I Created a CFB Ranking System

#676
#676
bamawriter said:
They have the 123rd ranked SOS. That's the sole reason for their ranking. USC is unranked because their SOS is second to last. Tennessee's is also a putrid 116th.
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USC is about to get a huge bump playing the Prime Time’s this week. Oh wait…
 
#677
#677
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Appreciate the work but ..... well, you're going to get dragged enough without me jumping on you too. I appreciate the work, really, and I'm sure it's a "work in progress" so keep tinkering with the algorithm.
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SOS is heavily weighted in the algorithm to my knowledge, which makes sense this early in the season. That’s why the CFP rankings don’t come out until later in the season whenever enough games have been played.
 
#678
#678
bamawriter said:
Week 4 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (4-0) - 188.3350 (14/14)
2. Miami (4-0) - 183.8975 (18/18)
3. Texas (4-0) - 181.8425 (3/5)
4. Washington (4-0) - 180.7250 (7/8)
5. Ohio St (4-0) - 179.0575 (4/3)
6. Texas A&M (3-1) - 178.6867 (UR/UR)
7. Penn St (4-0) - 176.7400 (6/7)
8. Michigan (4-0) - 174.6175 (2/2)
9. Oregon (4-0) - 171.7425 (9/9)
10. Washington St (4-0) - 169.2367 (16/17)
11. Florida St (4-0) - 167.300 (5/4)
12. Utah (4-0) - 162.5875 (10/10)
13. Alabama (3-1) - 161.6975 (12/11)
14. Missouri (4-0) - 159.8475 (23/22)
15. North Carolina (4-0) - 159.7525 (15/15)
16. Notre Dame (4-1) - 159.3120 (11/13)
17. Kansas St (4-1) - 153.3850 (24/24)
18. Louisville (4-0) - 152.6375 (UR/UR)
19. Colorado (3-1) - 150.9992 (UR/UR)
20. Duke (4-0) - 149.4825 (17/16)
21. Liberty (4-0) - 148.0825 (UR/UR)
22. Ole Miss (3-1) - 147.9350 (20/20)
23. Syracuse (4-0) - 146.8975 (UR/UR)
24. Georgia (4-0) - 145.0100 (1/1)
25. LSU (3-1) - 144.1375 (13/12)

This might be the greatest deviation between my ranking and the polls since I started doing this.
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looks like their lopsided victories are carrying TAMU to a REALLY high rating.
 
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#679
#679
LouderVol said:
looks like their lopsided victories are carrying TAMU to a REALLY high rating.
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Their only loss is on the road to an undefeated Miami and they beat Auburn by 3 scores. This is a current rating and we will find out more about them over the next few weeks. Miami very well could win the ACC this season.
 
#680
#680
VolPack22 said:
SOS is heavily weighted in the algorithm to my knowledge, which makes sense this early in the season. That’s why the CFP rankings don’t come out until later in the season whenever enough games have been played.
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Yeah, I get it, but I imagine the work.... the spreadsheet of it all.... and I cringe because I hate that crap. I really do appreciate the effort because different perspectives are always good and highlighting the SOS BS of lots of "commonly high ranked teams" is refreshing.

Maths be hard for this old man though. 😉
 
#681
#681
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Appreciate the work but ..... well, you're going to get dragged enough without me jumping on you too. I appreciate the work, really, and I'm sure it's a "work in progress" so keep tinkering with the algorithm.
Click to expand...

The algorithm has been set for years. Everything will course correct as the season goes on.
 
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#682
#682
bamawriter said:
The algorithm has been set for years. Everything will course correct as the season goes on.
Click to expand...

bamawriter said:
WEEK 4 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Alabama (4-0) - 182.8500 (2/2)
2. Ohio St (4-0) - 182.3200 (3/3)
3. USC (4-0) - 175.1792 (6/6)
4. Georgia (4-0) - 172.8075 (1/1)
5. Penn St (4-0) - 171.4750 (11/12)
6. James Madison (3-0) - 169.8567 (UR/UR)
7. Kansas (4-0) - 167.9425 (UR/UR)
8. Florida St (4-0) - 166.2450 (23/22)
9. Tennessee (4-0) - 165.7725 (8/9)
10. LSU (3-1) - 159.6650 (UR/UR)
11. Oregon (3-1) - 159.0075 (13/15)
12. Syracuse (4-0) - 155.6350 (UR/25)
13. NC State (4-0) - 154.2075 (10/10)
14. Ole Miss (4-0) - 152.9425 (14/11)
15. Washington (4-0) - 152.9333 (15/18)
16. Clemson (4-0) - 151.0025 (5/5)
17. Indiana (3-1) - 150.7825 (UR/UR)
18. Michigan (4-0) - 150.6300 (4/4)
19. Wake Forest (3-1) - 150.4350 (22/21)
20. Mississippi St (3-1) - 150.3150 (UR/UR)
21. Kansas St (3-1) - 149.2375 (25/UR)
22. Baylor (3-1) - 147.6950 (16/14)
23. Oklahoma St (3-0) - 146.1800 (9/7)
24. BYU (3-1) - 146.1750 (19/20)
25. Kentucky (4-0) - 145.3075 (7/8)

