I Created a CFB Ranking System

#627
#627
bamawriter said:
WEEK 10 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Ohio St (9-0) - 182.3085 (2/2/2)
2. Georgia (9-0) - 181.9311 (1/1/1)
3. Tennessee (8-1) - 173.2954 (5/5/5)
4. Michigan (9-0) - 173.1594 (3/3/3)
5. TCU (9-0) - 161.1919 (4/4/4)
6. Alabama (7-2) - 160.6598 (10/11/9)
7. USC (8-1) - 155.8823 (8/7/8)
8. UCLA (8-1) - 155.5205 (9/10/12)
9. Clemson (8-1) - 155.3879 (12/12/10)
10. Penn St (7-2) - 152.1642 (14/15/14)
11. Oregon (8-1) - 150.8089 (6/6/6)
12. LSU (7-2) - 150.3072 (7/8/7)
13. Utah (7-2) - 148.0706 (13/13/13)
14. Ole Miss (8-1) - 145.9945 (11/9/11)
15. UCF (7-2) - 144.1767 (22/21/22)
16. North Carolina (8-1) - 143.6144 (15/14/15)
17. Notre Dame (6-3) - 142.9965 (20/25/20)
18. Troy (7-2) - 141.7769 (UR/UR/UR)
19. NC State (7-2) - 141.4515 (17/16/16)
20. Texas (6-3) - 141.4177 (18/18/18)
21. Kansas St (6-3) - 141.1126 (23/22/19)
22. Florida St (6-3) - 140.8117 (25/UR/23)
23. Tulane (8-1) - 140.4822 (16/17/17)
24. Coastal Carolina (8-1) - 137.6304 (UR/UR/UR)
25. Illinois (7-2) - 136.4172 (21/20/21)
Click to expand...
How come UGA didn’t jump Ohio State after beating us?
 
#629
#629
bamawriter said:
WEEK 10 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Ohio St (9-0) - 182.3085 (2/2/2)
2. Georgia (9-0) - 181.9311 (1/1/1)
3. Tennessee (8-1) - 173.2954 (5/5/5)
4. Michigan (9-0) - 173.1594 (3/3/3)
5. TCU (9-0) - 161.1919 (4/4/4)
6. Alabama (7-2) - 160.6598 (10/11/9)
7. USC (8-1) - 155.8823 (8/7/8)
8. UCLA (8-1) - 155.5205 (9/10/12)
9. Clemson (8-1) - 155.3879 (12/12/10)
10. Penn St (7-2) - 152.1642 (14/15/14)
11. Oregon (8-1) - 150.8089 (6/6/6)
12. LSU (7-2) - 150.3072 (7/8/7)
13. Utah (7-2) - 148.0706 (13/13/13)
14. Ole Miss (8-1) - 145.9945 (11/9/11)
15. UCF (7-2) - 144.1767 (22/21/22)
16. North Carolina (8-1) - 143.6144 (15/14/15)
17. Notre Dame (6-3) - 142.9965 (20/25/20)
18. Troy (7-2) - 141.7769 (UR/UR/UR)
19. NC State (7-2) - 141.4515 (17/16/16)
20. Texas (6-3) - 141.4177 (18/18/18)
21. Kansas St (6-3) - 141.1126 (23/22/19)
22. Florida St (6-3) - 140.8117 (25/UR/23)
23. Tulane (8-1) - 140.4822 (16/17/17)
24. Coastal Carolina (8-1) - 137.6304 (UR/UR/UR)
25. Illinois (7-2) - 136.4172 (21/20/21)
Click to expand...

