I Created a CFB Ranking System

#53
#53
salutethehill said:
200_s.gif




tumblr_m1vdlhn4bs1qk553k.gif
Click to expand...

:lolabove::eek:lol: Quoted the wrong post last time.
 
#54
#54
bamawriter said:
I'll do it last year for the Big XII and see if it makes a significant difference.

Any suggestion on how to handle FCS teams? I went with the standard .2500 winning % because the average team that transitions from FCS to FBS has a .2500 winning % during their first three years. And I only included their games against FBS opponents in their score differential so that they are treated like a transitioning FBS team.

If I were to only include FBS opponents in an FCS team's SOS, then a team like Lamar will have an SOS of 95.25 because their only FBS opponent was Baylor.

I simply have a problem including an FCS opponent's full season when assessing an FBS team. I mean, Charleston Southern went undefeated against lower division opponents, but Alabama beat them by 50.
Click to expand...

I have had a formula for 10 years. I use the difference in scholarship availability to weigh down FCS teams. It's not perfect, but it's a metric. I don't treat all conferences the same though. I treat Ivy and Patriot as if they give 55 schollies instead of the FCS max based on some web research about the typical aid given by one of those leagues. I treat the other league the same because of the high amount of games the Ivy and Patriot teams play against each other. I don't have it in front of me right now, but I think NEC gives 40 schollies. And, I treat the Pioneer as if it gives 30 schollies. The reason is that I cannot use zero, and the Pioneer champ used to play the NEC champ, and the NEC was giving 30 schollies the last time that happened. So, everything is weighed down to a value of X/85. It's not perfect, but it's worked out well.

I don't know how much of that made sense, as that's only a partial discussion. It's hard to detail this in a message board post.
 
#55
#55
Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch
Click to expand...

There really was no controversy, it just showed the bias of the system which is ran on ratings which was obvious. An after the fact rating system really doesn't solve anything, there will always be problems as well.

As far as your supposed math formula, I'll make a permanent ban bet with you as to where LSU finishes this year.... since you have them at #34.

" You cannot argue with math."

Presenting a formula to help in possibly determining something is not math, its an opinion. lol
 
#56
#56
LSU-SIU said:
There really was no controversy, it just showed the bias of the system which is ran on ratings which was obvious. An after the fact rating system really doesn't solve anything, there will always be problems as well.

As far as your supposed math formula, I'll make a permanent ban bet with you as to where LSU finishes this year.... since you have them at #34.

" You cannot argue with math."

Presenting a formula to help in possibly determining something is not math, its an opinion. lol
Click to expand...

Before getting all bent out of shape, why don't you actually read thru the thread a little? You are pissing and moaning about me having LSU at #34 when I said, multiple times, that my formula doesn't lend itself to predictions, and I called it

the dumbest preseason poll known to man.
Click to expand...

I think all math systems are dumb, and this was designed to prove my point. So calm down, Sally.
 
#57
#57
bamawriter said:
Before getting all bent out of shape, why don't you actually read thru the thread a little? You are pissing and moaning about me having LSU at #34 when I said, multiple times, that my formula doesn't lend itself to predictions, and I called it



I think all math systems are dumb, and this was designed to prove my point. So calm down, Sally.
Click to expand...

I'm not upset at all nor pissing and moaning. I have no idea what the purpose of this thread is... so you made a custom formula, cool. You said you couldn't argue Math, but you can argue with an opinion. All ratings are based on an opinion, but it appears to me to suggest in your comments that your formula is more correct.

All the formulas in the world will not help... as evident by 2011... at best Bama was 3rd in the SEC yet somehow through the use of ratings and formula they are magically the best.... its called bias and money. Its really the reason I stopped watching so much sports... its a business.. .its ran like a business and a desired outcome is encouraged.
 
#58
#58
LSU-SIU said:
I'm not upset at all nor pissing and moaning. I have no idea what the purpose of this thread is... so you made a custom formula, cool. You said you couldn't argue Math, but you can argue with an opinion. All ratings are based on an opinion, but it appears to me to suggest in your comments that your formula is more correct.
Click to expand...

Are you serious right now?

All the formulas in the world will not help... as evident by 2011... at best Bama was 3rd in the SEC
Click to expand...

Oh, you're not serious. Good.
 
#61
#61
bamawriter said:
You missed the point of this, and you missed it badly.
Click to expand...

