Here Comes the Recession

#578
#578
lawgator1 said:
Well, the fed has no ammo left.
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Not entirely. It can actually move rates into negative territory like Japan Switzerland Denmark and Sweden. Can also pump more liquidity. Or helicopter airdrop $. Wish I were making this sh*t up.

Not sure where the bottom is but suspect it's definitely sub 20K.

Down 2K. Up 2K. Tomorrow could be down 3K. We've never experienced a situation where society approaches virtual shut down. The potential GDP quarterly shrinkage could be monstrous... like 10% or 15%. Unheard of. But possible.

Crazy whiplash. Will eventually be a great buying opportunity though. I think concerns here are way overblown, and the virus will probably dissipate with warmer weather.
 
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#579
#579
MontyPython said:
Not entirely. It can actually move rates into negative territory like Japan Switzerland Denmark and Sweden. Can also pump more liquidity. Or helicopter airdrop $. Wish I were making this sh*t up.

Not sure where the bottom is but suspect it's definitely sub 20K.

Down 2K. Up 2K. Tomorrow could be down 3K. We've never experienced a situation where society approaches virtual shut down. The potential GDP quarterly shrinkage could be monstrous... like 10%. Unheard of. But possible.

Crazy whiplash. Will eventually be a great buying opportunity though.
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10-15k seems likely at this point if there are orders to shut everything down and stay inside.
 
#580
#580
lawgator1 said:
10-15k seems likely at this point if there are orders to shut everything down and stay inside.
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That would be so irrational. It's not the black plague. But the fear in people right now is for real. Holy sh*tballs my local Trader Joe's, people were insane the other day.

But again... I think it will all pass over in a month or two max.

I'd back up the truck if/when we hit 18K. Markets will pop back quickly... if it's just an ephemeral thing I think it is.
 
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#584
#584
VolStrom said:
You democrats are crapping your pants you are so giddy with glee that the "Trump" economy is crashing. Congrats.
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I'm 56. I'm not happy at all that the market is crashing and do not think in the end that the election will turn on it as it has in the past. The irony is that after this people are going to be thinking about the thin line between themselves and calamity. Programs that represent a safety net, like SS and Medicare are going to be on people's minds. And there is ample evidence of Trump's hostility to them.

Easy target.

But not because of the markets.
 
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#585
#585
lawgator1 said:
I'm 56. I'm not happy at all that the market is crashing and do not think in the end that the election will turn on it as it has in the past. The irony is that after this people are going to be thinking about the thin line between themselves and calamity. Programs that represent a safety net, like SS and Medicare are going to be on people's minds. And there is ample evidence of Trump's hostility to them.

Easy target.

But not because of the markets.
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Trump is going to use martial law to suspend all future Medicare and SS benefits.
 
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#588
#588
SpaceCoastVol said:
this entire thing is contrived and stupid.

When this is done... IF this virus has a low mortality rate, they should start setting up guillotines for governments worldwide.
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This. It's a bad virus yes. Old and frail people will die. But not by the millions. Not by the hundred thousands.

Things will stabilize. In a year we'll have a vaccine.

The next couple weeks will be surreal though.

By election time, btw, I don't think this will be a factor other than a lower stock market (versus start of year perhaps) and fact that Trump bumbled through it (like everything else).

But, yeah, overall this will take the shine off of the Trump mystique. He will lose... badly. President Biden in office in 10 months.
 
#590
#590
VolStrom said:
So the economy was doing poorly along with the stock market until democrats came to our rescue and did what exactly?
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Not sure what you mean but I'm under no illusion that the Democrats, today, have a cure for our new economic virus.
 
#591
#591
SpaceCoastVol said:
this entire thing is contrived and stupid.

When this is done... IF this virus has a low mortality rate, they should start setting up guillotines for governments worldwide.
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Yes, by all means, threaten the people who are trying to understand something novel with death in case they are wrong.

Would you support the execution of Trump because a week ago he said the flu was worse, if in fact CV is worse?
 
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#592
#592
lawgator1 said:
Yes, by all means, threaten the people who are trying to understand something novel with death in case they are wrong.

