Interesting game preview from a poster on the Bama board

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

This must be the only intelligent human in the state, but he makes some really good points. Shut down our run game, and we tend to fold.

Now that being said, they are talking like Alabama’s D-Line is a different level than what we have played. LSU’s D-line was also supposed to be world beaters, but we cut through them like butter. It’s quite possible our O-line is much better than we are giving them credit for.

So, Tennessee obviously has a very good offensive system under Josh Heupel. They play fast, and they run a ton of plays. Hendon Hooker deserves his praise and rightfully so. He is the best QB Tennessee has had since Josh Dobbs, and he does a nice job within their offense. However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold. So far this season, Tennessee has faced the following rush defenses: Ball St (115th), Pittsburgh (42nd), Akron (116th), Florida (110th), and LSU (55th). Tennessee ran the ball for 218 on Ball St (59 Pts), 238 on Akron (63 Pts), 227 on UF (38 Pts), and 263 on LSU (40 pts). However, when they played Pittsburgh, they were held to 91 total rushing yards. Guess how many points they scored in regulation? 27 PTS.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "But that's one game." It is one game so far this season, so let's do some digging from last season.

Last year's Tennessee team, when Hooker officially became the full-time starter, had 2 games where their run game was held severely below their rushing average. Guess what two games those were? Georgia & Alabama. The results? Against UGA, they were held to 55 total rushing yards, and recorded 17 total points. Against Alabama, they were held to 65 total rushing yards, and only recorded 24 total points.

So, we have 3 games (UGA 2021, Bama 2021, and Pittsburgh 2022) where Tennessee's offense, when they faced a fairly good-elite rush defenses, hit a ceiling of about 27 points at most. The point of this post is Alabama currently ranks top 3 in terms of power 5 schools in rush defense this year in terms of YPC allowed. Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards, and they are allowing 3.90 YPC on the year. Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most. There's not a world where Tennessee throws for a country mile and doesn't even eclipse 100 yards rushing. Hendon Hooker cannot operate that offense against elite teams when he does not have an effective running game.

Hookers entire passing attack is predicated on play action/screen game.

According to PFF,

True drop back passing yards this season: 302 yds

Screen Yardage: 189 yds

Play Action Yardage: 941 Yds

If Hendon Hooker requires that much play action to be successful, our pass rush aka Cheetah Package, will have a field day. There simply won't be enough time every time to get quality plays off being that play action reliant against the best pass rush in CFB. This is not a good matchup for Tennessee, imo and I have not even mentioned them trotting out the 128th ranked pass defense in football either.

 

[UTVOLFAN]

To be fair, shut down pretty much any team's run game, and they lose.

 

[CR-vol]

And our 128th ranked pass defense has done enough to win the games. AR had a career day and it got him a big L.

 

[OHvol40]

Brilliant. If you can make an offense one dimensional it’s easier to defend.

My favorite part is how they didn’t mention the numbers behind the rushing offenses Bama has faced.

If this person wants to place a wager that UT will score 27 or less in this game, I would take that wager… doubt they would though. Just trying to convince themselves that they aren’t about to step into Knoxville and lose.

 

[JettVol]

Makes some good points. The issue is can they stop the our run game with only their front 4? if they can't they'll have to dial up some blitzes and then they open themselves to Hooker getting loose, or throwing into the blitz. Either way I like our chances in this game. Also if Young is not 100% our pass rush isn't too shabby either and can cause problems for them.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

The bama poster probably didn’t even watch the Pitt game. It was our first road test of the year against a solid team. We also played about a C – minus and still managed to win. Haynes King nearly beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa a few days ago and he sucked prior to that game. I like our chances with Hooker in Neyland.

 

[37620VOL]

The bama poster probably didn’t even watch the Pitt game. It was our first road test of the year against a solid team. We also played about a C – minus and still managed to win. Haynes King nearly beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa a few days ago and he sucked prior to that game. I like our chances with Hooker in Neyland.

I definitely feel like we left 20 points on the field in that game.

 

[fossilfiction]

And I just know one of the responses he received was just "Roll Tide" as a response to his research and well-structured thoughts.

