Interesting game preview from a poster on the Bama board

[UTwild82]

This must be the only intelligent human in the state, but he makes some really good points. Shut down our run game, and we tend to fold.

Now that being said, they are talking like Alabama’s D-Line is a different level than what we have played. LSU’s D-line was also supposed to be world beaters, but we cut through them like butter. It’s quite possible our O-line is much better than we are giving them credit for.

So, Tennessee obviously has a very good offensive system under Josh Heupel. They play fast, and they run a ton of plays. Hendon Hooker deserves his praise and rightfully so. He is the best QB Tennessee has had since Josh Dobbs, and he does a nice job within their offense. However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold. So far this season, Tennessee has faced the following rush defenses: Ball St (115th), Pittsburgh (42nd), Akron (116th), Florida (110th), and LSU (55th). Tennessee ran the ball for 218 on Ball St (59 Pts), 238 on Akron (63 Pts), 227 on UF (38 Pts), and 263 on LSU (40 pts). However, when they played Pittsburgh, they were held to 91 total rushing yards. Guess how many points they scored in regulation? 27 PTS.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "But that's one game." It is one game so far this season, so let's do some digging from last season.

Last year's Tennessee team, when Hooker officially became the full-time starter, had 2 games where their run game was held severely below their rushing average. Guess what two games those were? Georgia & Alabama. The results? Against UGA, they were held to 55 total rushing yards, and recorded 17 total points. Against Alabama, they were held to 65 total rushing yards, and only recorded 24 total points.

So, we have 3 games (UGA 2021, Bama 2021, and Pittsburgh 2022) where Tennessee's offense, when they faced a fairly good-elite rush defenses, hit a ceiling of about 27 points at most. The point of this post is Alabama currently ranks top 3 in terms of power 5 schools in rush defense this year in terms of YPC allowed. Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards, and they are allowing 3.90 YPC on the year. Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most. There's not a world where Tennessee throws for a country mile and doesn't even eclipse 100 yards rushing. Hendon Hooker cannot operate that offense against elite teams when he does not have an effective running game.

Hookers entire passing attack is predicated on play action/screen game.

According to PFF,

True drop back passing yards this season: 302 yds

Screen Yardage: 189 yds

Play Action Yardage: 941 Yds

If Hendon Hooker requires that much play action to be successful, our pass rush aka Cheetah Package, will have a field day. There simply won't be enough time every time to get quality plays off being that play action reliant against the best pass rush in CFB. This is not a good matchup for Tennessee, imo and I have not even mentioned them trotting out the 128th ranked pass defense in football either.

That's a damn good analysis, honestly.

 

[ChattanoogaVol25]

Yes please bring the Alabama safeties into the box. Game will quickly get out of hand

 

[gr82batnvol]

I think a couple of elements to Hooker’s game that have vastly improved are his mechanics and his ability to adjust to pressure. When the d line is on top of him, he sees his lanes and takes off. Last year, I felt like he folded when the protection broke down. This year, he seems to have a MUCH better read on things and he handles the pressure. Even last week with him stepping up in the pocket…that’s evidence of him maturing. I’ll even say he’s matured a great deal since the Pitt game. Alabama will have to deal with more than just our RBs, that QB option is always there. Personally, I think his running threat has opened things up for Small and company since Pitt.

I think looking at last year would be a massive mistake for Alabama. They know they have their hands full.

 

[UT-Rex]

Bama giving up 19 and 20 points to teams far less offensively prolific than ours ... that sure doesn't argue well that they're going to hold us to "a ceiling of 27."

Go Vols!

Excellent !

You're looking at our offense,

but, I'm focusing on our defense / on the Texas and A&M defenses holding bama to 20 and 24 points respectively . The bamer's breakdown nets UT's offense "27" points ceiling.

I'm wondering how bama's run game faired, against Tex and A&M (?). I'll look it up.

This is shaping up to be a perfect storm in our favor -- Go Vols !

Re: So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most.

Texas (W, 20-19) and A&M (W, 24-20) ?

 

[EODVOL]

One could argue that we use our pass game to set up our run game. I Would love to know what our passing efficiency was in each of those games last year. The dude hasn't considered that last year was the first year in a new system, new QB, etc.

 

[tennesseeduke]

This must be the only intelligent human in the state, but he makes some really good points. Shut down our run game, and we tend to fold.

