I bet on the Derby every year and usually cash about once every three years. With up to 20 three year olds, many of whom are just coming into or out of form, its not an easy race to handicap.
A couple of tips for the Derby betting novice. First, try to get a handle on the speed of this race. Several years ago, it seemed like the race was divided into two distinct camps -- early speed and deep closers, with not a lot in between. As the saying goes, pace makes the race. And in those years, the speedsters burned each other out and the deep closers came home for the top spots.
I have not paid close attention to this year's field and so I don't know the nature of the pace here. But I have noticed in the last few years that the winner is tending to be on the lead, or just off of it, in the early going. It is certainly an advantage to have tactical speed to avoid traffic troubles.
So take a look at the racing form and make an estimate of whether there are five or six horses all of whom must have the lead to run. If so, the closers are worth looking at.
Next, pay very close attention to the works and the comments of track obervers in the week before the race. These are young and erratic horses. They often simply run like they look. If they get to Churchill Downs coming from their home track and they aren't used to the changes, it will show. They will be lethargic and washed out. Pay attention when the track observers tell you that someone looked sharp and at ease. It makes a difference.
Next, avoid the wise guy pick. Every year, about 3-4 days before the race, all of the experts start to talk about some unknown that they have reasoned stands a good chance. Its always a horse at a decent price, usually morning line 20 to 1 who goes off at 8 to 1 because of the experts.... and he stinks up the joint.
Last, if you have a hunch, bet a bunch!