Let me know if you're looking for anyone or if you want to know how the math shakes out.
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Last year's week 4 was a "little" less in need of correction. 🤷‍♂️ Seriously, not ragging you at all, just a bit surprised this year seems more skewed than last year.
 
#683
#683
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Last year's week 4 was a "little" less in need of correction. 🤷‍♂️ Seriously, not ragging you at all, just a bit surprised this year seems more skewed than last year.
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The spread between the best SOS and the worst is massive this year. I can't recall it ever being this big. Like I said, it'll correct itself as the season goes on and the SOSs flatten toward the center. But this goes to prove my point that math systems are a terrible way to compare sports teams.
 
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#684
#684
bamawriter said:
The spread between the best SOS and the worst is massive this year. I can't recall it ever being this big. Like I said, it'll correct itself as the season goes on and the SOSs flatten toward the center. But this goes to prove my point that math systems are a terrible way to compare sports teams.
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I appreciate the highlight of SOS and there's never going to be a "math equation" for sports.

Vegas would collectively jump off the Stratosphere (or whatever they call that hideous thing on the strip.)

It's fun to watch your rankings. It'll be even more fun if TN can bubble up.
 
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#685
#685
WEEK 5 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Texas (5-0) - 196.4360 (3/4)
2. Oklahoma (5-0) - 190.3500 (12/12)
3. Miami (4-0) - 183.6850 (17/17)
4. Michigan (5-0) - 182.1360 (2/2)
5. Washington (5-0) - 181.3640 (7/8)
6. Ohio St (4-0) - 179.0033 (4/3)
7. Washington St (4-0) - 175.7200 (13/14)
8. Penn State (5-0) - 173.8780 (6/6)
9. Florida St (4-0) - 168.1875 (5/5)
10. Texas A&M (4-1) - 166.0760 (UR/UR)
11. Oregon (5-0) - 165.0287 (8/9)
12. Notre Dame (5-1) - 164.9650 (10/11)
13. Alabama (4-1) - 163.6900 (11/10)
14. North Carolina (4-0) - 159.6025 (14/13)
15. Liberty (4-0) - 159.1075 (UR/UR)
16. Missouri (5-0) - 157.3887 (21/22)
17. Louisville (5-0) - 154.1300 (25/25)
18. Wisconsin (3-1) - 153.7650 (UR/UR)
19. Ole Miss (4-1) - 153.2860 (16/15)
20. Kansas St (3-1) - 153.0475 (UR/UR)
21. Georgia (5-0) - 147.6940 (1/1)
22. Utah (4-1) - 146.8700 (18/19)
23. Oregon St (4-1) - 145.1147 (15/16)
24. Kentucky (5-0) - 142.8627 (20/20)
25. USC (5-0) - 142.3860 (9/7)
 
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#686
#686
The Rest of the SEC:

43. Auburn (3-2) - 128.4740
44. Florida (3-2) - 128.4500
45. LSU (3-2) - 128.3620 (23/23)
52. Tennessee (4-1) - 122.3100 (22/18)
66. South Carolina (2-3) - 111.6440
90. Vanderbilt (2-4) - 98.8239
97. Arkansas (2-3) - 96.2320
100. Mississippi St (2-3) - 91.0100

MSU is a great example of how SOS can shift a score very quickly, especially early in the season. While they added 4-1 Bama to their SOS, their three other FBS opponents all lost on Saturday.
 
