Help me feel better about this

[Doctor Bart]

I’ve seen enough 4 star busts and 5 star transfers to say that being in the same ball park with Bama and Georgia ain’t so bad.
If we stay healthy we’ll be fine.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

247sports still loves Bama and like to inflate their numbers. Like it says we have 1 5* while Bama has 2 5* and that’s not the case. If you click on the link and actually look at Bama recruits on 247, you will notice they don’t have 2 5*’s. While they still do have a very good class right now, the numbers on the team rankings page doesn’t match what it actually is when you click on commits and actually see what they have. We have more 5*’s players right now than Bama does committed for 25. Hope that makes you feel better about the 2025 class. As you see below, they have 0 5*’s according to 247sports rankings. View attachment 657335

The rankings I posted were from the Composite, which averages the ratings of the various services. As I mentioned, we have a low number of recruits committed, so that is good, we have time to move up, but I was kind of surprised yesterday when I looked at the rankings for the first time in months. Based on what I had read here and on Talkin Vawls, I thought we were killing it.

 

[BigBadVol]

I got a feeling our 5 QB is going to drop a little after dropping out of the elite 11 contest.

He did.

 

[Glitch]

We have reached the portion of the offseason where the casual recruiting fans show up from the far reaches of the VN badlands and bash our coaches as poor recruiters and start wanting to fire people despite the fact that we have more talent on our football team now and more talent in the commitment pipeline than we have had in a very long time. We saw what this team can do with a QB that makes good quick decisions with HH. Joe Milton was a good QB, but he was not fully capable of running our offense and we saw it sputter slightly last year. This year, we should see a product closer to what we saw in 2022 with Nico at the helm. Plus, all indications are that the defense is going to be even more improved this year. It is everyone's personal choice and right to complain, I suppose, but how can you look at the product that has been put on the field the past 3 years under Heup and these coaches and still have this much to complain about. I mean sure, nothing is perfect and there is always room to get better. However, after the incompetent boobs that cycled through this program for the past 15+ years, this coaching staff looks like a bunch of football savants by comparison. You folks need to find the joy in life and quit complaining quite so much.

 

[barrylee]

100% I’m with you Glitch! Since SAS passed I’ve been really trying to be a better person on here but there’s a few posters on here who make that almost impossible.

Probably miserable in their own life so come here to attempt to bring the rest of us down!

 

[JRich]

Yikes, can't make you feel better about those top three. Uh... how about, "8th is better than 16th?"

There is also the interesting phenomenon (or conspiracy theory) that when a 5 star commits to UT he strangely becomes a 4 star, and if a 4 star commits to UT he somehow becomes a 3 star. I attribute this to the writers who make up these rankings and their "unwaveringly neutral" thought process that "if Alabama or Georgia got him, he must be good" or "he must not be that good if he committed to Tennessee."

 

[Joe Dirt]

Since at least 2017, we’ve had a single top 10 class and it was 10th. Yet we’ve been competitive in the SEC with this staff.

Idk that that’s an honest take. We were ELITE in 2022 because the offense was unstoppable. But in 2023 we played 5 god awful SEC teams and won 4, and played 3 good SEC teams and lost 108-37. 2021 was rough but the offense was fun.

The QB absolutely makes a huge difference, but we need more game changers at all positions to take the next step. And that involves moving out of the middle of the conference in recruiting.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

28 scholarship reductions during the term of probation, including at least two scholarships each year.
That means we are playing solitaire with a deck that is missing a couple of cards each year. Tougher to compete when you are down a player or two.
Rumor is that we have already got that number down to 10 as of 2024, perhaps a little more ... I'm not in the know! (Maybe SF can report a factual number.)
It also means we MUST be a little more selective than all the other teams we are competing with ...
Which also means we have been doing MORE with LESS for the last couple of years. No reason to think that will not also be the case this fall.
This should scare the bejesus out of everyone we are recruiting against. When we have as many bullets as everyone else, lookout.
Hope that cheers you up enough ... to feel good enough to get down off that ledge. :^)

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

We have reached the portion of the offseason where the casual recruiting fans show up from the far reaches of the VN badlands and bash our coaches as poor recruiters and start wanting to fire people despite the fact that we have more talent on our football team now and more talent in the commitment pipeline than we have had in a very long time. We saw what this team can do with a QB that makes good quick decisions with HH. Joe Milton was a good QB, but he was not fully capable of running our offense and we saw it sputter slightly last year. This year, we should see a product closer to what we saw in 2022 with Nico at the helm. Plus, all indications are that the defense is going to be even more improved this year. It is everyone's personal choice and right to complain, I suppose, but how can you look at the product that has been put on the field the past 3 years under Heup and these coaches and still have this much to complain about. I mean sure, nothing is perfect and there is always room to get better. However, after the incompetent boobs that cycled through this program for the past 15+ years, this coaching staff looks like a bunch of football savants by comparison. You folks need to find the joy in life and quit complaining quite so much.

You must be responding to some little devil on your shoulder rather than me, because I haven't done any of that.