 

[1974Vol]

If Bryce Young is 100% and plays we lose. If he's out we win. End of analysis

 

[CNCVol88]

If Bryce Young is 100% and plays we lose. If he's out we win. End of analysis

There's a zero percent chance he's 100%

 

[knoxville7]

solid post from a bama fan that’s out kicked his mental coverage so to speak it seems.

its those play action passes that will keep that bama pass rush in check just a bit, that slight hesitation is all Hendon needs. Tennessee doesn’t have to have 10+ yard runs for the offense to be successful. They just need to avoid the negative runs that put them behind the chains. that’s all it takes for them to keep the offense on track.

 

[Daniel_Lincolns_Foot]

I mean, I can't be positive, but I'd like to think that Heupel and the offensive staff have taken into account that they'll be facing a stellar defensive unit--the best we've faced all season--and are trying to figure out a way to adapt the game plan accordingly.

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

If Bryce Young is 100% and plays we lose. If he's out we win. End of analysis

And Florida always beats us no matter what! And LSU hardly ever loses in Death Valley!

 

[UTVOLFAN]

If Bryce Young is 100% and plays we lose. If he's out we win. End of analysis

Horrible analysis.

 

[sjt18]

Well... that might still be pretty biased. UT wasn't limited to 27 points by Pitt because UT couldn't run. They were limited because UT kept making mistakes that kept the O off the field. That could happen again of course but when your TOP split is 25 minutes to 35 minutes and you still produce over 400 yds of O... They didn't stop your O.

That last portion is pretty deceptive. The "play action" UT uses much of the time is pretty token. It takes a split second to do and is designed only to make DB's and LB's hesitate.

Of course the analysis is also one sided. Bama indeed has a highly rated run D. But consider the competition like he did for UT:

Utah St is the #60 rushing O in the country which is skewed high by their other competition. Bama held them to 79 yds... the following week FCS Weber St would hold them to 129 and then UNLV would old them to 96. They have improved some but are still a terrible 2-4 football team.​

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Texas is better. Bama held the nation's #47 rushing O to 79 also. Of course their number is also skewed by a 298 performance vs UTSA. ULM held them to 134. WVU held them to 110. And Texas more or less sold out to throwing the ball. They found something they liked and threw for 292 yds vs Bama's D. That alone isn't a good sign for Bama vs UT.​

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Next they held ULM to 78 yds. They currently average 143 ypg against all opponents for 82nd in FBS. They're 2-4 with one game over 200 yds rushing vs ULL.​

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Vandy... besides being Vandy is 56th in the country in rushing at 167.5 per game.... but that's pretty heavily skewed by their opener vs Hawaii where they had 404 yds vs the country's worst team. After Hawaii, their best rushing performance was 179 vs FCS Elon.... who they only beat 42-31.​

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Arkansas is a good rushing team. But then again... they had a pretty good day vs Bama with 187 yds and a 3.67 unadjusted ypc. Bama held them to 60 yds and 1 ypc under their season average.​

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They held TAM to 70 yds which sounds pretty amazing except that TAM inexplicably has the nation's 100th rushing O. Not that explaining a team as bad as they are with that much talent is easy... but Achane... and 120 ypg total? So Bama held them to 50 yds under their season average... and should have lost to them. Haynes King... yep him... completed 25 passes for over 250 yds against Bama WITHOUT A RUN GAME TO SPEAK OF.​

So while our good friend from Bama put a lot of work into looking at one half of the equation... he ignored the other half completely. Bama has a GREAT and talented D. But just like UT's O has to be viewed within the context of who they played... so does Bama's D. Bama is indeed in another class compared to the D's UT has played. However I would say that's even more the case of UT's O vs their D.

Here is how Bama's previous opponents rank nationally in total O:

Utah St- 95
Texas- 36
ULM- 112
Vandy- 84
Arkansas-24
TAM- 109

Arkansas at 24 averages 462 ypg. UT avgs 548 and is 1st in the nation.

So there is the other half of that analysis.