Would you support the execution of Trump because a week ago he said the flu was worse, if in fact CV is worse?
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Like it or not it’s Trump’s responsibility to, while being as serious as he can, maintain calm and an air of confidence it is under control. Using of course that unique Trump style and grace that has made you bat **** crazy for three years plus now. If he had freaked out you’d be criticizing him. Him saying it’s under control, you criticize him. Face it ... you’re just going to criticize him. He will own this regardless how it ends. And if we skate by it’s going to be a huge feather in his hat and major cred for November, regardless of any smear or disinformation campaign the left attempts. If instead it blows up and we see a large number of fatalities then it’s a major talking point for the left whether he deserves it or not. It’s big boy and girl politics and I’m pretty sure he gets it.

Edit: and I’m pretty damn sure I quoted the wrong post 🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️
 
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#594
#594
NorthDallas40 said:
Like it or not it’s Trump’s responsibility to, while being as serious as he can, maintain calm and an air of confidence it is under control. Using of course that unique Trump style and grace that has made you bat **** crazy for three years plus now. If he had freaked out you’d be criticizing him. Him saying it’s under control, you criticize him. Face it ... you’re just going to criticize him. He will own this regardless how it ends. And if we skate by it’s going to be a huge feather in his hat and major cred for November, regardless of any smear or disinformation campaign the left attempts. If instead it blows up and we see a large number of fatalities then it’s a major talking point for the left whether he deserves it or not. It’s big boy and girl politics and I’m pretty sure he gets it.

Edit: and I’m pretty damn sure I quoted the wrong post 🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️
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Fair enough.

But when the professionals and the scientists in government daily say there will be an explosion in cases, deaths, and burden on the system, followed by Trump within minutes each day saying its blown out of proportion, it's pretty easy to see the problem, REGARDLESS of the outcome:

Trump keeps talking about things he knows nothing about. In meteorology they call it "wishcasting," which is exactly what he does every day..
 
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#595
#595
lawgator1 said:
Fair enough.

But when the professionals and the scientists in government daily say there will be an explosion in cases, deaths, and burden on the system, followed by Trump within minutes each day saying its blown out of proportion, it's pretty easy to see the problem, REGARDLESS of the outcome:

Trump keeps talking about things he knows nothing about. In meteorology they call it "wishcasting," which is exactly what he does every day..
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They aren’t all saying that. Just the ones that he fired or don’t like him and those are quite plentiful.
 
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#596
#596
lawgator1 said:
Fair enough.

But when the professionals and the scientists in government daily say there will be an explosion in cases, deaths, and burden on the system, followed by Trump within minutes each day saying its blown out of proportion, it's pretty easy to see the problem, REGARDLESS of the outcome:

Trump keeps talking about things he knows nothing about. In meteorology they call it "wishcasting," which is exactly what he does every day..
Click to expand...

Looks like you two have a lot in common then.
 
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#598
#598
Holy sh*tballs. This is insane. Coming to a town near you...

Massachusetts bans eating and drinking at bars and restaurants until at least April 17
From CNN's Laura Ly

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced Sunday that he is "banning all on-premises eating and drinking at all restaurants and bars throughout the state, but will still allow establishments to offer food for takeout or delivery."
"Establishments must also follow the social distancing protocols set forth in the Department of Public Health guidance," Baker said.
The order goes into effect Tuesday and will be in effect until at least April 17, Baker said.
Baker also said he is prohibiting gatherings of more than 25 people.
"Subject to this order, these gatherings include all community, civic, public, leisure, faith-based events sporting events with spectators, concerts, conventions, and any similar event or activity that brings together 25 or more people in a single room or a single space at the same time. This includes venues like fitness centers, private clubs and theaters," Baker said.​
 
#599
#599
MontyPython said:
Holy sh*tballs. This is insane. Coming to a town near you...

Massachusetts bans eating and drinking at bars and restaurants until at least April 17
From CNN's Laura Ly

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced Sunday that he is "banning all on-premises eating and drinking at all restaurants and bars throughout the state, but will still allow establishments to offer food for takeout or delivery."
"Establishments must also follow the social distancing protocols set forth in the Department of Public Health guidance," Baker said.
The order goes into effect Tuesday and will be in effect until at least April 17, Baker said.
Baker also said he is prohibiting gatherings of more than 25 people.
"Subject to this order, these gatherings include all community, civic, public, leisure, faith-based events sporting events with spectators, concerts, conventions, and any similar event or activity that brings together 25 or more people in a single room or a single space at the same time. This includes venues like fitness centers, private clubs and theaters," Baker said.​
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Massachusetts said "I'll see your ban on gatherings of 50 CDC and lower it to 25!"

Hope all those folks got a little savings to live on. They're putting folks out of work.
 
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