If your point is, formulas devised to put the appearance of fairness in an unfair situation.... than I guess I get that... if its other than that... yes, I don't understand the point of the thread other than you created another formula. Either way, its a business, big business, they will encourage the desired outcome which is financially benefit to them... in which case even LSU is at an unfair advantage as the formulas are put in place to encourage a more likely desired outcome.

Basically the use of ratings and formulas to justify the end result. Which is why sports in general has become very dull to me. 2011 was not controversial to me... it was the logical outcome from a group that wanted a desired result.
 
#64
#64
First Ranking of the Year, with AP/Coaches for reference. For the formula, see the OP.

1. Michigan (4-0) - 187.4175 (4/5)
2. Louisville (4-0) - 186.3292 (3/4)
3. Tennessee (4-0) - 182.3475 (11/11)
4. Ohio St (3-0) - 180.5133 (2/2)
5. Clemson (4-0) - 179.3400 (5/3)
6. Alabama (4-0) - 168.2700 (1/1)
7. Stanford (3-0) - 166.0989 (7/6)
8. Texas A&M (4-0) - 164.1750 (9/10)
9. Houston (4-0) - 163.1042 (6/7)
10. Washington (4-0) - 162.3075 (10/9)
11. Boise St (3-0) - 161.4178 (24/UR)
12. Wake Forest (4-0) - 158.8783 (UR/UR)
13. Wisconsin (4-0) - 157.8142 (8/8)
14. Nebraska (4-0) - 155.1900 (15/15)
15. Western Michigan (4-0) - 154.8458 (UR/UR)
16. Florida St (3-1) - 153.0500 (12/12)
17. Colorado (3-1) - 153.0425 (UR/UR)
18. Arizona St (4-0) - 152.2333 (UR/UR)
19. Virginia Tech (3-1) - 151.7225 (UR/UR)
20. Memphis (3-0) - 150.3578 (UR/UR)
21. Troy (3-1) - 150.1000 (UR/UR)
22. Miami (3-0) - 149.7167 (14/14)
23. Florida (3-1) - 148.0950 (23/21)
24. Navy (3-0) - 147.5500 (UR/UR)
25. West Virginia (3-0) - 146.7033 (UR/UR)

Looking for a particular team? Just ask.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#65
#65
Here's the Bottom 10:

119. San Jose St (1-3) - 61.4050
120. Kent St (1-3) - 60.3150
121. New Mexico (1-2) - 59.9433
122. Rice (0-4) - 57.4900
123. Northern Illinois (0-4) - 57.2592
124. UMass (1-3) - 55.9225
125. Miami (OH) (0-4) - 52.9450
126. New Mexico St (1-3) - 48.6950
127. Arkansas St (0-4) - 46.3292
128. Florida International (0-4) - 42.4558
 
#66
#66
bamawriter said:
First Ranking of the Year, with AP/Coaches for reference. For the formula, see the OP.

1. Michigan (4-0) - 187.4175 (4/5)
2. Louisville (4-0) - 186.3292 (3/4)
3. Tennessee (4-0) - 182.3475 (11/11)
4. Ohio St (3-0) - 180.5133 (2/2)
5. Clemson (4-0) - 179.3400 (5/3)
6. Alabama (4-0) - 168.2700 (1/1)
7. Stanford (3-0) - 166.0989 (7/6)
8. Texas A&M (4-0) - 164.1750 (9/10)
9. Houston (4-0) - 163.1042 (6/7)
10. Washington (4-0) - 162.3075 (10/9)
11. Boise St (3-0) - 161.4178 (24/UR)
12. Wake Forest (4-0) - 158.8783 (UR/UR)
13. Wisconsin (4-0) - 157.8142 (8/8)
14. Nebraska (4-0) - 155.1900 (15/15)
15. Western Michigan (4-0) - 154.8458 (UR/UR)
16. Florida St (3-1) - 153.0500 (12/12)
17. Colorado (3-1) - 153.0425 (UR/UR)
18. Arizona St (4-0) - 152.2333 (UR/UR)
19. Virginia Tech (3-1) - 151.7225 (UR/UR)
20. Memphis (3-0) - 150.3578 (UR/UR)
21. Troy (3-1) - 150.1000 (UR/UR)
22. Miami (3-0) - 149.7167 (14/14)
23. Florida (3-1) - 148.0950 (23/21)
24. Navy (3-0) - 147.5500 (UR/UR)
25. West Virginia (3-0) - 146.7033 (UR/UR)

Looking for a particular team? Just ask.
Click to expand...

