Jobs report

#51
#51
Orange_Crush said:
If you give up and stop trying to find a job for 4 weeks, you are taken out of the statistics, which is what several of us here have alluded to in the statistics. They are not reporting the # of Americans that are unemployed. They have designed the statistics to not take into account the people who are long-term unemployed and have given up. A look at those numbers gives a better indication of Obama's turnaround.
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That seems odd to me. Not saying you're wrong about it, but it's a weird way to count/divide numbers.
 
#52
#52
DC_Vol said:
I believe it's as simple as telling the census worker you are not employed and no longer searching for work? But not 100% sure.
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I don't think they need the census. The Unemployment office has those stats, since you have to be looking for work to get unemployment. You have to prove you've looked for work. If you stop looking for work, they know.
 
#55
#55
Velo Vol said:
Pretty much in line with where things were a decade ago.

EmployYoYJune2014.jpg
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so then why say "take that haters" if it is in line with a decade ago.

It was a good report but it's no more relatively historic than the Q1 negative GDP was.

All in all, we've been muddling along since the recession. Q2 will look good relative to Q1 but CY14 will end up being another "meh" year.
 
#56
#56
Kingston Vol said:
How does one *officially* get out of the work force? Serious question.
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For purposes of the employment report, I don't think there's an actual hard count of employed/unemployed.

Most of this is estimated based on data from a number of sources.
 
#57
#57
volinbham said:
All in all, we've been muddling along since the recession. Q2 will look good relative to Q1 but CY14 will end up being another "meh" year.
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I think "muddling" is the new normal. I'll be surprised if we see job growth (at least in % terms) that we saw in parts of the 80s and 90s anytime soon.

The global and American economy has changed.
 
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#58
#58
The jobs report is bogus sand always has been, imo. I do know that business has really picked up in a couple of sectors I do business with.

Note: a large of the business I handle is exported.
 
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#59
#59
The economy is built on debt. It will not muddle along forever. It will need to rid itself of this debt that is getting more and more unsustainable. We will eventually suffer a "crack up boom" as Mises described it and nothing under the Sun is going to prevent it. That part of us that needs this security is the same part of us that manifests itself in statism, progressivism, socialism, etc. It is a mental defect in us as humans that causes societies to evolve in cycles where they eventually crash on their own weight and then start anew. It is where you have an ever and ever smaller segment of society carrying the weight of society. The elite statists who are the epitome of this component in us that needs this security are the ones who are most effective at positioning themselves at the apex of this movement and manipulating this "weakness" in society. Government is never big enough for them because this trait manifests itself most strongly in them and they can't see it but it is a trait that is evident to some degree in us all. It is about the human need for security. Conservatism is the opposite. It manifests itself in the ideas regarding liberty, freedom, independence, speculation, chance. It is how the free market is born. Far away from the idea of security. Again, we all have both of these traits in us but the statists are more dominated by this idea of security and the conservatives are dominated by the idea of freedom. It is odd that this trait that needs the security is the trait that eventually causes our doom.
 
#60
#60
CNCVol88 said:
Septic already came in sarcastically but I'm gonna say it anyway.


So you're telling me that its summer, a time when employers typically hire a lot of young people, and employers are hiring? Tell me more great litigator.
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So any increase in jobs from June through August is due to temporary summer jobs.

And hiring from October through December is related to the holidays.

Lol that leaves a very small window for economic growth.
 
#61
#61
Velo Vol said:
I think "muddling" is the new normal. I'll be surprised if we see job growth (at least in % terms) that we saw in parts of the 80s and 90s anytime soon.

The global and American economy has changed.
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Not sure I agree with this.
 
#62
#62
lawgator1 said:
"Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is now 6.1%, down from 6.3% in May. The drop came for the right reasons: More Americans said they had jobs, plus more people joined the labor force.

