I still say Vols must beat Ole Miss in Oxford Wed AND win first SEC tourney game to #1

[CAVPUT]

Hopefully the Vols have a good contingent of fans there that that make the short trip over from Memphis to Oxford.
There are fairly cheap tickets available. They seat 9500.

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This one worries me...a lot. Road game....after a huge emotional win...not a great setup for this UT team.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

If the right team shows up, we win any game we want to win. If the right team does not show up, we lose that game and go home. We played well at times against Alabama yesterday, but we also played poorly enough, at times, to have lost it. We have to ; get offensive rebounds, shoot at least 40% from the three, shout down the corner three, keep ZZ from dribbling down the lane and turning the ball over, and shoot open three when open to prevent rushing a shot with 2 seconds left on the clock. To sum its up, we need to ply very well and be aggressive at both ends of the court.

 

[omghulkhands]

Supposedly the confrence tournaments have no bearing on the upper seeds in the ncaa tournament. I don’t really believe that but have heard it for years

Games played over the weekend don’t get counted because the committee sets the bracket EOD Friday or very early Saturday (this isn’t official, but it’s pretty widely accepted as the truth due to how seeding plays out each year. And it makes sense with needing to lock in a lot of logistics)

So this means only the SEC semi’s and finals won’t matter for seeding.

 

[Proud Army Wife]

This one worries me...a lot. Road game....after a huge emotional win...not a great setup for this UT team.

Same. I won’t be shocked for them to come out flat. Hope not.

 

[OrangeCola]

Florida or Alabama can not win the the SECT or even make to the final

 

[VolCalls]

Tell me I'm wrong here......but whenever NCAA can nudge us the wrong way, THEY DO! But until proven otherwise (and I hope I am) we must complete both scenarios above to be #1 seed. In fact, we would be punished as the third (7 overall) or fourth (8 overall) 2 seed pitted inside bracket with the overall 1st or 2nd #1 seed in my opinion if we do get pushed to 2 line. I know its BVS but I've seen it too often.

Disagree that we have to win an SECT game. And I appreciate the self-awareness in acknowledging its BVS driving your rationale.

I believe if we win our last two games we’ll be a #1 seed. However, if we slip and end up as a #2 seed we can’t be in Auburn’s bracket because of conference affiliation.

 

[hUTch2002]

This sounds about right. 2-0, 1 seed probably locked up especially if Florida and bama each drop one more game this week.

1-1 and then it really depends on the Florida and bama games plus maybe even SEC tournament.

At this point, if we lose one of these last 2 we won’t get a 1 seed. Florida won’t lose at home to Ole Miss.

 

[njvols]

win these last two regular season games and I think we are virtually a lock. Tournament game won’t matter.

Lose in Oxford and I think it becomes a little worse than a toss up.

We have the easiest schedule though.

Bama has to play Florida and Auburn

Florida plays Bama and Ole Miss

But if we lose and either of them go 2-0 with that schedule, I think that team enters the drivers seat.

Bama’s late stretch is brutal. Just played #5 and now gets to play #3 and 1.

 

[hUTch2002]

It’s highly likely Tennessee gets a #1 seed.

But, again, I think some of you are undervaluing the conference tournament.

Alabama or Florida winning out (including the tournament) I promise you would get a #1 seed. That’s not likely, but we’re talking possibility not probability.

Winning the sec tournament means getting another win against 2 teams (assuming seeds hold and I know often they don’t) of Auburn, Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. In Alabamas case, they have the potential to win four games against these opponents. Florida has the potential to win three.

Let’s say UT wins out, UF loses to Bama and beats Ole Miss so we finish with the same record. Let’s then assume UT wins Friday and loses Saturday while UF wins the SEC tournament. You think that would jump UF over UT? I don’t. UT played a tougher schedule, especially out of conference where UT has 3 Quad 1 wins, all away from home and 2 true road game. UF has 1 neutral Quad 1 win against UNC. They do have 3 Quad 2 wins out of conference and I believe 2 of those were road but, historically, the conference tournaments haven’t mattered too much barring a new team
taking a spot from a bubble team. Anyway, I think UF is ridiculously good and so is UT. I think UT is a little more predictable and they’re a little less prone to wild swings in play from one game to the next (still happens of course) but UF has a slightly higher ceiling of play. If UF is playing their best we see what you get (Auburn). Maybe it’s not that UT can’t be that because they can if they shoot like they did at Oklahoma, we just haven’t seen it as much as we have from UF. UF is capable of consistently beating solid to good teams by double digits. UT can but they usually play those games closer. That’s probably a better way of saying what I was trying to say. Anyway, lots of words, what are your thoughts on the scenario I started this post with? Maybe Houston will do us both a favor and drop a game but I doubt it.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

I think given the history of Tennessee and higher seeds, we need to just keep winnng to take away any ammo to knock us to a #2. I do think we need to win out the regular season and a loss at home to SC would be pretty bad optics.