In no ranking system should Penn State be over LSU and Oregon
 
#630
#630
WEEK 11 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Georgia (10-0) - 183.9380 (1/1/1)
2. Ohio St (10-0) - 181.5940 (2/2/2)
3. Tennessee (9-1) - 174.3220 (5/5/5)
4. Michigan (10-0) - 170.9359 (3/3/3)
5. Alabama (8-2) - 164.7200 (8/8/8)
6. TCU (10-0) - 164.3700 (4/4/4)
7. Penn St (8-2) - 158.4190 (11/12/11)
8. Clemson (9-1) - 155.5970 (9/9/9)
9. USC (9-1) - 152.7750 (7/6/7)
10. LSU (8-2) - 150.7270 (6/7/6)
11. Utah (8-2) - 150.5850 (10/10/10)
12. UCF (8-2) - 149.9960 (17/18/20)
13. North Carolina (9-1) - 146.7470 (13/11/13)
14. Florida St (7-3) - 146.1950 (20/20/19)
15. Kansas St (7-3) - 144.0170 (19/17/15)
16. Oregon (8-2) - 143.0580 (12/13/12)
17. Texas (6-4) - 140.2730 (UR/UR/UR)
18. UCLA (8-2) - 140.1530 (16/16/16)
19. Ole Miss (8-2) - 139.9780 (14/14/14)
20. Notre Dame (7-3) - 139.7800 (18/19/18)
21. Troy (8-2) - 139.7375 (UR/UR/UR)
22. Washington (8-2) - 137.7920 (15/15/17)
23. South Alabama (8-2) - 136.7830 (UR/UR/UR)
24. Coastal Carolina (9-1) - 136.5478 (23/23/UR)
25. UTSA (8-2) - 136.3898 (UR/UR/UR)
 
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#631
#631
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today:

Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Tennessee
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #12 UCF vs. #11 Utah
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #10 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 Alabama vs. #6 TCU
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #9 USC

It's interesting that the 12 NY6 teams are exactly the Top 12.
 
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#632
#632
The Rest of the SEC:

34. Mississippi St (6-4) - 126.8700
38. Florida (6-4) - 123.9490
55. Kentucky (6-4) - 115.6950
59. Arkansas (5-5) - 112.9100
75. South Carolina (6-4) - 104.1546
79. Auburn (4-6) - 99.0721
81. Missouri (4-6) - 98.3150
88. Vanderbilt (4-6) - 90.0729
98. Texas A&M (3-7) - 85.4710
 
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#633
#633
The Bottom 10:

122. New Mexico St (4-5) - 61.1199
123. Temple (3-7) - 61.1070
124. Colorado St (2-8) - 60.6400
125. Nevada (2-8) - 58.0665
126. Colorado (1-9) - 56.6980
127. USF (1-9) - 53.4800
128. Charlotte (2-9) - 51.2255
129. Hawaii (2-9) - 48.5887
130. Akron (1-9) - 47.6860
131. UMass (1-9) - 44.7294

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Tennessee

A few notes:

Absolutely no one wants to win the MAC this year. Their highest ranked team is Toledo at #40 (and that's before they lost last night). Their second highest is Ohio at #65.

The Mountain West is usually one of the best mid-major conferences. Not this year. Boise State is their top team at #39. They have a few teams hovering around the middle of the rankings. But 4 of their 12 members are ranked 121st or worse.
 
#634
#634
bamawriter said:
The Rest of the SEC:

34. Mississippi St (6-4) - 126.8700
38. Florida (6-4) - 123.9490
55. Kentucky (6-4) - 115.6950
59. Arkansas (5-5) - 112.9100
75. South Carolina (6-4) - 104.1546
79. Auburn (4-6) - 99.0721
81. Missouri (4-6) - 98.3150
88. Vanderbilt (4-6) - 90.0729
98. Texas A&M (3-7) - 85.4710
Click to expand...
Lol @ A&M.

How long has it been since Vandy wasnt the bottom team?
 
