Hurricane Ike and Its Impact on Coastal Texas

#1
TennTradition

TennTradition

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#1
Well...it looks like Texas is getting ready to take a big hit. I've posted a few things in the Pub about it..but I thought that I would start a thread here. The storm surge could be ridiculous with this thing...I'm particularly worried that about 20,000 people chose to stay on Galveston Island...they better hope this thing doesn't take a jog to the south.

15-20 ft. surges all the way up into Galveston Bay and the east side of Houston...20+ ft. storm surges possible around Port Arthur.....Galveston Island...around a 15 ft. surge.....looks like it is going to be a bad night.

The only positive I see is that it looks to me like their may be some drier air between the storm and landfall...which could lead to some weakening...though that's not being forecast (I think that it is actually forecast to strengthen a little). If it does weaken, it won't be much though...it's a big system...it would take a lot of dry air to start breaking it up. This hurricane is huge...it's bigger than Katrina was in diameter...and Katrina was big.
 
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#2
#2
I'm particularly worried about the disruptions of refinery operations...here's one of my posts from the pub...

Here's a map that shows some of the refinery situation. The refineries on the east side of Houston...and those in Port Arthur are the ones I'm concerned about...I'm not sure what their throughput is though..I'll try to figure that out. The refineries near Port Arthur are protected by a 14 ft. seawall...but a surge of 20+ ft in that area will swallow that wall up.....it isn't so much actual damage of the refineries that concerns me...but just people being able to get to and from them from an operations standpoint...surely their protected from the water.....right?

Refineries in Houston and Port Arthur.jpg
 
#3
#3
To complete my movement of my posts from the pub to this thread (man...wish I were a mod :) )....

I'm not saying that you should run for the hills (with regard to upward pressure on the price of gas)...but we really are just beginning to see the effects of this storm. It is very possible that there could be a good hiccup in the system (at the refinery level) for several days that could make a big impact on prices. Galveston is already seeing a lot of flooding (12 hours before landfall) and if the hurricane takes the track they think it will, it'll march right up Galveston Bay, hitting the east side of Houston hard. Port Arthur could see storm surges of 20+ feet ... and add waves of about 25-30 ft. to that....that could be serious.

This whole area is like one big water catcher ... the shape is horrible from a surge standpoint...it could be a rough night for these guys. If the storm will just jog about 20-30 miles more to the northeast we could see a much better situation...
 
#4
#4
Anything named after Ike Turner is gonna tear some sh** up!
 
#6
#6
Well, those people should have evacuated by now? The bright light about Ike vs. Katrina is that these areas aren't sitting below sea level. Other than that this looks bad, Ike is stronger than Katrina.

Drudge is showing the best picture of it.

capt.f8ddb3a24cf841cb9fba22997cca5f93.tropical_weather_hurricane_ike_ny111.jpg


the rings this thing is throwing out are crazy.
 
#7
#7
MontereyVol said:
Well, those people should have evacuated by now? The bright light about Ike vs. Katrina is that these areas aren't sitting below sea level. Other than that this looks bad, Ike is stronger than Katrina.

Drudge is showing the best picture of it.

capt.f8ddb3a24cf841cb9fba22997cca5f93.tropical_weather_hurricane_ike_ny111.jpg


the rings this thing is throwing out are crazy.
Click to expand...

That is an amazing picture. The folks who haven't left Galveston island don't have that much longer to do it. The roads will be impassable by this afternoon for a lot of the areas...so unless they're going to boat across the intercoastal, I'm not sure they'll get across. I honestly can't believe 50% of the people stayed on Galveston island.

The point you brought up about this area not being a bowl is a good one...at least the waters will recede after the surge is over. The problem is the storm is so big that the surge will last a very long time...
 
#8
#8
Wind will not be a huge issue -- except in downtown Houston. This storm is going to do major damage from the storm surge. Hopefully, this thing jogs more to the right. That will make a huge difference.
 
#9
#9
Katrina wasn't devastating because it was powerful. It was devastating because it hit NO, which had a disaster waiting to happen for a levee system.

That, coupled with the fact that people were too stupid to leave, made it a catastrophe.