PS- Bama has had two close calls. In neither game did the opponent run the ball well. Both however passed for over 250 vs Bama's avg of 166 allowed... and both of those teams had issues at QB. Texas had to go to a back up. TAM had to play King.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

HOLY CRAP!

I always heard that the University of Alabama had a Ph.D. program. And I was always like, "okay, so where is the Ph.D?"

This must be him! This is the PhD for the University of Alabama. We found him!


[lol seriously, that's a good post by him. good analysis. I'm thankful he doesn't work for Nick]

EDIT for a serious p.s.: We'll see your Bama PhD and raise you an SJT. We have our expert analysts too, Bama. So there. Heh.

 

[Vol$_Deep_11_9]

And our 128th ranked pass defense has done enough to win the games. AR had a career day and it got him a big L.

When you jump teams like we have this season for the most part, run defense is gonna look a lot better and pass defense is gonna look a little worse than it really is.

 

[LadyVolette]

The bama poster probably didn’t even watch the Pitt game. It was our first road test of the year against a solid team. We also played about a C – minus and still managed to win. Haynes King nearly beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa a few days ago and he sucked prior to that game. I like our chances with Hooker in Neyland.

Me too

 

[VolFanatic27]

This is the problem with relying on stats and not watching the games. The issue with trying to shut down our run game, that he doesn’t address, is that we have a stacked WR room ready to take advantage of one-on-one matchups and Bama’s secondary is their weakness on defense. We don’t have to have to rush for a first down every time to run this offense, a few yards will do fine to set up the next long completion. To hurt this offense you have to both consistently hold us to negative yards rushing and defend our insane passing game. With our tempo very few teams can do both.

 

[Allvols1996]

Brilliant. If you can make an offense one dimensional it’s easier to defend.

My favorite part is how they didn’t mention the numbers behind the rushing offenses Bama has faced.

If this person wants to place a wager that UT will score 27 or less in this game, I would take that wager… doubt they would though. Just trying to convince themselves that they aren’t about to step into Knoxville and lose.

If UT wants to run successfully, they need to spread out. Use that options toss. Let Hooker throw some short stuff in the flat. RPOs. Don’t allow Bama to stack the box. Get them going one way and create space. Don’t think your Oline can just plow holes. Bama has a different kind of athlete on the D line.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

What he's missing is against Pitt we didn't really use Hookers legs in the gameplan and since Florida we have utilized them a great deal and that's what has really opened up our run game as well as just better having integrated guys like Bru in the passing attack.

At Pitt we were abnormally sloppy on offense.

He's still right though. Small and Wright need to be able to pick up some yards. Can't afford for them to just get squashed at the line of scrimmage all game. I don't see us gashing them, but I think it will be a respectable running effort because of Hendon.

Hendon running and Tillman being back means that we are literally unstoppable on offense.

 

[sjt18]

If UT wants to run successfully, they need to spread out. Use that options toss. Let Hooker throw some short stuff in the flat. RPOs. Don’t allow Bama to stack the box. Get them going one way and create space. Don’t think your Oline can just plow holes. Bama has a different kind of athlete on the D line.

Not being rude intentionally but have you listened or watched anyone break down Heupel's O and philosophy?

UT takes unusually large splits in addition to running fast. Those two things work together. D's have to show quickly whether they're stacking the box or giving help on receivers. Some teams like LSU apparently like to disguise their D pre-snap. UT's tempo prevents that to a great degree. D's barely have time to line up much less shift or line up in exotic ways. That's another thing UT's tempo inhibits in a team like Bama. Bama likes doing exotic things in their D front. You have to have time to call your play and get lined up properly to do that.

I hope Heupel doesn't give them time to breath.

If Bama decides to take away the run and commit more to the pass rush then UT will try to take advantage of single coverage, screens, slants, etc. Trips to one side with safety help over the top essentially guarantees that your guy to the boundary on the other side gets man to man if they go 6 in the box. UT also has some ability to dictate an opponent NOT put 7 in the box. Have you noticed them motioning the wing back out? With 7 in the box, someone has to either go with that TE or else you have two blockers on 2 DB's and a quick screen to a WR outside the numbers. IIRC, that's pretty much how UT toasted UK on that first screen pass TD last year.

