Here Comes the Recession

[MontyPython]

I didn’t realize Japanese schools produced goods.

Come on Hog. What happens to either the mom or dad who works? Now they have an 8 year old at home every day. They'll have to leave work for a month. Also, lots of affected school employees and associated businesses.

Similarly, do you really think this is gonna just stop at schools closing? Everything... work places, restaurants, auto shops, coffee houses... everything could have people not aggregating in public places.

 

[theFallGuy]

we are not in a recession. This is just panic selling by people concerned about corona. Selling everything right now is stupid. If anything you should be buying cheap shares.

 

[hog88]

Come on Hog. What happens to either the mom or dad who works? Now they have an 8 year old at home every day. They'll have to leave work for a month. Also, lots of affected school employees and associated businesses.

Similarly, do you really think this is gonna just stop at schools closing? Everything... work places, restaurants, auto shops, coffee houses... everything could have people not aggregating in public places.

Or have granny or aunt or friend or another family member watch the ankle biters.

I know your cheering for a recession or anything to hurt Trump but just remember all the people that will really be hurt.

 

[theFallGuy]

Major bank economist says the coronavirus market reaction ‘boggles the mind’

 

[MontyPython]

Or have granny or aunt or friend or another family member watch the ankle biters.

I know your cheering for a recession or anything to hurt Trump but just remember all the people that will really be hurt.

Recessions happen. They are inevitable. A natural course of free markets. GREED / FEAR in financial markets.

Trump cheered the stock market on, claimed to be responsible for it, and now...

Failure is an orphan.

 

[hog88]

Recessions happen. They are inevitable. A natural course of free markets. GREED / FEAR in financial markets.

Trump cheered the stock market on, claimed to be responsible for it, and now...

Failure is an orphan.

Hasn't failed yet.

 

[MontyPython]

Hasn't failed yet.

All the financial markets are precursors for the economy.

Saudis Arabia literally just closed Mecca and Medina.

Recession is coming.

 

[hog88]

All the financial markets are precursors for the economy.

Saudis Arabia literally just closed Mecca and Medina.

Recession is coming.

It might be and again it might not.

 

[MontyPython]

It might be and again it might not.

Our supply chain dependency on Cina alone would trigger a recession here if this situation continues for much longer.

"Chinese manufacturing activity slowed at record pace in February, confirming the impact of the novel coronavirus on the world’s second largest economy.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 35.7 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday.

A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

This is the lowest reading since January 2005 when it was first released. The second lowest was 38.8 in November 2008, during the global financial crisis."

 

[hog88]

Our supply chain dependency on Cina alone would trigger a recession here if this situation continues for much longer.

"Chinese manufacturing activity slowed at record pace in February, confirming the impact of the novel coronavirus on the world’s second largest economy.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 35.7 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday.

A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

This is the lowest reading since January 2005 when it was first released. The second lowest was 38.8 in November 2008, during the global financial crisis."

If a recession does come it will be short and we will deal with it. What we cannot do again is have a recession and elect a dem to deal with it.

 

[MontyPython]

If a recession does come it will be short and we will deal with it. What we cannot do again is have a recession and elect a dem to deal with it.

Ha!

The last time we elected a Democrat, he inherited an economic disaster created by a Republican administration... and how'd that turn out?

See chart below note the stock market from January 2009 through January 2017.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Ha!

The last time we elected a Democrat, he inherited an economic disaster created by a Republican administration... and how'd that turn out?

See chart below note the stock market from January 2009 through January 2017.

View attachment 263777

The stock market is very different from the economy. There are many economic measurements that show how bad BHO's administration managed it.

The "economic disaster" can be traced back to Bubba and Barney promoting giving out mortgages to anybody and everybody whether qualified or not.

There's not a lot that any POTUS can do other than tax policy that will generate immediate results. There are often lags of many years.

BHO doubled the debt (and half of the interest on the current budget is the legacy), he benefited from multiple rounds of QE and historically low interest rate policy. Plus he let defense spending fall behind. No, Barry didn't do a very good job with the economy. Off shore manufacuring accelerated, businesses limited hiring to stay within the Obamacare parameters, and those on government assistance didn't trend down until he was gone.

 

[FLVOL69]

Dems don't want to kill the economy. Dems want the growth to benefit the middle class much more than it has so far. 401k growth is nice, to be sire. But it pales compared to the benefits to the billionaires to date. Let's get some REAL wage growth and some sustained consumer demand.

And here I thought you had no sense of humor!

 

[AM64]

Are these readings pre or post Coronavirus crisis?

Most of China is still shutdown. Even though some plants are back to work, there’s no supply chain to move goods at port. This will reverberate through the economy for at least half a year.

Unfortunately it still won't be a wake up call for globalists who decided putting all their eggs in one basket made economic sense.

