic that you cannot rightly call it a recovery.


If the market is a leading indicator during a recovery, it would seem that the last three months in particular suggest a turnaround. Not abrupt, but then again no one said it would be. And, not over as it will take a long time.
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Supply side recoveries are sharp and sustained. The last "recoveries" we saw that looked like this were during the Keynesian admins of LBJ, Nixon, Ford, and Carter.

From 61 to 64, JFK's supply side policies had raised the Dow from around 630 to close to 800... roughly 25%. From the time LBJ began his first elected term until the end of Carter's miserable term 16 years later... the Dow had a net gain of about 40-50 pts... around 5%. It never climbed over 1100. The peaks and troughs were MORE dramatic than the improving during the steep Supply Side climbs... but basically it was mostly a flat malaisse punctuated by some troughs.

But Obama and the Dems might come November have something to point to as indicating that things are slowly getting better on their watch, as opposed to bordering economic anarchy and chaos under Bush.
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That is revisionism at its finest. Goebbels would probably be impressed.

And if that message takes hold, the GOP game plan is out the proverbial window.
Click to expand...

The problem is THE POLICIES. Unless the POLICIES change so that the economy actually improves in a significant way, the "message" aka "spin" won't matter.

AND... Obama appears to be dogmatic in insisting that growing gov't regulation, debt, involvement, and taxes is the way to make the economy healthy.
 
#84
#84
BTW, all of the Supply Side recoveries saw steep declines in unemployment and natural upward pressure on wages (labor shortage).
 
#85
#85
droski said:
the S&P is up 1% in the last 3 months.

S&P 500 Index - CNNMoney.com

This is getting really sad.

Do you realize historically how much the market rallies when people expect a recovery? sure is a hell of a lot higher than 7.6% (year over year increases). in 2004 the market was up 40% as an example.

Take a look at this historical volitility chart:

http://schwert.ssb.rochester.edu/sd_day.pdf

8% is NOTHING. Obama craps and the market will go up or down 8%.
Click to expand...


Was 2004 not the height of the post-9/11 and real estate-driven bubble? I hardly see how pointing to that proves much of anything with regard to a slow economkic recovery coming out of this type of recession.

And at any rate, I think you are missing the forest for the trees. The question is the perception that things are turning. And it would seem that an argument can be made that they are.

Now, you, along with the GOP touters, want to discourage optimisim. You say you do that based on your boots-on-the ground, work every day in the industry, meals with signficant investors, experience. And I accept that.

But I maintain that if the market continues to creep back up and if the news is that money is coming back in to acquire and to build (which means jobs), then the GOP will need a better argument than the one they have now.
 
#86
#86
lawgator1 said:
Was 2004 not the height of the post-9/11 and real estate-driven bubble? I hardly see how pointing to that proves much of anything with regard to a slow economkic recovery coming out of this type of recession.

And at any rate, I think you are missing the forest for the trees. The question is the perception that things are turning. And it would seem that an argument can be made that they are.

Now, you, along with the GOP touters, want to discourage optimisim. You say you do that based on your boots-on-the ground, work every day in the industry, meals with signficant investors, experience. And I accept that.

But I maintain that if the market continues to creep back up and if the news is that money is coming back in to acquire and to build (which means jobs), then the GOP will need a better argument than the one they have now.
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2007 was the height of the real estate bubble. 2004 was the recovery from the dot com bubble and the bush tax cuts.

where is this preception that things are turning coming from? anyone but the democrats? serious question. please link it.

this isn't discouraging optimism this is reality or at least the reality of the overall perception as i've pretty much proven.

if the tooth fairy exists than i should start pulling my teeth out.
 
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#87
#87
LG. Do yourself a favor and search "Dow history chart". The 70's are the model for the policies the Dems are using AND a probable forecast for the results. The problem we have now is that the debt for liberal programs had not grown as much by the mid-70's. Policies that were then just stupid and ineffective are now dangerous enough to create a double dip or even a series of recessions separated by only doldrums.
 
#88
#88
The optimism I see is based on the idea the Dems are about to lose big and set up a legislative stalemate for the next 2 to 6 years.
 
#89
#89
sjt18 said:
The optimism I see is based on the idea the Dems are about to lose big and set up a legislative stalemate for the next 2 to 6 years.
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if it's obvious the dems are going to lose the house there is no question the market will rally.
 
#90
#90
sjt18 said:
LG. Do yourself a favor and search "Dow history chart". The 70's are the model for the policies the Dems are using AND a probable forecast for the results. The problem we have now is that the debt for liberal programs had not grown as much by the mid-70's. Policies that were then just stupid and ineffective are now dangerous enough to create a double dip or even a series of recessions separated by only doldrums.
Click to expand...


