Inflation in your World

#101
#101
lawgator1 said:
The annual inflation rate has been projected to be 5.3%. Many think this is temporary and is caused by commodity shortages and supply chain disruption primarily attributable to Covid.

In my own experience I am seeing two phenomena. First, there are many things you simply cannot get at all. Appliances being a main one. and chip shortages, which if I recall correctly was emerging as a problem pre-Covid, are causing auto prices to go up.

Restaurant prices seem to me to be up 50 to 100%. That is my own experience at lunch, in particular. I see this as a function of both labor shortage issues and supply issues.

So what is the experience in your own World on this and do you think all or some are temporary?
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You can’t find lawn equipment around here. Has to be shipped. Definitely yes on the prices of eating out, up 100%.
 
#103
#103
Depends on what you mean by my world.

Food prices, and availability have changed. And not for the positive.

Computer availability. You cant just go pick up pretty much whatever you want from a Best Buy any more.

Construction has been devastated. Most prices are still 50% over a normal year. With huge fluctuations. Been told prices can vary +10% a day. Steel, wood, gyp, paint, tpo roofing, rigid insulation, have all disappeared from Atlanta, and maybe other parts of the nation, at various times over the last year or so. The only comparison was when we couldnt get concrete for three months because of Mercedes Benz construction. But theres not a major construction project to explain it this time.

Labor shortages have been killer too. I have one project that should probably have 15-20 frames at it a day, they are averaging 3. Contractor has told me some days it's only 1, which might as well be 0. Some of the more advanced trades arent as bad, maybe 50% participation, but well below what it should be, but low/no skill labor just doesnt exist.

Lead times on items have grown as well. Sometimes it is just transportation issues, but it's just as likely to be labor or material shortages on their end. Lights were typically 2 weeks if it wasnt off the shelf, but now even stuff "off the shelf" is 6 weeks in most cases. LEDs are getting hit by the chip shortages.

In a typical year the contractors buy out their projects as they go along, depending on the item they may do it a couple months in advance. Right now one of my projects about to go under construction is trying to go ahead and buy whatever they can, even if they dont need it for a year. And on that project they still havent officially signed a contract with the client, so they could get stiffed for millions of dollars and have no recourse. That's how extreme things are.

At least what I am seeing things are on a dangerous tipping point in the field of construction.
 
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#104
#104
Supply chain issues are driving much of it. Surprisingly we hit a sweet spot for building our house by signing the contract last December before the crazy surge. We were buying all the fixtures and appliances through my wife's work so that wasn't really an issue either since we ordered and the warehouse would hold. We did deliver or fixtures to the plumber yesterday and they were shocked we had everything. Said they are looking and multiple houses not hitting the closing date by a month or 2 because of missing items.
 
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#105
#105
utvolpj said:
Supply chain issues are driving much of it. Surprisingly we hit a sweet spot for building our house by signing the contract last December before the crazy surge. We were buying all the fixtures and appliances through my wife's work so that wasn't really an issue either since we ordered and the warehouse would hold. We did deliver or fixtures to the plumber yesterday and they were shocked we had everything. Said they are looking and multiple houses not hitting the closing date by a month or 2 because of missing items.
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It’s been a real problem
 
#106
#106
Orangeslice13 said:
It’s been a real problem
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We support 6 appliance DCs, soon to be 7, for a big box retailer and it's crazy to listen to the inventory issues. My wife supports the website marketing for one of the largest wholesalers and they are constantly being told to remove whole categories because of supply issues. I remember some brief shortages when I was in sales on things like copper and steel pipe/fittings but nothing really like this. Being asked to remove all pvc dwv fittings from their site is nuts
 
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#107
#107
Septic said:
I say there's no problems, not with availability of BR's. I'm writing new ones on barrier islands on the gulf. If you can get them here, I'd wager you could get them anywhere. The costs are still 15-20% higher than they were last year, give or take. Down here there is no excess material to be had or I'm sure my GC's would be attempting that as well. It's a knife fight in a phone booth to get what they can get to begin with.
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Sorry, I must’ve worded it poorly. BR policies are not hard to get, the issue is a project owner placed a BR policy a year ago and now the cost of materials has gone through the roof and the policy limit is no longer adequate. That 80, 90, or 100% coinsurance clause isn’t negotiated out by whoever is representing the project owner. When we place them it’s not an issue but we don’t place them all.
 
