Great job by Travis Ford today

#51
#51
Redlegs said:
You don't really understand bookmaking much do you?
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I suspect the statistics I could run you through would make you look like a babbling idiot, but that's not really much of a trip, now is it?
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#54
#54
BigPapaVol said:
I suspect the statistics I could run you through would make you look like a babbling idiot, but that's not really much of a trip, now is it?
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I've seen your posts. I'm not impressed, but I do find you comical at times.

BigPapaVol said:
If that's a gambling slam, you got me. Congrats.
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That's what I thought. Your logic proved to be clueless.
 
#56
#56
Redlegs said:
I've seen your posts. I'm not impressed, but I do find you comical at times.


That's what I thought. Your logic proved to be clueless.
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I'm not trying to impress you. I'm simply telling you that you're senseless semantics game about underdogs diddnt remotely account for the tendency of this team to wilt in big games and the soft nature of this squad. Anything that didn't account for that was just dead wrong.

Now, tell me about logic as it pertains to the mitigation of risk for the bookie? How does that line move around if he believes his initial call made sense? How does that work, these lines that act independently of betting patterns? Tell me about my misguided logic. I can't wait, as you've proven to be a genius in picking coaches.
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#60
#60
BigPapaVol said:
I'm not trying to impress you. I'm simply telling you that you're senseless semantics game about underdogs diddnt remotely account for the tendency of this team to wilt in big games and the soft nature of this squad. Anything that didn't account for that was just dead wrong.

Now, tell me about logic as it pertains to the mitigation of risk for the bookie? How does that line move around if he believes his initial call made sense? How does that work, these lines that act independently of betting patterns? Tell me about my misguided logic. I can't wait, as you've proven to be a genius in picking coaches.
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The opening line is set in Vegas. From that point on, the spread can move based on the "action" of the gamblers. The fact Tennessee opened as a favorite and went off as a favorite shows more people were betting on Tennessee, nationwide. The money line for Tennessee was (-130) while Oklahoma State's money line was (+110). That means you had to bet $130 on Tennessee to win $100 while you had to bet $100 on OSU in order to win $110. That's why today's game was an upset. Albeit a minor upset, but still an upset in anyone's dictionary. Well, apparently all dictionaries outside the Greater Knoxville area.

Your local bookies could move a line based on big money going one way or the other, but most of them stay close to Vegas and make money because of it. If anything, Tennessee was probably a bigger favorite by Knoxville bookmakers due to the people betting on their Vols.
 
#61
#61
Redlegs said:
The opening line is set in Vegas. From that point on, the spread can move based on the "action" of the gamblers. The fact Tennessee opened as a favorite and went off as a favorite shows more people were betting on Tennessee, nationwide. The money line for Tennessee was (-130) while Oklahoma State's money line was (+110). That means you had to bet $130 on Tennessee to win $100 while you had to bet $100 on OSU in order to win $110. That's why today's game was an upset. Albeit a minor upset, but still an upset in anyone's dictionary. Well, apparently all dictionaries outside the Greater Knoxville area.
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I get all of that, but it doesn't reflect the reality of the matchup. My point was that lines are driven by betting volume and don't necessarily reflect the reality of the matchup or the capabilities of the teams.
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#63
#63
BigPapaVol said:
I get all of that, but I'm afraid you missed my point. I'm saying that smart UT money bet against our team or stayed home.
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And I'm willing to say you're probably wrong. Most people on this board alone thought Tennessee would win.
 
#65
#65
I doubt that 5% of the stories written or otherwise reported on this game will use the word "upset" to describe the outcome.
 
#67
#67
Redlegs said:
And I'm willing to say you're probably wrong. Most people on this board alone thought Tennessee would win.
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Of course they did, it's a UT board. The UK game in Knoxville this year was an upset, but there is no way it was to basketball people.
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#68
#68
BigPapaVol said:
I get all of that, but it doesn't reflect the reality of the matchup. My point was that lines are driven by betting volume and don't necessarily reflect the reality of the matchup or the capabilities of the teams.
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You'd be surprised how Vegas gets it right more than those who rank teams or seed teams. Vegas is often more accurate than the so called "experts". These guys do this for a living.
 
#70
#70
Redlegs said:
You'd be surprised how Vegas gets it right more than those who rank teams or seed teams. Vegas is often more accurate than the so called "experts". These guys do this for a living.
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the bookmakers are definitely better, but betting patterns matter in tight affairs like this one
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#72
#72
Greg C said:
You know like when San Diego came to Lexington last year and won . Now that is the proper criteria for an upset .
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And what criteria was that?

Also, BassmanBruno can answer for himself. Did you take his math tests for him too when he was in school?
 
#73
#73
#74
#74
#75
#75
Gotta go, boys. I've had a blast. When it's all said and done, most of you still wake up in the beautiful smokey mountains tommorrow. Take care and have a great night.
 
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