Now that being said, they are talking like Alabama’s D-Line is a different level than what we have played. LSU’s D-line was also supposed to be world beaters, but we cut through them like butter. It’s quite possible our O-line is much better than we are giving them credit for.

So, Tennessee obviously has a very good offensive system under Josh Heupel. They play fast, and they run a ton of plays. Hendon Hooker deserves his praise and rightfully so. He is the best QB Tennessee has had since Josh Dobbs, and he does a nice job within their offense. However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold. So far this season, Tennessee has faced the following rush defenses: Ball St (115th), Pittsburgh (42nd), Akron (116th), Florida (110th), and LSU (55th). Tennessee ran the ball for 218 on Ball St (59 Pts), 238 on Akron (63 Pts), 227 on UF (38 Pts), and 263 on LSU (40 pts). However, when they played Pittsburgh, they were held to 91 total rushing yards. Guess how many points they scored in regulation? 27 PTS.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "But that's one game." It is one game so far this season, so let's do some digging from last season.

Last year's Tennessee team, when Hooker officially became the full-time starter, had 2 games where their run game was held severely below their rushing average. Guess what two games those were? Georgia & Alabama. The results? Against UGA, they were held to 55 total rushing yards, and recorded 17 total points. Against Alabama, they were held to 65 total rushing yards, and only recorded 24 total points.

So, we have 3 games (UGA 2021, Bama 2021, and Pittsburgh 2022) where Tennessee's offense, when they faced a fairly good-elite rush defenses, hit a ceiling of about 27 points at most. The point of this post is Alabama currently ranks top 3 in terms of power 5 schools in rush defense this year in terms of YPC allowed. Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards, and they are allowing 3.90 YPC on the year. Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most. There's not a world where Tennessee throws for a country mile and doesn't even eclipse 100 yards rushing. Hendon Hooker cannot operate that offense against elite teams when he does not have an effective running game.

Hookers entire passing attack is predicated on play action/screen game.

According to PFF,

True drop back passing yards this season: 302 yds

Screen Yardage: 189 yds

Play Action Yardage: 941 Yds

If Hendon Hooker requires that much play action to be successful, our pass rush aka Cheetah Package, will have a field day. There simply won't be enough time every time to get quality plays off being that play action reliant against the best pass rush in CFB. This is not a good matchup for Tennessee, imo and I have not even mentioned them trotting out the 128th ranked pass defense in football either.

This cannot be from a Bama fan. They would not be able to put in number sequences etc...together. Blah Blah Blah. Bama fan can GTFO. Vols by 12 Saturday.

 

[tennesseeduke]

Bama's offense cannot score with ours. No defense can stop this offense. Maybe contain it. With no turnovers and minimal penalties, UT will score 40 on anybody. Our defense can hold teams under 30 we will win the game! That said, Vols 38 Bama 26

 

[SpookyAction]

Because Tennessee won’t game plan to pick up those blitz packages…

RBs picking up the blitz and pass protection may be the key to the game for UT.

 

[UT-Rex]

However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold.

Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards

RE: offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip

so, the analysis is predicated on the necessity for a strong UT run game, yet both Texas and A&M had only 79 and 70 rushing yards YET lost by only 5 Points combined (where 79 and 70 are fewer than the TN 91 rushing yds he cited vs Pitt),

that is, TN doesn't necessarily need a high net total of rushing yards to win this game.
--

1-point differential -- bama 20 vs. Texas 19

Texas - 79 rushing yds (bama 161)
Texas - 292 passing yds (bama 213)
TOTAL OFFENSE: Texas 371 (bama 374)

4-point differential -- bama 24 vs. A&M 20

A&M - 70 rushing yds (bama 288)
A&M - 253 passing yds (bama 111)
TOTAL OFFENSE: A&M 323 (bama 399 )

Bama had 2x and 4x total rushing yds YET won by only 1 and 4 points respectively.

 

[CINCYVOL]

Huepel dictates to the defense. He is able to call what he wants, when he wants with this O unit. Shovel pass on 4th down in LSU game was a fantastic call. I believe he’s one of the best since Spurrier. I’d take him over Lane, cause eventually Lane is going to Lane.