#112
#112
ClearwaterVol said:
I bought a Ram 1500 two years ago and the dealership called and offered me 6k over what I paid.
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I'd believe it. Went to my dealerships website and they have a similar truck to mine that's 2 years older with less options asking more than what I paid for mine new in 2019.
 
#113
#113
I sold my 1980 Pontiac LeMon that hasn't been started in over 10 years and just sits covered in my garage for 10K. It is quite possibly the worst vehicle since the Yugo. It had a "powerful" 3 cylinder engine that burned a quart of oil a month. I even told the guy that it was not a good vehicle. It's like we are living in a post apocalyptic war zone where anything with wheels will sell for a high price.
 
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#116
#116
landscapingvol said:
I sold my 1980 Pontiac LeMon that hasn't been started in over 10 years and just sits covered in my garage for 10K. It is quite possibly the worst vehicle since the Yugo. It had a "powerful" 3 cylinder engine that burned a quart of oil a month. I even told the guy that it was not a good vehicle. It's like we are living in a post apocalyptic war zone where anything with wheels will sell for a high price.
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Getting closer everyday. One reason I never chose to get in bed with the branch covidians. I'd rather take my chances and continue with life as normal, than to play it "safe" and possibly hand a 3rd world country over to my children.
 
#117
#117
Inflation is hidden and rising in every sector which makes me laugh when I hear people say that inflation isn't hitting them.

Our industry is a dead expense to our clients, no way to resell what we provide but absolutely necessary for their operations. We're on our 4th rate increase this year and if anyone thinks that isn't getting passed along you're crazy.
 
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#118
#118
hUTch2002 said:
Sorry, I must’ve worded it poorly. BR policies are not hard to get, the issue is a project owner placed a BR policy a year ago and now the cost of materials has gone through the roof and the policy limit is no longer adequate. That 80, 90, or 100% coinsurance clause isn’t negotiated out by whoever is representing the project owner. When we place them it’s not an issue but we don’t place them all.
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Ah yes, I think many of my GC's are lazy when it comes to worrying about this. They set the build limit, get the policy and move on. I've got a $9mm BR for 10/1 with a 100% co-insurance clause that I'm sure will be purchased and never thought of again. We've had very little success in negotiating the co-insurance rates down. Funny thing, a few of the carriers won't bind unless we tell them what the builders plans are in the event of riots or civil commotion. Usually I just answer with, "lock up the goods and call the police." Seems to be good enough.
 
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#119
#119
Septic said:
Ah yes, I think many of my GC's are lazy when it comes to worrying about this. They set the build limit, get the policy and move on. I've got a $9mm BR for 10/1 with a 100% co-insurance clause that I'm sure will be purchased and never thought of again. We've had very little success in negotiating the co-insurance rates down. Funny thing, a few of the carriers won't bind unless we tell them what the builders plans are in the event of riots or civil commotion. Usually I just answer with, "lock up the goods and call the police." Seems to be good enough.
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Well and you’re down in Florida. I’m sure that’s a whole different environment down there! I’d bet there aren’t any exceptions to condo exclusions on the GL after that Miami disaster. I stand by my assessment. I enjoy arguing with you and we rarely agree but I bet we’d get along just fine in person. I have plenty of friends who have different political opinions. Politics isn’t everything. Have a good Friday Sep!
 
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#120
#120
lawgator1 said:
The annual inflation rate has been projected to be 5.3%. Many think this is temporary and is caused by commodity shortages and supply chain disruption primarily attributable to Covid.

In my own experience I am seeing two phenomena. First, there are many things you simply cannot get at all. Appliances being a main one. and chip shortages, which if I recall correctly was emerging as a problem pre-Covid, are causing auto prices to go up.

Restaurant prices seem to me to be up 50 to 100%. That is my own experience at lunch, in particular. I see this as a function of both labor shortage issues and supply issues.

So what is the experience in your own World on this and do you think all or some are temporary?
Click to expand...
Quit trying to make excuses for Uncle Joe’s pathological ineptitude. Everyone can see the clear evidence of it every time they go to the gas station, grocery store, or anywhere else coin of the realm is accepted. Inflation is real, it is endemic, and it is crippling. And at its core it comes down to the basic principle that printing currency can never adequately substitute for the production of actual value by the work force. The Austrian School of Economics always trumps (pun intended) the Keynesian.
 