First, I am not casual, except for this year, and I ADMITTED I had not kept up with recruiting this year because of life events unique to me and the hyper mobility of players. I was basically asking for info.

Second, I did not bash our coaches, in fact I have been complimentary of them in multiple comments ITT.

Third, I did not call for anyone to be fired.

Fourth, I am not sure we have "more talent" now than at points in the past, rather we have someone in Heupel who is capable of getting the talent out of his players. I will be interested in seeing where we rank on the total team talent composite for 2024 when it comes out. Heupel is the only coach we have ever had since it started (in 2015) who has overperformed (in 2022) and last year we finished basically even with where we ranked on the composite, both strong indicators of improvement.

Fifth, I was not complaining. I don't know where in the hell you got that or most your post from.

 

[OffTackleVol]

You must be responding to some little devil on your shoulder rather than me, because I haven't done any of that.

First, I am not casual, except for this year, and I ADMITTED I had not kept up with recruiting this year because of life events unique to me and the hyper mobility of players. I was basically asking for info.

Second, I did not bash our coaches, in fact I have been complimentary of them in multiple comments ITT.

Third, I did not call for anyone to be fired.

Fourth, I am not sure we have "more talent" now than at points in the past, rather we have someone in Heupel who is capable of getting the talent out of his players. I will be interested in seeing where we rank on the total team talent composite for 2024 when it comes out. Heupel is the only coach we have ever had since it started (in 2015) who has overperformed (in 2022) and last year we finished basically even with where we ranked on the composite, both strong indicators of improvement.

Fifth, I was not complaining. I don't know where in the hell you got that or most your post from.

I'm not sure he was directing his post to yours. I'm thinking it may be directed to someone else's, JMO.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I'm not sure he was directing his post to yours. I'm thinking it may be directed to someone else's, JMO.

I hope so.

 

[Glitch]

You must be responding to some little devil on your shoulder rather than me, because I haven't done any of that.

First, I am not casual, except for this year, and I ADMITTED I had not kept up with recruiting this year because of life events unique to me and the hyper mobility of players. I was basically asking for info.

Second, I did not bash our coaches, in fact I have been complimentary of them in multiple comments ITT.

Third, I did not call for anyone to be fired.

Fourth, I am not sure we have "more talent" now than at points in the past, rather we have someone in Heupel who is capable of getting the talent out of his players. I will be interested in seeing where we rank on the total team talent composite for 2024 when it comes out. Heupel is the only coach we have ever had since it started (in 2015) who has overperformed (in 2022) and last year we finished basically even with where we ranked on the composite, both strong indicators of improvement.

Fifth, I was not complaining. I don't know where in the hell you got that or most your post from.

If my post didn't apply to you then I probably wasn't directing it at you.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

If my post didn't apply to you then I probably wasn't directing it at you.

I'm the OP, it just seems like alot of people are upset I even asked who else we were in on that would move us up. Sorry if I overreacted in your case.

 

[VolDC]

Truthfully there are very few elite game changers that come out of high school in each class. I've always felt like the best coaches offer the best players. Of the 30 5 stars every year, about 2/3rds are drafted. Four stars around 25% and Three stars around 5%. I think these stats really start to show the importance of identifying and developing the right players. More often than not the best schools don't get more than two 5 stars in a class. Dooley never fell out of the top 20 in class rank. Butch was always around 10. The Tuscalooser $h!+ stain that Fulmer hired recruited well with the McDonald money bags. None of that mattered. What matters is a coach and a player believing in each other, and working hard towards a goal. We saw that in action when the music shut off in Neyland during Heupel's first orange and white game. Garner set the tone that day, and I quit worrying about recruiting. Winning programs get more of the 25% four stars, and 5% three stars that get drafted.

 

[IndianaVol]

Just an observation, but it would see that a single high 3 star or 4 star recruit added to our class would shoot us from 8th to 4th.
Also, as SN-A-C Orange points out above, we have been doing more with less than the rest of those folks due to our sanctions and limitations.

28 scholarship reductions during the term of probation, including at least two scholarships each year.
That means we are playing solitaire with a deck that is missing a couple of cards each year. Tougher to compete when you are down a player or two.
Rumor is that we have already got that number down to 10 as of 2024, perhaps a little more ... I'm not in the know! (Maybe SF can report a factual number.)
It also means we MUST be a little more selective than all the other teams we are competing with ...
Which also means we have been doing MORE with LESS for the last couple of years. No reason to think that will not also be the case this fall.
This should scare the bejesus out of everyone we are recruiting against. When we have as many bullets as everyone else, lookout.
Hope that cheers you up enough ... to feel good enough to get down off that ledge. :^)

 

[onevol74]

Doesn't help much. They're not in the SEC, that team would not have won the SEC either.

Just an assumption. They beat the 2nd best SEC team on a neutral field.