 

[Flipdaddy]

This must be the only intelligent human in the state, but he makes some really good points. Shut down our run game, and we tend to fold.

Now that being said, they are talking like Alabama’s D-Line is a different level than what we have played. LSU’s D-line was also supposed to be world beaters, but we cut through them like butter. It’s quite possible our O-line is much better than we are giving them credit for.

So, Tennessee obviously has a very good offensive system under Josh Heupel. They play fast, and they run a ton of plays. Hendon Hooker deserves his praise and rightfully so. He is the best QB Tennessee has had since Josh Dobbs, and he does a nice job within their offense. However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold. So far this season, Tennessee has faced the following rush defenses: Ball St (115th), Pittsburgh (42nd), Akron (116th), Florida (110th), and LSU (55th). Tennessee ran the ball for 218 on Ball St (59 Pts), 238 on Akron (63 Pts), 227 on UF (38 Pts), and 263 on LSU (40 pts). However, when they played Pittsburgh, they were held to 91 total rushing yards. Guess how many points they scored in regulation? 27 PTS.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "But that's one game." It is one game so far this season, so let's do some digging from last season.

Last year's Tennessee team, when Hooker officially became the full-time starter, had 2 games where their run game was held severely below their rushing average. Guess what two games those were? Georgia & Alabama. The results? Against UGA, they were held to 55 total rushing yards, and recorded 17 total points. Against Alabama, they were held to 65 total rushing yards, and only recorded 24 total points.

So, we have 3 games (UGA 2021, Bama 2021, and Pittsburgh 2022) where Tennessee's offense, when they faced a fairly good-elite rush defenses, hit a ceiling of about 27 points at most. The point of this post is Alabama currently ranks top 3 in terms of power 5 schools in rush defense this year in terms of YPC allowed. Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards, and they are allowing 3.90 YPC on the year. Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most. There's not a world where Tennessee throws for a country mile and doesn't even eclipse 100 yards rushing. Hendon Hooker cannot operate that offense against elite teams when he does not have an effective running game.

Hookers entire passing attack is predicated on play action/screen game.

According to PFF,

True drop back passing yards this season: 302 yds

Screen Yardage: 189 yds

Play Action Yardage: 941 Yds

If Hendon Hooker requires that much play action to be successful, our pass rush aka Cheetah Package, will have a field day. There simply won't be enough time every time to get quality plays off being that play action reliant against the best pass rush in CFB. This is not a good matchup for Tennessee, imo and I have not even mentioned them trotting out the 128th ranked pass defense in football either.

So all that we learned is that if you can’t run the football with success, it’s harder to move the ball down field and score? Alrighty then.

 

[first time caller]

This must be the only intelligent human in the state, but he makes some really good points. Shut down our run game, and we tend to fold.

Now that being said, they are talking like Alabama’s D-Line is a different level than what we have played. LSU’s D-line was also supposed to be world beaters, but we cut through them like butter. It’s quite possible our O-line is much better than we are giving them credit for.

So, Tennessee obviously has a very good offensive system under Josh Heupel. They play fast, and they run a ton of plays. Hendon Hooker deserves his praise and rightfully so. He is the best QB Tennessee has had since Josh Dobbs, and he does a nice job within their offense. However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold. So far this season, Tennessee has faced the following rush defenses: Ball St (115th), Pittsburgh (42nd), Akron (116th), Florida (110th), and LSU (55th). Tennessee ran the ball for 218 on Ball St (59 Pts), 238 on Akron (63 Pts), 227 on UF (38 Pts), and 263 on LSU (40 pts). However, when they played Pittsburgh, they were held to 91 total rushing yards. Guess how many points they scored in regulation? 27 PTS.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "But that's one game." It is one game so far this season, so let's do some digging from last season.

Last year's Tennessee team, when Hooker officially became the full-time starter, had 2 games where their run game was held severely below their rushing average. Guess what two games those were? Georgia & Alabama. The results? Against UGA, they were held to 55 total rushing yards, and recorded 17 total points. Against Alabama, they were held to 65 total rushing yards, and only recorded 24 total points.