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#687
#687
The Bottom 10:

124. MTSU (1-4) - 69.5640
125. Sam Houston (0-4) - 68.5425
126. FAU (1-3) - 68.3300
127. Nevada (0-5) - 68.0620
128. Kent St (1-4) - 64.1500
129. Northern Illinois (1-4) - 63.5760
130. UTEP (1-5) - 61.9989
131. UMass (1-5) - 58.0550
132. Akron (1-4) - 56.8900
133. UConn (0-5) - 53.1160

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Ohio St
 
#688
#688
Is there a post that explains the Lineal Title aspect of Current Champions of Life?
 
#689
#689
GroverCleveland said:
Is there a post that explains the Lineal Title aspect of Current Champions of Life?
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Started with Butch Jones here. First team to beat him after Bama started this tracking became the current Champion of Life. That team kept it until they lost, transferring it to the winner; or until they won the title. I dont remember if Conference Champs counted. I dont remember how the title transfers if the current holder becomes a real Champion.
 
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#690
#690
GroverCleveland said:
Is there a post that explains the Lineal Title aspect of Current Champions of Life?
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LouderVol said:
Started with Butch Jones here. First team to beat him after Bama started this tracking became the current Champion of Life. That team kept it until they lost, transferring it to the winner; or until they won the title. I dont remember if Conference Champs counted. I dont remember how the title transfers if the current holder becomes a real Champion.
Click to expand...

This is basically right. It's a lineal title (ala boxing) where the title changes hands based on wins and losses. Anyone who has won a real title in the past couple of years is not eligible. If the current title holder wins a real championship, then the belt is passed to whomever is currently employing Butch Jones (this has only happened once: UGA in 2021).
 
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#692
#692
LouderVol said:
Started with Butch Jones here. First team to beat him after Bama started this tracking became the current Champion of Life. That team kept it until they lost, transferring it to the winner; or until they won the title. I dont remember if Conference Champs counted. I dont remember how the title transfers if the current holder becomes a real Champion.
Click to expand...
thanks. Knew it started with Butch. Be fun to have a post showing the lineal title. Like the line of English monarchs.
 
#693
#693
@GroverCleveland Ask and ye shall receive.

CHAMPION _ DATE WON _ # of SUCCESSFUL DEFENSES _ DATE LOST _ LENGTH OF REIGN

1. Tennessee _ 11/21/2016* _ 0 _ 11/26/2016 _ 5 days
2. Vanderbilt _ 11/26/2016 _ 0 _ 12/26/2016 _ 30 days
3. NC State _ 12/26/2016 _ 0 _ 9/2/2017 _ 250 days
4. South Carolina _ 9/2/2017 _ 1 _ 9/16/2017 _ 14 days
5. Kentucky _ 9/16/2017 _ 2 _ 10/21/2017 _ 35 days
6. Mississippi St _ 10/21/2017 _ 3 _ 11/23/2017 _ 33 days
7. Ole Miss _ 11/23/2017 _ 2 _ 9/29/2018 _ 310 days
8. LSU _ 9/29/2018 _ 0 _ 10/6/2016 _ 7 days
9. Florida _ 10/6/2018 _ 1 _ 11/3/2018 _ 28 days
10. Missouri _ 11/3/2018 _ 3 _ 12/31/2018 _ 58 days
11. Oklahoma St _ 12/31/2018 _ 2 _ 9/21/2019 _ 264 days
12. Texas _ 9/21/2019 _ 2 _ 10/26/2019 _ 35 days
13. TCU _ 10/26/2019 _ 0 _ 11/2/2019 _ 7 days
14. Oklahoma St (2) _ 11/2/2019 _ 2 _ 12/27/2019 _ 55 days
15. Texas A&M _ 12/27/2019 _ 11 _ 9/25/2021 _ 638 days
16. Arkansas _ 9/25/2021 _ 0 _ 10/2/2021 _ 7 days
17. Georgia _ 10/2/2021 _ 2 _ 10/30/2021** _ 28 days
18. Arkansas St _ 10/30/2021*** _ 1 _ 11/20/2021 _ 21 days
19. Georgia St _ 11/20/2021 _ 2 _ 9/3/2022 _ 287 days
20. South Carolina (2) _ 9/3/2022 _ 0 _ 9/10/2022 _ 7 days
21. Arkansas (2) _ 9/10/2022 _ 0 _ 9/24/2022 _ 14 days
22. Texas A&M (2) _ 9/24/2022 _ 0 _ 10/1/2022 _ 7 days
23. Mississippi St (2) _ 10/1/2022 _ 1 _ 10/15/2022 _ 14 days
24. Kentucky (2) _ 10/15/2022 _ 0 _ 10/29/2022 _ 14 days
25. Tennessee (2) _ 10/29/2022 _ 1 _ 11/19/2022 _ 21 days
26. South Carolina (3) _ 11/19/2022 _ 0 _ 12/30/2022 _ 41 days
27. Notre Dame _ 12/30/2022 _ 3 _ 9/23/2023 _ 267 days
28. Ohio St _ 9/23/2023 _ 0 _ CURRENT _ 11 days (as of 10/4/2023)