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#635
#635
bamawriter said:
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today:

Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Tennessee
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #12 UCF vs. #11 Utah
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #10 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 Alabama vs. #6 TCU
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #9 USC

It's interesting that the 12 NY6 teams are exactly the Top 12.
Click to expand...
Thats what it should be IMO
 
#637
#637
WEEK 12 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Georgia (11-0) - 183.8286 (1/1/1)
2. Ohio St (11-0) - 181.1184 (2/2/2)
3. Michigan (11-0) - 170.8643 (3/3/3)
4. Alabama (9-2) - 163.9761 (8/7/7)
5. TCU (11-0) - 163.2017 (4/4/4)
6. Tennessee (9-2) - 162.2416 (9/11/10)
7. Penn St (9-2) - 160.1817 (11/10/11)
8. Clemson (10-1) - 157.5030 (7/8/8)
9. USC (10-1) - 155.4133 (5/5/6)
10. LSU (9-2) - 153.3308 (6/6/5)
11. Florida St (8-3) - 148.4152 (16/16/16)
12. Oregon (9-2) - 147.6734 (10/9/9)
13. Texas (7-4) - 145.6906 (24/24/23)
14. Kansas St (8-3) - 145.5525 (15/13/12)
15. Utah (8-3) - 144.4773 (14/14/14)
16. Notre Dame (8-3) - 141.8623 (13/15/15)
17. UTSA (9-2) - 140.3881 (UR/25/UR)
18. Tulane (9-2) - 139.4352 (19/20/19)
19. Troy (9-2) - 139.3191 (UR/UR/UR)
20. UCF (8-3) - 138.6051 (25/UR/22)
21. North Carolina (9-2) - 136.6173 (18/17/17)
22. South Alabama (9-2) - 136.2104 (UR/UR/UR)
23. Coastal Carolina (9-1) - 136.0315 (23/23/UR)
24. Oregon St (8-3) - 135.7380 (22/22/21)
25. UCLA (8-3) - 135.6270 (17/18/18)
 
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#638
#638
Fiesta (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Michigan
Peach (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Alabama

Cotton (G5 vs. At-Large) - #17 UTSA vs. #11 Florida St
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #8 Clemson vs. #10 LSU
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 TCU vs. #6 Tennessee
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #7 Penn St vs. #9 USC
 
#639
#639
The Rest of the SEC:

27. Ole Miss (8-3) - 134.9188 (20/19/20)
31. Mississippi St (7-4) - 129.7235
37. Arkansas (6-5) - 123.5165
48. South Carolina (7-4) - 116.8421
51. Kentucky (6-5) - 115.7130
53. Florida (6-5) - 115.4852)
66. Auburn (5-6) - 109.2904
74. Missouri (5-6) - 103.5809
80. Vanderbilt (5-6) - 97.0701
95. Texas A&M (4-7) - 88.6510
 
#640
#640
The Bottom 10:

122. New Mexico (2-9) - 60.3036
123. FIU (4-7) - 59.7112
124. Nevada (2-9) - 57.8003
125. New Mexico St (4-6) - 56.6428
126. Hawaii (3-9) - 55.4136
127. Charlotte (3-9) - 55.0005
128. Colorado (1-10) - 54.6186
129. USF (1-10) - 50.8137
130. Akron (1-9) - 46.4078
131. UMass (1-10) - 40.0466

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina
Sorry everyone.
 
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#643
#643
bamawriter said:
Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)
+
Opponents' Winning % x 100
+
Average Adjusted Point Differential
+
Opponents' Average Point Differential
+
Average Yardage Differential / 100
=
SCORE


As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) = 134.0328

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984
2. Clemson - 175.6221
3. Oklahoma - 174.9711
4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.
Click to expand...
It’s more to keep up with but have you thought about adding opponent’s opponents winning percentage in? I bring it up because your latest rankings have a lot of lower tier teams in the top 25 and I assume that’s because beating a 5-5 Sunbelt team is no different than beating a 5-5 SEC team. Adding the opponent’s opponents winning percentage isn’t a perfect way to capture the relative strength of the opponent but it’s something and I think the BCS used to have such a component back in the day.
 