So, we have 3 games (UGA 2021, Bama 2021, and Pittsburgh 2022) where Tennessee's offense, when they faced a fairly good-elite rush defenses, hit a ceiling of about 27 points at most. The point of this post is Alabama currently ranks top 3 in terms of power 5 schools in rush defense this year in terms of YPC allowed. Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards, and they are allowing 3.90 YPC on the year. Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most. There's not a world where Tennessee throws for a country mile and doesn't even eclipse 100 yards rushing. Hendon Hooker cannot operate that offense against elite teams when he does not have an effective running game.

Hookers entire passing attack is predicated on play action/screen game.

According to PFF,

True drop back passing yards this season: 302 yds

Screen Yardage: 189 yds

Play Action Yardage: 941 Yds

If Hendon Hooker requires that much play action to be successful, our pass rush aka Cheetah Package, will have a field day. There simply won't be enough time every time to get quality plays off being that play action reliant against the best pass rush in CFB. This is not a good matchup for Tennessee, imo and I have not even mentioned them trotting out the 128th ranked pass defense in football either.

Man, wish I had never read this...

 

[Dudleys87]

RBs picking up the blitz and pass protection may be the key to the game for UT.

Yes, and quick reads.

 

[CR-vol]

Read an article earlier that our defense ranks #22 in the nation at 17.8 points allowed per game. Other stats get taken out of context but that's actually one that tells a story all of its own.

 

[livefaith]

There's a zero percent chance he's 100%

It's often better to have a starter like this @ 80% etc. Seems like it throws the team off, and coaches have to make mid game changes they don't want to make. Almost better to roll w healthy back up and give him all the reps that week.
We NEED to take advantage of this.

 

[livefaith]

Not being rude intentionally but have you listened or watched anyone break down Heupel's O and philosophy?

UT takes unusually large splits in addition to running fast. Those two things work together. D's have to show quickly whether they're stacking the box or giving help on receivers. Some teams like LSU apparently like to disguise their D pre-snap. UT's tempo prevents that to a great degree. D's barely have time to line up much less shift or line up in exotic ways. That's another thing UT's tempo inhibits in a team like Bama. Bama likes doing exotic things in their D front. You have to have time to call your play and get lined up properly to do that.

I hope Heupel doesn't give them time to breath.

If Bama decides to take away the run and commit more to the pass rush then UT will try to take advantage of single coverage, screens, slants, etc. Trips to one side with safety help over the top essentially guarantees that your guy to the boundary on the other side gets man to man if they go 6 in the box. UT also has some ability to dictate an opponent NOT put 7 in the box. Have you noticed them motioning the wing back out? With 7 in the box, someone has to either go with that TE or else you have two blockers on 2 DB's and a quick screen to a WR outside the numbers. IIRC, that's pretty much how UT toasted UK on that first screen pass TD last year.

This hi speed offense can neutralize superior talent. Although, they have depth galore so we shalls see.

 

[JoAllan]

That's a damn good analysis, honestly.

Not exactly

Sometimes you got to look just a bit deeper.

LSU’s run D was 25th before they played Tennessee. That was the best run D Tennessee has faced……….and they put 263 on them…….in their own house.

The Pitt game was the worst game Tennessee played by far, and they made many mistakes…….poor running was simply one part of that bad game.

 

[VolPack22]

It’s all about turnovers imo. As long as we play a clean game there isn’t a defense in the country that can stop this offense from scoring 30+ points.

 

[Jravol78]

HOLY CRAP!

I always heard that the University of Alabama had a Ph.D. program. And I was always like, "okay, so where is the Ph.D?"

This must be him! This is the PhD for the University of Alabama. We found him!


[lol seriously, that's a good post by him. good analysis. I'm thankful he doesn't work for Nick]

EDIT for a serious p.s.: We'll see your Bama PhD and raise you an SJT. We have our expert analysts too, Bama. So there. Heh.

UA’s PHD program is actually part of their agricultural curriculum . Stands for Post Hole Digger and it’s where you learn how to build a proper fence
to keep the sheep from getting away from you just as you are becoming acquainted .

 

[VolDave53]

Josh Pate addresses some of the premises reflected in the OP's post.

[VIDEO=]]

 

[xpsyclonex2002]

.

 

[xpsyclonex2002]

I hate to admit it but he is spot on. That's not to say we won't win, but if we lose, it's more likely due to the scenario he's describing. He's no Nostradamus. Hellen Keller could have watched us play and came up with the same analysis.