*Butch Jones invented the title and awarded it to his own team
**UGA had to forfeit the title due to winning the SEC East and ultimately the national championship
***Arkansas St was awarded the vacant title due to employing Butch Jones
 
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#694
#694
bamawriter said:
@GroverCleveland Ask and ye shall receive.

CHAMPION _ DATE WON _ # of SUCCESSFUL DEFENSES _ DATE LOST _ LENGTH OF REIGN

1. Tennessee _ 11/21/2016* _ 0 _ 11/26/2016 _ 5 days
2. Vanderbilt _ 11/26/2016 _ 0 _ 12/26/2016 _ 30 days
3. NC State _ 12/26/2016 _ 0 _ 9/2/2017 _ 250 days
4. South Carolina _ 9/2/2017 _ 1 _ 9/16/2017 _ 14 days
5. Kentucky _ 9/16/2017 _ 2 _ 10/21/2017 _ 35 days
6. Mississippi St _ 10/21/2017 _ 3 _ 11/23/2017 _ 33 days
7. Ole Miss _ 11/23/2017 _ 2 _ 9/29/2018 _ 310 days
8. LSU _ 9/29/2018 _ 0 _ 10/6/2016 _ 7 days
9. Florida _ 10/6/2018 _ 1 _ 11/3/2018 _ 28 days
10. Missouri _ 11/3/2018 _ 3 _ 12/31/2018 _ 58 days
11. Oklahoma St _ 12/31/2018 _ 2 _ 9/21/2019 _ 264 days
12. Texas _ 9/21/2019 _ 2 _ 10/26/2019 _ 35 days
13. TCU _ 10/26/2019 _ 0 _ 11/2/2019 _ 7 days
14. Oklahoma St (2) _ 11/2/2019 _ 2 _ 12/27/2019 _ 55 days
15. Texas A&M _ 12/27/2019 _ 11 _ 9/25/2021 _ 638 days
16. Arkansas _ 9/25/2021 _ 0 _ 10/2/2021 _ 7 days
17. Georgia _ 10/2/2021 _ 2 _ 10/30/2021** _ 28 days
18. Arkansas St _ 10/30/2021*** _ 1 _ 11/20/2021 _ 21 days
19. Georgia St _ 11/20/2021 _ 2 _ 9/3/2022 _ 287 days
20. South Carolina (2) _ 9/3/2022 _ 0 _ 9/10/2022 _ 7 days
21. Arkansas (2) _ 9/10/2022 _ 0 _ 9/24/2022 _ 14 days
22. Texas A&M (2) _ 9/24/2022 _ 0 _ 10/1/2022 _ 7 days
23. Mississippi St (2) _ 10/1/2022 _ 1 _ 10/15/2022 _ 14 days
24. Kentucky (2) _ 10/15/2022 _ 0 _ 10/29/2022 _ 14 days
25. Tennessee (2) _ 10/29/2022 _ 1 _ 11/19/2022 _ 21 days
26. South Carolina (3) _ 11/19/2022 _ 0 _ 12/30/2022 _ 41 days
27. Notre Dame _ 12/30/2022 _ 3 _ 9/23/2023 _ 267 days
28. Ohio St _ 9/23/2023 _ 0 _ CURRENT _ 11 days (as of 10/4/2023)

*Butch Jones invented the title and awarded it to his own team
**UGA had to forfeit the title due to winning the SEC East and ultimately the national championship
***Arkansas St was awarded the vacant title due to employing Butch Jones
Click to expand...
You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar.
 
#695
#695
Took the week off while on vacation. Here's how everything looked after week 6.

