Its (still) the economy, stupid.

#27
#27
Yeah, a windfall profit tax will lower gas prices AND put more gas in your car. Great idea.

As for the bible and the U.S., I' certainly no theologian, but it doesn't mention the U.S. specifically, and a lot of people take that to mean the U.S. will no longer be around by the end times. But, it's kind of hard to understand everything in Revelations, at least for me.
 
#29
#29
lawgator1 said:
I see today that stocks are down again, my 401 k shrinking daily while prices go up and up and up. Most people I know owe more on their house now than its worth. Gas thievery is becoming a sport here in Orlando. Crime is through the roof. Starbucks is closing 600 U.S. stores. The dollar is close to free-fall.

Economic woes are probably the best bet the Democrats have to win more seats in the Congress and the White House.
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But a lot of people got a $600 dollar stimulus check, things are fine lawgator.
 
#32
#32
lawgator1 said:
The irony of your comment is that, by the time of the election, 95 % of the electorate will realize that drilling in Anwar and off the Gulf coast, by itself, would drop the price of a gallon of gas by about 20 cents .... 15 years from now.
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ridiculous. an increase in future oil supply would clearly drop the oil price today. especially if it is domestic. just think about the balance of payments.


as for the economy. anyone who thinks that the president can have a significant effect on the economy (sans obama-like depression-inducing tax increases) needs to take econ 101.

and the overwhelming majority of americans do not owe more on their house than it is worth.
 
#35
#35
Oh boy.

lawgator1 said:
The irony of your comment is that, by the time of the election, 95 % of the electorate will realize that drilling in Anwar and off the Gulf coast, by itself, would drop the price of a gallon of gas by about 20 cents .... 15 years from now.

This is not a fact, it is one analysis of the situation. Conditions will vary so much between now and then that any such prediction is pure speculation. What not drilling does guarantee is that large domestic sources of oil will not be tapped.

If we want the price to come down short-term, we need to:

1) Deal with a weakening dollar, and right now.

2) Regulate futures commodities in oil trading. (Even saying we are going to do that will kill off some of the steam there).

3) Stabilize the situation between Israel and Iran.

4) Announce bold new objectives for reduction in use of oil as an energy source (again, the announcement alone affects the speculators).

5) Consider a windfalls tax on Big Oil. They'll bitch, but they'll happily pay a few percentage points to look like they are helping out and, again, the perception is the key to the futures traders.

I think BPV covered the others but this one is a doozy. How in the world does this lower gasoline prices?

6) Announce goals for improved refining and transportation, realistic ones for a few years out.
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#36
#36
lawvol. why don't the government just take over the oil industry. i bet that would solve our oil crisis.

lawgator, if the oil companies wrote a check to the government in the total amount of their profits. do you really think our oil prices will go down? will that check suddenly produce more oil? will that check produce more oil next July? or 2 years from now? or six months from now? i doubt it.
 
#38
#38
Fine Vol said:
I told you Id pay you back. I gave it to some poor people down the road. They said they are getting a job soon.:)
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Soon isn't soon enough...I want $700 in return FV. :). I just love those words Give and Gave. Give me, give me, give me. :realmad:
 
#39
#39
IMO the majority of incumbents are going to lose in the next election, particularly the Republicans. People are unhappy with the money being spent on the Iraq war when the economy in this country is in recession. They blame the Republicans for the Iraq War. There will be a lot of new faces in Congress IMO.
 
#40
#40
droski said:
ridiculous. an increase in future oil supply would clearly drop the oil price today. especially if it is domestic. just think about the balance of payments.


as for the economy. anyone who thinks that the president can have a significant effect on the economy (sans obama-like depression-inducing tax increases) needs to take econ 101.

and the overwhelming majority of americans do not owe more on their house than it is worth.
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Talk of opening up more U.S. sites isn't going to change the price of a barrel of oil anytime soon. The production itself would be many years away and the speculators realize that.

And while I agree that policy-making by the president does not affect the economy directly, certainly Obama announcing that he is setting these goals and looking at legislation, along with the fact that he will have a cooperative Congress, I would think has a greater chance of moving the markets than would McCain, with a hostile Congress, saying he thinks that in 15 years we can get a tiny percentage of our national use out of Alaska.





joevol320 said:
lawvol. why don't the government just take over the oil industry. i bet that would solve our oil crisis.

lawgator, if the oil companies wrote a check to the government in the total amount of their profits. do you really think our oil prices will go down? will that check suddenly produce more oil? will that check produce more oil next July? or 2 years from now? or six months from now? i doubt it.
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Its not that their paying the tax directly affects the price of oil. Its the perception that the change from a big oil-friendly administration to one more hostile to those companies is finally going to take action that is important.