The percentage of voters that engage in such modeling and who would vote for Democrats is already infinitesimal. I'm not talking about them. Heck, those folks alreayd know that the trends in the market are about a whole lot more and bigger things than who is POTUS. They aren't voting based on that, anyway.

My point is that the WH might be able to paint a rosier picture as time wears on. And if the GOP comes and pisses all over it, that might backfire for people anxious to feel like things are getting better, and who indeed see some relief, albeit not back to where it was, in their 401ks.

Who wants to vote for someone who keeps saying we are doomed?
 
#91
#91
wall street gave money to obama in much larger numbers than mccain. not sure what you are talking about.
 
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#93
#93
Hey LG.....the message is that we are "doomed" if we stay with BHO and the Dems. Your spin is idiotic.
 
#96
#96
lawgator1 said:
The percentage of voters that engage in such modeling and who would vote for Democrats is already infinitesimal. I'm not talking about them. Heck, those folks alreayd know that the trends in the market are about a whole lot more and bigger things than who is POTUS. They aren't voting based on that, anyway.

My point is that the WH might be able to paint a rosier picture as time wears on. And if the GOP comes and pisses all over it, that might backfire for people anxious to feel like things are getting better, and who indeed see some relief, albeit not back to where it was, in their 401ks.

Who wants to vote for someone who keeps saying we are doomed?
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Do you ever talk about any thing other than Palin, racism and 401ks?
 
#97
#97
lawgator1 said:
New claims for unemployment rose less than expected and the trade deficit narrowed more than expected. Markets reacting favorably. Could we be seeing the largest companies with big cash reserves starting to move some of that around and to invest it to further spur growth? CNBC this morning seemed to think so, with lots of discussion of tech companies looking to make software acquisitions.

This is all good news for the economy.

Of course, riding in this morning, Boortz was desperately and shrilly trying to spin it. Poorly.

The GOP runs a real risk here if in the next 2 months as the numbers keep getting better and better they stomp their feet appearing to wish that the economy still stunk.
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Don't buy any of this for one second. The economy will still stink in November when it counts for the Dems.
 
#98
#98
droski said:
if it's obvious the dems are going to lose the house there is no question the market will rally.
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I strongly suspect that corporations will unleash their reserve capital also. The net effect will be a private "supply side" solution that circumvents Obama.

Unfortunately, he could get the credit like Clinton did. Clinton was an easily predictable liberal trainwreck for the first two years. He wasn't as aggressively liberal as Obama but he did try healthcare and expansion of social programs. The 94 revolution saved his presidency.

The only difference is that Clinton was fairly competent as an executive. Obama is the most incompetent gov't executive I have seen in my lifetime. I have never seen a governor, mayor, or president as ineffective at actually running the gov't as he is.
 
#99
#99
lawgator1 said:
The percentage of voters that engage in such modeling and who would vote for Democrats is already infinitesimal. I'm not talking about them. Heck, those folks alreayd know that the trends in the market are about a whole lot more and bigger things than who is POTUS. They aren't voting based on that, anyway.

My point is that the WH might be able to paint a rosier picture as time wears on. And if the GOP comes and pisses all over it, that might backfire for people anxious to feel like things are getting better, and who indeed see some relief, albeit not back to where it was, in their 401ks.

Who wants to vote for someone who keeps saying we are doomed?
Click to expand...

So effectively you are hanging your fleeting hopes on the idea that Obama can lie well enough about the economy to move the polls between now and the election?

Maybe... but I kind of doubt it. There is only one month's worth of data left before the election and September isn't likely to be particularly strong for a 5 week acctg month. If you had not noticed, most folks aren't buying his empty rhetoric and fairy tales any more. He has to have something tangible to back up his schtick... and the facts aren't cooperating.

I can't tell you too much but I work in an industry that is part of the supply chain for a basic industrial/economic commodity. Several commodities actually. Our Sept numbers were up but a disappointment compared to forecasts. We are not always tied to the larger economy but usually are and lead by about a month. The problem is the worst one for your "rosier" picture idea- demand is down and mostly because of lagging US demand.

The ONLY thing that has kept the recovery from sliding back already are the aggressive pro-market policies in China, India, and other like economies. To use a NASCAR analogy... we have effectively been pulled by China's draft for the past several months. They recently revised their growth estimate DOWN to about 9-10%. Their gov't (very interestingly) is very concerned about losing control of Chinese companies who have been empowered to make business level decisions. They're going so fast the bureaucrats can't keep up... and of course Obama has us headed in the OPPOSITE direction.
 
#100
#100
LG, in case you didn't know, the 4th qtr is seldom the strongest for the economy broadly. Christmas helps retail but that is factored in ahead of time.

Droski may have a better grip but IIRC recoveries seldom start or pick up steam in the 4th qtr. Most product orders are already in for Christmas... if they aren't lifting the economy and expectations now... they probably won't before the election.
 
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