#644
#644
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
@bamawriter Do you think there might be a little Alabama bias in that algorithm? #4?

I know they're talented on paper but #4?
Click to expand...

I mean....Alabama is 5 points away from 11-0. We are 41 points away from it. They've lost a lot closer than we have. I definitely wouldn't want to have to play Bama again, with or without Hendon healthy.

Bama has lost, but in no way have they been a bad team.
 
#645
#645
I actually tend to think this is pretty spot on. I like that it is holds accountable teams like LSU who got blown out to us early on in the season. It truly takes a holistic look at the season, which is hard to subjectively do when you're a voter with recency bias. We think that the teams in September are different than the teams in December. The season should count the same all 13 weeks. I appreciate your rankings.
 
#646
#646
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
@bamawriter Do you think there might be a little Alabama bias in that algorithm? #4?

I know they're talented on paper but #4?
Click to expand...

On a neutral field like Indianapolis and assuming Georgia is the best team, which team is most likely to defeating Georgia?
I would put Alabama ahead of TCU, LSU, Tennessee, maybe even ahead of Michigan and Ohio State. Just speculation and we will never know.
 
#647
#647
Raebo said:
On a neutral field like Indianapolis and assuming Georgia is the best team, which team is most likely to defeating Georgia?
I would put Alabama ahead of TCU, LSU, Tennessee, maybe even ahead of Michigan and Ohio State. Just speculation and we will never know.
Click to expand...
I'm just responding to the differences in the other ranking scales for a team like Bama, TN, TX, Penn State, and a few others.

I'll be curious to see how it matches up with the final results but the other systems are reasonably close to each other and this one seems to be an outlier.
 
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#648
#648
hUTch2002 said:
It’s more to keep up with but have you thought about adding opponent’s opponents winning percentage in? I bring it up because your latest rankings have a lot of lower tier teams in the top 25 and I assume that’s because beating a 5-5 Sunbelt team is no different than beating a 5-5 SEC team. Adding the opponent’s opponents winning percentage isn’t a perfect way to capture the relative strength of the opponent but it’s something and I think the BCS used to have such a component back in the day.
Click to expand...

I considered it, but all it did was flatten the scores. This was especially true for a conference like the Big XII where every team plays every other team.
 
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#649
#649
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I'm just responding to the differences in the other ranking scales for a team like Bama, TN, TX, Penn State, and a few others.

I'll be curious to see how it matches up with the final results but the other systems are reasonably close to each other and this one seems to be an outlier.
Click to expand...

Again, math systems are simply stupid.
 
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#650
#650
While I updated all the numbers last week, by the time the CFP poll came out I got slammed with work and never got around to posting it. Here's last week's Top 25. I'll post this week's shortly.

1. Georgia (12-0) - 181.1122
2. Michigan (12-0) - 177.4697
3. Ohio St (11-1) - 171.1306
4. Tennessee (10-2) - 165.7873
5. TCU (12-0) - 163.8497
6. Alabama (10-2) - 161.5739
7. Penn St (10-2) - 158.4158
8. USC (11-1) - 157.5992
9. Clemson (10-2) - 147.5608
10. Kansas St (9-3) - 147.1286
11. Florida St (9-3) - 146.6703
12. Texas (8-4) - 146.4803
13. Tulane (10-2) - 144.5989
14. Oregon (9-3) - 142.8000
15. LSU (9-3) - 142.3289
16. Utah (9-3) - 141.3628
17. UTSA (10-2) - 141.2325
18. Troy (10-2) - 140.8919
19. Oregon St (9-3) - 139.6983
20. Washington (10-2) - 139.0389
21. Notre Dame (8-4) - 136.5670
22. UCLA (9-3) - 135.5044
23. South Alabama (10-2) - 135.2872
24. UCF (9-3) - 133.9934
25. Mississippi St (8-4) - 133.0264
 
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