job creation

[BigPapaVol]

actually most economists estimate you need 350K+ job growth the seriously impact the unemployment number

Or more.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

 

[KB5252]

all things considered it's a positive sign.

The jobless percentage (to the extent it is accurate) is the bigger issue though. As the pop. grows there is job growth (in general) but if the absolute job growth is less than pop growth then the % unemployed grows - this is the source of costs.

Bottomline, I'm more concerned about unemployment %'s.

I agree with both points, I just hope it's a long term trend.

 

[droski]

Or more.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

yeah some go as high as 450K. arguing this is massive job growth ignores history.

 

[paul1454]

all things considered it's a positive sign.

The jobless percentage (to the extent it is accurate) is the bigger issue though. As the pop. grows there is job growth (in general) but if the absolute job growth is less than pop growth then the % unemployed grows - this is the source of costs.

Bottomline, I'm more concerned about unemployment %'s.

Agreed. I am surprised, however, how many people try to write off the positives like they are nothing. Since January, employment has increased by 1,663,000 jobs, which is the largest four-month job increase in exactly ten years, going back to a 2.7 million four-month employment increase in the first four months of 2000. Sure, some of the rise in the numbers were census workers. However, while the Census accounted for roughly 60,000 jobs in the April report, about 230,000 new jobs were from the private sector. That isn't phenomenal, but certainly encouraging.

Moreover, while the unemployment rate went up to 9.9 percent in April from 9.7 percent in March, must of this has been attributed to more discouraged workers reentering the workforce. Most importantly, however, the reasons I tend to think the recent numbers are a positive sign is because both temporary hiring and overtime payroll numbers have significantly increased. In particular, average manufacturing overtime hours increased to 3.9 hours in April, reaching the highest level in almost two years, since May 2008. In addition, the number of temporary workers increased in April by 26,200 to 2,054,700 employees, the highest level since November 2008, 17 months ago. The 330,300 increase in temporary jobs since the September-low is the largest 7-month increase since this data series started in 1990. These figures are important because in the early stages of economic recovery it makes sense for cautious employers to both increase temporary hiring and increase overtime hours of existing workers. As the economy stabilizes and expands and employers become more confident there will be broader hiring for permanent workers.

Now, I will add that despite the recent improvement, we still have a long way to go. We have only made up a small share of the more than 8 million jobs that were lost to the recession, not to mention the jobs that we would have created for our growing population had the economy not fallen into recession. At our current pace, it will take 7 years to get back to prerecession numbers. If these numbers increase to 350K per month, that only moves up to 4 years. I'd sure like to think we can swing back before 2014.

 

[BigPapaVol]

600k of that 1.6 million is census jobs. 1 million over the course of 4 months isn't a particularly large number when the gov't has been ramping furiously. Private job creation is very limited.

We have to start somewhere, but it's not like we came out of the box roaring.

 

[paul1454]

600k of that 1.6 million is census jobs. 1 million over the course of 4 months isn't a particularly large number when the gov't has been ramping furiously. Private job creation is very limited.

We have to start somewhere, but it's not like we came out of the box roaring.

I'm with you. I'm not trying to say we are well on our way by any means. I was just pointing out that to say the recent numbers aren't positive is a bit of a stretch. However, we still have a LONG way to go (like I alluded to in my last paragraph).

 

[tigervol9802]

600k of that 1.6 million is census jobs. 1 million over the course of 4 months isn't a particularly large number when the gov't has been ramping furiously. Private job creation is very limited.

We have to start somewhere, but it's not like we came out of the box roaring.

I guess my questions is and always has been is what it has cost been worth the amount of jobs created?

In the long run.....it's hard to say it is.

 

[Oldvol75]

600k of that 1.6 million is census jobs. 1 million over the course of 4 months isn't a particularly large number when the gov't has been ramping furiously. Private job creation is very limited.

We have to start somewhere, but it's not like we came out of the box roaring.

Actually saw some of the temporary census workers today! They were dining in a Huddle House.

 

[Cash Vallin]

Only that which is questionable. I asked a question and you referred an article you didn't even post which countered your rosy outlook for the future. Later you backtracked because it was pointed out how premature any notion of a serious rebound was not in evidence to this point.

Wow, you mean news organizations slant the news to fit their ideals.......who would have known?

I didn't backtrack on anything... I've said all along this is a positive sign. It could be the first step toward recovery. Both the article and video said essentially the same thing. Show me where I said this meant the economy recovered?