I stand before you to take my lashings...

[GoDucks349]

You are the absolute worst football fan I have ever seen.



Congrats on the win.

LOL Thanks........ Probably a much better investor than football fan.

 

[Fightmaker]

LOL Thanks........ Probably a much better investor than football fan.

Just having some fun with you my friend. But I am willing to bet that daj has no idea what the hell you were trying to say.

 

[GoDucks349]

Just having some fun with you my friend. But I am willing to bet that daj has no idea what the hell you were trying to say.

LOL sort of posted what I did to see what would rise to the top.

 

[Boca Vol]

You are telling me that talent evaluations don't or can't predict the outcome of games because there are just too many flaws in that system. Okay instead of having me explain to you repeatedly why it works, explain away why if you use nothing more than talent averages from rivals you can predict about 70% of all games played?

Again you must understand that when you point to an exception, you still haven't explained away the rule.

Good grief!

Yes, in college you can predict with about a 70% accuracy the winners of the games. Big freaking deal! UT has more talent than APSU, :detective::good!:

The 70% you're pumping your chest out over are the easy games to pick. Look at the 30%. That's where schemes, coaching, home field advantage, match-ups come into play.

According to your stats, there should be no drop-off in QB play this year because Tyler Bray, Justin Worley, & Riley Ferguson were all 3* in HS. Same at receiver. Replacing Hunter with North should be no drop-off.

It doesn't work that way.

 

[daj2576]

Good grief!

Yes, in college you can predict with about a 70% accuracy the winners of the games. Big freaking deal! UT has more talent than APSU, :detective::good!:

The 70% you're pumping your chest out over are the easy games to pick. Look at the 30%. That's where schemes, coaching, home field advantage, match-ups come into play.

According to your stats, there should be no drop-off in QB play this year because Tyler Bray, Justin Worley, & Riley Ferguson were all 3* in HS. Same at receiver. Replacing Hunter with North should be no drop-off.

It doesn't work that way.

Well we agree the 70% are the easy games to pick. It is actually closer to 90% when predicting BCS championship games.

Good.

Then we must agree that talent discrepancies predict those wins, right?

It seems then that we are in agreement about all but one thing and that one thing is what was the actual talent discrepancy in this loss to Oregon. I am okay with that.

You seem to be picking up on the fact that coaching and scheme and other factors account for those wins in the 30%. That is exactly what I have said ad nauseum.

So if I understand you correctly we agree on everything, except for the current state of affairs at UT and how that effects the outcomes of games. I am okay with that too.

It seems to me that you just like to be "that guy", you know the one who speaks up at the party to let everyone know how much smarter he is by pointing out the nuance or the finer points of any subject even when he is actually just in agreement.

I feel like our relationship can be defined by what Doc Holliday said in Tombstone: "Yes, but there's just something about him. Something around the eyes, I don't know, reminds me of... me. No. I'm sure of it, I hate him."

 

[daj2576]

daj,

I think the problem is a fundamental one. When using technical analysis, it's good for explaining the past performance, but when it comes to "future" performance it's not a good "predictor". It's good for giving possible indications, but not predictions. Basing the analysis on a narrow group of data categories as predictors leads to more significant outliers.

Like sex panther, 70% of the time, it works...every time.

I get your point but I think you are over complicating things here. There are ways to get to a much higher prediction rate, there are substantive factors that can be brought out to get you to the ability to beat the spread with similar consistency. But, insofar as publishing predictive factors on a free message board, 70% is a pretty stellar rate of prediction.

As a savvy investor you understand how past predictions sometimes are all we have to go off of. If you were looking to invest, and you saw funds that had an 8 year record of returning 100% of your funds on 70% of the picks, and losing 100% of your funds on 30% of the picks (and all picks were the same cost), that data would have to assure you that until an earth shattering paradigm shift occurs, you are looking at a pretty stable investment model.

 

[SmokinBob]

I can't try to justify what happened yesterday but put somethings in perspective.

Last year we gave up 721 total yards to Troy. TROY!
Say that again to yourself, TROY!

Yesterday we gave up 687 yards to Oregon. Oregon's third or fourth stringers are better than anything Troy could have put on the field, and is probably the most explosive offense ever to take a college football field, yet you act like the defense isn't showing some improvement?

It isn't like in the third or fourth quarter Oregon put fans on the field and just had them sit in a drum circle, they put back ups in and continued to run their system.

We are a disciplined football team, even in a very hostile environment we only had 4 penalties for 40 yards. Usually when teams are very out matched and out gunned (and getting the score run up on them) a lack of discipline will show. That didn't happen.

At this point last year we had 21 penalties for 151 yards. This year we have 6 for 57 yards. That in itself is telling.

I didn't see the guys quit on the coach, and I saw that last year a few times with our players (think about Missouri, Florida and Vandy games, or Kentucky the year before as an example).

We got whipped and they kept playing. I see improvement...

As do I!k:

 

[Remy]

... and yet for all that annually drinketh of the koolaid da Ducks offer to swooning believers they run into a team that doth not swoon, that doth not tremble, that simply laces 'em up, goes out, and physically crushes them leaving them in a corner sobbing like schoolgirls. For you see they lacketh a NCAA National Championship and this year shalt yield the same, verily I say unto you, same ol' Ducks they flap a good game but when it comes down to it a fast little guy looking to get out of bounds to keep from getting hit, is not as good as a fast big guy looking to run over somebody and does it as well. I give you 2011 LSU/Ducks game, somebody will be this year's LSU, obviously not us, but they are out there and the ducks will be exposed and roasted ... again.

 

[Boca Vol]

It seems to me that you just like to be "that guy", you know the one who speaks up at the party to let everyone know how much smarter he is by pointing out the nuance or the finer points of any subject even when he is actually just in agreement.

No, that's not it at all. There is no way I was in agreement about the UT/ Oregon game being evenly matched.

I do agree that teams with better talent usually win. Howver, when the talent gap isn't that different, those other factors come into play.

If I understand your reasoning, Bama and Oregon wouldn't be a good match-up given Bama's "talent" advantage. According to your recruiting rankings, Jonny Football, shouldn't be on the field because he isn't the highest rated QB on the team.

 

[daj2576]

No, that's not it at all. There is no way I was in agreement about the UT/ Oregon game being evenly matched.

I do agree that teams with better talent usually win. Howver, when the talent gap isn't that different, those other factors come into play.

If I understand your reasoning, Bama and Oregon wouldn't be a good match-up given Bama's "talent" advantage. According to your recruiting rankings, Jonny Football, shouldn't be on the field because he isn't the highest rated QB on the team.

If Bama and Oregon meet on the field, I would absolutely predict Bama wins based on talent differential. If history has anything to say about it, I would have a 90% chance of being right too.

Johnny Manziel lost to both LSU and Florida last year before beating Bama (who was playing in a trap game the week after LSU). Again, talent averages predicted the outcome of 2 of those 3 games. Manziel is more hype than reality, but he's fun to watch. Saturday's game of aTm and Bama turned out correct for talent too. So, in the 4 games where Manziel has played more talented teams he has lost 3. Seems like the system works even better for him and a&M than the general population.