WEEK 6 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (6-0) - 191.0567 (5/7)
2. Ohio St (5-0) - 184.8789 (3/3)
3. Texas (5-1) - 183.1872 (9/11)
4. Michigan (6-0) - 181.4739 (2/2)
5. Washington (5-0) - 176.8773 (7/6)
6. Penn St (5-0) - 175.1913 (6/5)
7. Oregon (5-0) - 169.3220 (8/8)
8. Florida St (5-0) - 168.9347 (4/4)
9. North Carolina (5-0) - 166.9013 (12/12)
10. Louisville (6-0) - 166.7085 (14/15)
11. Georgia (6-0) - 164.5533 (1/1)
12. Alabama (5-1) - 163.8272 (11/10)
13. Wisconsin (4-1) - 157.9947 (UR/UR)
14. Washington St (4-1) - 157.2893 (t19/19)
15. Notre Dame (5-2) - 157.1767 (21/21)
16. Ole Miss (5-1) - 154.8878 (13/13)
17. Miami (4-1) - 152.4407 (25/UR)
18. James Madison (5-0) - 149.6887 (UR/UR)
19. Utah (4-1) - 147.5100 (16/16)
20. Liberty (5-0) - 147.1747 (UR/UR)
21. USC (6-0) - 144.8422 (10/9)
22. UCLA (4-1) - 144.6947 (18/22)
23. Texas A&M (4-2) - 144.3778 (UR/UR)
24. Oregon St (5-1) - 143.9944 (15/14)
25. Clemson (4-2) - 143.1978 (UR/UR)
 
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#696
#696
The Rest of the SEC:

27. LSU (4-2) - 141.3894 (22/20)
32. Missouri (5-1) - 136.9861 (UR/25)
38. Tennessee (4-1) - 132.3533 (t19/17)
39. Kentucky (5-1) - 131.7606 (24/23)
44. Florida (4-2) - 126.9878
50. Auburn (3-2) - 121.9350
64. South Carolina (2-3) - 115.1507
87. Mississippi St (3-3) - 97.6533
92. Arkansas (2-4) - 93.6439
104. Vanderbilt (2-5) - 83.3929
 
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#697
#697
The Bottom 10:

124. Pitt (1-4) - 70.6253
125. MTSU (1-5) - 67.3483
126. Southern Miss (1-5) - 66.2233
127. Temple (2-4) - 65.1861
128. UMass (1-6) - 63.4733
129. Ball St (1-5) - 62.4978
130. UTEP (1-5) - 61.2775
131. Nevada (0-5) - 61.1687
132. Kent St (1-5) - 58.7506
133. Akron (1-5) - 42.9394

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Ohio St
 
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#698
#698
bamawriter said:
Took the week off while on vacation. Here's how everything looked after week 6.

WEEK 6 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (6-0) - 191.0567 (5/7)
2. Ohio St (5-0) - 184.8789 (3/3)
3. Texas (5-1) - 183.1872 (9/11)
4. Michigan (6-0) - 181.4739 (2/2)
5. Washington (5-0) - 176.8773 (7/6)
6. Penn St (5-0) - 175.1913 (6/5)
7. Oregon (5-0) - 169.3220 (8/8)
8. Florida St (5-0) - 168.9347 (4/4)
9. North Carolina (5-0) - 166.9013 (12/12)
10. Louisville (6-0) - 166.7085 (14/15)
11. Georgia (6-0) - 164.5533 (1/1)
12. Alabama (5-1) - 163.8272 (11/10)
13. Wisconsin (4-1) - 157.9947 (UR/UR)
14. Washington St (4-1) - 157.2893 (t19/19)
15. Notre Dame (5-2) - 157.1767 (21/21)
16. Ole Miss (5-1) - 154.8878 (13/13)
17. Miami (4-1) - 152.4407 (25/UR)
18. James Madison (5-0) - 149.6887 (UR/UR)
19. Utah (4-1) - 147.5100 (16/16)
20. Liberty (5-0) - 147.1747 (UR/UR)
21. USC (6-0) - 144.8422 (10/9)
22. UCLA (4-1) - 144.6947 (18/22)
23. Texas A&M (4-2) - 144.3778 (UR/UR)
24. Oregon St (5-1) - 143.9944 (15/14)
25. Clemson (4-2) - 143.1978 (UR/UR)
Click to expand...
Is that from the week before
 
#700
#700
bamawriter said:
Yep. I'll have this week's up tomorrow.
Click to expand...
This may be a weird question but: Florida (who beat us) beat South Carolina (who lost to us), this weekend. Would it have been better for our ranking if a team we beat wins, if it means a team we lost to also lost, ie South Carolina beating Florida by the same amount Florida beat them? or is it weighted the same, and would it just be a wash?
 
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