 

[vegasvolfan]

This must be the only intelligent human in the state, but he makes some really good points. Shut down our run game, and we tend to fold.

Now that being said, they are talking like Alabama’s D-Line is a different level than what we have played. LSU’s D-line was also supposed to be world beaters, but we cut through them like butter. It’s quite possible our O-line is much better than we are giving them credit for.

So, Tennessee obviously has a very good offensive system under Josh Heupel. They play fast, and they run a ton of plays. Hendon Hooker deserves his praise and rightfully so. He is the best QB Tennessee has had since Josh Dobbs, and he does a nice job within their offense. However, I think people are missing what actually makes their offense successful and I'm not so sure it's solely Hendon Hooker's ability to throw the football as most people believe.

What I have found is Tennessee's offense functions really well when they are able to run the football at a good clip and when they cannot run the football, their offense reaches a certain threshold. So far this season, Tennessee has faced the following rush defenses: Ball St (115th), Pittsburgh (42nd), Akron (116th), Florida (110th), and LSU (55th). Tennessee ran the ball for 218 on Ball St (59 Pts), 238 on Akron (63 Pts), 227 on UF (38 Pts), and 263 on LSU (40 pts). However, when they played Pittsburgh, they were held to 91 total rushing yards. Guess how many points they scored in regulation? 27 PTS.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "But that's one game." It is one game so far this season, so let's do some digging from last season.

Last year's Tennessee team, when Hooker officially became the full-time starter, had 2 games where their run game was held severely below their rushing average. Guess what two games those were? Georgia & Alabama. The results? Against UGA, they were held to 55 total rushing yards, and recorded 17 total points. Against Alabama, they were held to 65 total rushing yards, and only recorded 24 total points.

So, we have 3 games (UGA 2021, Bama 2021, and Pittsburgh 2022) where Tennessee's offense, when they faced a fairly good-elite rush defenses, hit a ceiling of about 27 points at most. The point of this post is Alabama currently ranks top 3 in terms of power 5 schools in rush defense this year in terms of YPC allowed. Pittsburgh held Tennessee to 91 total rushing yards, and they are allowing 3.90 YPC on the year. Alabama is a whole other tier better than that. We are allowing 2.39 YPC on the year. So, if Alabama's rush defense is truly an elite unit, and I truly believe it is, this Tennessee offense has a ceiling of 27 points at most. There's not a world where Tennessee throws for a country mile and doesn't even eclipse 100 yards rushing. Hendon Hooker cannot operate that offense against elite teams when he does not have an effective running game.

Hookers entire passing attack is predicated on play action/screen game.

According to PFF,

True drop back passing yards this season: 302 yds

Screen Yardage: 189 yds

Play Action Yardage: 941 Yds

If Hendon Hooker requires that much play action to be successful, our pass rush aka Cheetah Package, will have a field day. There simply won't be enough time every time to get quality plays off being that play action reliant against the best pass rush in CFB. This is not a good matchup for Tennessee, imo and I have not even mentioned them trotting out the 128th ranked pass defense in football either.

I have already said that all this hoopla about being back may be put to rest between the Bama and Georgia games. I would imagine that we will have to use our tight ends and running backs a lot more this game to block and throw a lot more screen passes, slants, etc. Hoker will need more designed runs, which can risk injury. Basically this will keep their linebackers a little more honest and account for them as well. It will also keep their DL a little more honest because they will be moving from side to side and should take a little more out of their tank. I can see some plays where Hooker runs to the side, avoiding sacks, buying time for his receivers to get open down field and throwing down field too. What would he great is our OL just dominates. Then we will know we are back. That said, what did the other teams do this year to keep Bama honest. I know in the Texas game, Bama just made too many mistakes.

 

[TennesseeTarheel]

I'm thinking they've been game planning every team on our schedule since before the season started. Updating each week as the variables change. Finalizing their macro planning down to micro managing it by the entire staff on the actual game week per opponent.

I believe that's true.

 

[LieutenantNeyland]

What makes the offense good is that its actually really simple RPO. They only run about a handful of plays that have a few variants. QB learns it then makes the adjustments during the game. Just run it quick and it is hard to defend.

Correct me if I am wrong UT hasn't gone all gimmicky yet this year have they?

Also, correct me if I am wrong. I played soccer.

You are wrong sir, you actually didn’t play soccer.