India, Pakistan, and Kashmir

[05_never_again]

doubtful. they have what, half the population? they might stomach losses better than we can, but they can't "absorb" them.

Not only that, but their population also isn't growing. They actually had a higher population in 1999 than they have today. Really poor life expectancy too for an industrialized country, although that has improved in recent years. Russia is a backwards, behind the curve country in a lot of ways.

 

[Matt2496]

The United States has a defense budget that is 9.2x bigger than Russia's AND we spend a smaller percentage of our GDP to get there (3.1% vs. 4.3%). They simply are not a "keep you up at night" threat, period. The United States doesn't have one.

Oh, I agree. Russia isn't a major threat.

China is a far bigger threat IMO.

 

[05_never_again]

Oh, I agree. Russia isn't a major threat.

China is a far bigger threat IMO.

I agree, but they aren't worth losing sleep over either.

 

[LouderVol]

Not only that, but their population also isn't growing. They actually had a higher population in 1999 than they have today. Really poor life expectancy too for an industrialized country, although that has improved in recent years. Russia is a backwards, behind the curve country in a lot of ways.

When you look at how industralized/modernized they are its like comparing the north to the south during the civil war. Despite being twice as big as the US they have fewer roads, airports, navigable rivers (they have more river mileage but not much of it is developed like most of ours), ports, industrial centers. etc etc.

I forget the exact numbers but I think our carrier based aircraft outnumber their entire airforce. Its a pretty telling fact that our navy is the worlds second strongest airforce.

It would be a blood bath no doubt. but if we both flipped the switch and went to war footing the US would be able to win that.

China is a different beast.

 

[05_never_again]

Despite being twice as big as the US they have fewer roads, airports, navigable rivers (they have more river mileage but not much of it is developed like most of ours), ports, industrial centers. etc etc.

The United States has more miles of navigable river than the rest of the world combined. Can also trade simultaneously with Asia and Europe via the oceans given our location. World's largest energy producer, largest food producer. It is really astounding the strategic advantages and resources the US has relative to the rest of the world.

It's really no wonder why the United States has dominated the global landscape since WWII, and odds are will continue to do so for quite some time.

 

[Grand Vol]

doubtful. they have what, half the population? they might stomach losses better than we can, but they can't "absorb" them.

Yes, perhaps I worded it wrongly.

They can stomach greater losses than we can.

 

[hog88]

Yes, perhaps I worded it wrongly.

They can stomach greater losses than we can.

Yes, I believe our populace doesn't have the stomach for another major war unless it was an invasion of our soil.

 

[Orangeburst]

The United States has more miles of navigable river than the rest of the world combined. Can also trade simultaneously with Asia and Europe via the oceans given our location. World's largest energy producer, largest food producer. It is really astounding the strategic advantages and resources the US has relative to the rest of the world.

It's really no wonder why the United States has dominated the global landscape since WWII, and odds are will continue to do so for quite some time.

Maybe just the political rhetoric of the day but as we are divided more than ever into identities I could see a Balkanization. I mean we cannot even agree on on a type of economy. If the feds went full socialist ie healthcare, free college, pass Green Deal etc, do you think all the states would stay united? What binds us together anymore?

 

[05_never_again]

Maybe just the political rhetoric of the day but as we are divided more than ever into identities I could see a Balkanization. I mean we cannot even agree on on a type of economy. If the feds went full socialist ie healthcare, free college, pass Green Deal etc, do you think all the states would stay united? What binds us together anymore?

I think you're losing the forest for the trees.

 

[Grand Vol]

Yes, I believe our populace doesn't have the stomach for another major war unless it was an invasion of our soil.

Even then, depending on who it is, the population might not even care and welcome them with open arms.

"Well, at least you aren't Trump!"

 

[hog88]

Even then, depending on who it is, the population might not even care and welcome them with open arms.

"Well, at least you aren't Trump!"

Good point.

 

[Orangeburst]

I think you're losing the forest for the trees.

Not sure what you mean
I was just referencing no Pax Americana without a United States

 

[05_never_again]

Not sure what you mean
I was just referencing no Pax Americana without a United States

I think you're just reading too much into the political rhetoric of the day, as you said yourself. The United States has been since the end of WWII, is today, and will continue to be a/the dominant player on the world stage in spite of any incompetence or distractions from our leadership.

Remember, in geopolitics, your absolute position isn't all that important. It is your relative position. The US has problems. Many other countries have bigger problems.

 

[Grand Vol]

I think you're just reading too much into the political rhetoric of the day, as you said yourself. The United States has been since the end of WWII, is today, and will continue to be a/the dominant player on the world stage in spite of any incompetence or distractions from our leadership.

Remember, in geopolitics, your absolute position isn't all that important. It is your relative position. The US has problems. Many other countries have bigger problems.

I'm not entirely positive his argument isn't without merit.

 

[05_never_again]

I'm not entirely positive his argument isn't without merit.

Our political leadership can certainly make things harder than they have to be via self-inflicted wounds. Our centrifugal forces might not be as strong as we like them to be, but how strong are they compared to the rest of the world? They are stronger than Europe's, Russia's, or China's. Go back and take a look at Chinese history before the commies. The commies have not been in control there for very long relatively speaking. It's non-stop infighting.

Say Nick Saban (good political leadership) retires, and Alabama hires me to replace him. I'm a poor coach, poor leader, etc. Alabama is screwed, right? Well, not if their competition is high school JV teams. Will Alabama be operating at the same effectiveness as before? No. Are they still the dominant team in the sport? Yes.

 

[Grand Vol]

Our political leadership can certainly make things harder than they have to be via self-inflicted wounds. Our centrifugal forces might not be as strong as we like them to be, but how strong are they compared to the rest of the world?