 

[UT-Rex]

Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most.

Re: So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most.


Calling VFL-82-JP --

can you give us a comparative breakdown of bama VS their games Texas (W, 20-19) and A&M (W, 24-20) ?

 

[Remy]

I mean, I can't be positive, but I'd like to think that Heupel and the offensive staff have taken into account that they'll be facing a stellar defensive unit--the best we've faced all season--and are trying to figure out a way to adapt the game plan accordingly.

I'm thinking they've been game planning every team on our schedule since before the season started. Updating each week as the variables change. Finalizing their macro planning down to micro managing it by the entire staff on the actual game week per opponent.

 

[LouderVol]

Well... that might still be pretty biased. UT wasn't limited to 27 points by Pitt because UT couldn't run. They were limited because UT kept making mistakes that kept the O off the field. That could happen again of course but when your TOP split is 25 minutes to 35 minutes and you still produce over 400 yds of O... They didn't stop your O.

That last portion is pretty deceptive. The "play action" UT uses much of the time is pretty token. It takes a split second to do and is designed only to make DB's and LB's hesitate.

Of course the analysis is also one sided. Bama indeed has a highly rated run D. But consider the competition like he did for UT:

Utah St is the #60 rushing O in the country which is skewed high by their other competition. Bama held them to 79 yds... the following week FCS Weber St would hold them to 129 and then UNLV would old them to 96. They have improved some but are still a terrible 2-4 football team.​

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Texas is better. Bama held the nation's #47 rushing O to 79 also. Of course their number is also skewed by a 298 performance vs UTSA. ULM held them to 134. WVU held them to 110. And Texas more or less sold out to throwing the ball. They found something they liked and threw for 292 yds vs Bama's D. That alone isn't a good sign for Bama vs UT.​

​

Next they held ULM to 78 yds. They currently average 143 ypg against all opponents for 82nd in FBS. They're 2-4 with one game over 200 yds rushing vs ULL.​

​

Vandy... besides being Vandy is 56th in the country in rushing at 167.5 per game.... but that's pretty heavily skewed by their opener vs Hawaii where they had 404 yds vs the country's worst team. After Hawaii, their best rushing performance was 179 vs FCS Elon.... who they only beat 42-31.​

​

Arkansas is a good rushing team. But then again... they had a pretty good day vs Bama with 187 yds and a 3.67 unadjusted ypc. Bama held them to 60 yds and 1 ypc under their season average.​

​

They held TAM to 70 yds which sounds pretty amazing except that TAM inexplicably has the nation's 100th rushing O. Not that explaining a team as bad as they are with that much talent is easy... but Achane... and 120 ypg total? So Bama held them to 50 yds under their season average... and should have lost to them. Haynes King... yep him... completed 25 passes for over 250 yds against Bama WITHOUT A RUN GAME TO SPEAK OF.​

So while our good friend from Bama put a lot of work into looking at one half of the equation... he ignored the other half completely. Bama has a GREAT and talented D. But just like UT's O has to be viewed within the context of who they played... so does Bama's D. Bama is indeed in another class compared to the D's UT has played. However I would say that's even more the case of UT's O vs their D.

Here is how Bama's previous opponents rank nationally in total O:

Utah St- 95
Texas- 36
ULM- 112
Vandy- 84
Arkansas-24
TAM- 109

Arkansas at 24 averages 462 ypg. UT avgs 548 and is 1st in the nation.

So there is the other half of that analysis.

PS- Bama has had two close calls. In neither game did the opponent run the ball well. Both however passed for over 250 vs Bama's avg of 166 allowed... and both of those teams had issues at QB. Texas had to go to a back up. TAM had to play King.

And Arkansas's game is where KJ Jefferson didnt finish. Making Arkansas one dimensional, and removing their second leading rusher, so Arkansas was easier to defend.

The texas game was similar. Hurt the starting qb. Making them one dimensional to the run, and you can control the run with no pass threat.

Seems like the main thing is we need to keep Hooker health. Which doesnt take a Bama PHD to figure out.