 

[VolInNW]

I have admittedly paid alot less attention to recruiting this year than I normally do. Part of that is life events unique to me and part of it is the increased mobility of players making me feel like there is less of a point in keeping up with things until toe meets leather. That said, I've seen some good looking players commit here and on a Talkin Vawls. So color me surprised when I looked at the composite rankings and found us 8th in the 16 team SEC. I know we've got some folks who swear the rankings are irrelevant but I've followed them since the dawn of the internet era and I can't shake my long standing observation that over any considerable period of time the teams that recruit the best, generally tend to win the most.
View attachment 657184View attachment 657185
One good thing I see is our number of commits is on the lower end so we got room to grow if we can close stronger than those above us. So are we still in it/expected to land alot of big fish that will move us up? If so, who? The only one I know about is the Sanders kid. With kickoff around the corner, I'm starting to awake from my recruiting slumber and am behind.

Don't worry, brother. There is still plenty of time for y'all to overtake Bama and claim that #1 spot again.

 

[utvolmaniac]

28 scholarship reductions during the term of probation, including at least two scholarships each year.
That means we are playing solitaire with a deck that is missing a couple of cards each year. Tougher to compete when you are down a player or two.
Rumor is that we have already got that number down to 10 as of 2024, perhaps a little more ... I'm not in the know! (Maybe SF can report a factual number.)
It also means we MUST be a little more selective than all the other teams we are competing with ...
Which also means we have been doing MORE with LESS for the last couple of years. No reason to think that will not also be the case this fall.
This should scare the bejesus out of everyone we are recruiting against. When we have as many bullets as everyone else, lookout.
Hope that cheers you up enough ... to feel good enough to get down off that ledge. :^)

Scholarships can be substituted with $$$ in the NIL world. Just more “preferred walk-ons“ if you really think about it.

 

[vol_in_ga]

Well, I could try and make you feel better by saying guys like Radarious Jackson, Mariyon Dye, and Charles House (who inexplicably is a 86) should rise in the ratings.

Additionally - Travis Smith, David Sanders, Lagonza Heyward, and Jadon Perlotte will be committing soon and all are likely Vols. That’ll improve our ranking.

But honestly there probably isn’t much difference between the 4-15th ranked classes. It’s more about retention/development at this point.

There’s a definitive difference between 4 and 15. 4 and 8, 6 and 10, 12 and 15, not so much.

 

[vol_in_ga]

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert, but I think it's helpful to think in terms of "tiers" and not "rankings" and to use the average star rating for the whole class.

For example:
Tier 1 - AVG of 92 and up
Tier 2 - AVG of 90.1-91.9
Tier 3 - AVG of 88.9-90

This is by no means a hard science, but if you look at your screen shot the bottom 4 are basically identical - .35 separates them. Then A&M kind of sits in the middle. Then the top 3 are clearly leading the pack.

I fully believe that as long as a team can sustain Tier 2 (or better obviously) and actually develop and fill their needs then they are capable of making the playoffs and winning at an elite level. Of course the higher you go the more the deck is stacked in your favor and a team with a 4 year AVG of 92.5 will almost certainly have a physical edge against a team with a 4 year AVG of 91. But with the transfer portal the 4 year AVG is quickly becoming less reliable.

I did the research to prove it once, it’s in this forum somewhere. Rankings don’t mean near as much as average player rating. And it’s a cumulative thing, not a player by player thing. Basically, stockpile perceived talent and the busts don’t hurt and the overall product is top notch across the board. Talent does generally (unless your Osu) win championships in college. 92 and up and there’s no excuses for not winning the big one, at some point.

 

[vol_in_ga]

I think 8-12 is where we need to be. It’s a bit unrealistic to be at 4, given where things are now. And in all fairness, the staff seems perfectly content on sprinkling in portalers, which help with the overall ranking.

I’d like to see us consistently in the top 10 and land one top 3 class at some point. It’s very doable with the requisite on field success. Wish we had the talent pool and recruiting staff uga had where they could sell the dream team and all of a sudden it’s back to back to back top 3 classes, but doesn’t seem so. So on field success and gotta build the momentum. We go 10-2 with some BIG wins and then 9-3 with losses to the 3 main modern day rivals (Bama/uf/uga). Id say double digit win reg season back to back, or have a conference championship appearance, or even a playoff semifinal run, should push us over hurdle.

 

[Volfan76]

Which ones are part of the “several”?

Rather than argue about who is "bad", how about naming our elite recruiters not named rodney garner?

 

[FiremedicVOL127]

I got a feeling our 5 QB is going to drop a little after dropping out of the elite 11 contest.

Our 5️ QB will drop in the next rankings cause he committed to UT……. The elite 11 will be used as the excuse for it. Combine both and he will likely end up a 3️

 

[LouderVol]

We are 6th in the SEC now. Up from 8. With just one new commitment. Like I said there isn't a ton of difference between classes at the moment. and the guys we are in on are highly ranked.

We have a higher average than the #5 school, and only one school has the same of fewer commitments as us.

July should continue to be good for the vols

 

[SoullessGinger32_]

It's only middle of July . In about 5 to 6 weeks this thread will be completely irrelevant