I saw an Exxon executive on Larry King the other day. His retort to questions about $40 billion in profit in a single quarter is that their margin of profit, as a percentage, is in line with other industries. While true academically, and while defensible from the perspective of return on investment, in real dollars it doesn;t make sense to every day consumers now making hard choices between lifestyle and transportation.

Big oil is blaming speculators and speculators are blaming China and India. The Saudis are blaming everyone else but themselves.

I am not for nationalizing the oil industry, not the refineries, not anything. But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.
 
#41
#41
Its not that their paying the tax directly affects the price of oil. Its the perception that the change from a big oil-friendly administration to one more hostile to those companies is finally going to take action that is important.

I saw an Exxon executive on Larry King the other day. His retort to questions about $40 billion in profit in a single quarter is that their margin of profit, as a percentage, is in line with other industries. While true academically, and while defensible from the perspective of return on investment, in real dollars it doesn;t make sense to every day consumers now making hard choices between lifestyle and transportation.

Big oil is blaming speculators and speculators are blaming China and India. The Saudis are blaming everyone else but themselves.

I am not for nationalizing the oil industry, not the refineries, not anything. But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.



i know what your saying. most people don't understand the economics. i think the oil companies should be more aggressive to explain that it's a matter of supply and demand.

remember in the 90's when gas was 80 cents a gallon, the oil companies were barely breaking even and many smaller oil companies went out of business because the supply was so great and they couldn't make any money.

the fact is that we need more oil to get prices cheapers but there is no indication it's going to happen, i'd say by football season gas will almost 4.50-5.00.

i wonder how much it's going to affect football attendance this year?
 
#42
#42
lawgator1 said:
But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.
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I don't care for these people.
 
#43
#43
lawgator1 said:
Talk of opening up more U.S. sites isn't going to change the price of a barrel of oil anytime soon. The production itself would be many years away and the speculators realize that.
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of course it would. what happens when people know the price of their goods will drop in the future? they sell more now. what do you think that would do to the price today? anyone that argues a massive domestic supply of crude 5-10 years from now wouldn't affect the price today just doesn't understand market dynamics.
 
#44
#44
I hope there is a reserve 3X the size of Saudi just east of Memphis but everything I've read says that even with drilling and tar sanding all over the U.S., the impact would be less than $.25 reduction.

I think we need to revert to an agrarian society, eat lots of watermelons and chase those farmer's daughters! We would be too happily preoccupied to burn fossil fuel.
 
#45
#45
Plano Vol said:
I hope there is a reserve 3X the size of Saudi just east of Memphis but everything I've read says that even with drilling and tar sanding all over the U.S., the impact would be less than $.25 reduction.

I think we need to revert to an agrarian society, eat lots of watermelons and chase those farmer's daughters! We would be too happily preoccupied to burn fossil fuel.
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Watermelon is nature's viagra!
 
#46
#46
droski said:
of course it would. what happens when people know the price of their goods will drop in the future? they sell more now. what do you think that would do to the price today? anyone that argues a massive domestic supply of crude 5-10 years from now wouldn't affect the price today just doesn't understand market dynamics.
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or is a Washington democrat politician with a vested interest in making sure that prices remain high so that GW Bush can be blamed and thus ensure a democrat is elected POTUS.
 
#47
#47
droski said:
of course it would. what happens when people know the price of their goods will drop in the future? they sell more now. what do you think that would do to the price today? anyone that argues a massive domestic supply of crude 5-10 years from now wouldn't affect the price today just doesn't understand market dynamics.
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I thought I read that the estimated reserves of U.S. oil would be roughly two years' worth for U.S. demand, total. Is that right?

Do you know what the reserves are or how much they would affect the per barrel price of oil? Seen any objective estimates on that?
 
#48
#48
lawgator1 said:
I thought I read that the estimated reserves of U.S. oil would be roughly two years' worth for U.S. demand, total. Is that right?

Do you know what the reserves are or how much they would affect the per barrel price of oil? Seen any objective estimates on that?
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depends who you listen to. some say there isn't much, others say it is as much as the sauidi's reserve. either way it certainly will have SOME effect. domestic oil because of balance of payments is worth twice what foreign oil is when it comes to the crude price. and considering there hasn't been a single US based oil spill from deep water drilling I think we can take the chance.
 
#49
#49
lawgator1 said:
I am not for nationalizing the oil industry, not the refineries, not anything. But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.
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In a capitalist economy you can't argue whether it's justified. Maybe in your very French thinking you can justify a mere 10% return for the oil drilling risk and all of the political risk, but in a capitalist system, that return is meager and held there artificially by gov't regulation. There is no real argument as to whether they can charge for their products. There is a debate about socializing the industry and it's a ridiculous IMO, but about market driven entrepreneurial profit there is no discussion to be had.
 
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