I don't think the SECT should matter but to be safe I'd win the first game at least. After that if they knock us to a #2 then eff 'em.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Same. I won’t be shocked for them to come out flat. Hope not.

I agree though I'm hoping we got that one out of our system last week at LSU.

 

[hUTch2002]

We aren’t getting a 1 seed. If the gata wins out they get it. It’s a popularity contest and that never favors UT. They will probably use losing to ky twice against us.
Doesn’t matter. Just win.

Keep winning and we sure will. It mattered a bunch last year and, as posted on here ad nauseum, 1 seeds are twice as likely to make the F4 than a 2 seed. It does matter. I do agree we don’t need to worry about it as a team though, just beat who’s in front of you. It’s fun for us fans to discuss though!

 

[Delmar]

Yep. Any excuse will do. Personally, I think we need to win out and win a game in the SECT to feel somewhat confident. Bama and UF are still very much a threat to get the nod.... especially UF if they also beat Bama. I think our best shot is for Bama to beat UF and Auburn to beat Bama.

Agree. I think they will use any excuse they can to not put in 3 SEC teams as #1 seeds.

 

[hUTch2002]

Thus that come into play:

Florida plays @ Alabama
Alabama plays @ Auburn
Best case is for Alabama to beat Florida and Auburn to beat Alabama.

Tennessee is 10-5 in Quad 1 games
Florida is 6-4 in Quad 1 games
Big advantage Tennessee is total Quad 1 wins and Quad 1 games played.

If Tennessee goes 2-0 they appear to be lock for #1. If they lose to Ole Miss and beat USC it will be determined by the two games above.

I don’t think SEC tourney will be a factor unless a team flames out early and one of the other two runs the table.

I don’t get why people use Quad 1 plus Quad 2 so much. I mean, I understand the committee has likely talked about that before but it should go Quad by Quad. Quad 1 advantage, UT. Quad 2 advantage UF but Q1 is a big advantage for us and should mean more than Q2. When you add them together you’re putting them on equal footing so playing at SC is no different than playing at Auburn. That’s silly.

 

[DooleyOrangePants]

Same. I won’t be shocked for them to come out flat. Hope not.

Wouldn’t shock me. But at the same time, the Bama game was a moment that could transcend traditional thinking and put this team into another gear at the right time.

 

[hUTch2002]

This one worries me...a lot. Road game....after a huge emotional win...not a great setup for this UT team.

It certainly won’t be easy but we’re figuring out how to close games out. We really struggled with that back in January but look at A&M and Bama. Both were excellent. It really feels like we’re peaking at the right time. Great teams who want 1 seeds win games like this, even if by 1. Losing doesn’t mean we aren’t great, it just means we will be a 2 seed.

 

[hUTch2002]

If the right team shows up, we win any game we want to win. If the right team does not show up, we lose that game and go home. We played well at times against Alabama yesterday, but we also played poorly enough, at times, to have lost it. We have to ; get offensive rebounds, shoot at least 40% from the three, shout down the corner three, keep ZZ from dribbling down the lane and turning the ball over, and shoot open three when open to prevent rushing a shot with 2 seconds left on the clock. To sum its up, we need to ply very well and be aggressive at both ends of the court.

Our D suffocated them down the stretch and was the difference. What really helped set up that finish was how we hung close late in the first half. It really felt like they were going to push the lead out to double digits and then Gainey made a 3-point play to stop their momentum. Early in the second half they pushed it out to 9 again and I forget who responded there (ZZ?) but we did respond. This team is better than any Barnes team I’ve seen at taking punches and countering.

 

[omghulkhands]

What if Houston and Florida win out and we lose in the SEC quarters? Don’t think I would call us a lock for a 1 seed.

I’m assuming Houston does win out and gets a 1 seed.

I think it’s 3 SEC teams fighting for the 1 last spot.

I think if either bama or UF wins out AND we do too, then it’s possible a quarters game matters.

 

[tn4elvis]

Disagree that we have to win an SECT game. And I appreciate the self-awareness in acknowledging its BVS driving your rationale.