 

[VolStrom]

Unfortunately it still won't be a wake up call for globalists who decided putting all their eggs in one basket made economic sense.

Unfortunately I think the government is going to have to force companies to diversify products that the nation depends on, like drugs, healthcare items, basic parts for the military. The list is endless.

 

[AM64]

Unfortunately I think the government is going to have to force companies to diversify products that the nation depends on, like drugs, healthcare items, basic parts for the military. The list is endless.

I'd hope that somebody sees reason. It's hard to imagine a real next enemy not being China. We may build aircraft, for example; but we aren't going to do that without the raw materials like metals, electronic components, etc. Somebody pointed out somewhere recently that as China's economy passes ours, Chinese propensity to take advantage of their strength and go on the offensive increases. Isolation by ocean will only go so far if we can't produce what we need. This is a strategic issue far more than an economic/investment issue.

 

[VolStrom]

Trump was trying to open people's eyes to what many people that were affected already saw, that we sold manufacturing out for the ability of companies to make a quick buck and pass the consequences on to the next generation. Well, guess what? The next generation is here and the problems are very real. I hope Trump gets re-elected and he starts putting the screws to the greedy corporations to make the stuff vital to our country here and not in a communist state. It's one thing to get something from the UK or Mexico and quite another to get it from Russia or China.

 

[AM64]

You need to lock in those losses like monty! I used to get antsy about days like this but anymore I just watch other people fret about them and go about my day. I've lived through some of the worst days in stock market history and within a few years everything was back to normal. 1987 crash, dot com crash, the great recession. After everyone of these downturns I watched as my returns went from ugly to sweet without touching anything.

Even the retirement fund RMD for tax purposes is a mixed blessing during market dips ... smaller, but at the same less taxable income for next year. If you actually need a distribution, though, you are kinda screwed.

 

[happy-go_vol]

Non sequitur. Trump's budgeted expenses exceed revenue by over a trillion/annually.

Great. Plan.

Comedy coming from the ignorance base.

 

[AM64]

I can't remember when I bought it. Maybe around 10 years ago. I think I've done better with MasterCard bought around that time. Blackrock and Home Depot have been good to me. 2 of my largest holdings.

I've heard a few people swear by Dollar General ... but that hasn't been recent, but they had a good point about how Dollar General does fine when the economy is good and still well when it isn't.

 

[VolStrom]

I've heard a few people swear by Dollar General ... but that hasn't been recent, but they had a good point about how Dollar General does fine when the economy is good and still well when it isn't.

Dollar General has to be in debt up to its eyeballs because they put one on every corner in rural areas. Personally I can't recall ever going into one, maybe I would like it I don't know?

 

[AM64]

Dollar General has to be in debt up to its eyeballs because they put one on every corner in rural areas. Personally I can't recall ever going into one, maybe I would like it I don't know?

There are always cars parked in front of those rural Dollar Generals ... almost seem to be the only store in town for many - almost a captive audience for quick grocery shopping.

 

[AM64]

Dollar General has to be in debt up to its eyeballs because they put one on every corner in rural areas. Personally I can't recall ever going into one, maybe I would like it I don't know?

I bought my parents old house in a very small town; I might go to the Dollar General rather than drive 15 miles to something better for an emergency dozen eggs or loaf of bread. Here, we do most of our grocery shopping at Publix and Sam's or Costco - there, I've got a PX and commissary about 20 min away, and still a Sam's at least in Murfreesboro. We've always kept a full pantry, refrigerators, and freezers, though ... probably a lot different than most people.

 

[RavinDave]

I'd hope that somebody sees reason. It's hard to imagine a real next enemy not being China. We may build aircraft, for example; but we aren't going to do that without the raw materials like metals, electronic components, etc. Somebody pointed out somewhere recently that as China's economy passes ours, Chinese propensity to take advantage of their strength and go on the offensive increases. Isolation by ocean will only go so far if we can't produce what we need. This is a strategic issue far more than an economic/investment issue.

One has to wonder at the level of greed and/or ignorance that got the USA into the position of being so dependent upon China (and to a lesser extent India) for manufacturing so much of what we need in this country, from steel to electronics to the key ingredients in our pharmaceuticals.

I started reading The Hundred Year Marathon a while back... need to pick it back up.

 

[VolStrom]

One has to wonder at the level of greed and/or ignorance that got the USA into the position of being so dependent upon China (and to a lesser extent India) for manufacturing so much of what we need in this country, from steel to electronics to the key ingredients in our pharmaceuticals.

I started reading The Hundred Year Marathon a while back... need to pick it back up.

Just look at how much the rich people have amassed in the last 20 years. The top .1% is worth more than the entire lower 80%. I'm all for rewarding people, but the tables have turned against the people that work for a living.