The SE TX region can actually shed the water once the surge is over and folks can get back to their lives without bitching that the government isn't giving them enough free stuff.
 
#10
#10
BigPapaVol said:
Katrina wasn't devastating because it was powerful. It was devastating because it hit NO, which had a disaster waiting to happen for a levee system.

That, coupled with the fact that people were too stupid to leave, made it a catastrophe.

The SE TX region can actually shed the water once the surge is over and folks can get back to their lives without bitching that the government isn't giving them enough free stuff.
Click to expand...

That's the light at the end of this tunnel for sure.
 
#11
#11
BigPapaVol said:
Katrina wasn't devastating because it was powerful. It was devastating because it hit NO, which had a disaster waiting to happen for a levee system.

That, coupled with the fact that people were too stupid to leave, made it a catastrophe.

The SE TX region can actually shed the water once the surge is over and folks can get back to their lives without bitching that the government isn't giving them enough free stuff.
Click to expand...

nice.
 
#12
#12
TennTradition said:
That is an amazing picture. The folks who haven't left Galveston island don't have that much longer to do it. The roads will be impassable by this afternoon for a lot of the areas...so unless they're going to boat across the intercoastal, I'm not sure they'll get across. I honestly can't believe 50% of the people stayed on Galveston island.
Click to expand...

Well, its happened before and the biggest problem was the lack of warning.

ap_galves19006_050922_ssh.jpg


The point you brought up about this area not being a bowl is a good one...at least the waters will recede after the surge is over. The problem is the storm is so big that the surge will last a very long time...
Click to expand...

Watch out... you are going to turn this into a political fight!!
 
#14
#14
BigPapaVol said:
Katrina wasn't devastating because it was powerful. It was devastating because it hit NO, which had a disaster waiting to happen for a levee system.

That, coupled with the fact that people were too stupid to leave, made it a catastrophe.

The SE TX region can actually shed the water once the surge is over and folks can get back to their lives without bitching that the government isn't giving them enough free stuff.
Click to expand...

Also, the local government seems to be more competent.
 
#15
#15
MontereyVol said:
Well, its happened before and the biggest problem was the lack of warning.
Click to expand...

Well....they were certainly warned this time...and surely houses are built better now with better storm walls. They haven't gone through this since 1983, though...so it isn't that fresh in a lot of minds.


MontereyVol said:
Watch out... you are going to turn this into a political fight!!
Click to expand...

Oops... :) .... I kept on thinking that every time I wrote "the surge."
 
#18
#18
MontereyVol said:
Other than that this looks bad, Ike is stronger than Katrina.
Click to expand...

I don't think it is, not yet anyway.

Wikipedia

Among recorded hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall and the third strongest to make a landfall in the United States. The storm weakened before making its second landfall as a Category 3 storm on the morning of Monday, August 29 in southeast Louisiana. Katrina made its second landfall at 6:10 a.m. CDT[3] on Monday, August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana. At landfall, hurricane-force winds extended outward 120 miles (190 km) from the center and the storm's central pressure was 920 mbar. After moving over southeastern Louisiana and Breton Sound, it made its third landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border with 120 mph (195 km/h) sustained winds, still at Category 3 intensity.
Click to expand...
 
#22
#22
Gcrop said:
I don't think it is, not yet anyway.
Click to expand...

You are right as far as wind speed goes...and I really don't think that this storm is even going to strengthen to a Cat 3...it will stay around 100 mph, IMO. But, in other terms it is "stronger"....it is even bigger in size and radius of hurricane force winds and because of geography...the storm surge is expected to be even higher. Thankfully, it will recede away fairly quickly...
 
#23
#23
Gcrop said:
I don't think it is, not yet anyway.
Click to expand...

My bad, I am not trying to confuse the issue (I work with a bunch of METOC weenies), Its not the same strength as Katrina. But the structure of Ike is stronger, meaning it has the ability to stay longer and cause more damage.
 
#24
#24
Storm surge predictions are not improving...Baytown (think huge refineries) could see a 25+ ft storm surge (yellow)...though it looks like that prediction is just to their west. Baytown is closer to a 20+ ft prediction (brown)...still crazy...

Storm Surge Predictions.jpg
 
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