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#121
#121
hUTch2002 said:
Well and you’re down in Florida. I’m sure that’s a whole different environment down there! I’d bet there aren’t any exceptions to condo exclusions on the GL after that Miami disaster. I stand by my assessment. I enjoy arguing with you and we rarely agree but I bet we’d get along just fine in person. I have plenty of friends who have different political opinions. Politics isn’t everything. Have a good Friday Sep!
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Agreed. And yes, we've had a few of our condo's call us up and ask for higher excess/umbrellas limits. These (surplus) carriers are pretty much unwilling to go past 3 or 4 million over the D&O unless the financials warrant support it. I've already started seeing residential condo application questions get added that ask about structural engineering inspections.

Not sure if you've dug into the NFIP Flood Risk rating 2.0 but it's about to blow up the Florida real estate market - and people have NO idea it's about to happen. I rated my own house yesterday and if I were purchasing my house new after 10/1, my flood insurance policy would be $5,900 annually. My current cost is $572. Fortunately, i'm in X zone so there's no lender requirement... My office building is going from $3600 annually to $6800 annually. Fortunately the max increase is still capped at 18% per year.
 
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#122
#122
Septic said:
Agreed. And yes, we've had a few of our condo's call us up and ask for higher excess/umbrellas limits. These (surplus) carriers are pretty much unwilling to go past 3 or 4 million over the D&O unless the financials warrant support it. I've already started seeing residential condo application questions get added that ask about structural engineering inspections.

Not sure if you've dug into the NFIP Flood Risk rating 2.0 but it's about to blow up the Florida real estate market - and people have NO idea it's about to happen. I rated my own house yesterday and if I were purchasing my house new after 10/1, my flood insurance policy would be $5,900 annually. My current cost is $572. Fortunately, i'm in X zone so there's no lender requirement... My office building is going from $3600 annually to $6800 annually. Fortunately the max increase is still capped at 18% per year.
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What do you see happening overall with the insurance regarding condos in FL. Wife's dad wants us to partner up and buy a condo on the gulf and I need ammo to shoot this crap down.
 
#123
#123
hog88 said:
What do you see happening overall with the insurance regarding condos in FL. Wife's dad wants us to partner up and buy a condo on the gulf and I need ammo to shoot this crap down.
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Depends on a few factors, but property coverage for the associations has gone up about 15 - 20% this year on top of about 15% last year. I attached a flyer that we've used to demonstrate why, it's from last year. As far as individual condo insurance, it's tightened up slightly - but there are still lots of competitive HO-6 carriers that are vying for business. South Florida on the east coast is really in a crisis for home owners, you can't get a standard company to write your home if your roof is older than about 10 years, so everything is being written in Citizens (state run org that was designed to be the insurer of last resort.) Which sucks for both the agent and the insured, they are a huge pain to work with, the commission sucks and they're probably on a path to being what would be considered insolvent if they were a standard company.

Most of the price hikes are based on assignment of benefits (fraud). A whole cottage industry spun up between lawyers and contractors wherein contractors shop up at people's doors with promises of new roofs for the price of the hurricane deductible (usually 2%), the homeowner say's "sure" and signs the paperwork. Now the contractor and lawyer have had the policy benefits assigned to them and they get to "stand in the shoes" of the insured. Then they immediately file suit against the insurer, no claim summitted mind you - straight to demands. What we usually see is the contractor filing suit for 30 - 40% more than the cost of the roof replacement cost. The contractors and lawyers know that the insurer will more than likely pay the inflated cost than bear the cost of litigation on top of paying for the roof. It's cheaper to settle. And it's happening all over Florida, two company's just went out of business due to this. (Gulfstream and Universal NA)

It's been so successful in lining the pockets of the crooks that now that the ability make claims on Irma losses is over - they simply chase bad weather all over the state. find out if there were straight line winds in a neighbor hood and start knocking on doors. It actually an easier sell than hurricane wind losses because it's usually a flat deductible ($2,500) so there's even less out of pocket for the homeowner.
 

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#125
#125
OrangeTsar said:
Quit trying to make excuses for Uncle Joe’s pathological ineptitude. Everyone can see the clear evidence of it every time they go to the gas station, grocery store, or anywhere else coin of the realm is accepted. Inflation is real, it is endemic, and it is crippling. And at its core it comes down to the basic principle that printing currency can never adequately substitute for the production of actual value by the work force. The Austrian School of Economics always trumps (pun intended) the Keynesian.
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Don't worry it's "temporary", it is rare to go in a business that isn't short on workers or out of certain goods. The production simply isn't there to meet the needs of the artificial demand created by continued stimulus checks.
 
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