Hurricane Ike and Its Impact on Coastal Texas

#31
#31
The pressure is crashing to the west of the hurricane and it's actually beginning to wrap it's bands fully around the western eyewall - not a good sign. It went over the eastern edge of a very warm water eddy...and apparently it has begun just tracking more west, staying over it and maybe strengthening a quite a bit (it certainly is better organized now and has a visible eye for the first time in days)..we'll see here in about 15 minutes when the advisory comes out what the wind speed is.

The fact that the pressure is crashing just south of Galveston really makes one worry that it's heading that way (it's like water flowing down the path of least resistance). That would be an even worse case scenario for Houston and Galveston...they would get smashed by the eastern eyewall. Hopefully Ike jogs back north again soon, like it was expected to do.
 
#33
#33
TennTradition said:
The pressure is crashing to the west of the hurricane and it's actually beginning to wrap it's bands fully around the western eyewall - not a good sign. It went over the eastern edge of a very warm water eddy...and apparently it has begun just tracking more west, staying over it and maybe strengthening a quite a bit (it certainly is better organized now and has a visible eye for the first time in days)..we'll see here in about 15 minutes when the advisory comes out what the wind speed is.

The fact that the pressure is crashing just south of Galveston really makes one worry that it's heading that way (it's like water flowing down the path of least resistance). That would be an even worse case scenario for Houston and Galveston...they would get smashed by the eastern eyewall. Hopefully Ike jogs back north again soon, like it was expected to do.
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dude, you have rolled right into full on weather geek mode.
 
#35
#35
BigPapaVol said:
dude, you have rolled right into full on weather geek mode.
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I know...I can't help it...I've been a weather geek as long as I can remember...I would tell some stories but they're so sad I don't think I will :)

....love the meteorology though.....can't deny that.
 
#39
#39
This is the first hurricane I've followed this closely - seems like a dangerous one. Though it's only a Category 2, it's a HUGE system and will sit right on the coast for awhile. I'm thinking they might be underestimating how much damage will happen in Houston.
 
#40
#40
By brother lives just north of Houston. They are hunkering down and getting ready. Should hit them in the middle of the night tonight.
 
#41
#41
VolinArizona said:
This is the first hurricane I've followed this closely - seems like a dangerous one. Though it's only a Category 2, it's a HUGE system and will sit right on the coast for awhile. I'm thinking they might be underestimating how much damage will happen in Houston.
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It's gotta pack some hellacious winds to be a hammer that far inland. They will likely get some localized flooding, but it's not going to be Katrina redux.
 
#42
#42
BigPapaVol said:
It's gotta pack some hellacious winds to be a hammer that far inland. They will likely get some localized flooding, but it's not going to be Katrina redux.
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Good news on the wind front is that the cloud tops look to be cooling now. The eye is more organized, which suggests strengthening...but cooling cloud tops are indicative of weakening....plus the waters will actually get colder from this point forward.

I don't think that the winds are going to be the problem....but the surge will be very high...even all the way up to the Houston shipping lane.
 
#43
#43
TennTradition said:
Good news on the wind front is that the cloud tops look to be cooling now. The eye is more organized, which suggests strengthening...but cooling cloud tops are indicative of weakening....plus the waters will actually get colder from this point forward.
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waa-wa-waaa-wa-waaa-waa-wa (in my best Popeye character voice).
 
#44
#44
BigPapaVol said:
waa-wa-waaa-wa-waaa-waa-wa (in my best Popeye character voice).
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nice....

....on a less funny note, here's an updated track (minus any potential wobbling that could make a big difference at this point)...the track is not good ... this puts galveston right on the eastern eye-wall.

Updated Track.gif
 
#47
#47
TennTradition said:
Absolutely...they have to hope for a wobble to the north now...it's happened in the past...it happened with Rita...
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goodness, you just talked about an old hurricane like an old girlfriend.

do you crank up the internet sometimes and surf old hurricane vids?
 
#49
#49
BigPapaVol said:
goodness, you just talked about an old hurricane like an old girlfriend.

do you crank up the internet sometimes and surf old hurricane vids?
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So..I used to have volumes of hurricane footage from when I was a kid or in high school..but I had my mom throw out the VHSs when I got married...kind of like burning pictures of old girlfriends. I kid....I kid.....she still has them :)

The storm is actually re-intensifying and actually has a well-defined eye now..it has blown up on the south side...which will wrap around...let's hope it makes it way around before landfall and not at landfall. But..the good news is that the storm has jogged to the north a bit...if it doesn't jog back to the west, Ike *could* hit just to the east of galveston....too many hours between now and then to tell.
 
#50
#50
TennTradition said:
So..I used to have volumes of hurricane footage from when I was a kid or in high school..but I had my mom throw out the VHSs when I got married...kind of like burning pictures of old girlfriends. I kid....I kid.....she still has them :)

The storm is actually re-intensifying and actually has a well-defined eye now. But..the good news is that the storm has jogged to the north a bit...if it doesn't jog back to the west, Ike *could* hit just to the east of galveston....too many hours between now and then to tell.
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I'll be on the very smallest edge of my seat.
 
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