Another encouraging sign: pay is on the rise. Hourly wages ticked up 0.2% in June and are up 2% in the past 12 months.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said she wants to see wages rising faster than inflation. If average Americans see their buying power rise, that could boost consumer spending -- the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy."
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I'm not impressed by this load of crap.....

Record Number of Americans Not in Labor Force in June | CNS News
 
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#63
#63
How anyone......democrat or republican can support this administration is beyond me. The market is up but printing money will do that.....
 
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#65
#65
I would propose that the economy is picking up and companies are hiring in advance of the perceived take over of BOTH houses by conservatives.
 
#67
#67
volinbham said:
Not sure I agree with this.
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Go back a decade to the so-called "Bush boom." We had a supposedly good tax policy (Bush tax cuts) + the largest debt-financed consumer spending spree that we will probably see in a couple generations (the housing bubble).

And despite that there were only six months (out of eight years) where there was >300,000 jobs created.

In 1994 alone, there were seven such months (with a smaller population).

Why?
 
#68
#68
Velo Vol said:
Go back a decade to the so-called "Bush boom." We had a supposedly good tax policy (Bush tax cuts) + the largest debt-financed consumer spending spree that we will probably see in a couple generations (the housing bubble).

And despite that there were only six months (out of eight years) where there was >300,000 jobs created.

In 1994 alone, there were seven such months (with a smaller population).

Why?
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Debt is like a drug to the economy. It's great at first but then becomes this weight. More and more has less impact until you wind up dead. Same with debt and the economy. Debt started kicking into hyper drive in the 90's. Now we're at $17 trillion in public debt and two or three times that in private debt and we have more people unemployed than since the last Great Depression. There is no way this country will ever make the commitment to pay it off. The GDP is running at about $3 trillion and we're still going in debt about a trillion per year. We have to cut spending by 25% just to stop adding to the debt and that is assuming interest rates stay low. The only way to do this is to substantially cut entitlements but how is that going to happen?
 
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#69
#69
T-TownVol said:
I would propose that the economy is picking up and companies are hiring in advance of the perceived take over of BOTH houses by conservatives.
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No I think you're wrong. I think it is a last gasp. How this will play out is when the conservatives win the election or before the markets will realize the party is over. But the Republicans will get blamed for the down turn and not 100 years of progressivism and entitlements that ended in this massive debt bubble. This will be the mother of all down turns. Sorry to rain on your parade.

P.S.-But as I said earlier this defect or need for security that causes us to walk off the cliff like lemmings is in all of us-conservatives and liberals alike. Republicans have been guilty of profligate spending also just not as egregious as Democrats. The entitlement (need for security) has done us in.
 
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#70
#70
Just one more preaching segment I promise. This debt bubble is much much larger than the one in 1929. Therefore the coming deflation or contraction of this debt bubble should be substantially more severe than the one in 1929. I know some of you will say well its a modern economy. And, what happened in 1929 can't happen now. I will tell you nothing has changed or different than what occurred in the past and man is destined to continually repeat the same mistakes and act according to his nature. And, the same thing will happen now that happen before like the Roman Empire fell on its own weight, or the Mayan Civilization, or Babylon or China. How long did it take China to recover from the civilization that built the Great Wall? Nothing under the Sun can stop it. It's our nature. Preaching over.
 
#71
#71
Sandvol said:
Just one more preaching segment I promise. This debt bubble is much much larger than the one in 1929. Therefore the coming deflation or contraction of this debt bubble should be substantially more severe than the one in 1929. I know some of you will say well its a modern economy. And, what happened in 1929 can't happen now. I will tell you nothing has changed or different than what occurred in the past and man is destined to continually repeat the same mistakes and act according to his nature. And, the same thing will happen now that happen before like the Roman Empire fell on its own weight, or the Mayan Civilization, or Babylon or China. How long did it take China to recover from the civilization that built the Great Wall? Nothing under the Sun can stop it. It's our nature. Preaching over.
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Except that household debt (which is a much larger piece of the economy than public debt) has decreased pretty significantly over the past five years.

FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
 
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