Here Comes the Recession

#176
#176
MontyPython said:
The economic expansion may be coming to an end, if the bond market tea leaves are correct. Last summer, For the first time since the financial crisis, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below the two-year yield, a pricing anomaly known as a “yield curve inversion”. Only once since 1950 has the yield difference become negative and a recession has NOT shortly ensued.

Obviously, the economy is really the only thing propping up Trump for potential re-election this Fall. If the economic dominoes tumble, buh bye.

If it's gonna happen, hopefully it will be short and not too severe. It's been a huge positive run since the crash of 2008/9.

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You must be pretty excited about this down turn. I guess your welfare never changes whether the economy is up or down.
 
#177
#177
lawgator1 said:
Dems don't want to kill the economy. Dems want the growth to benefit the middle class much more than it has so far. 401k growth is nice, to be sire. But it pales compared to the benefits to the billionaires to date. Let's get some REAL wage growth and some sustained consumer demand.
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So you marxists' plan to give some welfare check disguised as a universal income? You could tax billionaires 95% of their total income and it will not help the middle class or change anything. This envy that you marxists have on successful people is sad.
 
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#181
#181
MontyPython said:
FWIW I'm not "hoping for" a recession. But, the reality is that our economy experiences them as a normal cycle. It's not a question of IF a recession will eventually occur, but WHEN. Better now before the election than after.
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You should probably work on your presentation.

MontyPython said:
The economic expansion may be coming to an end, if the bond market tea leaves are correct. Last summer, For the first time since the financial crisis, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below the two-year yield, a pricing anomaly known as a “yield curve inversion”. Only once since 1950 has the yield difference become negative and a recession has NOT shortly ensued.

Obviously, the economy is really the only thing propping up Trump for potential re-election this Fall. If the economic dominoes tumble, buh bye.

If it's gonna happen, hopefully it will be short and not too severe. It's been a huge positive run since the crash of 2008/9.

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There's a huge difference between "The economy runs in cycles, and I sure am worried about all those people living on the edge of stability. They'll eat asphalt if and when it crashes"...

And...


"All indications are that it's coming, and when it does... BUH BYE Trump!"

Buh-bye doesn't give any indication at all that your post was more about kicking Trump's ass out than worry about the poor that will pay for an economic belly-up.
 
#182
#182
Girth Brooks said:
Now apply that cyclical argument to climate change.

Your last sentence is a perfect portrayal of the state of your party—you need the economy to fail to even have a chance at winning, in which it would then be wrecked beyond repair.
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Let a conservative use that same logic about Ruth Ginsberg. "She'll die some time. Better for us if it's before we lose power so we can take advantage."

And, of course, this blows the "not hoping it tanks" argument out of the water.
 
#183
#183
lawgator1 said:
The key is to keep the House and win the Senate with a Dem president, then immediately get to work restoring some sanity to taxation policy.
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Yah, Give Bernie both houses. What "sanity" are you talking about? 77% tax rate to pay for all the freebies?
 
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#185
#185
McDad said:
I've seen you have several spirited discussions with LG through the years. I can't recall a more thorough whopping than you are giving him right now. Your stuff supports your claim. His stuff supports your claim. The former president taking credit tacitly supports your claim. I wonder if LG will simply give up or will he keep digging a deeper hole?
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Soros doesn't pay him to quit!
 
#190
#190
1972 Grad said:
I got lightened of over 20 grand today. Thank goodness I have bond funds too, or it would have been really bad.
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You need to lock in those losses like monty! I used to get antsy about days like this but anymore I just watch other people fret about them and go about my day. I've lived through some of the worst days in stock market history and within a few years everything was back to normal. 1987 crash, dot com crash, the great recession. After everyone of these downturns I watched as my returns went from ugly to sweet without touching anything.
 
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#191
#191
VolStrom said:
You need to lock in those losses like monty! I used to get antsy about days like this but anymore I just watch other people fret about them and go about my day. I've lived through some of the worst days in stock market history and within a few years everything was back to normal. 1987 crash, dot com crash, the great recession. After everyone of these downturns I watched as my returns went from ugly to sweet without touching anything.
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As long as you don’t sell it off it’s not a loss when it comes back . That’s the best way I figured out how to deal with it . Lol
 
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#196
#196
GAVol said:
Bingo... I don’t know what the stock market will do tomorrow, but I know that in 5, 10 and 15 years, it will be higher.
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Owning Caterpillar stock will teach you some great lessons over the years , if you’ll just let it do it’s thing and don’t panic .
 
#197
#197
MontyPython said:
Anyone lighten up on your holdings yet? If no, what are you waiting for?
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Nobody can pick the absolute tops and bottoms. I do think that this pullback hasn't hit it's bottom at just 5% or so.

With so much cash on the sidelines and no good alternatives to invest in, I'm expecting US equities to keep running up. 2020 earnings should be better than 2019's. Other than the UK, foreign equities don't look attractive. Maybe EMs, but the EU is a mess. Canada might be decent despite the Frenchy liberals mucking it up.
 
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#198
#198
0nelilreb said:
Owning Caterpillar stock will teach you some great lessons over the years , if you’ll just let it do it’s thing and don’t panic .
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CAT hasn't been the best place to be while the US$ is strong and China's economic growth flattens. But most of the damage to the stock price is probably behind us. I like Deere for the agriculture exposure. As long as our trade negotiators pressure China to buy more US goods if they want to have access to the US consumer, it bodes well for the AG industry.
 
#199
#199
Thunder Good-Oil said:
CAT hasn't been the best place to be while the US$ is strong and China's economic growth flattens. But most of the damage to the stock price is probably behind us. I like Deere for the agriculture exposure. As long as our trade negotiators pressure China to buy more US goods if they want to have access to the US consumer, it bodes well for the AG industry.
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I know I piss a lot of people off, but I always compare the S&P 500 index fund to everyones pick O the day. If anyone here can beat the S&P 500 index over the last 10 years I'd like to hear about it.
 
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#200
#200
VolStrom said:
I know I piss a lot of people off, but I always compare the S&P 500 index fund to everyones pick O the day. If anyone here can beat the S&P 500 index over the last 10 years I'd like to hear about it.
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Some can but it's mostly luck. It's not wise to be concentrated in any individual security, but that's what it would take to outperform a market index. You can buy funds that mirror those averages, but funds, especially large ones, have to also include the crappy companies.
 
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