Say Nick Saban (good political leadership) retires, and Alabama hires me to replace him. I'm a poor coach, poor leader, etc. Alabama is screwed, right? Well, not if their competition is high school JV teams. Will Alabama be operating at the same effectiveness as before? No. Are they still the dominant team in the sport? Yes.

Here's the thing... all great empires in history eventually fall. Whether from internal reasons (discord, political disagreements or economical/sociological breakdown) or from external factors (invasions, etc) or combinations of both and become a shadow of their former self.

Make no mistake, the United States is an empire. And like every empire in history, we will eventually fall. We're a lot closer to internally collapsing than being invaded. And it's only going to get worse.

 

[hog88]

Here's the thing... all great empires in history eventually fall. Whether from internal reasons (discord, political disagreements or economical/sociological breakdown) or from external factors (invasions, etc) or combinations of both and become a shadow of their former self.

Make no mistake, the United States is an empire. And like every empire in history, we will eventually fall. We're a lot closer to internally collapsing than being invaded. And it's only going to get worse.

Agree.

If you really study WWII we were not far from being defeated in the early days of the war which could very well have lead to our collapse. If not for some real dumbazz decisions by the German high command we would have been in real trouble.

 

[Matt2496]

Here's the thing... all great empires in history eventually fall. Whether from internal reasons (discord, political disagreements or economical/sociological breakdown) or from external factors (invasions, etc) or combinations of both and become a shadow of their former self.

Make no mistake, the United States is an empire. And like every empire in history, we will eventually fall. We're a lot closer to internally collapsing than being invaded. And it's only going to get worse.

Agree 100%.

I don't believe we will be invaded but I think an internal collapse is very likely. Hopefully not within my lifetime.

 

[05_never_again]

Here's the thing... all great empires in history eventually fall. Whether from internal reasons (discord, political disagreements or economical/sociological breakdown) or from external factors (invasions, etc) or combinations of both and become a shadow of their former self.

Make no mistake, the United States is an empire. And like every empire in history, we will eventually fall. We're a lot closer to internally collapsing than being invaded. And it's only going to get worse.

Of course they do. And I have no doubt we'll do it to ourselves. But it isn't happening imminently. And it doesn't have to be a spectacular collapse either. The British Empire, for example, did not spectacularly collapse and they are still a wealthy country today. The biggest reason for that is look at who are "rivals" are at the moment. That's why I keep saying geopolitics is about relative, no absolute, standing. If our current situation means we have the flu, then much of the rest of the world has terminal cancer. If perfection, or near perfection, is the standard, then yes, things don't look very good.

Just listen to this guy (Peter Zeihan) give a breakdown of global currencies. It's a great analysis of the relative picture. I worry about QE, the amount of money/credit in the system, and wonder about how all of that is going to be unwound. It's a problem. But wait until you hear about the rest of the world's issues. Suddenly, it doesn't sound so bad.

 

[05_never_again]

Agree.

If you really study WWII we were not far from being defeated in the early days of the war which could very well have lead to our collapse. If not for some real dumbazz decisions by the German high command we would have been in real trouble.

I shudder to think what the outcome of the war would have been if Germany didn't invade the Soviet Union, or at least didn't invade the Soviet Union when they chose to. Once they got bogged down there, we were able to end the war in about a year and a half.

 

[hog88]

I shudder to think what the outcome of the war would have been if Germany didn't invade the Soviet Union, or at least didn't invade the Soviet Union when they chose to. Once they got bogged down there, we were able to end the war in about a year and a half.

They invaded the Soviet Union over a year before we got to North Africa. If Hitler would have listened to his Generals he could have wrapped up Russia before we even got into the war. If they would have listened to Rommel we might have been pushed back into the sea.

There was a tremendous amount of infighting and backbiting between the allies (the generals) each were trying to fight the war from their own little fifedom. Montgomery should have been relieved in Dec 1942 and sent home.

 

[tvolsfan]

Maybe just the political rhetoric of the day but as we are divided more than ever into identities I could see a Balkanization. I mean we cannot even agree on on a type of economy. If the feds went full socialist ie healthcare, free college, pass Green Deal etc, do you think all the states would stay united? What binds us together anymore?

People should never use the term Balkanization to describe the US in its current form.

 

[Orangeburst]

I shudder to think what the outcome of the war would have been if Germany didn't invade the Soviet Union, or at least didn't invade the Soviet Union when they chose to. Once they got bogged down there, we were able to end the war in about a year and a half.

How we were so unprepared for WWII was unacceptable and I hold FDR responsible.The rest of the world was at war for several years and we did not think we would have to get in the fight as a world power. Incompetent thinking just like Mr Progressive himself Woodrow Wilson

 

[Orangeburst]

People should never use the term Balkanization to describe the US in its current form.

What are you babbling about?

 

[05_never_again]

They invaded the Soviet Union over a year before we got to North Africa. If Hitler would have listened to his Generals he could have wrapped up Russia before we even got into the war. If they would have listened to Rommel we might have been pushed back into the sea.

There was a tremendous amount of infighting and backbiting between the allies (the generals) each were trying to fight the war from their own little fifedom. Montgomery should have been relieved in Dec 1942 and sent home.

There was no way he could have wrapped up the Soviets in that short amount of time - that was the problem. He had just overrun Poland, the Low Countries, and France from Sept 1939 - mid-1940. Hitler sat on that for slightly less than a year, then bit off way more than he could chew by invading the Soviet Union in mid-1941. He actually made a bunch of territorial gains until 1943, when he hit Moscow/Stalingrad/St Petersburg and never could break them.

If he sat on his initial gains in continental Europe, consolidated, etc., there's no telling what he might have been able to do after that. He also had plans drawn up for an invasion of Britain, which might have succeeded.