I believe if we win our last two games we’ll be a #1 seed. However, if we slip and end up as a #2 seed we can’t be in Auburn’s bracket because of conference affiliation.

Auburn does not scare me as much as Duke or Houston. I really feel like we should have beaten Auburn at their place.

 

[omghulkhands]

Auburn does not scare me as much as Duke or Houston. I really feel like we should have beaten Auburn at their place.

Strongly agree.

I’ve watched enough of all of those teams that I genuinely believe we matchup best with Auburn.

Houston probably being the worst matchup.

And Duke while IMO the best team in the country, there is a chance that being super physical with them could shake them (just like a couple years ago)

 

[VolCalls]

Auburn does not scare me as much as Duke or Houston. I really feel like we should have beaten Auburn at their place.

I’m not scared of any of them. We’re one of the best teams in the country. Let’s lace em up.

 

[barney]

Just stack w’s and the rest will take care of itself

 

[volbound1700]

Agree, we need to win out. I wouldn't cry about a #2 seed to hard but it would be fun to be a 1 seed. I do think the 1 seed can be a target on your back sometimes.

 

[livefaith]

exactly I keep seeing this argument that the conference tourneys don't matter. They do up until the sunday game, we lost our 1 seed last year because we lost to Miss St in the opening game

The place in the tourney that you lose has no bearing on anything. It's the opponent that you lose to. The tourney, which is stupid IMHO, is a waste. The committee simply looks at the data of wins and losses.

This redundant tournament always puts me in a questionable thought process. Do you want to go ahead and just lose out that first game, and get your team's legs totally rested for the real tournament? Or, do you want to keep your team's mindset and focus correct and go forward trying to win every game even if becoming a tournament champion put you a few days away from having to play in the real tournament?

 

[99gator]

Let’s say UT wins out, UF loses to Bama and beats Ole Miss so we finish with the same record. Let’s then assume UT wins Friday and loses Saturday while UF wins the SEC tournament. You think that would jump UF over UT? I don’t. UT played a tougher schedule, especially out of conference where UT has 3 Quad 1 wins, all away from home and 2 true road game. UF has 1 neutral Quad 1 win against UNC. They do have 3 Quad 2 wins out of conference and I believe 2 of those were road but, historically, the conference tournaments haven’t mattered too much barring a new team
taking a spot from a bubble team. Anyway, I think UF is ridiculously good and so is UT. I think UT is a little more predictable and they’re a little less prone to wild swings in play from one game to the next (still happens of course) but UF has a slightly higher ceiling of play. If UF is playing their best we see what you get (Auburn). Maybe it’s not that UT can’t be that because they can if they shoot like they did at Oklahoma, we just haven’t seen it as much as we have from UF. UF is capable of consistently beating solid to good teams by double digits. UT can but they usually play those games closer. That’s probably a better way of saying what I was trying to say. Anyway, lots of words, what are your thoughts on the scenario I started this post with? Maybe Houston will do us both a favor and drop a game but I doubt it.

The scenario I originally laid out, which is possible, but I would argue is highly improbable is Florida winning out which means also beating Bama @ Bama and then winning the tournament.

But, for sake of argument, i'll address your scenario where florida loses at Bama and Bama loses to Auburn.

In your scenario, if at the SEC tournament, it went chalk.....right now that would mean Florida would have to beat OleMiss, then Alabama, then Auburn. Bama would have to beat A&M, Florida, then Auburn. Then, yes, I think they would leap frog to a 1 seed.

I think again people are dismissing the human element and I think that it's not entirely data driven. From the Florida resume standpoint, right off the bat, the #1 overall seed would be Auburn who would finish the season (under this scenario) with three losses. Two them would be to Florida and neither of those games would be played in Gainesville. That alone, I think would cause people to pause considering (again under these circumstances), Alabama would be 0-2 vs. Auburn, Tennessee would be 0-2 vs. Auburn (losing in the SEC tourney semis), and Florida would have also split with Alabama (losing @ Alabama, winning at the tournament) and Tennessee on the season.

I could be wrong. And as I've said before, I'm worried about the draw and not the seed. When the bracket comes out, I may be overjoyed to be the #2 seed instead of the #1 seed. Who knows?

I also believe that for this to happen I think the tournament needs to be "chalk". If games at the tournament are against Kentucky, A&M, Ole Miss, etc., because of upsets.....then, I think Alabama and Florida have no shot and I would expect Tennessee to get the nod as the 1 seed even if Bama or Florida won the tournament.