Yay! Vols are 3rd. They probably ain't that good of a team right now but definitely top 10 after that UF win.
 
#67
#67
bamawriter said:
First Ranking of the Year, with AP/Coaches for reference. For the formula, see the OP.

1. Michigan (4-0) - 187.4175 (4/5)
2. Louisville (4-0) - 186.3292 (3/4)
3. Tennessee (4-0) - 182.3475 (11/11)
4. Ohio St (3-0) - 180.5133 (2/2)
5. Clemson (4-0) - 179.3400 (5/3)
6. Alabama (4-0) - 168.2700 (1/1)
7. Stanford (3-0) - 166.0989 (7/6)
8. Texas A&M (4-0) - 164.1750 (9/10)
9. Houston (4-0) - 163.1042 (6/7)
10. Washington (4-0) - 162.3075 (10/9)
11. Boise St (3-0) - 161.4178 (24/UR)
12. Wake Forest (4-0) - 158.8783 (UR/UR)
13. Wisconsin (4-0) - 157.8142 (8/8)
14. Nebraska (4-0) - 155.1900 (15/15)
15. Western Michigan (4-0) - 154.8458 (UR/UR)
16. Florida St (3-1) - 153.0500 (12/12)
17. Colorado (3-1) - 153.0425 (UR/UR)
18. Arizona St (4-0) - 152.2333 (UR/UR)
19. Virginia Tech (3-1) - 151.7225 (UR/UR)
20. Memphis (3-0) - 150.3578 (UR/UR)
21. Troy (3-1) - 150.1000 (UR/UR)
22. Miami (3-0) - 149.7167 (14/14)
23. Florida (3-1) - 148.0950 (23/21)
24. Navy (3-0) - 147.5500 (UR/UR)
25. West Virginia (3-0) - 146.7033 (UR/UR)

Looking for a particular team? Just ask.
Click to expand...
Where did Ole Miss and UGA place?
 
#70
#70
malinoisvol said:
Odd. I have to go back and reread the thread to figure out how GA is ranked above OM.

Thanks, bama.
Click to expand...

Because we only have four weeks of data, each game shifts the numbers more than it will later in the season. Because UGA has three wins to Ole Miss' two, UGA has 25 more points right out the gate. Ole Miss has a better point differential and a better SOS, but it isn't enough to make up the gap caused by that one win difference.
 
#71
#71
Bama, I'm guessing the answer too my previous ponder would be UGA is 3-1 as opposed too OM being 2-2?

See it.

Thanks
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#73
#73
i know your formula doesn't look at it this way and its likely never going to happen but it bothers me a little that there is no value on head to head games. two teams could play each other, both end up with the same record and the loser still be ranked above (maybe even significantly) than who won that game.
 
#74
#74
LouderVol said:
i know your formula doesn't look at it this way and its likely never going to happen but it bothers me a little that there is no value on head to head games. two teams could play each other, both end up with the same record and the loser still be ranked above (maybe even significantly) than who won that game.
Click to expand...

You're completely correct, and I'm surprised no one has brought it up before now.

Here's why I didn't account for that:

It places a subjective value into what is an otherwise objective formula. How should a head-to-head victory be formulated? Are all head-to-head victories created equal? If Team A beats Team B by a field goal and they both finish 11-1, but Team B finishes with a much better SOS, should Team A inevitably be ranked ahead of Team B because of the head-to-head?

These questions are why math systems are so problematic.
 
#75
#75
bamawriter said:
You're completely correct, and I'm surprised no one has brought it up before now.

Here's why I didn't account for that:

It places a subjective value into what is an otherwise objective formula. How should a head-to-head victory be formulated? Are all head-to-head victories created equal? If Team A beats Team B by a field goal and they both finish 11-1, but Team B finishes with a much better SOS, should Team A inevitably be ranked ahead of Team B because of the head-to-head?

These questions are why math systems are so problematic.
Click to expand...

This gets into who is the "better team" and who just had "better games". That is the primary reason to want a playoff, where teams get a "second" chance but we still are biased towards having representatives from multiple conferences and lowest losses possible. In many years I think an argument could be made for two SEC teams to be in the playoffs that might ultimately have already played. Like LSU and Bama. Just my 2 cents.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Weezer
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top